MARKETBEAT OFFICE SECTOR Q2 2017.
OFFICE SECTOR MARKETBEAT OFFICE SECTOR Q2 2017 RESULTS
ОФИСНЫЙ СЕКТОР Offer New spaces commissioning dynamics By the results of the first half of 2017 the total market volume of quality office real estate in St. Petersburg has exceeded 2.5 million sq m Nearly 43 000 sq m of quality office spaces were commissioned in the first quarter of 2017, against 160 000 sq m with comparable period of the last year. According to our forecasts, the total market volume will increase to 135 000 sq. m. (already commissioned projects are included in this number) until the end of 2017 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 230 1 100 290 110 130 90 1 330 1 420 1 550 1 660 217 1 950 163 2 167 215 2 330 43 2 545 The new offer will be reduced by more than 80 000 sq m compared to the results of the end of 2016, the new trend of commissioning of the objects with 100% occupancy is continuing. 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017П Объем предложения на начало года Прирост Key office projects commissioned in 1Q 2017 Offer structure Name Class Total area Graffiti В 16 000 Polis В 13 000 Senator (Bpolshaya Morskaya) A 7 235 Ekaterininsky А 7 160 Key office projects commissioning at the end of 2017 Name Class Total area Premier League В 18 000 Senator (Chapaeva, 2 turn) A 23 884 Riverside В+ 18 000 Ponomarev A 12 000 Renaissance business Park (Built to suit) А 20 930 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% 0% 82% 73% 71% 71% 70% 70% 66% 61% 59% 5 56% 39% 41% 43% 44% 2 29% 29% 30% 30% 34% 18% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017П Доля класса А Доля класса В/В+
ОФИСНЫЙ СЕКТОР Demand The structure of demand according to the tenants industry For the end of the first half of 2017, the total volume of net absorption amounted to 60 000 sq m, which is lower in 2 times if to compare with the same period in 2016. The relatively high rate of net absorption is due to the fact that many projects had close to 100% occupancy rate before commissioning IT sector demonstrated the high activity in the second half of 2017 The major transaction for 1st half of 2017 is leasing of 10 000 sq m in the "Megapark" office center. The "MegaFon" company leased 6,000 sqm in the office center "Smolenskiy" on the Ural Street., 4. Нефть / Газ IT и телекоммуникации Строительство Банки / Финансы Торговые компании Производственные компании B2B Другие 6% 6% 8% 12% 9% 32% Vacancy rate The vacancy rate in the high quality office centers is continuing to decline from the end of 2016, due to a shortage of a new speculative offer. Average vacancy rate in the first quarter of 2017 was about 8%, for comparison, at the end of 2016, the figure was 9%. The vacancy rate in class A equals to 10% against 12% by the results of 2016. The vacancy rate in B class also decreased to 5% and by the end of 2016 the vacancy level in the B class was 5.5%. We expect that current vacancy rates will decline against the backdrop of the high demand and limited commissioning of the new premises. Dynamics of absorption and vacancy level 35% 30% 25% 15% 10% 5% 0% 24% 31% 22% 18% 1 16% 16% 16% 14% 12% 8% 10% 9% 8% 5,5% 5% 223 90 105 123 195 150 205 140 190 160 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017П Поглощение Уровень вакансии класс А Уровень вакансии класс В/В+ 250 200 150 100 50 0
ОФИСНЫЙ СЕКТОР Rental rates In the first quarter of 2017 the average rental rates declared for office space demonstrated growth compared to the beginning of the year. So, rental rates increased to 3% for A class; in the B class segment class rates rose for 5%. Now the average rental rates for A class office spaces amount to 1 520 rubles per sq m per month, including VAT and operating expenses. In В/В+ class offices spaces rates amount to 1 075 rubles per sq m per month, including VAT and operating expenses. The geographical distribution of rates level has not changed the leaders are still Moscovsky, Petrogradsky and Central districts. Trends and forecasts The geographical distribution of rental and vacancy rates District Average rate Vacancy level Primorsky 1 100 12% Petrogradsky 1 600 4,5% Vasileostrovsky 1 150 Admiralteysky 1 500 6% Kirovsky 880 18% Moscovsky 1 600 4% Viborgsky 1 070 13% Kalininsky 1 120 15% Krasnogvardeysky 1 000 1 Central 1 620 5% Nevsky 900 1 Frunzensky 950 16% Динамика ставок аренды 1 600 1 400 The tendency of commissioning of the objects with close to the maximum rate occupancy is continuing. We are expecting that the demand for quality office space will exceed supply until the end of 2017. At the moment the demand exceeds supply in Moscovsky and Petrogradsky districts: the number of major applications are more than the available space. The highest demand here is for 1000 sq m offices. We are expecting that the number of large transactions will increase up to 20 000 sqm and the absorption level will reach 160 000 sq. until the end of 2017. 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 - Ставки аренды Класс А Ставки аренды Класс В/В+
КОНТАКТЫ КОНТАКТЫ 194044, 26 Liteyniy prospekt Saint-Petersburg Business-Center «Preobrazhensky Dvor» +7 (812) 748-22-38 info@ipg-estate.ru www.ipg-estate.ru