Residential Development Land: Supply Side Dynamics and Policy Implications Presentation to Northern Ireland NAMA Committee Professor Jim Berry Dr Martin Haran Monday 8 th September 2014
Research Contextualisation Profile residential development land holdings held by seven contributing banks across Northern Ireland in respect of location, planning status and density of the development pipeline as at the end of June 2014. Supply side dynamics assessed relative to residential property market dynamics within spatial housing sub-markets across Northern Ireland. Understanding sub-market connotations and supply-demand dynamics imperative in terms of: Determining the Viability of Landholdings Informing phasing/timing of project commencement Mobilising the Land Supply Pipeline Identifying Opportunities for Public-Private Supply collaborations Informing/Guiding future land zonings and lending decisions
Land Holdings by Planning Status Planning Zoned All Contributing Banks Unzoned Unclassified Total June 2012 4,384.1 1,867.6 4,525.5 825.5 11,602.9 June 2014 2091 2137 5922 0 10,147 Planning Zoned NAMA Portfolio Unzoned Unclassified Total June 2012 1,541.6 649.3 311.0 0 2,501.9 June 2014 52.7 1208.7 2015.2 0 3276
Emerging Policy Issues: Housing Land Availability Transparency in the potential land available for housing is essential evidence for decision making and planning policy. Links to the debate concerning housing growth indicators and policy decisions. Policy concerning the need to continue with HGIs as a monitoring instrument. Spatial dimension of HGIs at District Council level in terms of local housing market strategies and plans. Access to land at competitive market value to facilitate bringing forward housing development.
Emerging Policy Issues: Housing Supply Key issues concerning the current rate of housing supply include: The level and pattern in the shortfall of new supply. The supply of affordable/social housing. The current under-performance of housing associations in delivering new supply. Relationship between housing demand, supply and the outworking of the planning decisions on the zoning of land. Implications for the new local government authorities.
Emerging Policy Issues: Alleviating Housing Stress Alleviating housing stress is a key social policy issue in Northern Ireland Impact of economic downturn and turmoil in the private housing market has accentuated levels of housing stress. An uneven spatial pattern of housing stress is placing pressure on the delivery of new social housing units and the ability of housing associations to meet heightened levels. Pressure on meeting on strategic housing policy objectives with implications on the functioning of local housing markets. Monitoring of surplus land and its potential use in meeting social sector delivery targets.
Emerging Policy Issues: Housing Land Development Policy challenges concerning private sector housing development in an improving macroeconomic context Access to land for housing development purposes at affordable pricing levels to avoid a future house price bubble and maintain a more sustainable housing market going forward Size and carrying capacity of development sites and economies of scale Financing of private sector housing development at competitive rates of lending Ability to attract larger developers capable of handling exposure to varying debt-equity exposures Providing a more diverse housing product with tenure mix
Emerging Policy Issues: Local Planning Priorities Local authorities need to consider their own specific local needs and determine what it means for their area in terms of housing development based on robust data analysis Determining where the greatest demand for housing need will occur in the short to medium term The different composition of households and variations in tenure types is significant for house building Local authorities need to be given the resources to gauge what kinds of needs exist within their jurisdiction The housing sector needs to be building enough homes of the right type, size and tenure to meet housing projection targets Need to interrelate land availability, housing development employment growth and job creation at local government level
Opportunity for Open Discussion