Research Report RALEIGH-DURHAM OFFICE Q4 2018 Accelerate Success Year End Deliveries Drive Leasing Activity In the Raleigh-Durham Market Kelsey Rogers Senior Research Analyst Raleigh-Durham Market Indicators Raleigh-Durham Q1 2018 Raleigh-Durham Q4 2018 Key Takeaways > > Increasing demand pushes rental rates in various markets to rise above $30.00 per square foot. The average quoted rental rate was reported at $24.36 at the end of 2018. > > Vacancy rates remain tight at the close of 2018 reporting at 7.70%. The vacancy rate was 7.49% at the end of the third quarter 2018, 8.53% at the end of the second quarter 2018, and 7.8% at the end of the first quarter 2018. Raleigh-Durham remains a target market as tenants seek Class A office space and live, work, play environments. > > Net absorption for the overall office market was positive this past quarter, following trend from the previous quarters this past year. That compares to positive 214,006 square feet in the third quarter of 2018, positive 446,656 square feet in the second quarter of 2018, and positive 258,724 square feet in the first quarter of 2018. > > The state landed high-profile headquarter relocations and expansions this year following an increase to its incentives program. Raleigh-based Pendo added 590 jobs and Advance Auto Parts announced plans to relocate its Fortune 500 headquarters to the Triangle market. > > Unemployment rate in the Raleigh-Durham market continues to remain well below the national average with a reported rate of 3.0%. NET ABSORPTION RENTAL RATE Summary Statistics Q4 2018 Office Market Existing Inventory (Millions Square Feet) Triangle Market Triangle Class A 67.6 33.2 Vacancy Rate 7.70% 6.88% Net Absorption (Square Feet) Under Construction (Million Square Feet) Construction Deliveries (Square Feet) Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year 791,641 543,776 2.07 2.04 9,342 927,504 Average Quoted $24.36 $28.23
Absorption & Leasing Activity > > The Triangle market reported an increased net absorption with 791,461 square-feet absorbed at the end of 2018. The RTP/I- submarket reported positive net demand with over 346,636 square feet of office space absorbed. > > The Downtown Raleigh and Downtown Durham submarkets continue to produce stable office demand with a combined total of over 278,300 square feet absorbed during the fourth quarter. > > Overall Class A net absorption in the Triangle reached 543,776 square feet at the end of the fourth quarter. Net demand in the Class A market was reported at 207,375 square feet in the third quarter of 2018, 239,390 square feet in the second quarter of 2018, and 254,532 square feet at the end of the first quarter in 2018. > > The RTP/ I- submarket reported the highest Class A demand of the quarter with over 309,378 square feet of total net absorption. > > Leasing activity strengthened in the fourth quarter of 2018. The largest leases in the market this year included a 221,000 square feet lease signed by Laboratory Corporation of America at 5 Moore Drive in Research Triangle Park, 104,000 square feet leased by Arch Capital at the Dillon, a lease renewal totaling 83,218 square feet by Bandwidth at Venture Center III, and IAT Insurance signing 61,000 square feet at North Hills East Tower IV at North Hills. Vacancy & Availability > > The overall Triangle vacancy rate was reported at 7.70% for the fourth quarter end. The delivery of several large Class A developments, totaling 927,504 square feet increased overall vacancy levels by 0.21% from the third quarter. > > The overall Class A vacancy in the Triangle office market decreased at the close of the quarter reporting at 6.88%, down 1.26% from the prior quarter with over 3.1M total square feet of vacant space. > > The Glenwood/Creedmoor submarket produced the highest demand this quarter, reporting the lowest vacancy rate at 2.63% in the Class A office market. > > The 1.91M square feet of office space still under construction is expected to create an aggressive market for tenants looking for a live, work, play atmosphere in the coming year. > > Demand from companies looking for new locations and expansions is expected to continue into 2019, resulting in an escalation of deals, changing vacancies and absorption. Rental Rates > > Average asking rents in the Triangle office market continue to increase. While 9,342 square feet was delivered this past quarter, a notable amount of supply is still to come and the leasing environments in the Triangle will continue to greatly favor the landlord. > > Notable Class A submarkets surpassed $30.00 per square foot this quarter including Six Forks Falls of Neuse, Downtown Durham and Downtown Raleigh. > > Average asking rents for the overall submarket were reported at $24.36 per square foot, resulting in a $0.51 increase from the previous quarter. Class A rents increased to $28.23. Absorption vs. Deliveries, Vacancies Q4 2018 1,000,000 8.00% 900,000 7.90% 800,000 7.80% 700,000 600,000 7.70% 500,000 7.60% 0,000 7.50% 300,000 7.% 200,000 100,000 7.30% - 7.20% 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 Deliveries Absorption Vacancy Vacancy Rates Among Major Submarkets Q4 2018 6 Forks Falls of Neuse Cary Downtown Durham Downtown Raleigh Glenwood Creedmoor Orange County Research Triangle Park RTP I- West Raleigh 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Class A Vacancy Overall Vacancy Class A Rent Vs Overall Market Rent Q4 2018 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 Overall Class A 2 Raleigh-Durham Research Report Q4 2018 Office Market Colliers International
RALEIGH-DURHAM SUBMARKET COMPARISONS SUBMARKET NAME EXISTING INVENTORY DIRECT SUBLET TOTAL PERCENTAGE (%) NET ABSORPTION NEW DELIVERIES UNDER AVERAGE RENTAL RATE (WEIGHTED) Cary 8,679,223 738,087 4,322 742,9 8.55% (62,435) 152,413 219,000 $24.06 Downtown Durham 4,898,233 320,809 8,341 329,150 6.72% 261,018 469,193 229,455 $29.61 Downtown Raleigh 6,395,884 376,3 0 376,3 5.88% 17,282 12,838 149,842 $29.51 Glenwood/Creedmoor 3,202,714 135,735 0 135,735 4.24% (55,079) 0 168,000 $21.86 North Durham 1,629,292 227,534 3,100 230,634 14.16% (1,880) 0 0 $16.96 Northeast Wake County 398,199 1,9 0 1,9 0.49% 0 0 0 $16.77 Orange County 2,902,502 203,294 14,165 217,459 7.49% 75,907 47,648 0 $23.84 Research Triangle Park 7,393,317 1,088,816 34,272 1,123,088 15.19% 42,976 0 152,456 $22.60 RTP/I- 5,828,464 302,104 132,354 434,458 7.45% 346,636 258,250 297,462 $23.82 6 Forks Falls of Neuse 8,379,049 665,999 35,251 701,250 8.37% 37,294 0 390,000 $25.05 South Durham 4,911,814 287,478 31,131 318,609 6.49% 22,516 0 0 $22.13 Southern Wake County 1,662,856 36,703 0 36,703 2.21% 10,229 0 0 $16.42 US 1 / Capital Blvd 2,570,109 107,162 0 107,162 4.17% 24,7 0 31,854 $19.76 West Raleigh 8,810,261 433,082 23,293 456,375 5.18% 72,257 0 436,645 $26.06 MARKET TOTALS (WEIGHTED) 67,661,917 4,925,083 286,229 5,211,312 7.70% 791,461 9,342 2,074,714 $24.36 RALEIGH-DURHAM CLASS A SUBMARKET COMPARISONS EXISTING INVENTORY DIRECT SUBLET TOTAL PERCENTAGE (%) NET ABSORPTION NEW DELIVERIES UNDER AVERAGE RENTAL RATE (WEIGHTED) SUBMARKET NAME Cary 4,3,029 644,702 0 644,702 14.85% (192,616) 152,413 219,000 $27.60 Downtown Durham 2,951,7 295,558 4,150 299,708 10.15% 272,352 469,193 229,455 $31.56 Downtown Raleigh 4,141,648 330,118 0 330,118 7.97% 1,286 0 149,842 $32.39 Glenwood/Creedmoor 1,366,205 35,933 0 35,933 2.63% (13,542) 0 168,000 $26.07 Orange County 1,417,522 144,787 14,165 158,952 11.21% 59,296 47,648 0 $27.39 Research Triangle Park 2,974,535 338,882 3,182 342,064 11.50% 5,205 0 152,456 $24.90 RTP/I- 4,213,166 182,008 118,858 300,866 7.14% 309,378 258,250 297,462 $25.42 6 Forks Falls of Neuse 3,783,011 2,148 32,525 434,673 11.49% 24,259 0 390,000 $31.19 South Durham 2,360,687 196,3 23,761 220,101 9.32% 27,598 0 0 $25.70 US 1 / Capital Blvd 959,5 35,858 0 35,858 3.74% (1,098) 0 0 $22.83 West Raleigh 4,717,939 282,853 17,588 300,441 6.37% 51,658 0 436,645 $28.57 MARKET TOTALS (WEIGHTED) 33,225,689 2,889,187 214,229 3,103,416 9.34% 543,776 927,504 2,042,860 $28.23 *NOTE: North Durham, NE Wake County submarkets do not have any Class A office inventory. YEAR END 2018 NOTABLE LEASE TRANSACTIONS TENANT BUILDING SUBMARKET TOTAL SF LEASE TYPE IAT Insurance North Hills East-Tower IV at North Hills Six Forks Falls of Neuse 61,000 New Spaces 555 S. Mangum Street Downtown Durham 47,619 New Arch Capital 223 S West Street Downtown Raleigh 104,593 New LabCorp 5 Moore Drive Research Triangle Park 221,988 New Bandwidth 900 Main Campus Drive West Raleigh 83,218 Renewal Nvidia 2600 Meridian South Durham 65,599 New 3 Raleigh-Durham Research Report Q4 2018 Office Market Colliers International
Construction & Investment Activity > > At the close of the fourth quarter of 2018, office deliveries totaled 9,342 SF with an additional 2.07 million square feet that is currently under construction. Class A office buildings in the Downtown Durham submarket including, Durham id Bldg B, One City Center 2, and 200 Morris Street contributed to the increase in year-end deliveries. > > Perimeter Park Six, Building I in Research Triangle Park, Perimeter Park and One Glenwood are still under construction with an anticipated delivery time of early 2019. Q4 2018 NOTABLE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY PROPERTY SUBMARKET SIZE PRE-LEASED % STATUS START / DELIV DATE Perimeter Park Six RTP/RDU 200,000 67.5% Under Construction Q1 2019 Building 1 Research Triangle 152,456 N/A Under Construction Q1 2019 Perimeter Park RTP/RDU 97,462 70.3% Under Construction Q1 2019 One Glenwood West Raleigh 227,500 79.5% Under Construction Q1 2019 555 S. Mangum Street Downtown Durham 233,000 20.1% Under Construction Q4 2019 FNB Tower Downtown Raleigh 149,842 60.7% Under Construction Q4 2019 Wade V West Raleigh 209,322 0.0% Under Construction Q1 2020 Tower IV at North Hills 6 Forks Falls of Neuse 390,000 33.3% Under Construction Q3 2020 Crabtree Terrace Glenwood/Creedmoor 173,000 30.22 Under Construction Q4 2019 0 H Downtown Raleigh 500,000 0.0% Proposed Q1 2019 Briar Creek Town Center I RTP/RDU 200,000 0.0% Proposed Q2 2019 The Edge Downtown Raleigh 282,000 0.0% Proposed Q1 2020 City Gateway Downtown Raleigh 196,802 62.6% Proposed Q2 2019 YTD NOTABLE INVESTMENT SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY Wells Fargo Capitol Building 3034 Carrington Mill Blvd *5200 E Paramount Parkway *5020 Weston Parkway Midtown Plaza SUBMARKET SALES PRICE (MILLIONS) SIZE PRICE PER SF CAP RATE% BUYER SELLER Downtown Raleigh $173.00 559,984 $308 6.0 Preferred Office Properties RTP/RDU $74.21 258,250 $287.38 7.05 Capri EGM RTP/RDU $314.00 1,162,109 $270 N/A Cary $75.50 290,183 $260.18 N/A Six Forks Falls of Neuse $127.00 330,000 $385 6.0 Ascendas- Singbridge Group Accesso Partners LLC Lionstone Investments Highbrook Investors Starwood Capital Group Trinity Capital Advisors, LLC Capital Associates Management LLC Kane Realty; JV: KBS Realty *Crescent Lakeside Cary $68.26 255,442 $267.25 NA HLM Realty Capital Associates Management *Brown Bros Portfolio South Durham $55.60 201,008 $276 NA Innovatus Clarion Partners *Meridian Campus RTP I- $95.80 587,901 $189 7.0 Accesso Partners; JV: Torchlight Stratford Hall RTP I- $14.30 81,000 $176 NA 4307 Emperor LLC *NOTE: Part of a portfolio sale. Investcorp; JV: American RE Partners Principal RE Investors 4 Raleigh-Durham Research Report Q4 2018 Office Market Colliers International
North Durham TRIANGLE SUBMARKET MAP BURLINGTON Orange County Graham 85 64 CHAPEL HILL Carrboro 85 ORANGE CO. DURHAM CO. 501 South Durham Downtown Durham CHATHAM CO. DURHAM 5 147 Research Triangle Park RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK RTP / I- Apex Morrisville RDU International Airport Cary 1 64 CARY West Raleigh DURHAM CO. Glenwood/ Creedmoor GRANVILLE CO. 5 Six Forks Rd 4 RALEIGH Downtown Raleigh Falls of the Neuse Rd Garner FRANKLIN CO. Wake Forest US 1 / Capital Blvd 264 Northeast Wake County 1 Southern Wake County Holly Springs East Raleigh 70 Clayton Fuquay-Varina. JOHNSON CO. Smithfield Sanford METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY The Raleigh-Durham office reports calculate statistics using CoStar Group and Colliers International Raleigh-Durham s database of existing and under construction properties at market and submarket levels. Included in the pool of data are non-owner occupied Class A, B, and C office properties of 10,000+ SF. DOWNTOWN DURHAM AMERICAN TOBACCO CAMPUS 5 Raleigh-Durham Research Report Q4 2018 Office Market Colliers International
413 offices in 69 countries on 6 continents United States: 145 Canada: 28 Latin America: 23 Asia Pacific: 39 EMEA: 131 Colliers International I Raleigh-Durham 702 Oberlin Road, Suite 0 Raleigh, NC 27605 +1 919 582 1110 colliers.com/raleighdurham OFFICE SERVICES CONTACT Kathy Gigac, SIOR Director of Tenant Advisory Services Kathy.Gigac@colliers.com Baxter Walker Senior Vice President Baxter.Walker@colliers.com Thomas Kenna Vice President Thomas.Kenna@colliers.com Martie Serianni Senior Vice President Martie.Serianni@colliers.com Steve Morrows Senior Vice President of Landlord Services Steve.Morrows@colliers.com Lindsey Calverley Vice President Lindsey.Calverley@colliers.com REGIONAL AUTHOR Kelsey Rogers Senior Research Analyst, CPRC METHODOLOGY The Raleigh-Durham office reports calculate statistics using CoStar Group and Colliers International Raleigh- Durham s database of existing and under construction properties at market and submarket levels. Included in the pool of data are non-owner occupied Class A, B, and C office properties of 10,000+ SF. Copyright 2017 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.