Massachusetts 2016 First Quarter Housing Report

Massachusetts 2016 First Quarter Housing Report

Outlook for 2016 Positive as Unit Sales Continue to Climb The re-entry of boomerang buyers and potential for millennial homeownership point to a strengthening market By John Tarducci, MIRM, Senior Vice President, New Development Services Division, William Raveis Real Estate, Mortgage & Insurance During the first quarter of 2016, the overall impression for both the single-family and condominium marketplaces is a shifting market. In both singlefamily homes and condominiums, Unit Sales have risen and Single Family Average Sales Price has fallen from January through March 2016, as compared to the same period in 2015. For singlefamily homes, Unit Sales increased 21.7 percent, and for condominiums, Unit Sales increased 21.3 percent during the first three months of 2016. During the same time-frame, Average Sales Price decreased 1.7 percent for single-family homes and increased 1.8 percent for condominiums. in the first quarter of 2016, as reported by the US Census Bureau for the MA Metro Services Areas (MSA). However, this overall loss can be completely attributed to a sharp decline in the total number of permits for 5+ unit households. By comparison, during the same period, permits for single-unit households rose substantially (+47.6%). Has shortened inventory for single-family households finally reached a breaking point in Massachusetts? Will these housing starts be completed in time to meet the increasing demand for single-family homes? These questions will be answered as we continue into 2016. In Q1 2016, we ve also seen an interesting trend in housing permits. After a strong finish to 2015, the total number of housing permits fell 28.8 percent 1

Housing Permits See Shift in 2016 MSA 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 & 4 Unit 5+ Unit Total 1Q2016 % DIFF. Barnstable Town 20 0 0 0 20 +25.00% Boston/Cambridge/Quincy 1,061 102 83 901 2,147 +29.07% Pittsfield 2 0 0 0 2 +100.00% Springfield 4 0 0 0 4-20.00% Worcester 29 0 0 0 29-32.56% Totals 1,116 102 83 901 2,202-28.78% MSA 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 & 4 Unit 5+ Unit Total 1Q2015 Barnstable Town 16 0 0 0 16 Boston/Cambridge/Quincy 710 70 34 2,213 3,027 Pittsfield 1 0 0 0 1 Springfield 3 2 0 0 5 Worcester 26 0 3 14 43 Totals 756 72 37 2,227 3,092 % DIFF. +47.62% +41.66% +124.32% -59.54% -28.78% State of Massachusetts Housing Permits Issued by MSA First Quarter 2015 vs. 2016 In Q1 2016, as compared to Q1 2015, the total number of housing permits declined, from 3,092 to 2,202 a loss of 28.8 percent overall. This is as reported by the US Census Bureau for the MA Metro Services Areas (MSA). All of this decline occurred in permits with 5+ units, which fell from 2,227 in Q1 2015 to 901 in Q1 2016, a decline of 59.5 percent. However, all other permit types experienced gains this quarter, with 1-unit permits rising 47.6 percent, 2-unit permits rising 41.7 percent and 3 & 4-unit permits rising 124.3 percent. When comparing metro service areas (MSA) in Massachusetts, several experienced growth in total permits, with Pittsfield at 100 percent, Boston- Cambridge-Quincy at 29.1 percent and Barnstable Town at 25 percent. However, Worcester declined 32.6 percent, and Springfield permits fell 20 percent. 2

Single Family Home Sales In the state of Massachusetts and in the eight eastern counties (Bristol, Essex, Hampden, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and Worcester) in this report, the close of Q1 2016 saw an increase in home sales, with totals rising 21.7 percent, from 7,461 in Q1 2015 to 9,078 in Q1 2016. On a county-by-county level, all counties in this report experienced yearover-year increases, including: Hampden County at 39.5 percent, Worcester County at 27.8 percent, Plymouth County at 27.1 percent, Bristol County at 23.2 percent, Essex County at 22.4 percent, Norfolk First Quarter 2016 vs. 2015 Unit Sales 21.7% Avg. List Price 12.0% Months of Supply 9.6% County at 21.4 percent, Suffolk County at 15.3 percent and Middlesex County at 14.5 percent. Average Sales Price for the state of Massachusetts finished Q1 2016 1.7 percent below Q1 2015 levels, decreasing from $440,850 to $433,273. On a countyby-county basis in the eight eastern counties (Bristol, Essex, Hampden, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and Worcester) in this report, Average Sales Price decreased 3.1 percent in Middlesex County, 3 percent in Hampden County and 0.3 percent in Norfolk County. Meanwhile, Average Sales Price was on the rise in all other counties, including: 1.8 percent in Plymouth County, 1.7 percent in Suffolk County, 1.5 percent in Worcester County, 1.1 percent in Bristol County and 1 percent in Essex County. Average List Price increased 12 percent in Q1 2016, Months of Supply fell 9.6 percent over Q1 2015 levels and Price Per Square Foot increase 0.8 percent. 3

Single Family Home Sales Single Family Marketplace Home Sales First Quarter 2015 vs. 2016 NUMBER OF UNITS SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE COUNTY 1Q 2015 1Q 2016 % DIFF. 1Q 2015 1Q 2016 % DIFF. Bristol 667 822 +23.2% $292,050 $295,284 +1.1% Essex 840 1,028 +22.4% $431,982 $436,238 +1.0% Hampden 526 734 +39.5% $192,153 $186,474-3.0% Middlesex 1,528 1,749 +14.5% $598,778 $580,347-3.1% Norfolk 842 1,022 +21.4% $601,348 $599,550-0.3% Plymouth 789 1,003 +27.1% $354,978 $361,340 +1.8% Suffolk 190 219 +15.3% $590,051 $600,332 +1.7% Worcester 1,097 1,402 +27.8% $262,518 $266,439 +1.5% STATEWIDE 7,461 9,078 +21.7% $440,850 $433,273-1.7% Single Family Marketplace Months of Supply First Quarter 2015 vs. 2016 COUNTY 1Q 2015 1Q 2016 % DIFF. Bristol 5.3 4.5-14.90% Essex 3.4 3.0-13.3% Hampden 5.6 4.6-17.5% Middlesex 2.5 2.6 +6.1% Norfolk 3.0 2.9-5.2% Plymouth 4.7 4.2-12.1% Suffolk 2.2 2.5 +10.0% Worcester 5.4 4.3-20.4% TOTAL 4.4 4.0-9.6% 4

Condominium Sales on the Rise In Q1 2016, as compared to Q1 2015, condominium sales saw a 21.3 percent increase, year-over-year. Most counties, of the eight eastern counties (Bristol, Essex, Hampden, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk and Worcester) in this report, saw an increase in Units Sold, including: Bristol County at 59.8 percent, Middlesex County at 28 percent, Worcester County at 27.4 percent, Plymouth County at 24.3 percent, Essex County at 19.6 percent, Suffolk County at 18.1 percent and Hampden County at 13.2 percent. First Quarter 2016 vs. 2015 Unit Sales 21.3% Avg. List Price 16.6% One county experienced a loss, with Norfolk County decreasing 0.3 percent. Average Sales Price of condominiums increased slightly overall, rising 1.8 percent from $407,705 in Q1 2015 to $414,995 in Q1 2016. Increasing prices were seen in Middlesex County at 8.5 percent, Hampden County at 7.5 percent, Bristol County at 5 percent and Suffolk County at 1.4 percent. However, gains weren t had everywhere, losses were seen in Plymouth County at 7.1 percent, Essex County at 3.9 percent, Norfolk County at 1.6 percent and Worcester County at 0.9 percent. Average List Price for condominiums in the state of Massachusetts increased 16.6 percent in Q1 2016, Months of Supply decreased 4.7 percent and Price per Square Foot increased 4.2 percent. Months of Supply 4.7% 5

Condominium Sales on the Rise Condominium Marketplace Home Sales First Quarter 2015 vs. 2016 NUMBER OF UNITS SOLD AVERAGE SALES PRICE COUNTY 1Q 2015 1Q 2016 % DIFF. 1Q 2015 1Q 2016 % DIFF. Bristol 102 163 +59.8% $181,745 $190,831 +5.0% Essex 377 451 +19.6% $286,109 $274,809-3.9% Hampden 91 103 +13.2% $148,653 $159,810 +7.5% Middlesex 808 1,034 +28.0% $402,524 $436,821 +8.5% Norfolk 363 362-0.3% $412,270 $405,613-1.6% Plymouth 152 189 +24.3% $292,887 $271,967-7.1% Suffolk 675 797 +18.1% $670,526 $680,172 +1.4% Worcester 219 279 +27.4% $212,834 $210,816-0.9% STATEWIDE 2,991 3,628 +21.3% $407,705 $414,995 +1.8% Condominium Marketplace Months of Supply First Quarter 2015 vs. 2016 COUNTY 1Q 2015 1Q 2016 % DIFF. Bristol 4.6 4.6 +0.1% Essex 3.6 2.9-18.3% Hampden 7.1 5.3-25.4% Middlesex 2.0 2.0 0.0% Norfolk 2.3 2.4 +4.1% Plymouth 4.9 4.0-18.1% Suffolk 1.9 2.1 +12.3% Worcester 5.0 4.1-17.9% TOTAL 3.1 2.9-4.7% 6

The Rental Market Boom, The Starter Home Bust According to the Housing Vacancy Survey, renter household growth has averaged 770,000 annually since 2004. This makes 2004 14 the best 10-year period for renter growth since the late 1980s. Builders have responded to this massive growth with the steady increase of both single-family detached homes and multifamily housing. However, despite the expansion, rental markets have only continued to tighten since 2014. As a result, vacancy rates dipped to their lowest point in 20 years, causing rents to spike at twice the rate of overall inflation. Considering that at the end of 2015, it was more affordable to buy than rent in 58 percent of the nation s markets, it would seem intuitive that overburdened renters would buy. However it may not be that simple. While rents are rising faster than wage growth, housing prices are too. Coupled with the near-extinction of low-cost, entry-level homes, and renters simply do not have the capital to put a down payment on a more expensive home. Kicking off 2016, the median new-home price nationally was well over $280,000--a cost that is well above reasonable for many entry-level buyers looking to make the leap from renting. Now, there are major forces that have kept new starter homes from being built, among them are: high land and development costs for starter-home lots, local fees that significantly increase prices, and buyer preferences toward more unique homes. Builder Online believes that millennials [who] wait for homeownership may fundamentally change what the first-time buy is all about. But, if rents continue their current trajectory, will millennials be able to afford the non-starter home of their dreams? Massachusetts Connecticut 2016 2015 First Full Quarter Year Housing Report 7

Could 2016 Be Housing s Best Year? There are a host of predictive factors that point to one, bold statement: 2016 could be the housing market s best year in over a decade. FreddieMac recently reported that home sales, construction housing starts and house prices are set to reach decade-level highs. Additionally, a host of new (old) buyers will be eligible and poised to reenter the market. According to a recent study by TransUnion, 1.5 million homeowners that were negatively impacted by the housing crisis could re-enter the housing market in the next three years, with 2.2 million total re-entering in the next five years. For these buyers, as well as first-time home buyers, the first half of the 2016 will offer favorable mortgage rates, on top of other benefits. At the start of Q1 2016, mortgage rates dipped below 4 percent, and have remained there since. FreddieMac predicts that rates will stay below 4 percent for the first half of 2016, a boon in support of homebuyer affordability. Combine all of the above components with steady job growth and a resilient labor market, and 2016 has the potential to be one of the best markets we ve seen in a long time. John Tarducci, MIRM, CMP, CRB Senior Vice President William Raveis New Development Services Raveis Marketing Group John.Tarducci@Raveis.com RaveisNewHomes.com RaveisMG.com o: 203.925.4587 c: 203.640.6930 Credits and Resources 1. Information contained herein is based on information obtained from MLSPIN and is deemed accurate but not guaranteed 2. Metro Service Area (MSA) housing permit data source: U.S. Census Bureau Compiled by HUD Research 3. Not all Massachusetts counties are made part of this report. This report focuses on the eight eastern counties (Bristol, Essex, Hampden, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, and Worcester). 8