FEBRUARY 2019 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

FEBRUARY 219 Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through January 31, 219 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group Immaculate Brick Highland Park Colonial with Finished Basement....................... 415LucyLongDrive.com

[1] MARKET SUMMARY HOME SALES REPORT February 219 All Residential Sales 216 217 218 219 % Change ('17 '18) January 67 69 63 63.% Year To Date (Jan) 67 69 63 63.% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) 1,144 1,315 1,256 1,33 3.74% Median Sales Price 216 217 218 219 % Change ('17 '18) January $194, $182,5 $22, $212,5 3.41% Year To Date (Jan) $194, $182,5 $22, $212,5 3.41% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) $185, $192, $199,894 $211,5 5.81% Median Days on Market 216 217 218 219 % Change ('17 '18) Year To Date (Jan) 77 5 54 39 27.78% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) 55 49 33 25 24.24% Home sales were predictably slow in January 219 -- with 63 home sales closing during the month of January, exactly the same number as closed last January. When looking at the last 12 months (Feb-Jan) we see that home sales have increased 3.74% as compared to the previous 12 months. It is most helpful to look at that longer timeframe when evaluating trends in home values, and that s where we see a 5.81% increase in the median sales price when looking at the 12 month comparison. Homes are also selling much more quickly of late, with a 24% decline to a median days on market of 25 days.

[1] MARKET SUMMARY HOME SALES REPORT February 219 Detached Homes 216 217 218 219 % Change ('17 '18) Year To Date (Jan) 48 42 46 46.% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) 828 974 895 942 5.25% Median Sales Price 216 217 218 219 % Change ('17 '18) Year To Date (Jan) $216,5 $227,45 $229,95 $233, 1.33% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) $2, $214, $225, $228, 1.33% Attached Homes 216 217 218 219 % Change ('17 '18) Year To Date (Jan) 19 27 17 17.% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) 316 341 361 361.% Median Sales Price 216 217 218 219 % Change ('17 '18) Year To Date (Jan) $152, $159, $156, $163,5 4.81% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) $15, $15, $16, $167,811 4.88% The green charts above shows trends in detached home sales -- as compared to the orange charts which show attached home sales, comprised of duplexes, townhouses and condominiums. While the pace of sales of detached homes did increase by 5.25% last year, the median price of those homes only increased by 1.33%. I believe this 1.33% increase is the best indication of the change in market value of homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year -- as a change in the mix of attached vs. detached homes selling affects the overall residential sales trend.

[1] MARKET SUMMARY HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County # Home Sales 218 219 % Change 218 219 % Change January 19 25 31.58% 44 38 13.64% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) 41 465 13.41% 846 838.95% City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County Median Sales Price 218 219 % Change 218 219 % Change January $165,5 $175,4 5.98% $224,95 $226,5.69% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) $176, $189,9 7.9% $21,625 $221, 4.93% City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County Median Days on Market 218 219 % Change 218 219 % Change January 23 39 69.57% 77 42 45.45% Last 12 Months (Feb Jan) 2 14 3.% 41 33 19.51% It continues to hold true that each year almost twice as many homes sell in Rockingham County as compared to the City of Harrisonburg. In 218, that trend continued - though with a significant year-over-year surge of sales in the City (+13.41%) as compared to a slight decline in the County (-.95%). The median sales price increased in each region of these two regions of our local market -- though the median sales price continues to be a good bit higher in the County ($221,) than in the City ($189,9). The lower City median sales price is likely a result of the majority of our area s townhouses (at lower prices) being located in the City.

[2] RECENT TRENDS Month By Month Home Sales History 175 174 216 All Residential Sales (Detached & Attached) 15 125 75 5 69 67 63 63 217 218 219 81 69 68 94 85 15 11 January 219 63 Home Sales 149 133 13 152 138 131 117 115 158 119 115 129 15 12 98 97 113 83 13 11 95 25 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Here we go again! Last year (218) was a robust year of sales for our local market - and we re starting off this year in exactly the same way - thus far. There were 63 home sales in January 219, which was tied for the lowest from the past four years, but is the exact same number we saw last January. We are likely to see an increasing number of home sales as we continue through the next five months, and I predict that we ll see around 7 home sales in February. As I observed last year, the main factor that could limit the pace of home sales would be continued reduced inventory levels - leaving buyers without homes to buy.

[2] RECENT TRENDS Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 14 13 12 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1,313 1,32 1,261 1,218 1,22 1,158 1,125 1,15 1,119 1,67 1,85 1,41 1,58 974 988 1,8 999 962 96 91 92 899 857 817 879 855 88 784 734 76 721 736 697 618 634 66 619 653 591 5 526 466 454 481 479 4 392 355 321 332 349 296 282 248 192 167 189 22 232 244 121 19 117 135 138 144 49 56 49 67 69 63 63 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As shown above, our local housing market experienced small incremental growth between 213 and 215 before seeing a sharp uptick in home sales in 216, and then a modest decline between 216 and 217. That trend reversed itself in 218 -- with an increase as compared to 217, up to 1,32 home sales in 218. We didn t quite match the strong sales seen in 216 -- but we came very close -- and broke the 1,3 mark again, for only the second time in the past 1 years.

[2] RECENT TRENDS 1,8 1,6 $185, $186, $186,5 $186, $185, Time Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Residential Properties # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period $185, $185,75 $186,25 $189, $19, $19, $192,5 $192, $192, $192, $19, $192,7 $193, $194,5 $196,5 $195, $196,125 $198,25 $198,5 $199,882 $199,9 $2, $23, $26, $21, $21, $21, $212, $212,6 $212, $211,75 $211,5 $22, $21, $2, $19, 1,4 1,2 1,143 1,143 1,156 1,164 1,187 1,25 1,212 1,244 1,276 1,268 1,32 1,313 1,315 1,316 1,325 1,324 1,34 1,326 1,328 1,289 1,265 1,266 1,253 1,261 1,255 1,267 1,273 1,278 1,259 1,295 1,39 1,35 1,3 1,322 1,35 1,33 1,33 $18, $17, $16, $15, $14, 1, $13, Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 This graph shows a rolling 12 month trend line of the number of homes sold in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. The pace of home sales rose between 215 and mid-217 before slowing for about a year -- but then slowly started to rise again in 218. The median sales price, however, has been on a relatively steady rise for over two years now -- increasing above $2K in 218 and now eclipsing $21K for five months.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Home Sales & Price Trends All Residential Sales (Attached & Detached) 2, $25, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 1,57 $149, +11% +14% 1,669 $169,9 14% +14% $192,983 1,438 +1% 13% $195, 1,248 23% $195, 5% $185, 967 1% 87 3% $179,9 6% $169,9 +1% $172,375 9 +8% 8% 832 799 +4% +2% $175, +2% $178, +4% $185, 1,122 1,67 1,85 +3% +2% +19% +4% $192,5 +3% $198,25 +7% $211,75 1,39 1,33 1,26 +17% 4% +3% $212,5 $2, $15, $, 6 4 $5, 2 63 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 $ This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 23 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After six years in a row (211-216) of an increasing pace of home sales, we then saw a 4% decline in the pace of home sales in 217. This trend reversed itself in 218 with a 3% increase in the pace of sales. We have now also completed our seventh year in a row of seeing an increase in the median sales price in our area. The median sales price of all residential sales was $211,75 in 218 -- up 7% from last year.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Home Sales & Price Trends Detached Homes 1,6 1,4 1,2 $17, +24% $21, +8% $226,8 1% $223,575 4% $215, 6% $23, 4% $195, 6% $184, +6% $195, 2% $192, 1% $19, +5% $2, +7% $214, +5% $224,6 +2% $228, $233, $25, $2, 1, 8 6 1,24 1,25 11% 99 12% 798 15% 678 11% 653 +1% +3% 62 595 1% 672 +21% 813 819 818 +1% +2% 978 9% +6% 89 941 $15, $, $5, 4 $ 2 $5, 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 46 $, The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County improved significantly between 215 and 216 with a 2% increase in the number of homes sold but then took a step backwards in 217 with a 9% decline. In 218, sales started charging forward again with a 6% increase in the pace of sales. Median sales prices of single family homes has increased for each of the past four years -- though the pace of those increases slowed in 218 to only 2%. The median sales price of single family homes last year was $228, -- the highest median sales price on record for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Home Sales & Price Trends Attached Homes (Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos) 7 6 5 4 3 2 644 18% +33% +19% 529 483 +14% $118,5 $134,95 $16,85 +2% $163,8 15% 45 +2% $166,635 36% 289 4% $159,545 3% $154,25 9% $14,5 6% $132,75 331 +9% 34 7% +14% 268 266 254 +5% +11% 24% 228 24 +27% 12% 179 +3% $137,25 +11% $151,75 $151,75 1% $149,5 +7% $159,8 +5% $167,8 37 2% +12% 361 $163,5 $18, $16, $14, $12, $, $8, $6, $4, $2, 17 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 $ Townhouse (and duplexes and condo) sales took a small step backwards last year after six years of steady increases in the pace of sales. At year-end, 2% fewer attached dwellings (361) had sold in 218 as compared to in 217 when 37 sold. Despite a slight slow down in the pace of sales -- possbily caused by very low inventory absent much new construction -- the median sales price continues to cliimb, now up to $167,8. Here is yet another record broken -- the median sales price of $167,8 is the highest we have ever seen in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market 8 7 6 5 4 3 679 674 664 656 646 641 637 635 632 631 628 624 622 617 618 622 436 447 447 Buyer's Market SELLERS 625 628 63 631 633 633 635 635 634 633 631 627 625 622 616 612 67 68 69 611 61 61 69 66 599 462 472 477 486 496 53 59 492 57 51 52 496 482 484 491 495 491 54 515 518 521 518 527 535 543 547 56 554 565 56 559 565 56 57 57 577 581 593 BUYERS Balanced Market 631 648 655 656 656 661 66 668 663 664 645 633 633 627 631 628 634 637 639 63 648 655 653 65 661 653 652 652 556 542 53 516 55 491 476 BUYERS 461 446 435 423 411 41 39 379 372 363 356 349 345 341 335 33 324 32 318 317 316 SELLERS Seller's Market 2 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The BUYERS trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The SELLERS trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past several years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. In June 216, these two trajectories crossed, and there are now many more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale -- though the buying pace has leveled off.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Detached Homes) Median Price Price/SF $35, $14 $12 $ $8 $6 $97 $17K $116 $21K $129 $127 $127 $227K $224K $215K $117 $113 $23K $195K $11 $184K Median Price Per SF $125 $118 $113 $115 $13 $15 $16 $18 $233K $225K $228K $214K $2K $195K $192K $19K Median Sales Price $3, $25, $2, $15, $4 $, $2 $5, $ 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 $ In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 1+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past several years (215 through 218) we have seen increases in the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes 1,499 SF 1,5 2,5 SF 2,5+ SF 15 $145 14 $132 $133 13 12 11 $121 $111 $18 $16 $11 $111 $14 $115 $15 $114 $14 $13 $121 $16 $11 $126 $115 $15 $119 $17 $123 $19 $12 $111 $96 $97 $98 9 8 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of similar sizes. Looking at 218 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (25+ SF) is a good bit lower ($19/SF) than that of homes with less than 15 SF ($145/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS 2, Median List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace 1,75 99% 99% 99% 1,669 98% 98% 97% 96% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 98% 98% 99% 97%.% 1,5 1,57 1,438 95.% 1,25 1,248 1,67 1,85 1,122 1,39 1,26 1,33 9.% 1, 967 87 799 832 9 85.% 75 8.% 5 25 75.% 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 63 7.% This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (24-26) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 98% in 21 before the pace of home sales started escalating. Then, when the pace of home sales slowed (through 21) this metric dropped to 96%, where it stayed for three years. Sellers started selling for slightly more in 213-215 when they could obtain 97% of their list price. This increased to 98% in 216, held steady in 217, and returned to 99% in 218.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS New Construction Detached Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot 2 186 18 2 16 158 14 12 14 $133 $15 139 $146 $144 19 $137 $13 $129 $128 $129 $136 $14 $141 $149 $151 $151 15 8 $114 84 82 77 82 6 4 41 45 51 47 38 54 5 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 1 New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 25 and 21 -- dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 21 (not shown above; before the housing boom) we still find a 7% drop between 21 and 21. The number of new home sales per year has not crept up much since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. The past three years, however, were QUITE different. There were a total of 82 new home sales in 216, then 77 in 217, and 82 again in 218. This is a welcome sign for new home builders -- and buyers!

[4] BUYER ACTIVITY 18 Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 171 16 158 14 12 8 6 74 84 133 141 128 13 119 99 19 93 63 67 87 14 137 133 132 97 111 87 112 79 69 85 9 128 128 124 119 19 12 111 72 62 84 4 2 Annual Pace: 1,324 contracts Annual Pace: 1,269 contracts Annual Pace: 1,3 contracts Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Strong contract activity is typically an indicator of strong months of sales to come. As shown above, and as you would expect, buyer activity peaks in the Spring. This past May we saw the highest number of buyers signing contracts EVER in our local market. It is so drastically different than every other month that it almost seems like an error - it s not. After a predictably slow month of contracts in December, we saw a sharp up-tick in January, similar to what we saw the previous January. We are likely to see a similar month of contract activity in February before things really start to heat up in March and April.

[5] INVENTORY LEVELS 6 Inventory Levels (end of month) 5 4 3 532 539 57 581 582 568 549 56 532 48 451 413 368 42 4 411 394 393 418 49 396 356 322 28 279 295 32 325 346 347 345 343 324 317 295 269 268 2 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Over the past several years, inventory levels have dipped lower and lower and lower. This has not, though, been accompanied by a decline in the pace of home sales. So -- if just as many (or more) buyers are buying, how are they doing it if inventory levels are so low? They re doing it with speed. The pace of home sales can increase, with inventory levels declining if the median days on market is also declining, which is definitely the case in our local market. So, plenty (maybe, maybe not) homes are being listed for sale, they are going under contract quickly, which keeps inventory levels low but the pace of home sales high.

[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Inventory Levels by Property Type Detached Homes Attached Homes 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 392 392 418 43 439 436 416 435 43 372 343 318 282 311 312 327 327 325 32 341 329 29 266 234 23 239 244 238 266 257 257 257 241 23 22 199 196 15 15 147 152 151 143 139 133 125 129 18 18 95 86 94 88 84 74 68 98 69 72 66 76 87 8 9 88 86 83 87 75 7 72 5 56 46 49 56 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of detached homes for sale has decreased by 15% over the past year, while the number of attached homes (townhouses, duplexes and condos) for sale has actually increased by 47% over the past year. We saw inventory levels increase a bit through the Spring and Summer, which did provide buyers with more options -- but we are likely to see these inventory levels decline further as we continue through the Winter season.

[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County 5 45 4 35 46 45 417 429 434 425 41 419 398 368 345 321 313 314 322 312 313 314 322 316 3 25 281 277 246 216 221 225 236 243 257 251 245 246 23 235 225 29 28 2 15 136 134 153 152 148 15 148 141 134 112 16 92 87 92 86 89 89 8 14 88 85 79 76 64 58 7 84 82 89 96 97 94 82 7 6 6 5 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Inventory levels have fallen 6% in Rockingham County over the past year but have actually increased by 3% in the City of Harrisonburg during the same timeframe. Of note -- while there are approximately twice as many home sales in the County than in the City -- there are more than three times as many homes for sale in the County than in the City. As such, the low inventory levels are much more of an issue in the City right now if we look at both sellers (supply) and buyers (demand). This is likely leading to the faster increases in median sales price in the City, and the lower median days on market in the City.

[6] DAYS ON MARKET Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings > 1 year 29 2% 6 12 months 96 8% > 1 year, 18, 7% < 3 days 63 24% 3 6 months 166 13% 6 12 months 6 22% 6 89 days 112 9% < 3 days 666 54% 3 59 days 26 1% 3 59 days 171 14% 3 6 months 71 26% 6 89 days 3 11% Median Days On Market: 23 Median Days On Market: 13 Declining inventory levels are contributing to an overall decline in the time it takes to sell a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The current median Days on Market is 23 days for homes that have sold in the past year. Remarkably, 54% of homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 3 days of having hit the market. Combine that with those that went under contract during the second month on the market, and you ll find that 68% of homes that sell go under contract within 6 days. The graph to the right, above, shows the length of time that each active listing has been on the market for sale.

[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months) $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k + 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 59 59 56 55 55 54 54 53 53 53 52 5 49 49 49 48 48 48 48 48 9% 4 31 31 32 31 33 32 33 33 32 33 33 33 32 32 33 34 34 37 37 38 38 39 38 38 38 +19% 3 2 1 12.4 12.3 12. 12.3 12.5 12. 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.8 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.2 13.3 13. 13.7 14. 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.1 14. 14. 6. 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5 8. 8.4 9. 8.6 8.8 9.3 9.3 8.8 8.8 +1% +29% The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have been declining over the past year in the under $2K category -- though likely because of limited inventory, and fewer properties existing in this range based on increasing home values. We have seen year-over-year increases in all other price ranges -- with the most significant comparative increase in the pace of home sales being in those properties over $4K in value.

[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Inventory Levels by Price Range $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k + 16 14 12 92 89 3% 8 85 82 4% 6 6 5 17% 4 42 47 +12% 2 Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. Inventory levels of homes under $2K have fallen dramatically over the past two years, with a 3% drop over the past year. Some of those homes have appreciated into the $2K-$3K price segment, where inventory levels have also decreased (-4%) over the past year. We have also seen an increase (+12%) in the availability of homes between $3K and $4K, though the highest price range ($4K+) has seen a decline (-17%) in homes for sale.

[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k + 16 14 Entire Market: 3. Months of Housing Supply 12 Month Average of 316 Active Listings 12 Month Average of 19 Sales/Month 12 1 9 8 6 6 36% 4 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 +1% 17% +6% With so many home sales (lots of buyers) and so few homes on the market (not so many sellers), there are low levels of supply in some price ranges in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that while it would take 6 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $4K if the same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months and if no new listings came on the market -- but it would only take two months (!!) to burn through the under $2K (and under $3K) inventory. Many consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers.

[8] LOTS AND LAND 45 Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre $12, 4 48 $99,9 $94, $, 35 3 34 $76,5 $8, 25 $54,5 $56,6 $59,9 $55, $54,5 $56,5 $54,9 $53,95 $59,65 $54,5 $58, $53,5 $6, 2 15 $42, Stability $4, 111 85 75 58 64 62 63 83 84 78 Stable-ish 64 83 82 $2, 5 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 4 $ With the exception of 216, we have seen between 78 and 84 lot sales of less than an acre for each of the past six years. This is a sharp decline from the 26-4 lot sales seen in 22-25, but it is an improvement over where things were (58-63 sales) between 29 and 212. From a value perspective, the sales prices of these less than an acre lots have also been rather stable -- fluctuating no further than between $53K and $6K over the past ten years. That is, of course, after a meteoric rise and then fall to/from $K. Given the trajectory of lot sales over the last few years, I expect we ll see something similar in 219.

[8] LOTS AND LAND Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more 2 $3, 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 $12,3 17 168 $17,713 $15, 77 $24,184 83 $2,833 57 $15,964 44 $13,957 28 $15, $14,981 51 49 $13,24 7 $9,932 58 $15,171 66 $1, 73 $15,827 88 $14,818 79 $6,393 $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ $5, 2 $1, 5 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 $15, Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County increased in pace during 217 to 88 land sales -- marking the highest year of sales since 25 -- but then declined again in 218 to 79 lot sales. The median price per acre also declined in 218 to $14,818. Of note -- some aspects of this median price per acre calculation are affected by which parcels actually sell in a given year. We saw an increase in buyer demand in 217, which seems to have lead to a further increase in the median price per acre, and then a decline in demand in 218 accompanied by a decline in prices.

[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS Recorded Trustee Deeds 1,8 1,669 1,6 1,57 1,438 1,4 1,248 1,39 1,26 1,33 1,2 1, 8 936 816 758 794 864 1,13 1,85 1,122 6 4 2 27 252 223 222 177 163 7 86 93 97 118 139 136 134 85 63 7 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales that did not involve a Realtor, nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is trending downward -- sharply in 218 -- and the pace of home sales is increasing much more quickly, despite having slowed slightly in 217.

[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS 6.% Average 3 Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.79% 3.62% 3.71% 3.66% 3.64% 3.48% 3.48% 3.43% 3.42% 3.47% 4.3% 4.32% 4.19% 4.16% 4.14% 4.3% 3.95% 3.88% 3.92% 3.82% 3.83% 3.94% 3.9% 3.99% 4.15% 4.4% 4.44% 4.61% 4.56% 4.55% 4.54% 4.52% 4.72% 4.86% 4.81% 4.55% 4.46% 3.% Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 3.9% 4.3% 4.% 4.1% 3.2% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% Harrisonburg Rockingham MSA Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.% 3.9% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 3.% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.% Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 As shown in the top graph above, for most of the past three years, home buyers have seen tremendously low interest rates -- almost always under 4% except in late 216 and during just about all of 218. Somewhat encouragingly, the average mortgage interest rate has started to decline again over the past three months and is now below 4.5%. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years to a current level of 2.4%. A low local unemployment rate and relatively low mortgage interest rates help our local housing market remain stable.

[1] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker Scott P. Rogers, a professional, responsive, knowledgeable, friendly Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 23 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Since 21, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors. A native of Montgomery County, Maryland, Scott earned a B.A. (2) and M.Ed. (22) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, a quadcopter (drone), property websites for each of his listings, 3D Walk Through technology and Virtual Reality. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 27, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as: HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com, SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com and HarrisonburgRealEstateResources.com. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, coaching middle school volleyball and operating TakeThemAMeal.com and PerfectPotluck.com. Questions? Contact Scott anytime... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 54-578-12 (mobile) scott@harrisonburghousingtoday.com Local Online Real Estate Resources How To Navigate The Home Purchasing Process BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com The Best Marketing Strategies For Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Property Search ScottPRogers.com Analysis and Commentary on our Local Real Estate Market HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Daily Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Fast Access to All New Listings of Homes For Sale NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Historical Record of Area Home Sales JustSoldInHarrisonburg.com Property Transfers in HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com Comprehensive Data on Single Family Home Neighborhoods HarrisonburgNeighborhoods.com Comprehensive Data on Area Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in HarrisonburgForeclosures.com