UNDERSTANDING CALIFORNIA LUXURY CLIENTS February 27, 2014 Oscar Wei, Senior Research Analyst
Sales of Existing Detached Homes California, Jan. 2014 Sales: 363,640 Units, -13.8%YTD, -13.8%YTY 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes California, January 2014: $410,990, Up 22.1%YTY $700,000 P: May-07 $594,530 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Sales of Existing Detached Homes California 2013 Sales: 413,870 Units, Down 5.9%YTY 700,000 ANNUALLY 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
Sales: Luxury home vs. the Rest of the Market Sales of $1M and Up Sales Under $1M 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2013 : Up 35.5% 225,000 2013 : Down 8.4% 220,000 215,000 210,000 205,000 200,000 195,000 0 2011 2012 2013 190,000 2011 2012 2013 SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Change in Sales by Price Range (Year-to-Year) 50% Jan-14 43.9% 40% 30% 23.7% 20% 10% 8.0% 0% -10% -6.4% -20% -30% -40% -35.1% $0 - $300k $300 - $500k $500 - $750k $750 - $1000k $1000k+ SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Sales Share by Price Range 60% Jan-13 Jan-14 50% 48% 40% 37% 30% 28% 30% 20% 10% 14% 18% 7% 5% 5% 9% 0% $0 - $300k $300 - $500k $500 - $750k $750 - $1000k $1000k+ SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Unsold Inventory Index California, January 2014: 4.3 Months 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Unsold Inventory Index By Price Range California, Jan 2013 vs. Jan 2014 Last Year This Year $1,000K+ 6.9 8.9 $750-1000K 5.0 5.1 $500-750K 3.4 4.1 $300-500K $0-300K 3.1 3.0 4.0 4.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Unsold Inventory Index By Price Range California, Dec 2013 vs. Jan 2014 Dec-13 Jan-14 $1,000K+ 4.3 6.9 $750-1000K 3.2 5.1 $500-750K $300-500K 2.7 2.8 4.0 4.1 $0-300K 3.0 4.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Unsold Inventory Index (Months) Price Range (Thousand) Jan-14 Dec-13 Jan-13 $1,000K+ 6.9 4.3 8.9 $750-1000K 5.1 3.2 5.0 $500-750K 4.1 2.7 3.4 $300-500K 4.0 2.8 3.1 $0-300K 4.0 3.0 3.0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Unsold Inventory Index (Months) Price Range (Thousand) 2013 2012 $1,000K+ 5.6 7.4 $750-1000K 3.6 4.9 $500-750K 3.1 3.9 $300-500K 2.9 3.6 $0-300K 2.8 3.3 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Change in Inventory by Price Range (Year-to-Year) 40% Jan-14 30% 20% 21.9% 30.9% 24.3% 10% 11.1% 0% -10% -20% -13.4% $0 - $300k $300 - $500k $500 - $750k $750 - $1000k $1000k+ SERIES: Inventory of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Survey Methodology 730 online surveys were received in November 2013. Respondents are Luxury clients who purchase/sell a home for over one million dollars. Maximum sampling error: ±3.5 percent at two standard deviations (a 95% confidence level).
PROFILE OF LUXURY CLIENTS
Type of Client Represented Buyer Seller Both 18% 41% 40% Q: Who did you represent in your last transaction?
TheTypical Luxury Client 74% College Educated 92% permanently reside in the United States 53Years Old 48% Single 71% Caucasian $350K Median Income
AboutThree-Quarters of LuxuryClients had a Post- Secondary Education 2.4% 8.1% Some High School 32.5% 13.0% High School Some College 2.4% Vocational/Technical School Four-Year College 41.5% Graduate School Q. What is the highest level of education your client had completed at the time of your last luxury transaction?
Singles made up 48% of LuxuryClients in 2013 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Married Single Other
Over 70% of Luxury Clients werewhite Buyers Sellers 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2% 2% 7% 16% 74% 73% 7% 7% 2% 5% 2% 3%
Client Profiles Luxury Buyers Traditional Buyers Luxury Sellers Traditional Sellers Age 46Years 38 Years 60Years 46Years Median Household Income Marital Status Single (57%); Married (24%) $350K $125K $275K $140K Single (37%); Married (63%) Single (44%); Married (30%) Single (32%); Married (48%)
Over 70% of Luxury Buyers werewhite Luxury Buyers 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Traditional Buyers 74% 37% 28% 2% 8% 7% 26% 7% 7% 1% 2% 0%
Over 70% of Luxury Sellers werewhite Luxury Sellers 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Traditional Sellers 73% 36% 26% 25% 12% 2% 16% 2% 5% 0% 3% 0%
Majority of Luxury HomeTransactions are not the Client s First Home Purchase Luxury Homes First-Time Buyer All Homes Repeat Buyer % First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average 50% 15% 40% 28% 30% 20% 85% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q. Was your last luxury transaction the client's first home purchase? SERIES: 2013 Annual Housing Market Survey and 2013 Luxury Clients Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
More than four of five luxury repeat buyers owned more than one property 40.0% 38% 35.0% 30.0% Mean: 2.4 properties 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 21% 17% 10.0% 9% 9% 5.0% 5% 0.0% 0 1 2 Q. How many other properties does your last luxury client own? 3 4 5+
International BuyersAre Purchasing Properties in California 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Luxury Homes All Homes SERIES: 2013 Housing Market Survey and 2013 Luxury Clients Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
PROFILE OF LUXURY PROPERTIES!
Majority of LuxuryTransactions weretraditional Sales 3.9% Other 3.0% Short Sale Foreclosure 0.1% 2.7% REO/bank-owned 90.3% Regular/Tradtional/Equity Sale 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
PropertyType Luxury Homes SFH Condo/Townhomes All Homes Others SFH 6.3% Condo/Townhomes 6.0% 7.6% 16.3% 86.1% 77.7% Others
Luxury properties often had a hilltop or ocean view Hilltop 41% Ocean view 28% Golf course 16% Mountain area 12% Oceanfront 10% Resort area 9% Lakefront 4% Ski resort 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Luxury Buyers intended Largely to use their Luxury Homes as their Primary Residence 90% 80% 79% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 10% 9% 2% 0% Primary Residence Vacation/Second Investment/Rental Home Property Other
PropertyValue Breakdown 80% 76% 70% 60% Median Price: $1,375,000 50% 40% 30% 20% 13% 10% 6% 3% 3% $5M - $10M $10M+ 0% $1M - $2M $2M - $3M $3M - $5M
BUYING AND SELLING PROCESS
BUYING
Main Reasons for Purchasing a Home Traditional Buyers Luxury Home Buyers 25% Desired Larger Home 20% Desired Better/Other Location Change in Family Status 11% Changed Jobs/Relocated 11% Investment/Tax Advantages 5% Desired Smaller Home 5% To Rent it Out 2% Affordable Price 2% 0% 15% Desired Better Location Change in Family Status 4% Desired Smaller Home 4% Changed Jobs 4% Retirement/Move to Retirement Community 3% 2% Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default 10% 9% Other 11% Other 17% Desired Larger Home 3% To Flip it for a Profit 21% Investment/ Tax Considerations 6% Tired of Renting 23% Tired of Renting 20% 30% Q. What primarily motivated the client in your last luxury transaction to buy within the past year? 0% 10% 20% 30%
Reasons for Buying All Homes FirstTime HomebuyersVs. Repeat Homebuyers First-Time Buyers 0% 10% Repeat Buyers 20% 30% Tired of Renting Desired Larger Home Investment/ Tax Considerations Desired Better Location Change in Family Status Changed Jobs Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default Desired Smaller Home Retirement/Move to Retirement Community Other Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property? SERIES: 2013 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 40% 50% 60%
The Median Number ofyears that Luxury Buyers Intended to Keep the Property was 10. 6 Traditional 10 Luxury 0 2 4 6 8 10 Q. How many years does the client in your last luxury transaction intend to keep the property?
One Third of Luxury Buyers Paid withallcash 40% 35% % of All Cash Sales 35% 30% 27% 25% 20% 15% More than a third of luxury buyers paid with all cash The share of all cash buyers had been on the rise for overall sales until this year 10% 5% 0% SERIES: 2013 Housing Market Survey and 2013 Luxury Clients Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Luxury Buyers Traditional Buyers
Luxury BuyersTypically Pay More Down Payment thantraditional Buyers The average down payment for luxury buyers is 30 percent of the sale price Down Payment The average down payment for traditional home buyers is 25 percent of the sale price
Majority of Luxury HomeClients used their Personal Savings as the source of their down payment 8.0% 1.4% 7.1% 27.8% Proceeds from a Previous Investment Personal Savings 1031 Exchange Other Don't Know/Unsure 55.7% What was the source of the down payment in your last luxury transaction?
Source of Down Payment Breakdown by Buyer Type First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers Luxury Buyers Personal Savings 70.5% 55.7% 55.7% Proceeds from a Previous Investment/Residence 0.0% 24.6% 27.8% Other 29.5% 19.7% 16.5%
Differences in Financing 65 percent of luxury buyers obtained financing to purchase their luxury home Approximately 73 percent of traditional homebuyers obtained financing These results are not surprising given that luxury clients tend to be in higher income brackets and more able to pay all cash for a house
Difficulty inobtaining Financing (1=Very Easy to 10=Very Difficult) 9 Traditional Buyer 4 Luxury Buyers - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Q. Please rate how difficult it was for the client in your last luxury transaction to obtain financing.
Luxury clients utilized their personal contacts to find their agents. 100% 90% 80% 70% Other 60% Internet 50% 40% Advertising 30% Relationships/Contacts /Referrals 20% 10% 0% Tradtional Buyer Tradtional Seller Luxury Client Q. How did you find the client in your last luxury transaction?
How Agents Find Luxury Clients Client is a friend 18% Referral from a friend 15% Referral from a previous buyer 12% Referral from another agent 9% Prior dealings with my brokerage 8% Previous Client 8% Open House 7% Client found me online 7% Client is a relative 4% Client responded to my ad 3% For Sale Sign 2% Other 10% 0% 5% Q. How did you find your client in your last luxury transaction? 10% 15% 20%
Agents spent about 5 weeks on average looking for properties with their luxury buyers 12 10 10 Weeks 8 6 5 4 2 A luxurybuyer typically viewed 10 properties with his/her agent before making a home purchase. A traditional buyer viewed 10 properties with his/her agent before making a home purchase 0 Luxury Buyers Traditional Buyers Q. How many weeks did you spend looking for a property with your client in your last luxury transaction? Q. How many properties did you view with your client prior to the client making a purchase in your last transaction?
Luxury Home Buyer Made FewerOffersThan a Typical Home Buyer # of Offers Made on Other Properties Luxury Buyers 35% Median # of Offers Traditional Buyers 30% 3 Traditional Buyers 25% 20% 15% 10% 1 Luxury Buyers 5% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6+ Q. How many offers did your last client make on other properties? 0 1 2 3 4
SELLING
Main Reasons for Selling Luxury Home Change in Family Status 18% Desired Smaller Home 18% Changed Jobs/Relocated 13% Desired Better/Other Location 12% Desired Larger Home 9% To Flip it for a Profit 5% No Longer Wanted/Needed a Vacation Property 4% Investment/Tax Advantages 4% Affordable Price 2% Other 15% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Q. What primarily motivated the client in your last luxury transaction to sell within the past year?
Traditional Sellers - Reasons for Selling Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default 16% Desired Larger Home 13% Change in Family Status 12% Desired Better Location 11% Investment/ Tax Considerations 11% Retirement/Move to Retirement Community 10% Changed Jobs 6% Desired Smaller Home 6.0% Other 17% 0% 2% 4% 6% Q. What was the single most important reason for selling the property? 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Luxury SellersTypically KeepTheir Properties Longer thantraditionalsellers 8 Traditional Sellers 10 Luxury Sellers 0 2 4 How many years did the seller own the property in your last luxury transaction? 6 8 10
Luxury Home Sellers Received FewerOffersThan Traditional Home Sellers # of Offers Made on Other Properties Luxury Sellers 35% Median # of Days on Market Traditional Sellers Median # of offers received by luxury sellers: 2 Median # of offers received by traditional sellers: 3 30% 11 Traditional Sellers 25% 20% 15% 10% 30 Luxury Sellers 5% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 Q. How many offers did your last client received? 6 or more 0 10 20 30 40
Over aquarter of Luxury Homes SoldAboveAsking Price 60% Luxury Homes All Homes 50% 50% A luxuryhome typically sold with 1 percent discount below its asking price in 2013 A traditional home typically sold with 0 percent discount below its asking price in 2013. 40% 30% 27% 20% 10% 0% % of Sales Above Asking Price Q. What was the initial/listing price of your last transaction? Q. What was the final sales price of your last transaction?
Over 9 out of 10 Properties were marketed through an MLS MLS 91% Open House 37% Advertisement 35% Private Listing 10% Builder/Developer 4% Other 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q. How was the property in your last luxury transaction marketed? Select all that apply. 80% 100%
Marketing through the MLS was still the most effective way to sell a Luxury property. MLS Open House Private Listing Advertisement Builder/Developer Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Q. Which of these marketing techniques was most effective in your last luxury transaction? 70%
The MedianAmount spent on marketing a luxury property was $1,000. 14% Photographer 11% 47% 1% Videographer Designer Architect Other None 14% 13% Q. Which of the following professionals did you hire to help assist you market the property in your last luxury transaction? Select all that apply.
Marketing Breakdown The median amount that sellers spent on a photographer was 300 dollars. The median amount that sellers spent on a videographer was 250 dollars. The median amount that sellers spent on a designer was 500 dollars.
Luxury Home PricesAre Expected to Increase Luxury Buyer Traditional Buyer Luxury Seller Traditional Seller Up 71% 36% 67% 43% Down 1% 20% 2% 21% Flat/Unsure 27% 44% 31% 36% Up 79% 60% 76% 58% Down 3% 17% 3% 23% Flat/Unsure 18% 23% 21% 19% 1Year 5Years Q Do you think home prices in the neighborhood where you purchased will go up, down, or stay flat in one year, in five years?
What LuxuryClients Needed the MostAssistance with?
CONCLUDING REMARKS
TheTakeaway Sales of luxury properties will grow steadily as the economy continues to improve International buyers are purchasing high-end properties in California Luxury clients need help, especially in the negotiation process Keep in touch with your clients
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