OECD Working Party on Territorial Indicators Workshop

OECD Working Party on Territorial Indicators Workshop Modernising statistical systems for better data on regions and cities Housing policy issues and relevance of Tax Authority data to produce house prices and rents statistics in Portugal FRANCISCO VALA Statistics Portugal JORGE MALHEIROS CEG-IGOT-University of Lisbon Paris, 5 th November2018

AGENDA 1 Debates on housing and policy issues 2 3 Key questions to be answered in housing access and housing inequality Tax Authority data to produce house prices and rents and envisaged new housing market statistics 4 Final remarks

Debates on housing and policy issues A financial perspective The 2018 IMF annual report for Portugal addresses the housing market in the Macro-Financial Issues and Policies section stating that: Housing prices continue to increase, but there is no significant overvaluation yet Higher prices especially in Lisboa, Porto and the Algarve Increases driven largely by transactions on existing dwellings by nonresidents Share of housing transactions financed by Portuguese mortgages has been growing since 2015

Proportion of owner occupied dwellings with mortgage, Portugal and municipality, 1991, 2011 and 2011 50 % 40 42,87 30 31,45 20 22,33 10 0 1991 2001 2011 73%ofdwellingsoccupiedbytheowner Progress of housing ownership with mortgages as the dominant form of housing access PT % ] 42.87 ; 70 ] ] 32 ; 42.87 ] ] 22 ; 32 ] ] 7 ; 22 ] Territorial Limits Municipality NUTS III NUTS II Frequencies Municipalities 25 73 11 7179 80 7169 116 85 31 112 110 71 70 An intense phenomena in Metropolitan areas, the Algarve and several mediumsizedcities 0 50 km Source: Statistics Portugal, Population and housing census

112 062 Proportion of urban estates purchase and sale contracts with mortgage and Total number of urban real estates purchase and sale contracts, Portugal, 2011-2017 180 000 No. % 60 55,60 168 798 160 000 140 000 120 000 40,47 50 40 100 000 80 000 30 60 000 20 40 000 20 000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 0 Source: Directorate-General for Justice Policy, Operations over real estates Reduction of real estate market activity during the crisis with an intense decline in contracts with mortgages Strong reanimation of the market after 2014: raise of the number of transactions Increase in the proportion of contracts with loans

Proportion of real estate sales to non-residents in the total of real estate sales, Portugal, 2012-2017 18% 16 14 12 10 10,66 15,74 14,38 12,48 11,46 8 8,41 6 4 2 thousands euros 1 193 862 596 931 298 466 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Increasing presence of foreigner investment in the Portuguese Real estate market, but Progressive reduction in the past 3 years Uneven distribution of the foreign regional investment in housing: HighervaluesinAlgarveandMA More expressive in touristic regions such as Madeira, Oeste and the South % Territorial limits NUTS III NUTS II ] 11.5 ; 40.9 ] ] 8 ; 11.5 ] ] 5 ; 8 ] [ 2.4 ; 5 ] Frequencies NUTS III 37 4 52 5 59 10 52 6 0 50 km Source: Directorate-General for Justice Policy, Operations over real estates

Median value per m² of dwellings sales, Portugal, NUTS III and municipality, 2 nd Q2018 Algarve A.M.Lisboa R.A.Madeira Santana Pampilhosa da Serra PORTUGAL A.M.Porto Alentejo Litoral Região de Coimbra Oeste Região de Aveiro Alto Minho Cávado Monchique Moita Arouca Alcácer do Sal Pampilhosa da Serra Bombarral S. Vouga Melgaço Alentejo Central Portel M. Basto Ave C. Pêra Região de Leiria Lajes do Pico R.A.Açores Aguiar Beira Viseu Dão Lafões Lezíria do Tejo Tâmega e Sousa Médio Tejo Alto Tâmega T.Trás-os-Montes Douro Beira Baixa Baixo Alentejo Beiras e S.Estrela Alto Alentejo Chamusca Resende Sardoal Boticas Sines Aveiro Caminha Coimbra Nazaré V. Verde Esposende Vimioso F. Espada Cinta Penamacor Mértola Fª.C.Rodrigo Fronteira Évora V. N. Famalicão Leiria Ponta Delgada Viseu Benavente Penafiel Ourém Chaves Mirandela Vila Real Castelo Branco Beja Covilhã Portalegre Funchal Porto Loulé Lisboa Lisboa / m² 0 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 2 400 2 800 NUTS III Lowest municipal value Highest municipal value PT /m 2 ] 969 ; 2 753 ] ] 620 ; 969 ] ] 440 ; 620 ] [ 130 ; 440 ] Not applicable Frequencies Municipalities Territorial Limits 38 95 77 95 Municipality NUTS III NUTS II 0 50 km Source: Statistics Portugal, Statistics on house prices at local level

Debates on housing and policy issues A sociospatial perspective The 2017 UN report on adequate housing in Portugal puts focus on the following topics: access to housing, affordability and quality of housing, including informal settlements and housing conditions of deprived social groups social housing, including its extension, maintenance and localization touristification and short-term rental and its effects on housing market prices and on community networks and the social fabric golden visas program and its eligibility criteria regarding the purchase of real estate property and possible effects on housing market prices

Tourism dynamics and housing prices Number of tourist accommodation establishments by type, 2013-2017 3 000 No. 2 500 Local Accommodation 2663 70 35 Ratio of local accommodation per dwellings stock and Median value per m² of dwellings sales, Portugal and NUTS 3, 4thQ 2017 PT= 932 / m² 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 1 462 1 051 832 Local accomodation per 1000 dwellings stock (No.) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: INE, Guests stays and other data on hotel activity survey 30 65 Hotel establishments 1758 RTHT // 1419 25 20 15 10 5 0 Beiras e S. Estrela Alto Tâmega Alto Minho Cávado Médio Tejo Oeste Alentejo Litoral R. Aveiro R. Coimbra Alentejo Central R.A.Açores A.M. Porto R.A. Madeira 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 Median value of dwellings sales ( / m²), 4 th Q2017 NUTS III with LQ higher than 1 Algarve A.M. Lisboa PT= 1.06 Increase of local accommodation establishments from 2014 onwards especially in touristic regions and historical centers of main cities

Ratio of conventional dwellings of usual residence rented per 100 dwellings occupied by the owner, Portugal and municipality, 1991, 2011 and 2011 50 No. 42,54 40 30 27,54 27,47 20 10 0 1991 2001 2011 Evidences of a rental market limited and in decline, but experiencing a recovery in the crisis period Rental housing market stocks particularly relevant in Lisbon and Porto PT No. ] 51 ; 90 ] ] 27.47 ; 51 ] ] 14 ; 27.47] ] 1 ; 14 ] Territorial Limits Municipality NUTS III NUTS II Frequencies Municipalities 25 11 2 71 71 4769 116 111 110 31 112 110 148 149 Also relevant in the inner metropolitan crownsandinsomemedium-sizedcities 0 50 km Source: Statistics Portugal, Population and housing census

Median value per m² of new lease agreements of dwellings, Portugal, NUTS III and municipality, 2017 Sub-regional contribution to Total new lease agreements, 2017 A. M. Lisboa A. M. Porto Algarve Região de Coimbra Região de Aveiro Cávado Oeste Região de Leiria Ave Alto Minho Lezíria do Tejo Viseu Dão Lafões Tâmega e Sousa Médio Tejo Beiras e S. Estrela R. A. Açores Alentejo Central R. A. Madeira T.Trás-os-Montes Douro Alto Alentejo Beira Baixa Alentejo Litoral Alto Tâmega Baixo Alentejo 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 % PT /m 2 ] 4.39 ; 9.62 ] ] 3.3 ; 4.39 ] ] 2.7 ; 3.3 ] [ 1.6 ; 2.7 ] Not applicable Territorial Limits Municipality NUTS III NUTS II Frequencies Municipalities 37 4 52 6 59 6 52 9 0 50 km Source: Statistics Portugal, Statistics on house rents at local level

Median value per m² of new lease agreements of dwellings, Portugal, NUTS III and municipality, 2017 A. M. Lisboa Moita R. A. Madeira Machico Funchal Algarve S. Brás Alportel Albufeira A. M. Porto V. Cambra Porto PORTUGAL Belmonte Alentejo Litoral Região de Coimbra Oeste Região de Aveiro Cávado Alentejo Central R. A. Açores Região de Leiria Lezíria do Tejo Baixo Alentejo Alto Minho Viseu Dão Lafões Ave Médio Tejo Alcácer do Sal Sines Mortágua Coimbra Bombarral T. Vedras S. Vouga Aveiro Amares V. Viçosa Esposende Évora Horta Praia da Vitória P. Mós Leiria Chamusca Azambuja Moura Beja P. Barca Viana do Castelo Sátão Viseu C. de Basto V.N. Famalicão Alcanena Tomar DouroV.N. Foz Côa Vila Real Alto Tâmega Valpaços Chaves Alto Alentejo C. Maior Pontede Sor Beira Baixa Castelo Branco Beiras e S. Estrela Belmonte Covilhã Tâmega e Sousa Lousada Penafiel M. Cavaleiros T.Trás-os-Montes Bragança Lisboa Lisboa PT /m 2 ] 4.39 ; 9.62 ] ] 3.3 ; 4.39 ] ] 2.7 ; 3.3 ] [ 1.6 ; 2.7 ] Not applicable Territorial Limits Municipality NUTS III NUTS II Frequencies Municipalities 37 4 52 6 59 6 52 9 0 5 10 / m² Highest municipal value Lowest municipal value NUTS III 0 50 km Source: Statistics Portugal, Statistics on house rents at local level

Ratio of social housing dwellings per 100 dwellings stock, Portugal and municipality, 2012 and 2015 2,3 2,0 2,00 2,02 1,8 // 1,5 0,0 2012 2015 Residual stock of public housing (2%) and production negligible in the last decade Public housing stocks particularly important in Lisbon and Porto metropolitan areas and in some middle-sized cities % ] 5.0 ; 10.4 ] ] 2.02 ; 5.0 ] PT ] 1.0 ; 2.02 ] ] 0 ; 1.0 ] 0 Territorial Limits Municipality NUTS III NUTS II Frequencies Municipalities 38 53 172 37 0 50 km Source: INE, Social Housing Survey and Statistics on construction works completed 8

Proportion of overcrowded living dwellings, Portugal and municipality, 1991, 2001 and 2011 30 % 25 22,96 20 15 15,9 10 11,36 5 0 1991 2001 2011 General trend to a reduction in overcrowding: reduction in family size; standards of new housing Lower overcrowding in areas combining ageing and higher levels of emigration PT % ] 15 ; 33 ] ] 11.36 ; 15 ] ] 8 ; 11.36 ] ] 3 ; 8 ] Territorial Limits Municipality NUTS III NUTS II Frequencies Municipalities 25 11 23 71 71 5969 116 111 31 112 110 115 Higher over crowding in the Algarve, LMA, Northwest and Autonomous RegionsofAzoresandMadeira 0 50 km Source: Statistics Portugal, Population and housing census

Debates on housing and policy issues New generation of Housing Policies in PT In 2018 the Government outlined new policy instruments to reach the following strategic targets: To meet the needs of families that live in a severe situation of housing deprivation To guarantee access to housing for those who are unable to meet their needs in the housing market To set the conditions so that rehabilitation is the main form of intervention on buildings and at the urban development level To promote social and territorial inclusion and opportunities for housing choice Information for monitoring: housing prices and rents and accessibility

Key questions to be answered Data needs at regional and local levels Housing stock, production and rehabilitation Construction works Stats Housing prices and rents evolution by segment Evolution of housing market tenure Metrics on affordability and families effort to housing access Foreign demand and corporate investments in the housing market Social housing dynamics Social Housing Survey Metrics on housing conditions Survey on Income and Living Conditions Impact of housing market regulation, including supply and demand side subsidies, fiscal benefits and spatial planning Impact of touristification in the housing market

National Statistical System - Legal basis Law no. 22/2008 Establishesprinciples,rulesandstructureoftheNSS Framework for the production of official statistics in PT It defines the mandate for Statistics Portugal to have access to administrative data Access to administrative data is usually framed by means of a bilateral Protocol Protocol with Tax Authority First established in 2005 and reviewed in April 2018 It includes now more detailed and disaggregated data covering several tax domains Relevant for housing statistics Data on Patrimony (Municipal Property Transfer Tax, Municipal Property Tax and Lease Agreements) and Data on Income

Tax Authority data to produce house prices and rents statistics Housepricesstatistics quarterly,uptoparishlevel+500mgrid: Municipal Property Transfer Tax (IMT): from which the transaction prices are obtained flow data Municipal Property Tax (IMI): from which identifying characteristics of the transacted dwelling are obtained stock data House rents statistics yearly, up to municipality: Communication of lease agreements (Stamp tax): from which the house rental value of new lease agreements are obtained flow data Municipal Property Tax(IMI) stock data The link between sources is made at the dwelling level Data transmission framed by the new protocol will include pseudonymized data and characteristics of fiscal individuals

Tax Authority data to produce house prices Value Use Area Use Category Typology Flats Disseminated outputs Median value per m2 of dwellings sales ( ) Category of housing unit, Typology, Flats Municipal Property Transfer Tax(IMT) Dwelling ID Municipal Property Tax (IMI) Dwellings sales (No.) Possible new outputs Transactional intensity (No. of times the same asset has been sold in a period time) NEW Owner tax number Resident/ Non-resident Possible new outputs Median value per m 2 of dwellings sales ( ) Individual / corporation investment Dwellings sales (No.) Individual / corporation investment Median value per m 2 of dwellings sales ( ) National/foreign investment Dwellings sales (No.) National/foreign investment

Tax Authority data to produce house rentals NEW Value Rental duration Lease agreements (Stamp tax) Dwelling ID Dwelling ID Owner tax number Resident/ Non-resident Tenants tax number NEW Area Housing characteristics Municipal Property Tax (IMI) Disseminated outputs New lease agreements of dwellings (No.) Median house rental value per m 2 of new lease agreements of dwellings ( ) Possible new outputs Duration of rental agreements (Months) Possible new outputs New lease agreements of dwellings (No.) resident/ non-resident owners New lease agreements of dwellings (No.) Individual / corporations Median house rental value per m 2 of new lease agreements of dwellings ( ) Individual / corporations Median house rental value per m 2 of new lease agreements of dwellings ( ) resident / non-resident owners NEW Possible new outputs Electronic receipt Individual ID Individual Tax Income(IRS) Families effort rate by social economic goups

Final remarks Tax Authority data, due to its high spatial granularity and domains covered, is extremely relevant to provide new statistics for monitoring the housing market evolution, but viability analysis for new statistics will still have to be carried out Housing prices and rents evolution by segment Metrics on affordability and families effort to housing access Foreign demand and corporate investments in the housing market Stronger integration at micro level of Tax Authority data with other sources is essential to leverage the insights on housing and real estate markets the single system of real estate codification being put in place for Public Administration will be crucial for further data integration