Manhattan New Dev. Market Report 2012 4th Quarter
TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 03 Introduction 04 Market Snapshot 09 Neighborhood Trends 09 Battery Park City 10 Chelsea 11 East Village 12 Financial District 13 Gramercy Park 14 Greenwich Village 15 Harlem 16 Lower East Side 17 Midtown East 18 Midtown West 19 Murray Hill 20 SoHo 21 TriBeCa 22 Upper East Side 23 Upper West Side 24 The Report Explained page 2
INTRODUCTION MNS is proud to present the Fourth Quarter 2012 edition of our New Development Market Report. New Development Sales data, defined as such Arms-Length first offering transactions where the seller is considered a Sponsor, was compiled from the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) for sponsor sales that traded during the Fourth Quarter of 2012 (10/01/12 12/31/12). All data summarized is on a median basis. page 3
MARKET SNAPSHOT Market Snapshot Year-Over-Year 15% Quarter-Over-Quarter 3.2% Year-Over-Year Median Sales 21% Quarter-Over-Quarter Median Sales 8.9% Manhattan New Development Sales Inventory.04% from last quarter Neighborhood with the Most New Dev Sales Upper West Side - 17% of Manhattan New Dev. Sales Total New Development Sales Volume 36% to $826 Million from $608 Million Largest Quarterly Up-Swing Greenwich Village $1,973/SF from $1,436/SF Largest Quarterly Down-Swing East Village $993 from $1,540 Sales $850K from $3,279,656 Highest New Development Sale 350 West Broadway PH - $17,564,812 Highest New Development Sale 80 Columbus Circle NT68C - $4,540/SF Market Summary This past quarter proved to be one of Manhattans busiest quarters in a while. With sellers and investors being uncertain about potential tax increases in 2013, many hurried to sell their properties by year end. With low interest rates and eager sellers, many buyers took advantage and are now calling Manhattan their new home or calling a different neighborhood their new home in The Big Apple. The amount of new Development Sales that took place this past quarter was up slightly from the prior quarter. Even though there was a minor increase, actual sales volume increased 36% to $826M. The median sales price was up 8.9% from 3Q12 from $1,075,000 to $1,171,146. The median price per square foot had a smaller rise, up 3.2% from $1,062 to $1,096. While we are coming off of a strong quarter, on a yearly basis the numbers are still down. Median sales price was down 21%, and median price per square foot was down 15%. Comparing this yearly comparison to last quarters one can see that the market is heading upwards. Last quarter median sales showed a 30% drop from prior year while this quarter only had a 21% drop. page 4
MARKET SNAPSHOT Market Up-Swings Greenwich Village had the highest increase in median price per square foot at 37%. Last quarter this neighborhood had the highest new development sale. This past quarter there were 11 new development sales with a median sale price of $3,425,000, and median price per square foot of $1,973. The million dollar sales benchmark remained strong for new developments as MNS recorded 224 out of 393 over $1M. There were 29 sales between the $0-$499,999 range, and the other 140 sales were between $500,000 and $999,999. The Upper West Side had another strong quarter. Median price per square foot was up 5% from prior quarter. In Lincoln Square, 235 West 71st street produced over $15M worth of sales. About a mile away, 15 central Park West had two noteworthy sales totaling over $19M. Market Down-Swings Heading over to Murray Hill, we tracked another decline this quarter. There were more New Development sales this quarter than prior but still low at 13. The lack of inventory continues to be an explanation for the decline. Reviewing the numbers reveals a 17% decrease in median price per square foot, and a 7% decrease in median sale price, currently at $995,000. Inventory Analysis The Upper West Side had the highest amount of sales this past quarter at 65. Trailing not so far behind was Battery Park City and Chelsea. There were 48 New Development sales in Battery Park City, and 46 New Development Sales in Chelsea. These three neighborhoods made up 40% of all the New Development Sales this past quarter. With the development of The Hudson Yards project the Chelsea market should continue to be one of the leading neighborhoods on the New Development front. For the second quarter in a row the Upper West Side was a big contributor to the total amount of New Development Sales. MNS is going to continue to track and monitor the West Side as we enter the first quarter of 2013. In tracking the neighborhoods that sold the most amount of 4Q12 new development inventory per unit size: 20% 20% 20% 23% Studios Financial District One Bedrooms Battery Park City Two Bedrooms Battery Park City Three Bedrooms Upper West Side page 5
MARKET SNAPSHOT 4Q12 By Neighborhood $ 1,624 4Q12 Median Sales By Neighborhood $ 2,699,666 $ 1,108,874 $ 2,240,150 $ 954,667 $ 796,500 $ 807,300 $ 1,308 $ 1,808 $ 1,180 $ 995 $ 985 Harlem Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown West Midtown East Murray Hill Chelsea Gramercy Park Greenwich Village East Village SoHo Lower East Side TriBeCa Finantial District Battery Park City $ 600,000 $ 2,000,000 $ 1,055,000 $ 995,000 $ 1,321,179 $ 3,425,000 $ 850,000 $ 3,767,525 $ 1,355,000 $ 674 $ 1,415 $ 1,065 $ 1,138 $ 1,226 $ 1,973 $ 993 $ 1,698 $ 1,006 Harlem Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown West Midtown East Murray Hill Chelsea Gramercy Park Greenwich Village East Village SoHo Lower East Side TriBeCa Finantial District Battery Park City page 6
MARKET SNAPSHOT % Of Total Sponsor Sales - Borough-Wide 7% 4Q12 Average Monthly Absorption Rate 0.3 7 9 12 11 16 0.3% 5% 9% 9% 12% Harlem Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown West Midtown East Murray Hill Chelsea Gramercy Park Greenwich Village East Village SoHo Lower East Side TriBeCa Finantial District Battery Park City 2 1 4 4 8 9 13 15 22 2% 3% 3% 1% 6% 7% 10% 12% 17% Harlem Upper West Side Upper East Side Midtown West Midtown East Murray Hill Chelsea Gramercy Park Greenwich Village East Village SoHo Lower East Side TriBeCa Finantial District Battery Park City page 7
MANHATTAN 4Q12 Unit Mix Of New Development Sales Studios 13% 1 Bedrooms 28% 2 Bedrooms 19% 3 Bedrooms 39% Manhattan Quarterly Tracking $1,300 $2,500,000 $1,217 $1,133 $1,975,000 $1,050 $1,450,000 $967 $883 $925,000 $800 $400,000 page 8
BATTERY PARK CITY Battery Park City By Unit Size ($985/SF Median) Studios $926 1 Bedrooms $945 2 Bedrooms $1,037 1500+ SF $1,006 % Of Sales Within Battery Park City Studios 16.7% 1 Bedrooms 41.7% 2 Bedrooms 31.3% 1500+ SF 10.4% Battery Park City Quarterly Tracking $1,200 $2,500,000 $1,117 $1,033 $1,975,000 $950 $1,450,000 $867 $783 $925,000 $700 $400,000 page 9
CHELSEA Chelsea By Unit Size ($1,226/SF Median) Studios $1,312 1 Bedrooms $1,227 2 Bedrooms $1,326 1500+ SF $1,044 % Of Sales Within Chelsea Studios 8.7% 1 Bedrooms 30.6% 2 Bedrooms 23.9% 1500+ SF 43.5% Chelsea Quarterly Tracking $1,500 $3,000,000 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $2,540,000 $2,080,000 $1,620,000 $1,160,000 $900 $700,000 page 10
EAST VILLAGE East Village By Unit Size ($993/SF Median) Studios 1 Bedrooms $1,101 2 Bedrooms $885 1500+ SF % Of Sales Within East Village Studios 1 Bedrooms 50% 2 Bedrooms 50% 1500+ SF East Village Quarterly Tracking $2,000 $4,000,000 $1,533 $3,100,000 $2,200,000 $1,067 $1,300,000 $600 $400,000 page 11
FINANCIAL DISTRICT Financial District By Unit Size ($995/SF Median) Studios $997 1 Bedrooms $914 2 Bedrooms $1,304 1500+ SF $993 % Of Sales Within Financial District Studios 32.4% 1 Bedrooms 29.4% 2 Bedrooms 17.6% 1500+ SF 17.5% Financial District Quarterly Tracking $1,300 $1,500,000 $1,125 $1,300,000 $1,100,000 $950 $900,000 $775 $700,000 $600 $500,000 page 12
GRAMERCY PARK Gramercy Park By Unit Size ($1,808/SF Median) Studios 1 Bedrooms 2 Bedrooms 1500+ SF $1,808 % Of Sales Within Gramercy Park Studios 1 Bedrooms 2 Bedrooms 1500+ SF 100% Gramercy Park Quarterly Tracking $1,900 $3,000,000 $1,675 $2,375,000 $1,450 $1,750,000 $1,225 $1,125,000 $1,000 $500,000 page 13
GREENWICH VILLAGE Greenwich Village By Unit Size ($1,873/SF Median) Studios $1,373 1 Bedrooms $1,239 2 Bedrooms $1,688 1500+ SF $2,520 % Of Sales Within Greenwich Village Studios 9.1% 1 Bedrooms 18.2% 2 Bedrooms 27.3% 1500+ SF 45.5% Greenwich Village Quarterly Tracking $4,000 $8,000,000 $7,035,714 $3,250 $6,071,429 $2,500 $1,750 $5,107,143 $4,142,857 $3,178,571 $2,214,286 $1,000 $1,250,000 page 14
HARLEM Harlem By Unit Size ($674/SF Median) Studios $674 1 Bedrooms $688 2 Bedrooms $620 1500+ SF $727 % Of Sales Within Harlem Studios 2.6% 1 Bedrooms 41% 2 Bedrooms 25.6% 1500+ SF 30.8% Harlem Quarterly Tracking $700 $700,000 $620 $625,000 $540 $550,000 $460 $380 $475,000 $300 $400,000 page 15
LOWER EAST SIDE Lower East Side By Unit Size ($1,180/SF Median) Studios $1,108 1 Bedrooms $1,192 2 Bedrooms $1,140 1500+ SF $1,464 % Of Sales Within Lower East Side Studios 40% 1 Bedrooms 20% 2 Bedrooms 15% 1500+ SF 25% Lower East Side Quarterly Tracking $1,300 $1,800,000 $1,175 $1,540,000 $1,280,000 $1,050 $1,020,000 $925 $760,000 $800 $500,000 page 16
MIDTOWN EAST Midtown East By Unit Size ($1,065/SF Median) Studios 1 Bedrooms $1,136 2 Bedrooms $1,065 1500+ SF % Of Sales Within Midtown East Studios 1 Bedrooms 28.6% 2 Bedrooms 71.4% 1500+ SF Midtown East Quarterly Tracking $1,300 $2,000,000 $1,217 $1,750,000 $1,133 $1,500,000 $1,050 $1,250,000 $967 $1,000,000 $883 $750,000 $800 $500,000 page 17
MIDTOWN WEST Midtown West By Unit Size ($1,308/SF Median) Studios $1,148 1 Bedrooms $1,306 2 Bedrooms $1,094 1500+ SF $2,394 % Of Sales Within Midtown West Studios 17.1% 1 Bedrooms 37.1% 2 Bedrooms 20% 1500+ SF 25.7% Midtown West Quarterly Tracking $1,600 $2,500,000 $1,420 $1,240 $1,060 $880 $700 $2,257,143 $2,014,286 $1,771,429 $1,528,571 $1,285,714 $1,042,857 $800,000 page 18
MURRAY HILL Murray Hill By Unit Size ($1,138/SF Median) Studios $985 1 Bedrooms $1,167 2 Bedrooms 1500+ SF $1,156 % Of Sales Within Murray Hill Studios 15.4% 1 Bedrooms 46.2 2 Bedrooms 1500+ SF 38.5% Murray Hill Quarterly Tracking $1,600 $2,000,000 $1,420 $1,240 $1,466,667 $1,060 $933,333 $880 $700 $400,000 page 19
SOHO SoHo By Unit Size ($1,698/SF Median) Studios $2,089 1 Bedrooms $1,734 2 Bedrooms 1500+ SF $1,664 % Of Sales Within SoHo Studios 8.7% 1 Bedrooms 17.4% 2 Bedrooms 1500+ SF 73.9% SoHo Quarterly Tracking $4,000 $10,000,000 $3,250 $7,750,000 $2,500 $5,500,000 $1,750 $3,250,000 $1,000 $1,000,000 page 20
TRIBECA Tribeca By Unit Size ($1,006/SF Median) Studios $778 1 Bedrooms $1,023 2 Bedrooms $1,200 1500+ SF $1,004 % Of Sales Within Tribeca Studios 14.8% 1 Bedrooms 25.9% 2 Bedrooms 3.7% 1500+ SF 55.6% Tribeca Quarterly Tracking $1,900 $6,000,000 $1,675 $4,625,000 $1,450 $3,250,000 $1,225 $1,875,000 $1,000 $500,000 page 21
UPPER EAST SIDE Upper East Side By Unit Size ($1,624/SF Median) Studios $1,756 1 Bedrooms $1,088 2 Bedrooms $2,458 1500+ SF $1,624 % Of Sales Within Upper East Side Studios 3.8% 1 Bedrooms 11.5% 2 Bedrooms 7.7% 1500+ SF 76.9% Upper East Side Quarterly Tracking $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 page 22
UPPER WEST SIDE Upper West Side By Unit Size ($1,415/SF Median) Studios $1,107 1 Bedrooms $1,152 2 Bedrooms $1,275 1500+ SF $1,668 % Of Sales Within Upper West Side Studios 7.7% 1 Bedrooms 20% 2 Bedrooms 18.5% 1500+ SF 53.8% Upper West Side Quarterly Tracking $1,700 $4,000,000 $1,475 $3,125,000 $1,250 $2,250,000 $1,025 $1,375,000 $800 $500,000 page 23
THE REPORT EXPLAINED Included in this research are walk-up and elevator new development condominium buildings, as well as new conversion condominiums if the sales were applicable sponsor transactions. Excluded from the report are all cooperative sales. Unit types such as studios, one-bedrooms, and two-bedroom units are grouped by square footage ranges. Studios are under 700 square feet, one-bedrooms are under 900 square feet, and two-bedrooms are under 1,450 square feet. Added to the report is the over-sized unit type that ranges from 1,500 square feet to 7,000 square feet. Presented with a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparison, both city-wide and by neighborhood, MNS New Development Report TM tracks the market trends throughout Manhattan and Brooklyn. MNS offers a unique insight into the new development market by tracking stalled construction sites on a quarterly basis, a great indicator of where development in general is moving. MNS is your source to find neighborhood price per square foot analysis, average sale prices, unit type sales trends, overall price movement, neighborhood inventory comparisons, and absorption rates. Can t find what you re looking for? Ask MNS for more information at www.. Contact Us Now: 212.475.9000 Note: All market data is collected and compiled by MNS s marketing department. The information presented here is intended for instructive purposes only and has been gathered from sources deemed reliable, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. If you would like to republish this report on the web, please be sure to source it as the Manhattan New Development Report with a link back to its original location http://www./manhattan_new_dev_report page 24