California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics October 2018
Sales Had the 2 nd Largest Drop in the Last 6 Months California, October 2018 Sales: 397,060 Units, -3.7% YTD, -7.9% YTY 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - Oct-17: 431,070 Oct-18: 397,060 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
California Home Sales Continued on a Declining Trend 25% 2 15% 5% -5% - -15% -2 Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) -25% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
Bay Area Sales Bounced Back but Still Down from Last Year 3 Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) 2 YoY % chg. - -3. -2-3 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Southern California Home Sales Continued to Have the Biggest Fall among All Regions YoY % chg. 4 So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) 3 2-7.8% - -2-3 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Central Valley Sales Remained on a Declining Trend in October YoY % chg. 3 Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) 2-2.6% - -2-3 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Sales Declined in Sub-Million Dollar Markets October 2018 (Year-to-Year) 25% 2 19.1% 15% 5% 1.6% -5% - -15% -11.1% -6.6% -8.5% -2.1% -2.2% -2-25% -20.6% SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
Home Prices Continued to Grow but at a More Moderate Pace California, October 2018: $572,000, -1.2% MTM, +4.7% YTY $700,000 $600,000 P:May-07 $594,530 Oct-17: $546,430 Oct-18: $572,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
Prices Growing at Mid Single-Digit Rate 5 4 3 Condo Single-Family Homes YTY% Chg. in Price 2 - -2-3 -4-5 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes
$600,000 Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling off as Markets Move into Off Season Condo $500,000 Median Price $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 Oct-17: $450,880 Oct-18: $476,440 $100,000 $0 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
CA Median Price (Existing SFH) 15% Month-to-Month % Chg 5% -5% - -15% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile Year-over-Year Price Growth 14% 12% 11.3% 11.8% 8.6% 8% 6.5% 6.4% 6% 4% 4.4% 3.7% 5.2% 4.9% 2% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Percentile SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
Slow Growth in List Price Suggests Sales Price Tapering Off in the Near Term 6 California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth 4 2-2 -4-6 1/1/2009 4/1/2009 7/1/2009 10/1/2009 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/2018 10/1/2018 Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 43.6%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4% 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% 1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 Reduced-Price Listings 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 Median Reduction 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 43.6% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4.4% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 4/1/2018 7/1/2018 10/1/2018 SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
Price Per Square Increased from Last Year, but Virtually Unchanged from September October 2018: $282, Down 0. MTM, Up 4.4% YTY PRICE PER SQ. FT. $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Oct-17: $270 Oct-18: $282 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
Sales Price -to-list Price Hit the Lowest Level in 21 Months October 2018: 98.1%, -0.4% MTM, -0.8% YTY 10 Oct-17: 98.9% Oct-18: 98.1% Sales-to-List Price Ratio 98% 96% 94% 92% 9 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.5% 100. 99.5% 100. 100. 100. 99.5% 99.5% 99.6% 99.7% 100. 99. 98.5% 98.3% 98. 97.5% 97. 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Percentile Oct-17 Oct-18 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
Time on Market Rises as the Market Slows California, October 2018: 26.0 Days DAYS ON MARKET 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes
Median Time on Market by Percentile 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 22 22 23 24 22 18 19 19 Median Time on Market 22 22 21 21 19 18 18 16 30 27 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total Percentile 19 23 Oct-17 Oct-18 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes
Inventory Index Dipped from September as Sales Climbed from Prior Month October 2017: 3.0 Months; October 2018: 3.6 Months 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings Continued to Increase for the 7 th Consecutive Month Year-over-Year % Chg 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% -5% - -15% -2 28. SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes
Housing Supply Improved across the Board, Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment Oct 2018 Active Listing 5 4 3 31.7% 43.9% 40.1% 30.7% 28. 2 14.5% 9.1% - -6.2% SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Fall 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 3.3 2.5 1.0 0.0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings Increased in All Regions 35,000 30,000 Oct-17 32,269 Oct-18 25,000 24,539 Active Listings 20,000 15,000 10,000 7,830 10,326 12,218 5,000 4,789 2,497 2,737 0 San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings Increased in All Regions Oct 2018 7 6 63% Sales Active Listings Year-to-Year % Chg 5 4 3 2 - -2-3% San Francisco Bay Area 32% 18% -3% -3% -8% Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
Inventory Index Highest in Millions 10 9 8 Unsold Inventory Index 9.4 8.2 7 6 5 4 3 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.7 4.0 3.2 3.1 2.4 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.7 4.6 4.6 3.0 3.6 2 1 0 Oct-17 Oct-18 SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings by Month 70,000 Active Listings by Month 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2017 2018