STATPAK MONTGOMERY COUNTY JANUARY 2019 McEnearney.com MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR DECEMBER & 4TH QUARTER 2018 Contract activity in December 2018 was down 10.1% from December 2017 and was down in five of the six price categories. For the full year, contract activity was down 4.3%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 62 days in December 2018, down from 72 days in December of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in December compared to the year prior. During the past 14 years, the Index has been as high as 92% (May 2004) and as low as 19% (December 2007). In December 2018, the Urgency Index was 45.8%, up a bit from 43.9% in December 2017. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of December was up 6.7% compared to the end of December 2017 but was down for homes priced more than $1,500,000. However, the number of new listings coming on the market was down 4.0% from December 2017. The rise in inventory combined with the decrease in contracts moved overall supply higher to 2.6 months, up from 2.2 months at the end of December 2017. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates had been hovering slightly under 5% over the last several months but ended December at 4.55%. That s a quarter of a point lower than the end of November but is over a half point higher than last December. The Mortgage Bankers Association has lowered their forecast, now projecting that rates will not exceed 5% during 2019. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 16.1% higher today than it was a decade ago in December 2008 and is up 9.5% from December of last year because of rising prices and interest rates. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,141) was higher than the median rented price ($2,050). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET Montgomery County s real estate market heads into the winter months with the expected seasonal slowdown. Inventory is up, overall supply is down, homes are taking a little longer to sell and absorption rates have cooled a bit all compared to last December. We see nothing on the horizon that is likely to change this picture until spring. Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS ). Northern Virginia is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax. Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 1
MONTHLY SUMMARY DECEMBER 2017 vs. DECEMBER 2018 December December % MONTGOMERY COUNTY 2017 2018 Change Number of Sales 961 791-17.7% Fully Available Inventory on 12/31 1,575 1,680 6.7% Number of New Listings 549 527-4.0% Number of New Contracts 706 635-10.1% Days on Market - New Contracts 72 62-13.9% Average Sales Price $519,314 $519,514 0.0% Average Seller Subsidy $4,376 $4,285-2.1% Urgency Index 43.9% 45.8% 4.3% Months' Supply 2.2 2.6 18.6% PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY Number of Sales 890 657-26.2% Fully Available Inventory on 12/31 1,730 1,938 12.0% Number of New Listings 861 878 2.0% Number of New Contracts 877 831-5.2% Days on Market - New Contracts 49 58 18.4% Average Sales Price $290,848 $305,972 5.2% Average Seller Subsidy $6,136 $6,207 1.2% Urgency Index 53.1% 47.8% -10.0% Months' Supply 2.0 2.3 18.2% WASHINGTON, DC Number of Sales 717 592-17.4% Fully Available Inventory on 12/31 1,060 1,277 20.5% Number of New Listings 497 514 3.4% Number of New Contracts 600 572-4.7% Days on Market - New Contracts 50 52 4.0% Average Sales Price $738,465 $706,392-4.3% Average Seller Subsidy $2,984 $3,086 3.4% Urgency Index 52.5% 49.0% -6.7% Months' Supply 1.8 2.2 26.4% NORTHERN VIRGINIA Number of Sales 1,458 1,524 4.5% Fully Available Inventory on 12/31 2,386 1,935-18.9% Number of New Listings 850 853 0.4% Number of New Contracts 1,072 1,263 17.8% Days on Market - New Contracts 66 51-22.7% Average Sales Price $591,536 $593,998 0.4% Average Seller Subsidy $3,493 $2,804-19.7% Urgency Index 43.1% 48.6% 12.8% Months' Supply 2.2 1.5-31.2% LOUDOUN COUNTY Number of Sales 477 380-20.3% Fully Available Inventory on 12/31 900 771-14.3% Number of New Listings 330 349 5.8% Number of New Contracts 354 335-5.4% Days on Market - New Contracts 57 51-10.5% Average Sales Price $508,724 $517,352 1.7% Average Seller Subsidy $3,946 $3,049-22.7% Urgency Index 48.6% 54.9% 13.0% Months' Supply 2.5 2.3-9.5% * Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 2
FULL YEAR SUMMARY 2017 vs. 2018 Year-to-Date Jan-Dec Jan-Dec % MONTGOMERY COUNTY 2017 2018 Change Number of Closed Sales 12,704 12,066-5.0% Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,303 2,148-6.7% Number of New Listings 16,668 16,470-1.2% Number of New Contracts 13,531 12,943-4.3% Days on Market - New Contracts 48 44-8.3% Average Sales Price $522,880 $541,646 3.6% Average Seller Subsidy $3,526 $3,433-2.6% Average Urgency Index 60.3% 63.1% 4.8% Average Months' Supply 2.0 2.0-2.5% PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY Number of Closed Sales 11,006 10,515-4.5% Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,807 1,892 4.7% Number of New Listings 14,359 14,745 2.7% Number of New Contracts 11,831 13,010 10.0% Days on Market - New Contracts 42 45 7.7% Average Sales Price $286,131 $296,882 3.8% Average Seller Subsidy $5,492 $5,398-1.7% Average Urgency Index 61.2% 58.5% -4.4% Average Months' Supply 1.8 1.7-4.8% WASHINGTON, DC Number of Closed Sales 9,167 8,894-3.0% Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,316 1,370 4.1% Number of New Listings 12,270 12,967 5.7% Number of New Contracts 9,808 9,537-2.8% Days on Market - New Contracts 37 37-0.5% Average Sales Price $680,264 $697,192 2.5% Average Seller Subsidy $2,323 $2,201-5.2% Average Urgency Index 67.5% 66.8% -1.0% Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.7 7.1% NORTHERN VIRGINIA Number of Closed Sales 22,243 21,677-2.5% Average Month-End Available Inventory 3,760 3,267-13.1% Number of New Listings 29,671 28,839-2.8% Number of New Contracts 23,206 23,084-0.5% Days on Market - New Contracts 45 37-16.2% Average Sales Price $577,516 $587,239 1.7% Average Seller Subsidy $2,851 $2,626-7.9% Average Urgency Index 63.0% 66.9% 6.3% Average Months' Supply 1.9 1.7-12.7% LOUDOUN COUNTY Number of Closed Sales 6,769 6,561-3.1% Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,281 1,074-16.1% Number of New Listings 9,108 8,792-3.5% Number of New Contracts 6,995 6,851-2.1% Days on Market - New Contracts 41 37-9.6% Average Sales Price $503,431 $520,639 3.4% Average Seller Subsidy $3,315 $2,976-10.2% Average Urgency Index 65.8% 69.5% 5.5% Average Months' Supply 2.2 1.9-14.4% * Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 3
MONTGOMERY COUNTY Detail Pages Interest Rate 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates 2011-Current 1-Year ARM 30-Year Fixed MORTGAGE RATES 30-year fixed interest rates at the end of December averaged 4.55%, compared to 3.99% at the end of December 2017. One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 4.00% at the end of December 2018, which is up from 3.47% at the end of December 2017. BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment BUYING POWER A $1,000 principal and interest payment supported a loan of $196,209 at the end of December, which is $13,505 less than December 2018 but $32,203 more than December 2007. In December 2008, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $1,843 to purchase a median-priced home. Now it takes a payment of $2,141 to buy a median-priced home. That s a 16.1% increase. And it now takes a payment that is 9.5% higher than this time last year because of a jump in the median price and rising interest rates. AVERAGES SALE PRICE Montgomery County 2010-Current AVERAGE PRICES December 2018 s average sales price was $519,514, which remained the same from the December 2017 average price of $519,314. Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations based on all properties sold and do not indicate the appreciation or depreciation of any individual property. Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 4
% of Contracts on the Market 30 Days or Less 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less Montgomery County 2014-Current % of Contracts # Contracts Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Number of Contracts URGENCY INDEX 2014-Current This chart compares the number of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it might appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly but that s not always true. As an example, December is always the month with the lowest number of contracts. December 2011 (not on this chart) had a 30% index, but that jumped to 44% in 2012, an early indicator that the market was picking up heading into 2013. URGENCY INDEX Montgomery County December 2007-2018 URGENCY INDEX - December During the past 12 years, the December Urgency Index has been as high as 45.8% and as low as 18.9%. The average December Urgency Index during the past 12 years is 39.4% which is lower than where we are today. Contract activity is down 10.1% from last December but the Urgency Index increased from 43.9% to 45.8%. URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison December 2018 URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area The average December Urgency Index during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 41.7% lower than where we are today which is 48.6%. Montgomery County is in fifth place this month. As noted above, it is higher than its 12- year average. Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 5
NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Montgomery County December 2017 vs. December 2018 by Price Range $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $499,999 17 21 36 32 50 61 104 128 December 2018 December 2017 246 258 NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY As noted on page 2, the number of new contracts ratified in December 2018 was down 10.1% from the number of contracts ratified in December 2017. There were decreases for five price categories. As noted on page 3, contract activity for the full year is down 4.3%. 40.9% of all homes going under contract in December 2018 had a price reduction before going under contract. $0 - $299,999 182 206 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 # of New Contracts FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Montgomery County December 31, 2017 vs. December 31, 2018 FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS As noted on page 2, the overall inventory increased 6.7% in December 2018 compared to December 2017, and there was a 4.0% decrease in the number of new listings coming on the market. Inventory decreased for homes priced more than $1.5 million. 41.0% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. In December 2017, 44.8% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction. MONTHS SUPPLY Montgomery County End of December 2017 vs. End of December 2018 MONTHS SUPPLY The overall supply of homes on the market at the end of December was 2.6 months, up 18.6% from 2.2 months at the end of December 2017. Supply is lower for one price category. Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 6
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Montgomery County December 2017 vs. December 2018 New Contracts $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $499,999 56.8 60.1 68.8 64.4 68.9 111.8 106.7 120.8 144.4 204.6 December 2018 December 2017 AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET NEW The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts in December was down for all price categories. Overall, the average number of days on the market for all homes receiving contracts in December 2018 was 62 days, down 13.9% from 72 days in December 2017. $0 - $299,999 49.7 52.5 0 50 100 150 200 250 # of Days on Market NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, NEW, AND ACTIVE LISTINGS Montgomery County January 2012-Current NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, AND ACTIVE LISTINGS There were 527 new listings that came on the market in December 2018, a 4.0% decrease from 549 in December 2017. The incredibly tight market in the spring of 2013 shown by the convergence of the blue (new listings), green (active inventory) and red (new contracts) lines had widened a bit over the last several months. RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET Resale Properties Sold in Montgomery County Dec. 2017 vs. Dec. 2018 RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET Initial pricing strategy is critical to the listing process, regardless of market conditions. The longer a home sits on the market, the deeper the discount to its original list price will likely be. Homes settling in December 2018 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 0.21% above list price. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold at 10.48% below original list! SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed Sales are transactions that settled during the statistical period; Under Contracts are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled Available Listings reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. Months Supply is simply the number of Fully Available Listings on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of Contracts ratified that month. Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 7
Analysis by Property Type Condo/Co-op LISTINGS CONDO/CO-OP LISTINGS Condo/Co-op New This Month Total Active Listings 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 117 91-22.2% 239 233-2.5% $300,000 - $499,999 33 39 18.2% 118 111-5.9% $500,000 - $749,999 6 9 50.0% 34 23-32.4% $750,000 - $999,999 2 2 0.0% 8 9 12.5% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 5 2-60.0% 9 10 11.1% $1,500,000 & higher 6 1-83.3% 29 16-44.8% Grand Total: 169 144-14.8% 437 402-8.0% The number of new listings for condos and co-ops coming on the market decreased 14.8% compared to December 2017. The fully available inventory of condos as of December 31, 2018 is 8.0% less than December 31, 2017. CONDO/CO-OP Condo/Co-op New This Month Year-To-Date Contracts 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 137 115-16.1% 2263 2078-8.2% $300,000 - $499,999 45 38-15.6% 767 819 6.8% $500,000 - $749,999 6 7 16.7% 169 167-1.2% $750,000 - $999,999 1 3 200.0% 42 34-19.0% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 2 3 50.0% 26 22-15.4% $1,500,000 & higher 4 0-100.0% 23 23 0.0% Grand Total: 195 166-14.9% 3290 3143-4.5% The number of condos and co-ops receiving ratified contracts decreased 14.9% in December 2018 compared to December 2017. For the full year, contract activity is down 4.5% compared to 2017. SETTLEMENTS Condo/Co-op New This Month Year-To-Date Settlements 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 176 135-23.3% 2081 1924-7.5% $300,000 - $499,999 52 51-1.9% 734 767 4.5% $500,000 - $749,999 12 6-50.0% 169 156-7.7% $750,000 - $999,999 6 3-50.0% 37 33-10.8% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 4 3-25.0% 33 16-51.5% $1,500,000 & higher 3 1-66.7% 30 21-30.0% Grand Total: 253 199-21.3% 3084 2917-5.4% CONDO/CO-OP SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of condos and co-ops settling in December 2018 decreased 21.3% compared to December 2017. For the full year, the number of settlements is down 5.4%. The average price was down 6.7% compared to December 2017. For the full year, the average price is down 1.7%. Average Sales Price: Dec 2017 Dec 2018 % Change YTD 2017 YTD 2018 % Change Condo/Co-op $305,407 $284,843-6.7% $293,572 $288,589-1.7% Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 8
Analysis by Property Type Fee Simple Attached LISTINGS ATTACHED HOMES LISTINGS Fee Simple Attached New This Month Total Active Listings 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 46 40-13.0% 54 66 22.2% $300,000 - $499,999 55 52-5.5% 120 141 17.5% $500,000 - $749,999 20 20 0.0% 52 62 19.2% $750,000 - $999,999 8 3-62.5% 19 15-21.1% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 3 0-100.0% 15 14-6.7% $1,500,000 & higher 0 3-7 6-14.3% Grand Total: 132 118-10.6% 267 304 13.9% The number of new listings coming on the market in December 2018 for fee simple attached homes decreased 10.6% compared to December 2017. The fully available inventory as of December 31, 2018 is 13.9% more than this time in 2017. Fee Simple Attached New This Month Year-To-Date Contracts 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 66 53-19.7% 1151 926-19.5% $300,000 - $499,999 69 66-4.3% 1352 1449 7.2% $500,000 - $749,999 23 18-21.7% 388 395 1.8% $750,000 - $999,999 7 5-28.6% 75 68-9.3% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 6 2-66.7% 25 48 92.0% $1,500,000 & higher 0 2-14 8-42.9% Grand Total: 171 146-14.6% 3005 2894-3.7% ATTACHED HOMES Contract activity for attached homes decreased 14.6% in December 2018 compared to December 2017. For the full year, contract activity is down 3.7%. SETTLEMENTS Fee Simple Attached New This Month Year-To-Date Settlements 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 74 45-39.2% 1024 772-24.6% $300,000 - $499,999 107 102-4.7% 1256 1371 9.2% $500,000 - $749,999 27 32 18.5% 382 402 5.2% $750,000 - $999,999 6 5-16.7% 56 71 26.8% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 1 4 300.0% 18 39 116.7% $1,500,000 & higher 2 2 0.0% 12 11-8.3% Grand Total: 217 190-12.4% 2748 2666-3.0% ATTACHED HOMES SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of settlements decreased 12.4% in December 2018 compared to December 2017. For the full year, the number of settlements is down 3.0%. The average sales price was up 9.8% in December 2018 compared to December 2017. For the full year, the average price is up 6.8%. Average Sales Price: Dec 2017 Dec 2018 % Change YTD 2017 YTD 2018 % Change Fee Simple Attached $392,819 $431,424 9.8% $381,131 $407,189 6.8% Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 9
Analysis by Property Type Fee Simple Detached LISTINGS Fee Simple Detached New This Month Total Active Listings 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 4 14 250.0% 9 16 77.8% $300,000 - $499,999 88 106 20.5% 188 237 26.1% $500,000 - $749,999 84 74-11.9% 241 268 11.2% $750,000 - $999,999 30 37 23.3% 125 155 24.0% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 24 15-37.5% 123 131 6.5% $1,500,000 & higher 18 19 5.6% 185 167-9.7% Grand Total: 248 265 6.9% 871 974 11.8% DETACHED HOMES LISTINGS The number of new listings for fee simple detached homes was up 6.9% in December 2018 compared to December 2017. The number of detached homes on the market on December 31, 2018 increased 11.8% compared to December 31, 2017. Fee Simple Detached New This Month Year-To-Date Contracts 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 3 14 366.7% 182 120-34.1% $300,000 - $499,999 144 142-1.4% 2819 2464-12.6% $500,000 - $749,999 99 79-20.2% 2202 2245 2.0% $750,000 - $999,999 53 42-20.8% 1065 1048-1.6% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 24 31 29.2% 628 685 9.1% $1,500,000 & higher 17 15-11.8% 340 344 1.2% Grand Total: 340 323-5.0% 7236 6906-4.6% DETACHED HOMES The number of contracts for detached homes in December 2018 was down 5.0% compared to December 2017. The number of contracts for the full year has decreased 4.6%. SETTLEMENTS Fee Simple Detached New This Month Year-To-Date Settlements 2017 2018 % Change 2017 2018 % Change $299,999 and under 14 5-64.3% 174 80-54.0% $300,000 - $499,999 191 172-9.9% 2636 2233-15.3% $500,000 - $749,999 146 122-16.4% 2119 2171 2.5% $750,000 - $999,999 67 51-23.9% 988 1020 3.2% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 42 32-23.8% 643 670 4.2% $1,500,000 & higher 31 20-35.5% 312 309-1.0% Grand Total: 491 402-18.1% 6872 6483-5.7% DETACHED HOMES SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE The number of settlements in December was down 18.1% compared to December 2017. For the full year, there has been a decrease of 5.7%. The average sales price for detached homes decreased just 0.7% in December 2018 compared to December 2017. For the full year, the average sales price is up 4.4%. Average Sales Price: Dec 2017 Dec 2018 % Change YTD 2017 YTD 2018 % Change Fee Simple Detached $682,017 $677,315-0.7% $679,590 $709,215 4.4% Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 10
Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market, and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for condos and co-ops priced between $500,000 and $749,999 in December 2018 was 23.3%; that compares to a rate of 15.0% in December 2017, and the increase means the market was better in 2018 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2018 than in 2017, we have put the 2018 rate in red. This month there was improvement for just 6 of 18 individual categories. Condo/Co-op December 2017 December 2018 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under 239 137 36.4% 233 115 33.0% $300,000 - $499,999 118 45 27.6% 111 38 25.5% $500,000 - $749,999 34 6 15.0% 23 7 23.3% $750,000 - $999,999 8 1 11.1% 9 3 25.0% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 9 2 18.2% 10 3 23.1% $1,500,000 & higher 29 4 12.1% 16 0 0.0% Grand Total: 437 195 30.9% 402 166 29.2% ABSORPTION RATES CONDOS AND CO-OPS The overall absorption rate for condos and co-ops for December 2018 was 29.2%, down from the 30.9% rate in December 2017. Fee Simple Attached December 2017 December 2018 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under 54 66 55.0% 66 53 44.5% $300,000 - $499,999 120 69 36.5% 141 66 31.9% $500,000 - $749,999 52 23 30.7% 62 18 22.5% $750,000 - $999,999 19 7 26.9% 15 5 25.0% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 15 6 28.6% 14 2 12.5% $1,500,000 & higher 7 0 0.0% 6 2 25.0% Grand Total: 267 171 39.0% 304 146 32.4% ABSORPTION RATES ATTACHED HOMES The overall absorption rate for attached homes for December 2018 was 32.4%, down from the 39.0% rate in December 2017. Fee Simple Detached December 2017 December 2018 Absorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate $299,999 and under 9 3 25.0% 16 14 46.7% $300,000 - $499,999 188 144 43.4% 237 142 37.5% $500,000 - $749,999 241 99 29.1% 268 79 22.8% $750,000 - $999,999 125 53 29.8% 155 42 21.3% $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 123 24 16.3% 131 31 19.1% $1,500,000 & higher 185 17 8.4% 167 15 8.2% Grand Total: 871 340 28.1% 974 323 24.9% ABSORPTION RATES DETACHED HOMES December 2018 s absorption rate for detached homes was 24.9%, down from the 28.1% rate in December 2017. And as we have seen in the other property types, the absorption rates are higher for the lower-priced categories. Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 11
Note: We break out sub-market information for Lower and Upper Montgomery County each quarter. For these charts, we have included the following zip codes for Lower Montgomery County : 20812 (Cabin John) 20815 (Chevy Chase), 20814-20818 (Bethesda and Cabin John), 20895 (Kensington), 20896 (Garrett Park), 20854 (Potomac), 20901, 20902, 20903 and 20910 (Silver Spring), 20912 (Takoma Park) and 20850-20852 (Rockville) Focus on Lower Montgomery County 4th Qtr. 2017 vs. 4th Qtr. 2018 NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Lower Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 78 82 111 121 138 192 4th Qtr 2018 4th Qtr 2017 NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Overall contract activity in the 4th quarter for lower Montgomery County was down 7.6% compared to 2017. (Contract activity in upper Montgomery County decreased 8.9%.) $500,000 - $749,999 242 269 $300,000 - $499,999 321 356 $0 - $299,999 183 162 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 # of New Contracts AVERAGE MONTH-END AVAILABLE INVENTORY Lower Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 AVERAGE MONTH-END AVAILABLE INVENTORY Overall, the average month-end inventory in lower Montgomery County increased 3.9% for the 4th quarter of 2018 compared to 2017. (By comparison, inventory in upper Montgomery County increased 15.5%) Inventory is up for homes priced less than $1 million. AVERAGE MONTHS SUPPLY Lower Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 AVERAGE MONTHS SUPPLY There were decreases in months supply for the top two price categories compared to the 4th quarter of 2017. Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 12
Focus on Lower Montgomery County 4th Qtr. 2017 vs. 4th Qtr. 2018 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FOR NEW Lower Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FOR NEW $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 51 50 65 78 94 99 150 4th Qtr 2018 185 The average number of days a home was on the market in the 4th quarter of 2017 before receiving a contract decreased 7.0% compared to the 4th quarter of 2017. The average number of days on the market was lower for four price categories. $300,000 - $499,999 48 52 4th Qtr 2017 $0 - $299,999 65 59 0 50 100 150 200 # of Days on Market AVERAGE SALES PRICE Lower Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 AVERAGE SALES PRICE The average sales prices in lower Montgomery County are considerably higher than the average sales prices in upper Montgomery County. NUMBER OF CONDO, ATTACHED AND DETACHED HOME Lower Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 NUMBER OF CONDO, ATTACHED HOME AND DETACHED HOME New contract activity for condos in lower Montgomery County was up 1.3% in the 4th quarter of 2018 (compared to upper Montgomery County, which decreased 14.8%). Attached home contract activity was up 9.0% (compared to upper Montgomery County, down 12.0%). Detached home contract activity was down 13.7% (compared to a decrease of 2.7% in upper Montgomery County). Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 13
Focus on Upper Montgomery County 4th Qtr. 2017 vs. 4th Qtr. 2018 NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Upper Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 2 2 9 9 58 53 231 242 4th Qtr 2018 4th Qtr 2017 NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Contract activity in the 4th quarter of 2018 decreased 8.9% in upper Montgomery County compared to 2017, due largely to a significant drop in the number of contracts for homes priced less than $300,000. (Contract activity in lower Montgomery County decreased 7.6%.) $300,000 - $499,999 657 683 $0 - $299,999 484 592 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 # of New Contracts AVERAGE MONTH-END AVAILABLE INVENTORY Upper Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 AVERAGE MONTH-END AVAILABLE INVENTORY The average month-end inventory in upper Montgomery County increased by 15.5% for the 4th quarter of 2018 compared to the 4th quarter of 2017. (Inventory in lower Montgomery County increased 3.9%) Inventory increased for all price categories. AVERAGE MONTHS SUPPLY Upper Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 AVERAGE MONTHS SUPPLY The supply of homes which is simply the number of available homes divided by the number of contracts increased for all price categories. Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 14
Focus on Upper Montgomery County 4th Qtr. 2017 vs. 4th Qtr. 2018 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FOR NEW Upper Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET FOR NEW $1,500,000 and higher $1,000,000 - $1,499,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $300,000 - $499,999 49 48 72 77 94 117 125 150 213 169 4th Qtr 2018 4th Qtr 2017 The average number of days a home was on the market in the 4th quarter of 2018 before receiving a contract increased 3.8% from 2017. The average number of days on the market increased for four price categories. $0 - $299,999 42 41 0 50 100 150 200 250 # of Days on Market $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 AVERAGE SALES PRICE Upper Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AVERAGE SALES PRICE The average sales prices in upper Montgomery County are considerably lower than the average sales prices in lower Montgomery County by more than $300,000. Prices have not held up quite as well in the upper part of the county, but they have not varied as widely as prices in the lower county. Prices for 2017 generally tracked higher than those of 2015 and 2016, and 2018 is higher than 2017. NUMBER OF CONDO, ATTACHED AND DETACHED HOME Upper Montgomery County Oct.-Dec. 2017 vs. Oct.-Dec. 2018 NUMBER OF CONDO, ATTACHED HOME AND DETACHED HOME New contract activity for condos in upper Montgomery County decreased 14.8% in the 4th quarter of 2018 (compared to lower Montgomery County, which was up 1.3%). Attached home contract activity was down 12.0% (compared to lower Montgomery County which increased 9.0%). Detached home contract activity was down 2.7% (compared to a decrease of 13.7% in lower Montgomery County). Copyright 2019 McEnearney Associates Montgomery County StatPak - Page 15