FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Christine Windle 703-777-2468, cwindle@dullesarea.com Sponsored by: Access National Bank Tom Ciolkosz, (703) 871-1045, tciolkosz@accessnationalbank.com Patty Foster, 703-871-1014, pfoster@accessnational.com February 2016 Loudoun County Market Trends Report Contracts and sales activity jump double-digits; Inventories down 15.5 percent Ashburn, VA (March 14, 2016) The following analysis of the Loudoun County, Virginia housing market has been prepared for the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS based on analysis of MRIS multiple listing data by ShowingTime RBI. Overview Loudoun County s February median sales price of $415,000 was 1.4 percent higher than last year. Total sales volume across the county was over $162 million, up 9.9 percent from last February which had $147.5 million in dollar volume. The 362 closed sales marked an 11.0 percent increase from last year. Sales have now increased in 13 of the last 14 months in Loudoun County. The number of new contracts in February increased by 9.6 percent, suggesting January s decline was indeed, weather-related. New listing activity decreased versus last year for the tenth consecutive month, with the 714 homes added in February missing the February 2014 tally by 4.8 percent. For the eighth consecutive month, inventory at month s end is lower than the same point last year. The 15.5 percent drop-off marks the largest decline since April 2013. Half the homes sold in February were on market 58 days or less, a one-week improvement from last February s median DOM of 65 days. Loudoun County Home Prices and Sales Median Sales Price Closed Sales Feb 2016 Feb 2015 YoY Feb 2016 Feb 2015 YoY 20152, Chantilly $471,250 $385,500 22.2% 32 42-23.8% 20148, Ashburn $468,000 $490,000-4.5% 53 45 17.8% 20105, Aldie $449,995 $450,000-22 27-18.5% 20176, Leesburg $444,900 $433,000 2.8% 45 43 4.7% 20175, Leesburg $432,000 $372,950 15.8% 31 24 29.2% 20132, Purcellville $422,040 $440,000-4.1% 14 13 7.7% Loudoun County $415,000 $409,450 1.4% 362 326 11.0% 20165, Sterling $406,000 $386,950 4.9% 35 32 9.4% 20147, Ashburn $392,450 $432,500-9.3% 50 50-20164, Sterling $337,500 $315,000 7.1% 44 29 51.7% *ZIP codes with <14 February sales excluded 1
Home prices The median sales price of $415,000 represents an increase of 1.4 percent versus last year. Though modest, this marked the sixth straight month with gains and the highest February level since 2007. Compared to the $299,450 bottom of February 2009, prices have appreciated 38.6 percent. Condos (+4.4 percent) and townhouses (+4.1 percent) both saw year-over-year gains in median price levels. The condo segment had a median price of $259,990 and the townhouse median was $395,500, representing gains of 4.4 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. The median sales price for detached units fell 3.5 percent to $524,798. Median price levels were up in five of the nine Loudoun ZIP codes with 14+ sales, led by a 22.2 percent gain in Chantilly s 20152. Its median of $471,250 was the highest of the ZIP codes analyzed. The significant gain in the 20152 ZIP code was due to more than half of its sales being detached in February, up from only 36 percent of its February 2015 sales. Ashburn s 20148 had the next highest February median at $468,000, though its level was down 4.5 percent versus last year. Sterling s 20164 remains the most affordable ZIP code in Loudoun, though its median sales price rose 7.1 percent versus last year to $337,500. 2
Closed Sales There were 362 closed sales in Loudoun, the highest February tally since 2007 and an increase of 11.0 percent compared to the 326 closed sales last year. Closed sales have now increased over the prior year in 13 of the last 14 months. The 362 sales topped the five-year February average by 52 sales, or 16.9 percent. Sales increased in six of the nine Loudoun ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 51.7 percent spike in Sterling s 20164, where sales jumped from 29 to 54. Leesburg s 20175 saw sales increase by 29.2 percent to 31 sales in February 2016. Ashburn s 20148 had a 17.8 percent increase with the most sales in the county (53). Sales in Chantilly s 20152 decreased by 23.8 percent to 32, the fifth straight month with declines for the ZIP code. 3
New Pending Sales After January s winter storm put a temporary brake on contract activity, new pending sales picked up again with a 9.6 percent year-over-year increase in February. The 526 new pending sales marked the highest February level since 2006. The townhouse segment was the only one to see a decrease in new pending sales, albeit a small one at -1.0 percent. New pending sales were up in seven of the nine ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 41.9 percent jump in Aldie s 20105. Leesburg s 20176 and Ashburn s 20148 were the only two ZIP codes with declines in purchase activity, with dips of 12.3 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively. 4
New Listing Activity New listing activity in February decreased versus last year for the tenth consecutive month. The 714 listings added were 4.8 percent lower than last February s tally. Despite missing last February s total, the 714 new listings actually topped the five-year February average by 42 listings, or 6.2 percent. Listing activity was down in all three segments, led by a 10.4 percent drop for condos. Townhouse listing activity was down 5.7 percent and the detached segment experienced a modest 3.0 percent drop. New listing activity actually increased versus last year in six of the nine ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 41.0 percent spike in Sterling s 20165. The year-over-year decrease in new listing activity county-wide was driven primarily by sharp declines in Ashburn s 20148 (-25.8 percent) and Chantilly s 20152 (-25.9 percent). 5
Month s end inventories With the pattern of new listing declines coupled with contract activity gains that began last spring, active inventory at February s end is now 15.5 percent lower than the same point last year. Month s end inventories remained 5.0 percent higher than the five-year February average of 1,261 listings, but the 1,371 active listings is now 54.5 percent lower than the 3,014 peak in February 2008. Inventories are down in eight of the nine Loudoun ZIP codes studied, led by a 40.3 percent drop in Sterling s 20164. Ashburn has seen significant declines in available inventory, with a 35.1 percent decrease in 20148 and a 29.9 percent dip in 20147. The 1,371 active listings headed into March represent only 2.7 months of supply based on the average monthly sales pace over the past 12 months. This is trending even further in the seller s favor compared to the 3.6 months of supply at the same point last year. 6
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio (SP to OLP) Loudoun s sellers received an average 96.6 percent of original list price in February, 0.7 points more than last year and the third highest February mark in the last decade. The county s average sales price to original list price ratio (SP to OLP) was 1.5 points higher than the tenyear February average of 95.1 percent. Average SP to OLP ratios increased in seven of the nine ZIP codes with 14+ February sales, led by a 2- point jump in Sterling s 20165. Aldie s 20105 had the highest average SP to OLP ratio in the county at 98.4 percent, followed by Ashburn s 20158 which had a 98.1 percent mark. i February sellers in Purcellville s 20132 received the lowest percentage of asking price on average at 92.9 percent, which was 2.3 points lower than its February 2015 level. 7
Days-on-market (DOM) Homes sold a week faster than last February, with half the Loudoun homes sold receiving contracts in 58 days or less, down from a median DOM of 65 days last year. The 58-day median DOM was a full nine days lower than the five-year February average of 49 days, but nearly even with the ten-year average of 57 days. Days-on-market levels improved in five of the nine ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 42-day drop in Ashburn s 20148 which had a median DOM of 33 days. The 32-day median in Aldie s 20105 led the county and marked a 19 day improvement from last year. Half the homes sold in Purcellville s 20132 were on the market 118 days prior to contract. While this is unchanged from its level last year, it is the highest of any ZIP code analyzed and twice as high as the median level of the county overall. 2016 ShowingTime RBI. Data Source: MRIS. Statistics calculated 3/4/2016 8
RBI Key Housing Trend Metrics Dulles Area Association of REALTORS Feb-16 % M-O- M Jan-16 Y Feb-15 2Y Feb-14 5YAvg 5 Yr Avg All Residential Units Sold 362 10.7% 327 11.0% 326 27.0% 285 16.9% 310 Median Sales Price $415,000-5.5% $439,000 1.4% $409,450 0.5% $412,900 4.5% $397,270 New Pending Sales 526 26.1% 417 9.6% 480 17.9% 446 7.5% 489 Active Listings 1,371 2.4% 1,339-15.5% 1,622 13.5% 1,208 5.0% 1,306 New Listings 714 34.7% 530-4.8% 750 13.2% 631 6.2% 672 Average DOM 83 +6 days 77-9 days 92 +19 days 64 +5 days 78 Median DOM 58 +7 days 51-6 days 64 +18 days 40 +9 days 49 Avg SP to OLP Ratio 96.6% 96.4% 95.9% 97.2% 96.2% Feb-16 % M-O- M Jan-16 Y Feb-15 2Y Feb-14 5YAvg 5 Yr Avg Detached Units Sold 173-3.9% 180 12.3% 154 22.7% 141 12.0% 154 Median Sales Price $524,798-7.1% $565,000-3.5% $543,995-4.6% $550,000 2.1% $514,159 New Pending Sales 265 25.6% 211 16.2% 228 23.3% 215 7.0% 248 Active Listings 954 1.4% 941-10.8% 1,070 14.1% 836 4.9% 909 New Listings 385 30.5% 295-3.0% 397 7.5% 358 2.7% 375 Average DOM 106 +17 days 89-10 days 116 +26 days 80 +8 days 98 Median DOM 81 +19 days 62 +1 day 80 +29 days 52 +16 days 65 Avg SP to OLP Ratio 95.2% 95.7% 95.1% 96.6% 95.2% % M-O- Feb-16 Jan-16 Feb-15 Feb-14 Attached-All M Y 2Y 5YAvg 5 Yr Avg Units Sold 189 28.6% 147 9.9% 172 31.3% 144 21.8% 155 Median Sales Price $360,000 3.6% $347,500 0.0% $359,950-0.3% $361,190 5.5% $341,128 New Pending Sales 260 26.2% 206 3.2% 252 12.6% 231 7.6% 242 Active Listings 417 4.8% 398-24.5% 552 12.1% 372 5.2% 396 New Listings 328 39.6% 235-7.1% 353 20.1% 273 10.3% 297 Average DOM 62-1 day 63-8 days 70 +14 days 48 +6 days 56 Median DOM 39 +1 day 38-21 days 60 +13 days 26 + 4 days 35 Avg SP to OLP Ratio 97.9% 97.1% 96.7% 97.9% 97.2%. About the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS The Dulles Area Association of REALTORS (DAAR) is The Association of Choice for Real Estate Professionals in the Northern Virginia area. Founded in 1962, DAAR works to safe guard and advance the mutual interests of the public, property owners, and real estate professionals for real estate related matters. About ShowingTime RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) ShowingTime RBI is a primary source of real estate data, analytics and business intelligence for real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Monthly reports for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region, along with interactive charts and graphics, can be found at http://www.getsmartcharts.com/statistics. RBI is the only company in the Mid-Atlantic region that provides timely, online access to statistical information directly from the MRIS MLS. 9