Q1 2012 industrial Stockton San JoAquin County, California research & forecast Report Industrial Market Review Momentum built-up from 2011 carried the industrial market into its fifth consecutive quarter of positive net absorption during the first quarter of 2012 with the warehouse distribution sector again outperforming other sectors. Vacancy was reduced by 40 basis points to 14.2 percent with net absorption totaling 485,514 square feet. Demand for big-box space is reducing vacancy and inquiries for space in light industrial buildings are increasing. market indicators Q1-12 VACANCY NET ABSORPTION Projected Q2-12 The industrial market remains bifurcated by product type with high-cube Class A warehouse buildings moving the market forward and the other industrial buildings only beginning to show signs of progress. We anticipate that demand for warehouse space will continue to outpace the other industrial product types despite the economic challenges faced throughout the Central Valley. Lease rates in the warehouse sector are showing signs of stabilizing as vacant space is absorbed. The other sectors continue to experience a wider variety of asking rates as landlord motivations and bank owned properties instill uncertainty. construction Lease rates Cap Rates Land prices Selected Market Highlights: > Absorption year to date totals 485,514 square feet which reduced the vacancy rate to 14.2 percent. > Amazon has plans to build a 1 million square foot distribution center in Patterson (Stanislaus County) adjacent to Interstate 5. Warehouse Distribution (High-Cube Big Box 50,000 Square Feet & Greater) The warehouse distribution sector experienced positive absorption during the first quarter of 2012 and lead the industrial market into another positive quarter. Contributing to the absorption was Delicato who occupied a 552,450 square foot distribution facility in Manteca. In addition, Staples expanded by 123,035 square feet in Stockton and Fairview Distribution leased 128,857 square feet in Manteca on a short-term basis. Bolstered by these notable leases, the warehouse distribution vacancy rate was reduced from 15.1 percent to 14.4 percent, and absorption measured 417,646 square feet. Historical vacancy and asking rates 20% 15% $0.60 $0.50 Warehouse demand is the driving force behind reductions in vacancy 10% $0.40 5% $0.30 0% 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 Vacancy Rate Asking Rate $0.20 www.colliers.com/stockton
research & forecast report Q1 2012 industrial LODI 4 Availability levels are tightening for Class A buildings, and only a single building exists with greater than 500,000 square feet. Buildings offering between 200,000-400,000 square feet are more abundant and below 200,000 square feet market availability is elevated, especially in space between 50,000-100,000 square feet. Numerous requirements between 50,000-100,000 square feet are active and should absorb space before the third quarter. STOCKTON LATHROP MANTECA RIPON TRACY Increased deal velocity is leading lease rates towards stability however the market remains advantageous for tenants seeking to negotiate favorable lease rates in quality buildings. Average lease rates are in the $0.29-$0.32 per square foot NNN range for Class A high-cube buildings. We anticipate that demand for warehouse space will continue to outpace the other industrial product types despite the economic challenges faced throughout the Central Valley. Investment activity continues to play a significant roll with most acquisitions occurring off-market. Institutional investors demand for quality assets in the Central Valley has developed into a trend that has compressed capitalization rates to the 6.5-7.5 percent range. During the first quarter Verde Realty purchased two warehouse distribution buildings from AEW Capital totaling 765,000 square feet and AREA Property Partners purchased a 512,000 square foot warehouse distribution building from Buzz Oates Enterprises. In addition, Buzz Oates Enterprises acquired the Fite Development Partnership portfolio in the Arch Road Business Park. The acquisition consisted of thirteen buildings totaling 618,660 square feet and seven fully improved parcels totaling 20.08 acres. Manufacturing/Light Industrial The manufacturing and light industrial sectors recorded a reduction in vacancy during the first quarter of 2012 following the fourth quarter of 2011 when the former Heinz food processing facility was decommissioned and became available. Absorption during the first quarter registered 34,949 square feet. Contributing to the positive absorption was Waste Management leasing 24,460 square feet in Tracy and Manteca Unified leasing 26,011 square feet in Manteca. Overall vacancy was reduced from 13.6 percent to 13.5 percent during the quarter. Demand for space has been increased with the majority of tenants seeking Class A space. Class B and C buildings are having difficulty attracting tenants due to the favorable lease rates being offered at Class A locations. Average asking lease rates range from $0.40-$0.45 per square foot NNN. significant deals Sale activity PROPERTY ADDRESS SALE DATE Square feet BUYER/Seller type Arch Road Business Park, Stockton 2/2012 618,660 Buzz Oates Enterprises / Fite Development Partnership Warehouse/Distribution 811 Zephyr Street, Stockton 2/2012 512,000 Area Property Partners / Buzz Oates Enterprises Warehouse/Distribution 4201 Gibraltar Court, Stockton 1/2012 441,000 Verde Realty / AEW Capital Warehouse/Distribution 4191 Gibraltar Court, Stockton 1/2012 324,000 Verde Realty / AEW Capital Warehouse/Distribution significant deals Lease activity PROPERTY ADDRESS Lease Date square feet tenant type 600 Spreckels Avenue, Manteca 1/2012 552,450 Delicato Family Vineyards Warehouse/Distribution 4440 Alitalia Drive, Stockton 3/2012 401,310 Staples Warehouse/Distribution 11980 Harlan Road, Lathrop 3/2012 343,842 Ghirardelli Chocolate Company Warehouse/Distribution 900 Spreckels Avenue, Manteca 2/2012 128,857 Fairview Distribution Warehouse/Distribution 25520 Schulte Court, Tracy 3/2012 44,324 Valley Moulding & Frame Warehouse/Distribution p. 2 Colliers International - stockton
research & forecast report Q1 2012 industrial Building values in the manufacturing and light industrial sector remain depressed as the local economic challenges weigh down values. Sales prices range from $30-$45 per square foot. Factors contributing to the depressed sale prices include REO liquidations, building condition, building class and functional obsolescence. Condominium/Incubator The condominium and incubator market supported the positive absorption trend with net absorption totaling 32,919 square feet. The vacancy rate dropped from 17.3 percent to 16.4 percent due to absorption in Lathrop, Manteca, and Lodi. The outlook for this sector remains more challenging compared to other product types although absorption is trending in a positive direction. Average asking lease rate for this sector is $0.45-$0.65 per square foot NNN depending on the quality and location of the building. Bank controlled buildings and condominium units continue to depress market values well below replacement costs. In addition lower demand is contributing to the inflated vacancy rate. Asking sales prices are a third of what they once were and remain in the $40-$60 per square foot range. Construction Amazon has plans to build a 1 million square foot distribution center in Patterson (Stanislaus County) adjacent to Interstate 5. Construction of Amazon s build-to-suit is scheduled for this summer and will be recognized as the kick-off for new construction throughout the Central Valley. In San Joaquin County, Staples connected two adjacent buildings in Stockton and expanded their occupied space to total 401,310 square feet. Expansions and build-tosuit construction was nominal throughout the recession and zero speculative construction has been recorded since 2009. As the health of the market improves and consumption of big-box supply continues, the market will near the threshold where developers will build on a speculative basis. It is possible that new construction may occur towards the end of 2012 or during 2013 in San Joaquin County. Trends > Investor demand remains strong. > Demand for Class A space is out-pacing Class B space. > East Bay demand will continue seeking opportunities in the Central Valley as the 880 Corridor (Oakland East Bay Area) market tightens. LODI 4 San Joaquin County Geographical Overview: San Joaquin County is located directly to the east of the San Francisco/Oakland Bay Area. It covers more than 1,400 square miles and bridges northern and central California. It s geographical position within the Country s third largest state places the county within a dynamic growth corridor ideally situated for business and industry. There are five (5) submarkets in San Joaquin County comprised of Tracy, Lathrop, Manteca, Stockton and Lodi. STOCKTON LATHROP MANTECA RIPON TRACY Due to the centralized location of San Joaquin County, it has cultivated extensive transportation facilities. These facilities include The Port of Stockton, Interstate 5 and Highway 99, Union Pacific Railroad and Burlington Northern Sante Fe Railroad, and The Stockton Metropolitan Airport. With these transportation systems in place, San Joaquin County is a central staging area and meeting place in California. Colliers International - Stockton p. 3
research & forecast report Q4 2011 industrial Industrial Definitions Total Rentable Square Feet: Industrial space in buildings with 4,800 SF or greater of industrial space. Includes speculative as well as owner-occupied buildings. Excludes buildings that are functionally obsolete in addition to space that is under construction or renovation. Direct Vacancy: Space in existing buildings that are vacant and immediately available during the quarter for direct lease or for sale, plus space that is vacant but not available for direct lease or sublease (for example, that is being held for a future commitment). Total Vacancy: Space in existing buildings that are vacant and immediately available during the quarter for direct lease, for sublease or for sale, plus space that is vacant but not available for direct lease or sublease. Net Absorption: Net change in occupied square feet from one period to the next (includes the impact of change in vacant space available for sublease). Sales and Leasing Activity: Square feet sold or leased for all known transactions completed during the quarter. Includes lease renewals and includes investment sale transactions. Weighted Average Asking Rental Rates: Weighted by square feet available for direct lease. Data is based on triple net rents, and excludes expenses such as taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial service and utilities. Reported on a monthly per square foot basis. Manufacturing Buildings: Includes buildings designed for the conversion or fabrication of goods. Buildings range in size from 20,000-250,000 square feet. Warehouse Buildings: Includes buildings of 50,000 square feet and greater with a minimum clear height of 16 feet. They have multiple dock-high doors and are primarily used for storage and/or distribution of goods. High-Cube Warehouse Distribution: A sub-type of Warehouse buildings, high-cube buildings include buildings 50,000 square feet and greater with a minimum clear height of 26 feet. Typically the buildings provide dock-high doors at a ratio of one door per 10,000 square feet or more. Light Industrial Buildings: Includes buildings in which the space is used primarily for development, service, production, storage or distribution of goods. Buildings range in size from 10,000-100,000 square feet. Under-Construction/Renovation: Includes buildings that are in some phase of construction, beginning with foundation work and ending with the issuance of a Certificate of Occupancy. Also includes buildings that are undergoing substantial renovation. R&D Flex: Includes buildings designed to allow its occupants flexibility of alternative uses, in a building with multiple tenants, usually in an industrial park setting. Buildings range in size from 4,800-25,000 square feet. Average Sales Price: Calculated using a straight average of actual sales transactions. Incubator: Includes buildings designed to allow alternative uses by multiple tenants who occupy less than 4,000 square feet. Buildings range in size from 4,800-25,000 square feet. p. 4 Colliers International - stockton
research & forecast report Q4 2011 industrial Industrial Michael Goldstein, SIOR Managing Partner +1 209 475 5106 michael.goldstein@colliers.com Wes Widmer Vice President +1 209 475 5109 wes.widmer@colliers.com RETAIL ADMINISTRATIVE Gregory O Leary, SIOR Senior Vice President +1 209 475 5108 g.oleary@colliers.com Tim Mustin Senior Associate / Research Analyst I +1 209 475 5110 tim.mustin@colliers.com 512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continents United States: 125 Canada: 38 Latin America: 18 Asia Pacific: 214 EMEA: 95 $1.5 billion in annual revenue 979 million square feet under management Over 12,500 professionals Maria Marquez Office Manager +1 209 475 5115 maria.marquez@colliers.com Barbara McDermott Administrative Assistant +1 209 475 5100 barbara.mcdermott@colliers.com Stockton OFFICE: 3439 Brookside Rd. Suite 108 Stockton, CA 95219 United States tel +1 209 475 5100 FAX +1 209 475 5102 MANAGING PARTNER: Michael Goldstein, SIOR Managing Partner tel +1 209 475 5106 michael.goldstein@colliers.com CA License No. 01319234 RESEARCHER: Tim Mustin Senior Associate/Research Analyst tel +1 209 475 5110 tim.mustin@colliers.com This report and other research materials may be found at www. colliers.com <http://www.colliers.com>. This report is a research document of Colliers International - Stockton California. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at +1 209 475 5110. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable and no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. As new, corrected or updated information is obtained, it is incorporated into both current and historical data, which may invalidate comparison to previously issued reports. 2012 Colliers International. Accelerating success. www.colliers.com/stockton Colliers International - Stockton p. 6