Q1.15 LAND Land prices up 17.6 per cent, across Nairobi, as Hass and Stanlib unveil expanded city index Land prices across Nairobi rose by 17.6 per cent in the year to end-march, and 4.5 per cent on the previous quarter, to be 5.5 times greater than in December 2007. The results are drawn from an expanded index, launched today, now for 18 Nairobi suburbs, up from 9 suburbs covered in the last quarter The fastest land prices rises in the year were in Loresho and Ridgeways, at over 40 per cent increases inside 12 months A second tier of high inflation areas were Upper Hill, Gigiri, and Nyari Commercial areas remain far more expensive than residential areas, with low end, high density acreage fetching almost ten times the price of high end, low density acreage Of the 18 suburbs now covered, the most expensive suburbs in average land prices were Upper Hill, Kilimani and Parklands and the cheapest land is currently in Donholm, followed by Karen and Langata, all at below Sh50m an acre Land Index Highlights: Nairobi Composite-18 Land Index Quarter Annual From 2007 All Suburbs 4.5% 17.6% 549.9% Quarter Annual From 2007 Composite-9 Land Price Index Highest Priced Land in Category Lowest Priced Land in Category Suburb with Highest Quarterly Increase in Land Price 4.2% 17.3% Upperhill Karen Lavington ( +6.3%) 557% Quarter Annual From 2007 Composite-9 Land Price Index Highest Priced Land in Category Lowest Priced Land in Category 6.1% 16.5% Parklands Donholm 514% Suburb with Highest Quarterly Increase in Land Price Loresho ( +13.3%)
Q1.15 LAND HassConsult today announced the results of the Nairobi land price index, in partnership with Stanlib investment managers, based on advertised land prices in 18 of the city's suburbs, and showing some real slowdown in the city's rate of land inflation. The index, based on advertised land prices in the city since 2007, reported extremely high growth rates in 2009 and 2010, with some suburbs experiencing land price rises of over 70 per cent in 2009, and of over 50 per cent in 2010. Overall, land inflation across the 18 city suburbs reached 42.5 per cent in 2009, before dipping to 25.4 per cent in 2010, and climbing again to 31.8 per cent in 2011. However, the last three years have brought more subdued land inflation, of 19.3 per cent in 2012, 19.9 per cent in 2013, and 17.9 per cent in 2014. The slower price growth represents the maturing of some now highly developed suburbs, where land price rises are running at below the rate of overall inflation in the country. This is being offset by continued high growth in just a few key hotspots across the city. Land buying as an investment now requires clear sight of development activity and an eye for areas still holding any under-valuation, said James Muratha, East Africa Director of Stanlib, commenting on the index. In the first quarter of 2015, the two suburbs to experience the sharpest price growth were Loresho, where land prices rose 13.3 per cent in the first three months of the year, followed by Ridgeways, where the 12 weeks brought land price rises of 8.6 per cent over the previous quarter. The annual land price growth for these two suburbs reached 41 per cent for Loresho and 41.4 per cent for Ridgeways. However, the two areas were outliers in current land inflation trends. A second tier of high price growth areas Upper Hill, Gigiri and Nyari all reported growth over the 12 months to end- March 2015 of around 30 per cent. In March 2015, Upper Hill had the most expensive land acreage in Nairobi, at an average price of Sh484m per acre, up 30.2 per cent on a year earlier, but now stabilizing, up just 2.4 per cent in the first quarter. Nonetheless, from such a high base level, the subdued growth accounted for an Sh11m average price increase per acre in Upper Hill in the three months. The next most expensive land in the city by the end of Q1 was in Kilimani, Parklands and Westlands, all running at round at average prices per acre of Sh380m to Sh390m. Of the 18 suburbs surveyed, the lowest average prices are currently in Donholm, followed by Karen and Langata, all at below Sh50m an acre. Karen, which experienced high land price rises, of over 40 per cent a year in each of 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012, has since seen far more subdued rises, averaging less than 20 per cent a year. The price growth in Karen was 11.4 per cent in the year to end-march 2015. Of the high development areas, only Upper Hill is experiencing continued strong price growth, which is now also slowing. Overall, land price rises are now much sharper in middle level development areas. Current trends affirm that the highest returns come from being ahead of the curve and spotting the next area to rise, rather than buying into areas that are now well advanced in the development curve, said Mr Muratha. For more information, please contact: James Muratha - Regional Director, Stanlib Sakina Hassanali - Head of Research, HassConsult
Q1.15 LAND High Development Activity Suburb Index Highlights: High Development Activity Suburbs Quarter Annual From 2007 Average Value Per Acre 25 Percentile 75 Percentile Karen 5.5% 11.4% 607% 47,400,000 53,800,000 Kileleshwa 3.1% 18.5% 633% 260,300,000 233,000,000 292,700,000 Kilimani 5.1% 22.9% 585% 390,500,000 350,000,000 450,000,000 Langata 3.3% 11.0% 441% 47,500,000 42,000,000 50,000,000 Lavington 6.3% 19.1% 519% 215,100,000 150,000,000 260,000,000 Runda 0.5% 7.3% 485% 67,000,000 56,000,000 Spring Valley -2.2% 3.0% 384% 144,000,000 170,000,000 Upperhill 2.4% 30.2% 808% 484,800,000 420,000,000 558,300,000 Westlands 4.8% 10.6% 518% 379,200,000 2 4 Medium Development Activity Suburb Index Highlights: Mid Development Activity Suburbs Quarter Annual From 2007 Average Value Per Acre 25 Percentile 75 Percentile Donholm -1.2% 13.9% 446% 41,400,000 35,000,000 50,000,000 Eastleigh 4.7% 1.5% 609% 292,600,000 258,500,000 320,000,000 Gigiri 6.0% 29.1% 548% 192,900,000 170,000,000 206,250,000 Kitisuru 6.6% 23.4% 458% 63,200,000 52,000,000 71,500,000 Loresho 13.3% 41.0% 445% 70,700,000 65,000,000 75,000,000 Muthaiga 3.6% 18.2% 405% 107,500,000 95,000,000 125,000,000 Nyari 4.7% 28.4% 643% 107,200,000 91,750,000 116,250,000 Parklands 7.4% 11.3% 494% 384,100,000 337,000,000 456,000,000 Ridgeways 8.6% 41.4% 560% 64,900,000 54,000,000 70,000,000
Q1.15 LAND Index December 2007 = 100 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Hass Land Index The Hass Composite Land Index is representative of land for sale in Nairobi covering 9 high development activity suburbs. Land values have increased by 5.57 times since December 2007. - Average Asking Price in KSh.s 200,000,000 1 160,000,000 1 100,000,000 Average Land Price 60,000,000 20,000,000 0 The annual average is representative of the average price of land for sale in Nairobi covering 9 high development activity suburbs. The average value for Land has gone from 32.5 million in December 2007 per acre to 181.0 million in March 2015. 4.9% 3.9% 16.0% Supply of Advertised Land 15.6% 8.2% 10.3% 22.7% 12.2% 6.3% Karen Kileleshwa Kilimani Langata Lavington Runda Spring Valley Upperhill Westlands The Mix is a measure of the percentage that each high development suburb represents in the market for Nairobi. Between 2007 and 2014, Land in Karen took up 22.7% of the market, Kileleshwa took up 6.3%, Kilimani 12.2%, Langata 10.3%, Lavington 15.6%, Runda 16.0%, Spring Valley 4.9% %, Upperhill 3.9% and Westlands 8.2% respectively
Q1.15 LAND Index December 2007 = 100 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Hass Land Index The Hass Composite Land Index is representative of land for sale in Nairobi covering 9 high development activity suburbs. Land values have increased by 5.14 times since December 2007. - Average Asking Price in KSh.s Average Land Price 160,000,000 1 100,000,000 60,000,000 20,000,000 The annual average is representative of the average price of land for sale in Nairobi covering 9 high development activity suburbs. The average value for Land has gone from 32.5 million in December 2007 per acre to 143.7 million in March 2015 0 Supply of Advertised Land 11.9% 10.9% 11.3% 10.5% 9.3% 8.9% 18.3% 10.2% Donholm Eastleigh Gigiri Kitisuru Loresho Muthaiga Nyari Parklands The Mix is a measure of the percentage that each high development suburb represents in the market for Nairobi. Between 2007 and 2014, Land in Donholm took up 9.3% of the market, Eastleigh took up 8.9%, Gigiri 10.2%, Kitisuru 18.3%, Loresho 8.7%, Muthaiga 11.3%, Nyari 10.9%, Parklands 11.9% and Ridgeways 10.5% respectively 8.7% Ridgeways
Q1.15 LAND Land as an Investment Land Performance vs Commodities Nairobi's prime land (High Development Activity Index Dec 2007 = 100 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Suburbs) saw a 557% increase in prices over 7 years as did secondary land (Medium Development Activity Suburbs) 514%, compared with cattle as the next best investment at 61% over the same period, followed by gold at an 0.0 increase of 53% and Crude Oil which fell 38.6%. Land (High) Land (Medium) Gold Crude Oil Live Cattle (CME) 200,000,000 1 Land Performance vs Other Asset Classes Ksh. 32.4 invested at the end of 2007 would have been worth KSh. 181.0m by the end of March 2015 160,000,000 1 100,000,000 60,000,000 20,000,000 0 if invested in Nairobi prime land (High Development Activity Suburbs), KSh. 166.9m if invested in secondary land (Medium Development Activity Suburbs), KSh. 63.9m if invested in property, KSh. 59.1m if invested in bonds and KSh. 36.5m if invested in savings. Land (High) Land (Medium) Property Equities Bonds Inflation Savings