HAMPTON ROADS MARKET REVIEW MULTIFAMILY Author Data Analysis Financial Support Disclosure Charles Dalton Real Data The E. V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development (CREED) functions and reports are funded by donations from CREED IPAC and Council Advisory Boards, organizations and individuals. The data used for this report are deemed reliable; however, neither Old Dominion University, the E. V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development, nor sponsoring companies and/or individuals makes any representation or warranty as to its accuracy. 212 MULTI-FAMILY 69
212 M U LT I - FA M I LY General Overview The Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News Apartment Report, published by Real Data, is a detailed analysis of the rental market within conventional apartment communities in the Hampton Roads region. The area has been divided into nine submarkets: Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg and York County. Combined, these areas contain a survey base of over 95, units within conventional apartment communities of 5 or more units each. The Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News market is divided into two portions by the James River. The Peninsula area is north of the James River and contains Hampton, Newport News, Williamsburg and York County. The Tidewater area is south of the James River and contains Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk and Virginia Beach; also known as South Hampton Roads. The cities with the highest concentration of units are Virginia Beach and Newport News, which accounts for nearly one half of the region s apartment units. Virginia Beach 25% Suffolk 1% Portsmouth 8% Submarket Percentages Williamsburg 4% Norfolk 15% York County 2% Chesapeake 11% Hampton 12% Newport News 22% The Hampton Roads apartment market has remained stable over the past 18-24 months. Occupancy rates for the overall market are 94% which is higher than most major metros in the southeast. Looking ahead, apartments should see improving fundamentals due to strengthening demand for rentals in lieu of home ownership. Development activity increased over the second half of 21 as investors and developers looked to take advantage of a rebounding rental market. As of October 21, there were nearly 2, units under construction; however, this equates to only a 2% growth rate in supply over the next 12-24 months which will help keep occupancies at or above current levels. The average quoted rental rate is $926, with one-bedroom rents averaging $825 per month, two-bedroom units averaging $932 per month, and three-bedroom units reporting an average rental rate of $1,13 per month. Average rental rates from existing inventory increased by $14.6 in the last twelve months. Although rents have risen in each of the last three years, rent growth over the past 18 months has lagged the larger increases recorded in many other cities. 212 Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 7
HISTORICAL APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News Development of apartment units in this market peaked during two time periods, the early 197s and the late 198s. Although current development activity is being slowed by tighter lending restrictions, there are nearly 2, units expected to come on line within the next 18 months with less than 4, housing units of any type permitted in 211. TABLE I Historical Apartment Development 25, 2, Number of Units 15, 1, 5, Pre- 64 65-69 7-74 75-79 8-84 85-89 9-94 95-99 - 4 5-9 1-12 Year Built 212 MULTI-FAMILY 71
212 M U LT I - FA M I LY MULTI-FAMILY PERMIT ACTIVITY Historical Multi-Family Building Permits Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News Overall housing development in the region was at its peak from 22-26 with more than 1, permits issued annually for single and multi-family housing. With the slow down in the overall housing market, residential permits issued fell to 5,223 in 29 which is less than half of the activity at the peak of the market in 25. Based on single and multifamily permits issued, the slow down in new housing starts is expected to continue with less than 4 units permitted in 211. Multi-family permit activity, which includes rental and for-sale units, was strongest in 25. However, much of the permit activity up until 29 had not been rental apartments, but instead for-sale condominiums and townhouses, especially in recent years when a decline in interest rates made it easier for many people to get into the forsale arena. Multifamily development and apartments in particular, saw a surge in activity in 211 with more than 24 multi-family, including rental and for-sale, units permitted compared to only 761 units in 21. TABLE II Annual Multi-Family Permit Activity 3,2 3, 2,8 2,6 3,85 2,4 Permits Issued 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,519 2,355 2,292 2,339 1,315 1,811 2,336 1, 8 6 4 2 1,159 761 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 (thru Nov.) 212 Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 72
TABLE III Multi-Family Permits Issued Past Year 5 Number of Permits 4 3 2 1 191 223 55 88 178 234 419 28 66 67 2 Nov. 21 7 Dec. 21 Jan. 211 Feb. 211 Mar. 211 12 Apr. 211 May 211 Jun. 211 Jul. 211 Aug. 211 Sep. 211 Oct. 211 Nov. 211 APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY As of the 4th quarter of 211, there were 1,94 apartment units under construction within twelve communities in the Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News market. There are an additional 2,563 apartment units proposed to start construction within the next year. Chesapeake, Newport News, Norfolk and Virginia Beach are the most active areas for new apartment development with twenty-three communities either underway or in planning. TABLE IV Apartment Development Activity (October 211) Number of Units 1,1 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Chesapeake Hampton Newport News Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach Williamsburg York County 212 MULTI-FAMILY Under Construction Proposed 73
212 M U LT I - FA M I LY DEMAND Demand for housing can be measured by calculating the number of housing units absorbed within a given time frame. Absorption is defined as the net change in occupied units. Therefore, positive absorption occurs when previously vacant or newly built dwellings become occupied. Based on historical performance, the Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News area is expected to absorb between 6 and 9 units annually. The collapse of the housing markets nationwide and the weakening economy caused a significant drop in demand for all types of housing in 28. The area experienced a surge in demand for rental units in 29 and 21. This was due in part to the depressed for-sale housing market and householder preferences switching from ownership to renting. The area saw a decrease in demand in 211 with only 628 units absorbed. This was less than half the rate of absorption occurring in 29 and 21. The slowdown in demand may be due in part to the same force (depressed for-sale housing market) that bolstered demand in the prior two years. Only this time, home prices and mortgage rates have dropped to such low levels that ownership is looking more financially appealing than renting in some cases. In addition, some distressed single family and condominium properties are moving into the rental pool and adding a new source of supply to compete with apartments for renters. Although the outlook for rental demand is expected to remain strong for the next several years, job growth is the ultimate driver for housing demand and a rebounding job market will be needed to sustain demand long term. TABLE V Absorption 22 2 18 16 14 Units Absorbed (Demand) 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 74
Table VI Submarket Absorption 211 7 6 Absorption (Annual) 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Chesapeake Hampton Newport News Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach Williamsburg York County VACANCY The overall vacancy rate for the Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News market as of October 211 was 6.4%, up from 5.7% in 21. Vacancy rates are expected to remain in the 6% range through 213. TABLE VII Overall Vacancy Vacancy Rate (Annual) 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 MULTI-FAMILY 75
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MULTI-FAMILY SUBMARKETS Southside Chesapeake Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach Peninsula Hampton Newport News York County Williamsburg 212 MULTI-FAMILY 77
212 M U LT I - FA M I LY Most submarkets experienced a slight rise in vacancies over the past year other than Williamsburg which saw its vacancy rate improve slightly. Although vacancy rates rose modestly in the past year, the area s vacancy rate remains much lower than most other cities in the southeast. Hampton Roads historically has maintained a relatively healthy vacancy rate even in weak economic cycles due to the strong and consistent demand from the military bases for rental housing in the area. Table VIII Submarket Vacancy Rates 9% 8% 7% Number of Units 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Chesapeake Hampton Newport News Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach October 21 October 211 Williamsburg York County Overall RENTAL RATES As of October 211, the average rental rate in Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News was $926. Table IX Average Rental Rates (New & Existing Communities) $1 $9 $8 $7 Average Rental Rate $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 78
AVERAGE RENTS Average overall rents ranged from a low of $821 in Newport News to a high of $1,2 in Chesapeake. Newport News, Portsmouth, Suffolk and Hampton all reported rents lower than the average rent of $926 per month, while Norfolk, Williamsburg, York County, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake all reported rents higher than the average overall rent. TABLE X Average Rent by Submarket October 211 $11 $1 Average Rent (Lowest to Highest) $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Newport News Portsmouth Suffolk Hampton Overall Norfolk Williamsburg York County Virginia Beach Chesapeake 212 MULTI-FAMILY 79
212 M U LT I - FA M I LY MANAGEMENT There were over 47 conventional apartment communities with more than 5 units surveyed in the Hampton Roads region. Of the 92,+ apartment units surveyed, the top five firms manage one-third of these units. The majority of the management firms oversee one or two apartment communities and have 5 or less units under management. Table XI Top 1 Management Companies S.L. Nusbaum Realty Co. Harbor Group Management Co. Drucker & Falk Real Estate Lawson Companies Inc. Breeden Management Company Weinstein Properties Real Estate Kotarides Companies Property Management Ripley-Heatwole Company, Inc. Perrel Management Company, Inc. Bonaventure Group Inc. % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% REGIONAL TRENDS Richmond Richmond has over 6, conventional apartment units within communities of at least 5 units. The area s apartments hit bottom in the fourth quarter of 29 and first quarter of 21 when occupancies fell to 9% and rents declined by (-3.5%) for the year. Since that time Richmond has seen a strong resurgence in rental demand and occupancies reached nearly 93% in 211. Rents also showed modest growth over the past two years with rents now averaging $855 per month. Roanoke Roanoke has fewer than 1, conventional apartment units among communities of at least 3 units. Roanoke s apartment market coped better than most markets during the past recession. This was due in large part to the fact that there has been minimal new apartment development in Roanoke over the past several years which has kept the rental supply at a manageable level. Occupancy rates in 211 were 93.9% with rent averaging $693 per month. 212 Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review 8