California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics December 2018
Sales Reached the Lowest Level since Jan 2015 California, December 2018 Sales: 372,260 Units, -5.2% YTD, -11.6% YTY 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - Dec-17: 420,960 Dec-18: 372,260 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
California Home Sales Continued on a Declining Trend 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) -25% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-1 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
YoY % chg. Bay Area Sales Had the Largest YOY Decline since Oct 2010 30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -17.5% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Southern California Home Sales Continued to Dip by Double-Digit YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -17.3% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Central Valley Sales Dropped the Most in Nearly Five Years YoY % chg. 30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) 20% 10% 0% -2.7% -10% -20% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Sales Declined in All Price Segments December 2018 (YTY% Chg.) 0% -5% -10% $0 - $199k $200 - $299k Share by Price Segment 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 5.9% 15.6% -15% -20% -11.7% -17.8% -15.6% -15.3% -15.6% -16.7% -18.2% $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k 14.1% 16.3% 23.8% -25% $750 - $999k 10.2% -30% -28.1% $1,000 - $1,999k 11.0% $2,000k+ 3.2% SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
Home Prices Continued to Grow but at a Very Modest Pace California, December 2018: $557,600, +0.5% MTM, +1.5% YTY $700,000 $600,000 P:May-07 $594,530 Dec-17: $549,550 Dec-18: $557,600 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
YTY% Chg. in Price 50% 40% Price Growth Remained near Lowest Level since Early 2012 Condo Single-Family Homes 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes
Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Median Price $600,000 Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling off as Markets Move into Off Season Condo $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Dec-17: $446,840 Dec-18: $460,660 $200,000 $100,000 $0 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
CA Median Price (Existing SFH) 15% Month-to-Month % Chg 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile California Year-Over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (November 2018) 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -0.4% -2.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.8% -2.6% -4.0% -5.0% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Quintile -3.8% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 YTY% Chg. in Price 40% List Price Suggests a Bounce Back in Sales Price Growth California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth Sales Price Growth Lags List Price Growth by 4-6 Months 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
1/1/2010 4/1/2010 7/1/2010 10/1/2010 1/1/2011 4/1/2011 7/1/2011 10/1/2011 1/1/2012 4/1/2012 7/1/2012 10/1/2012 1/1/2013 4/1/2013 7/1/2013 10/1/2013 1/1/2014 4/1/2014 7/1/2014 10/1/2014 1/1/2015 4/1/2015 7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018 7/1/2018 10/1/2018 Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 38.3%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3% California Reduced-Price Listings 50% 10% 38.3% 45% 9% 40% 8% 35% 7% 30% 6% 25% 5% 20% 4% 15% 3% 4.3% 10% 2% 5% 1% 0% 0% Share Reduced Median Reduction SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
PRICE PER SQ. FT. Price Per Square Inched Up from Last Year, but Declined from November December 2018: $268, Down 5.0% MTM, Up 1.1% YTY $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Dec-17: $266 Dec-18: $268 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
Sales-to-List Price Ratio Sales Price -to-list Price Hit the Lowest Level since Jan 2015 December 2018: 97.4%, -0.5% MTM, -1.3% YTY 100% Dec-17: 98.7% Dec-18: 97.4% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile 100.5% 100.0% 100.0% 99.8% 99.5% 99.0% 98.5% 99.3% 99.2% 98.4% 98.9% 98.4% 98.7% 98.0% 97.5% 97.0% 96.9% 96.5% 96.0% 95.5% 95.0% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Dec-17 Dec-18 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
DAYS ON MARKET Time on Market Rises as the Market Slows California, December 2018: 32.0 Days 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes
Median Time on Market by Percentile California Median Time on Market by Quintile 30 25 21 28 22 27 21 28 28 23 24 25 21 23 23 27 20 18 17 17 18 15 10 5 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Dec-17 Dec-18 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes
Inventory Index Down MTM but Up from 2017 December 2017: 2.5 Months; December 2018: 3.5 Months 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings Continued to Increase for the 9 th Consecutive Month Year-over-Year % Chg 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 30.6% SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes
Housing Supply Improved across the Board Dec 2018 Active Listing 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20.4% 37.7% 49.1% 39.9% 26.3% 30.6% 10% 0% 1.9% 6.8% SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Fall 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings Active Listings Increased in All Regions 30,000 25,000 20,000 19,900 Dec-17 26,610 Dec-18 15,000 10,000 7,755 9,591 5,000 2,699 4,441 1,870 2,096 0 San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
Year-to-Year % Chg Active Listings Increased in All Regions Dec 2018 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 65% 34% -18% -17% -16% San Francisco Bay Area Sales Active Listings 24% 12% -25% Southern California Central Valley Central Coast SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
Inventory Index Highest in Millions 12 10 8 California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment 7.5 10.1 6 5.6 4 2 3.4 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.8 2.9 2.0 4.4 4.1 3.2 2.6 4.1 2.5 3.5 0 Dec-17 Dec-18 SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings by Month 70,000 California Active Listings by Month 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2017 2018