October 2018 Housing Health Report Remodeling spend increases as housing supply tightens New construction is slowing, but reinvestment into existing housing stock is trending. Florida maintenance activity is down year over year, a lasting effect of Hurricane Irma. Accessory dwelling units (ADUs) are on the upswing, particularly in California and Oregon. THE LEADING PROVIDER OF PROPERTY CONDITION AND HISTORY DATA.
NEW HOUSING SUPPLY Single-family housing authorizations notably decreased 3.08 percent from September to October 2018. Year over year, authorizations remained flat in October. This performance is atypical for U.S. housing authorizations in the last five years. They generally climb at a steady pace. However, the trailing three-month outlook (August to October 2018) compared to the same time frame last year is still ticking upwards at 5.57 percent. EXISTING HOUSING SUPPLY Housing maintenance reflects the health of the existing housing supply, encompassing work done on existing structures. In October 2018, existing housing maintenance spend increased at a year-over-year rate of 2.90 percent, in line with a slight tick upward in maintenance volume at 0.41 percent. Existing remodel spend a subset of maintenance that includes renovations, additions and alterations increased at a year-over-year rate of 16.57 percent in that same time frame. This uptick is expected for remodel spend, however it s still notable considering annual remodel volumes dipped 4.21 percent. 0.00% Y/Y Increase SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING AUTHORIZATIONS 3.08% M/M Decrease THOUSAND OF UNITS 10K 9K 8K 7K 6K 5K 4K 3K 2K 1K a+84+76+87+90+89+91 32+29+35+36+34+34 0.41% EXISTING MAINTENANCE AND REMODEL VOLUME Y/Y Increase in Maintenance 4.21% Y/Y Decrease in Remodeling SEP 2016 OCT 2016 SEP 2017 OCT 2017 SEP 2018 OCT 2018 October 2018 2
Home prices are outpacing wage growth substantially. These affordability concerns are compounded by mounting mortgage rates and rising construction costs. As a result, homeowners, unable to re-enter the housing market, are reinvesting in their existing properties. The increase in remodel spend suggests the scope of these projects has risen, despite seeing a dip in remodel volume. Homeowners may feel unprepared to enter the housing market, but they are making larger investments in the health of their existing property. HOLLY TACHOVSKY, CEO, BUILDFAX October 2018 3
TOP 5 STATES WITH THE HIGHEST MAINTENANCE VOLUME, OCTOBER 2018 U.S. MAINTENANCE ACTIVITY Maintenance activity is a critical indicator of 4 Y/Y % CHANGE economic health, particularly as U.S. housing stock ages. In fact, residential properties that 2 3 5 1 FL: -7.83% CA: -5.39% TX: 3.90% MN: -2.46% MO: 14.86% undergo regular maintenance are correlated with decreased insured losses. While volumes provide insight into which states offer the most active housing market, maintenance activity per capita reveals which rural markets see strong performance from their housing sector. TOP 5 STATES WITH THE HIGHEST MAINTENANCE VOLUME PER CAPITA, 0CTOBER 2018 3 1 2 4 5 Y/Y % CHANGE MN: -2.46% MO: 14.86% NE: -15.52% FL: -7.83% MA: 9.53% Minnesota has experienced substantial maintenance activity leading the pack in per capita maintenance volume since 2013. House listings in Minnesota have decreased in the past three years, while the average sales price of properties increased more than 5 percent annually in that same time frame, aligning with BuildFax research. 1 Meanwhile, Florida demonstrates steep declines in year-over-year maintenance activity (-7.83 percent) even as it holds a top spot on volume and per capita rankings. The decline is caused in part by Hurricane Irma, which inflated maintenance volume statewide in the months following the September 2017 event. 1 Annual Report on the Minnesota Housing Market October 2018 4
SPOTLIGHT: ADU ACTIVITY As cities increase in density and home prices continue rising, accessory dwelling units (ADUs) have become a popular addition to properties and a potential solution to affordable housing concerns. Also known as granny flats, ADUs are small living spaces added on to or on the same grounds of an existing property. These spaces are often used by an elderly parent, older child or even a renter. By a measure of sheer volume, California is the most active state for new ADU construction and maintenance. California saw a substantial jump in ADU construction, climbing 53.69 percent year to date compared to the same time period last year. California is followed closely by Oregon and Washington, both seeing high ADU growth at 25.91 percent and 21.99 percent respectively. ADUs are particularly advantageous in Oregon, where its largest city, Portland, is in a housing state of emergency due to its growing population. 2 In addition to rapid population growth, California, Oregon and Washington also share ADU-friendly housing regulations inside city limits. STATES WITH INCREASING ADU CONSTRUCTION 2018 YEAR-TO-DATE % CHANGE CALIFORNIA OREGON WASHINGTON 63+31+25 21.99% 25.91% 53.69% California has experienced the highest ADU volumes since October 2016. 2 Portland Extends State of Emergency October 2018 5
ABOUT BUILDFAX BuildFax, headquartered in Austin, Texas, is trusted by the largest insurance and financial institutions in the world to deliver business-critical property condition and history data. With the only database of its kind encompassing more than 23 billion data points on commercial and residential structures, BuildFax delivers detailed data on remodeling, solar installations, new construction, roof age, major systems, maintenance history and more. METHODOLOGY BuildFax conducted this study by examining properties in the U.S. between the years 2013 and 2018. The statistics in this report are calculated using sampled data from across the U.S. All data is seasonally adjusted and imputed to reflect numbers representative of the entire country. Due to historical revisions made by permitting authorities, the data is subject to change. Estimates are as of November 8, 2018. Learn more about our property condition and history data at BuildFax.com October 2018 6