STATE OF THE MARKET QUARTERLY MARKET RESEARCH REPORT SPONSORED BY TERRA114i\tJ COVER DESIGN BY Ballistic Arts '-.:7MEDIA STUDIOS INC PRODUCED BY URBAN ANALYTICS
Table of Contents UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication ( 218).. 4 Population... 7 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) 28 Present 1.2 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) Growth Rate (%yoy) 1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration 1.4 British Columbia International Migration 1.5 British Columbia Net Migration 1.6 BC s Population Growth Breakdown Economic Indicators..... 8 2.1 Five-Year Posted Rate (%) 2.2 Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver 2.3 Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 28 Present 2.4 BC Unemployment Rate 2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 28 Present 2.6 Canada GDP: 28 Present Economic Indicators......9 3.1 Budgetary Balance - Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 28 Present 3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 BC Bankruptcies 3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded Housing Economic Indicators... 1 4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations 4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations Housing Economic Indicators... 11 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts 5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts 5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts 5.4 Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver 5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver 5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums.. 12 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales 6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels 6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels Table of Contents Page 2
New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums... 13 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales 7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels 7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels New Home Data: Townhomes... 14 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing 8.2 Townhome Sales 8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels 8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels UA Affordability Index: New Home Data.. 15 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums 9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums 9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver... 16 1.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 1.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 1.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 1.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 1.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 1.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board.... 17 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 11.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 11.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments... 18 12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver 12.2 Turnover Rates by Region 12.3 Availability Rates by Region 12.4 Current Rent Per Square Foot 12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages Methodology & Definitions. 19 Definitions Analytical Methods Other Assumptions Sources... 2 Sources Table of Contents Page 3
UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication Welcome to the latest edition of UDI Pacific s State of the Market quarterly publication. The State of the Market report provides current quarterly statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale housing markets as well as a composite of relevant economic statistics that impact the housing market. The report also includes statistics on the newer purpose-built rental market in Metro Vancouver, and the UDI/Urban Analytics Housing Affordability Index which is derived from Urban Analytics NHSLive database, and BC Housing s new home registry statistics. Population Growth & Housing Starts 12 1 8 6 4 Metro Vancouver Housing Starts and Population Change (15+) 11 99 87 8167 69 6334 62 5542 5277 4713 Housing Starts Population Change (15+) 2 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 217 Q1 218 Q2 218 Q3 218 218 The table above shows the trend of Metro Vancouver s housing starts and population change over the past four years. Metro Vancouver experienced its first decline in population growth rate since -217. Despite this decline in growth rate, Metro Vancouver s total 15+ population did increase by 8,7 residents while total housing starts carried on its downward trend for the fourth consecutive quarter. Total housing starts (4,713 in ) were down 42 percent year-over-year and were down seven percent compared to the five-year average of fourth quarters. The decline in housing starts was most pronounced in the apartment and townhome sectors, which recorded 47 and 42 percent fewer starts compared to the same quarter last year. 3. Metro Vancouver Population Change (15+) per Housing Start 2.5 2. 1.5 1. 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.7.8 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.8.5. 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 217 Q1 218 Q2 218 Q3 218 218 The above chart shows the ratio of Metro Vancouver s population growth to housing starts. The ratio of 1.8 was down from the three-year high recorded in the previous quarter and was just below the five-year average of 1.9. It should be noted that a large majority of the new housing starts have already been sold due to strong demand in the pre-sale market. For reference, of the 6,392 units released in projects that were in pre-construction at the end of the quarter, 64 percent (4,97 units) had already been sold. This total will continue to increase before construction of these units completes. Further, the population tables do not factor demand for housing from the 14, Temporary Residents in Metro Vancouver each year (i.e. International Students and Temporary Foreign Workers). Table of Contents Page 4
Local Economic Factors Taxation measures and stricter mortgage lending policies implemented at the start of 218 are among the notable local factors that continue to create uncertainty and pessimism among those seeking to invest in the real estate market in Metro Vancouver. The recently released 219 provincial budget allocated investment funds into social housing but lacked any incentives aimed at increasing the housing and rental supply for middle-income households. The 219 budget projects that, by 222, housing starts will have declined 3 percent from their 217 levels. This implies potential supply shortfalls that could result in the erosion of affordability. Total revenue to be collected from the recently introduced speculation tax is projected to remain steady despite the tax s intent to encourage secondary homeowners to rent out their properties for the purpose of adding more supply to the rental market. If the tax was working as intended, its projected revenue should be declining. Total fourth quarter sales of new homes in Metro Vancouver were down nine percent compared to the same quarter last year. Metro Vancouver s total population continued to grow while total housing starts carried on a downward trend for the fourth consecutive quarter, down 42 percent year-over-year. Net interprovincial migration was down 129.7 percent, representing the first net loss since -212. Net international migration to BC reached an all-time high this quarter, marking significant increases both year-over-year and quarterover-quarter, up 14.3 and 28.5 percent respectively. When compared to the same quarter last year, affordability declined for all new housing types across Metro Vancouver. The only exception was a 1.7 percent year-over-year improvement in new townhome affordability in the City of Vancouver. The largest year-over-year change was a 17.2 percent decline in affordability for new wood frame condominiums in the Inner Metro region. The posted rate for five-year fixed mortgages remained at 5.34 percent for the third consecutive quarter after having increased in each of the four previous quarters. Global Economic Factors While Canadian representatives remain optimistic on reaching a trade agreement with China, relations between the two nations have been complicated somewhat following the house arrest of Huawei s CFO in December and the subsequent detention of Canadian citizens in China. It will be interesting to see if the recent strain in relations will have any notable impact on Chinese demand for real estate in Vancouver. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered from its decline in late 218 and was at the 26, mark in February 219. We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition of the State of the Market report and find it informative, helpful and convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or comments on the publication. Sincerely, Urban Analytics Inc. Michael Ferreira Jon Bennest Table of Contents Page 5
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Population 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 28 Present (15+) 1.2 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) Growth Rate (%) 2,25 1.% Thousands 2,2 2,15 2,1 2,5 2, 1,95 1,9 1,85 1,8 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218.75%.5%.25%.% -.25% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration 1.4 British Columbia International Migration 9, 7, 5, 3, 1, -1, -3, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.5 British Columbia Net Migration 1.6 British Columbia Growth Breakdown 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Metro Vancouver s population continued to grow steadily and was at 2,243, residents at the end of. This was 8,7 more than the previous quarter and 36,5 higher than the same quarter last year. This represents a.39 percent growth rate that was.1 percent lower than last quarter but.11 percent higher than the same quarter last year. Net overall migration to BC remained relatively consistent year-over-year with seasonal spikes occurring in Q3 each year. The most recent update (Q3-218) showed 22,25 additional residents, just 12 below the all-time high recorded last quarter. Note that this was 2.8 percent higher than the same quarter in 216. Net interprovincial migration for the most recent update (Q3-218) was down 129.7 percent from Q2-218 with a net loss of 1,217 migrants, representing the first net loss since -212. International migration to BC reached an all-time high at 23,422 net migrants. This marks significant increases both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, up 14.3 and 28.5 percent respectively. Table of Contents Page 7
Economic Indicators 2.1 Five Year Posted Rate (%) 2.2 Consumer Price Index 8% 135 Canada Metro Vancouver 7% 13 125 6% 12 115 5% 11 15 1 4% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 95 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 2.3 Metro Vancouver: Labour Totals 28 - Present 2.4 British Columbia Unemployment Rate Thousands 1,55 1,5 1,45 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 1,2 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 3% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 28 - Present 2.6 Canada GDP: 28 - Present $24 $2,1 Billions $22 $2 $18 $16 $14 Billions $2, $1,9 $1,8 $1,7 $12 $1,6 $1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $1,5 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 The five-year posted rate remained consistent at 5.34 percent for the third consecutive quarter after having increased in each of the four previous quarters. Metro Vancouver s labour force increased by 39,5 people in and reached a total of 1,523, workers. This total represents a 2.7 percent increase from Q2-218 and a 2.75 percent increase from the same quarter last year. BC s unemployment rate remained at 4.5 percent in : up 4 basis points from the fourth quarter of 217. Canada s consumer price index increased by two percent in 218 while Metro Vancouver s CPI increased by 3.1 percent. Canada recorded $21.4 billion worth of retail sales over Q3-218, which was 1.3 percent lower than the previous quarter and was very similar to the same quarter last year. Canada s GDP rose for the ninth consecutive quarter to $2.6 trillion at the end of Q3-218. This total was up 2.1 percent compared to the same quarter last year and 1.1 percent higher than the same quarter five years ago. Table of Contents Page 8
Economic Indicators 3.1 Budgetary Balance, Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 28 - Present Billions $6 $4 $2 $ -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Millions $2, $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $1, $8 $6 $4 $2 $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 British Columbia Bankruptcies $14 3, $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 Thousands 2,5 2, 1,5 1, $2 5 $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded 31, $2 26, $175 $15 21, 16, Billions $125 $1 $75 11, $5 $25 6, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 The most recent update in Q3-218 showed Canada s budget recording a net deficit of $2.58 Billion, which was down 67 percent from the previous quarter, and was the smallest deficit recorded in nearly five years. Investment in new multi-family construction in BC reached a new all-time high after increasing 14 percent from the previous quarter and 2 percent year-over-year. Note, however, that most of the units under construction have already been sold in the pre-sale market. The price of crude oil dropped to $53.96 USD per barrel by the end of. This marks a 28 percent decrease from the last quarter and a 12 percent decrease from the same quarter last year. There were 992 bankruptcies recorded in BC in Q3-218, which was down 12 percent from the previous quarter but was an increase of three percent year-over-year. The DJIA declined to 23,327 points in ; down six percent year-over-year but still 18 percent above the five-year average. The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at the $148 Billion mark at the end of, which was 29 percent higher than the same quarter last year. Table of Contents Page 9
Housing Economic Indicators 4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations 4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations Vancouver Inner Metro Outer Metro 7 6 5 4 3 2 213 214 215 216 217 218 Vancouver Inner Metro Outer Metro 34 3 26 22 18 14 1 6 2 213 214 215 216 217 218 All new homes in the province must be registered with BC Housing. The registration data is collected by BC Housing in the public registry. The majority of registered new homes are enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against construction defects. The registration of new homes must occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing starts. The new home registrations measure residential construction activities at the beginning of a project before construction commences. A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new home registration data under the Homeowner Protection Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic activity in B.C. The research finds that quarterly increases in new registrations for single-detached homes have statistically significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger signals compared to housing starts and building permits over this forecast horizon. The research report has been published under Staff Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/216/2/sdp216-3.pdf - Single includes the new single detached homes enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved Owner Builder Authorizations. - Multi includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings (2 or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit rental buildings (purpose built rentals). - New 218 data has been added for Squamish (Inner Metro) and Abbotsford (Outer Metro). Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from home warranty insurance from time to time. Single family home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 1,128 in ; down only one percent from last quarter but also down 12 percent year-over-year. This marks a new five-year low. The Outer Metro region accounted for 5 percent of the total single family home registrations, while 28 percent were in the City of Vancouver, and 22 percent were in the Inner Metro region. Multi-family home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 7,85 in : up 86 percent year-over-year and a 53 percent increase from the same quarter five years ago. This marks a new all-time high. Note, however, that a large majority of these units have already been sold in the pre-sale market. The Inner Metro region represented 45 percent (3,16) of the total multi-family home registrations, while 43 percent (3,59) were in the Outer Metro region and 12 percent (866) were in the City of Vancouver. Total multi-family registrations in the Outer Metro and City of Vancouver regions were up by 1,7 and 469 registrations (125 and 118 percent) respectively yearover-year, while overall registrations in the Inner Metro region increased by 1,1 registrations (53 percent). This marks an all-time high for the Outer Metro region and two-year high for the Inner Metro region. Table of Contents Page 1
Housing Economic Indicators 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts 5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts 5.4 Residential Building Permits Metro Vancouver 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Millions $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index 5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates 115 11 15 Metro Vancouver BC Vancouver Tri-Cities/Ridge Meadows Richmond/Delta North Shore Surrey/Langley/White Rock Burnaby/New Westminster 1 2.% Index 95 9 85 1.5% 1.% 8 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218.5%.% A total of 4,713 new housing starts were recorded in ; down by 3,454 starts (42 percent) from the same quarter last year but 121 starts (2.6 percent) higher than the same quarter in 216. Housing start totals declined across all regions and product types compared to last quarter. The largest contributor to housing start totals in was the condominium sector, which accounted for 65 percent (3,66 starts) of all new starts. Townhome starts totaled 597 in with 59 percent (35 starts) located in the Inner Metro region, 39 percent (235 starts) in the Outer Metro region, and two percent (12 starts) in the City of Vancouver. The new home price indices for both Metro Vancouver and BC decreased from last quarter by.27 percent and.19 percent, respectively. This marked the first decreases for Metro Vancouver since Q1-217 and for BC since Q1-215. Rental housing vacancy rates remained well below two percent across all municipalities. Metro Vancouver s overall rental housing vacancy rate has remained at one percent or lower for the last five consecutive years and below two percent for the last nine consecutive years. Table of Contents Page 11
New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 6.3 Concrete Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 A total of 128 new concrete condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in, which represents a 19 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year. The Inner Metro and Outer Metro regions recorded increases in the number of actively selling projects from the previous quarter of 16 and 56 percent respectively, while the number of actively selling projects in the City of Vancouver remained the same. New concrete condominiums sales totaled 3,194 in, which was up by 81 percent from the previous quarter and 21 percent year-over-year. The largest quarter-over-quarter sales increase was in the Outer Metro region (29 percent). This also marked a 2,597 percent increase in sales in this region from the same quarter two years ago. Sales in the Inner Metro and City of Vancouver regions both increased from the previous quarter (51 percent and 27 percent) but decreased from the same quarter two years ago (3 percent and 32 percent). Out of the 3,194 new concrete condominium sales, 58 percent were in the Inner Metro region, 3 percent were in the Outer Metro region, and 12 percent were in the City of Vancouver. Burnaby & New Westminster had 34 percent of all new concrete condominium sales in with a total of 1,95 units sold in those municipalities during the quarter. Central Surrey & North Delta accounted for 28 percent of all new concrete condominium sales with 9 units sold over the quarter. There were 5,918 released and unsold new concrete condominiums at the end of ; a 134 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 31 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year. Out of the 5,918 units of released and unsold concrete inventory, just 99 units (1.7 percent) were move-in ready at the end of the quarter. When compared to the same quarter five years ago, this represents a 68 unit (86 percent) decline in move-in ready concrete condominiums across Metro Vancouver. Richmond & South Delta accounted for 39 of those move-in ready units and Burnaby & New Westminster accounted for 34 of them. Only ten move-in ready units were located in the City of Vancouver. 1: Released and unsold inventory includes new home product available for sale that is pre-construction, under construction, and completed. Standing Inventory refers to unsold units that are complete and move-in ready. Table of Contents Page 12
New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 There were 53 actively selling wood frame condominium projects in Metro Vancouver in with 4 percent of them (21 projects) located in the Inner Metro region and 4 percent (21 projects) located in the Outer Metro region. The City of Vancouver accounted for 21 percent (11 projects). The total number of actively selling wood frame condominium projects remained low and was down by 71 projects (57 percent) from the same quarter five years earlier. A total of 626 new wood frame condominium sales were recorded in ; a 59 unit (45 percent) decrease from the previous quarter, 225 units (26 percent) lower than the same quarter last year. Langley accounted for 75 percent (468 units) of the 626 new wood frame condominium sales in Metro Vancouver this past quarter. Wood frame condominium sales in Vancouver and Inner Metro were both down 61 percent compared to last quarter (down by 11 sales and 224 sales, respectively). There were 1,13 released and unsold new wood frame condominium units at the end of ; only an 82 unit (nine percent) increase from the previous quarter but a 629 unit (164 percent) increase year-over-year. However, when compared to the same quarter five years ago, this represents a 2,166 unit (68 percent) decline. The Outer Metro region represented 57 percent (58 units) of the total available inventory, while 34 percent (343 units) were in the Inner Metro region and nine percent (9 units) in the City of Vancouver. The 58 total units of available inventory in the Outer Metro region was relatively unchanged from the previous quarter but was up by 453 units (357 percent) from the same quarter last year. Only 124 of the 58 released and unsold new wood frame condominiums in Metro Vancouver were move-in ready at the end of. When compared to the same quarter five years ago, this represents an 857 unit (87 percent) decline. Langley and the North Shore accounted for a combined share of 88 percent of Metro Vancouver s total standing inventory of wood frame condominium units with 61 and 48 move-in ready units, respectively. Only six move-in ready wood frame condominium units were located in the City of Vancouver. Table of Contents Page 13
New Home Data: Townhomes 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing 8.2 Townhome Sales 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 12 15 9 75 6 45 3 15 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 8.3 Townhome Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels 9 75 6 4 35 3 25 45 2 3 15 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 15 1 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 The current total number of 95 actively selling new townhome projects increased by only two projects (two percent) compared to last quarter. This total was up by 12 projects (14 percent) year-over-year and was also up by 3 projects (46 percent) from the same quarter two years ago. The Outer Metro region represented 47 percent (45 projects), the Inner Metro region represented 38 percent (36 projects) and the City of Vancouver represented 15 percent (14 projects) of all actively selling projects. recorded a total of 229 new townhome sales; a 49 percent decline (223 fewer sales) from Q3-218 and 71 percent decline (551 fewer sales) year-over-year. All regions across Metro Vancouver experienced decreases in new townhome sales as compared to the previous quarter with the largest decrease of 62 percent (19 fewer sales) occurring in the Inner Metro region. The Outer Metro region accounted for 67 percent (153 sales) of all new townhome sales in Metro Vancouver while 29 percent (67 sales) occurred in the Inner Metro region and four percent (nine sales) occurred in the City of Vancouver. A total of 1,72 new townhome units were released and unsold at the end of, which was up by 231 units (27 percent) from the previous quarter and by 378 units (54 percent) year-over-year. Compared to the same quarter five years ago, this represents a 26 unit (two percent) decline. The Inner Metro and Outer Metro regions each accounted for 47 percent of all released and unsold townhome inventory (58 units and 51 units, respectively), while the City of Vancouver represented only six percent (63 units). This marked the first time in at least eight years that Inner Metro new townhome available inventory surpassed that of the Outer Metro region. All regions across Metro Vancouver experienced increases in released and unsold new townhome inventories as compared to the previous quarter with the largest increase of 24 units (67 percent) occurring in the Inner Metro region. Metro Vancouver had just 172 move-in ready townhomes from the total 1,72 released and unsold townhome inventory at the end of. This was up by 142 units (473 percent) year-over-year. However, when compared to the same quarter five years ago, this represents a 346 unit (67 percent) decline. A total of 153 (89 percent) of those 172 move-in ready townhome units were located in the Outer Metro region, while 13 (eight percent) were in the City of Vancouver, and six (three percent) were in the Inner Metro region. Table of Contents Page 14
UA Affordability Index: New Home Data 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 76.4% 76.5% 77.1% 75.% 73.6% 73.7% 72.4% 73.1% 53.4% 51.5% 52.6% 5.7% 31.6% 31.5% 29.7% 2.9% 44.1% 42.2% 37.2% 34.4% 12.9% 9.% 1.1% 9.5% 55.1% 39.5% 34.7% 31.% 27.2% 33.5% 29.% 29.5% 29.7% 18.% 16.4% 17.8% 4.7% 6.7% 9.% 6.9% 7.2% 7.3% 29.6% 19.6% 6.7% Q2 215 Q3 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 217 Q1 218 Q2 218 Q3 218 218 9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums 71.7% 61.9% 38.2% 73.9% 73.4% 6.% 59.5% 39.9% 36.7% 73.9% 57.1% 3.6% Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 68.2% 66.9% 66.4% 67.4% 57.7% 56.7% 54.5% 52.7% 54.8% 49.1% 48.1% 39.9% 42.1% 47.7% 29.6% 26.8% 29.3% 29.4% 2.5% 33.2% 26.4% 42.% 41.4% 42.1% 26.2% 26.4% 23.2% 15.% 14.6% 14.3% 43.6% 24.9% 15.8% Q2 215 Q3 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 217 Q1 218 Q2 218 Q3 218 218 9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 68.5% 59.% 27.4% 67.9% 64.4% 49.2% 47.9% 32.2% 22.4% 64.7% 49.3% 27.3% 57.9% 53.7% 55.1% 46.4% 36.8% 32.6% 36.6% 36.2% 11.3% 9.% 8.4% 1.3% 47.7% 39.3% 4.2% 52.7% 32.9% 11.% 53.2% 5.9% 52.8% 51.3% 48.4% 28.3% 19.2% 2.6% 17.9% 19.1% 7.1% 8.2% 9.% 7.9% 8.8% Q2 215 Q3 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217 217 Q1 218 Q2 218 Q3 218 218 Overall affordability for most sectors of the new home market across Metro Vancouver improved slightly by upwards of 1.8 percent from the previous quarter. The most significant change was a 2.9 percent erosion in the affordability of new townhomes in the Outer Metro region. Affordability of new concrete condominiums in the City of Vancouver also declined by.6 percent. When compared to the same quarter last year, affordability eroded for all product types across Metro Vancouver. The only exception was a 1.7 percent year-over-year improvement in new townhome affordability in the City of Vancouver. The largest year-over-year change was a 17.2 percent decline in affordability for new wood frame condominiums in the Inner Metro region. Vancouver remained the most unaffordable region with only 15.8 percent of income earning households able to purchase the average priced new wood frame condominium in this area. Just 8.8 percent and 6.7 percent of earning households in Vancouver were able to afford the median new townhome and new concrete condominium, respectively. Table of Contents Page 15
Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver 1.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 1.2 Apartment Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 28 29 21 211 Sales 212 213 214 Listings 215 216 217 218 Thousands $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 1.4 Attached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 2,5 Sales Listings $9 $8 2, $7 1,5 1, 5 Thousands $6 $5 $4 $3 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $2 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 1.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Sales Listings Thousands $1,7 $1,5 $1,3 $1,1 $9 $7 1, $5 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $3 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 A total of 2,255 apartment re-sales, 754 townhome re-sales and 1,368 single family re-sales were recorded in. The total number of re-sales for each product type all reached their lowest points since -212. Single family re-sales were down by 747 sales (35 percent) yearover-year, while apartment and townhome re-sales were down by 1,679 and 528 sales (43 and 41 percent), respectively. While still low, single family, townhome and apartment sales-to-listings ratios all increased by between 2. and 2.9 index points compared to the previous quarter. The benchmark price of all product types in Greater Vancouver in were as follows: Apartment - $671,8, Townhome - $819,133, Single family - $1,51,33. These benchmark prices decreased across all product forms; Single family homes by 4. percent, townhomes by 3.2 percent and apartments by 3.3 percent. This marked the second price decrease for townhome and apartment re-sales, and the third price decrease for single family re-sales since -216. When compared to the same quarter last year, benchmark prices of single family re-sales were down by 6.6 percent while apartments were up by 3.6 percent and townhomes were up by 1.9 percent. Table of Contents Page 16
Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Average Prices Sales Active Listings 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Thousands $45 $425 $4 $375 $35 $325 $3 $275 $25 $225 $2 21 211 212 213 Average Price 214 215 216 217 218 11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 11.4 Attached Re-Sale Average Prices Sales Active Listings 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Thousands $65 $6 $55 $5 $45 $4 $35 $3 21 211 212 213 Average Price 214 215 216 217 218 11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 11.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Average Prices 4, Sales Active Listings $1,2 Average Price 3,5 $1,1 3, $1, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Thousands $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 In, the relevant Fraser Valley municipalities recorded 782 apartment re-sales, 751 townhome re-sales and 1,9 single family re-sales. Re-sales were down across all product types as compared to the same quarter last year; Apartment re-sales were down by 382 sales (33 percent), townhome re-sales were down by 25 sales (25 percent), and single family re-sales were down by 271 sales (21 percent). The relevant Fraser Valley municipalities recorded 1,111 apartment listings, 882 townhome listings and 1,794 single family listings in. Active listings of all product forms increased relative to -217; Apartment listings were up by 791 listings (247 percent), townhome listings were up by 559 listings (173 percent) and single family listings were up by 413 listings (3 percent). The average price of all product forms in the Fraser Valley in were as follows: Apartment - $387,73, Townhome - $566,7, Single Family - $1,34,862. Overall average re-sale prices for all product forms in were down compared to last quarter with the most significant change being a six percent price decline for apartments. Table of Contents Page 17
New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments 12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver 12.2 Rental Unit Turnover Rate by Region Concrete Total Woodframe Total Townhome Total Turnover Rate Occupancy Rate 6 5 4811 Vancouver 2.6% 97.4% 4 3 2 1 299 2133 1654 167 126 Outer Metro 21.1% 78.9% Inner Metro 3.6% 96.4% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12.3 Rental Unit Availability Rate by Region 12.4 Currently Available Average Rent Per Square Foot Availability Rate Occupancy Rate Vancouver 31.9% 68.1% Outer Metro 67.5% 32.5% Inner Metro 38.2% 61.8% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $1.5 $1. $.5 $- Concrete PSF Woodframe PSF Townhome PSF $3.52 $3.1 $2.93 $2.9 $2.5 $2.67 Vancouver PSF Inner Metro PSF Outer Metro PSF 12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Concrete Units Wood Frame Units Townhome Units Page generated with NHSLive Rental data. For more detailed rental information, contact info@urbananalytics.ca for subscription options. The majority of the Rental Apartment data referred to herein as newer purpose-built rental relates to purpose built rental apartment buildings completed since 21. Refer to methodology on page 19. Metro Vancouver recorded a total of 11,89 actively leasing or fully leased purpose-built rental units at the end of, a quarterly increase of 1,91 units. The overall turnover rate for fully leased rental projects across Metro Vancouver was 5.5 percent, which was up 2.6 percent from the previous quarter. The availability rate for all actively leasing projects in Metro Vancouver increased from 9.9 percent last quarter up to 42.3 percent in. The Outer Metro region had the highest rate of availability of recently launched purpose-built rental units at 67.5 percent. Average rents for newer concrete purpose-built rental apartments increased to $3.49 and $2.9 per square foot in Vancouver and Inner Metro, respectively. Rents for newer wood frame rental apartments also increased; averaging $2.92, $2.69 and $2.51 PSF in Vancouver, Inner Metro and Outer Metro respectively. A total of 13,54 purpose-built rental units are currently in the planning stages throughout Metro Vancouver - 4 percent (5,41 units) are in the City of Vancouver, 45 percent (6,139 units) are in the Inner Metro region and 15 percent (1,991 units) are in the Outer Metro region. Note that current market conditions may impact the completion of some of these units as they are all subject to delays and/or postponement. Table of Contents Page 18
Methodology & Definitions Affordability Index Definitions Inner Metro: Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, South Delta, Coquitlam, Port Moody & Port Coquitlam. Outer Metro: Langley, North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Abbotsford. Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East. Prices Prices for the new home market were collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in Metro Vancouver. Re-sale prices were collected from the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley (with median and benchmark prices used). Income The Index uses household income information from Statistics Canada data from the 216 Census Survey. Assumed Down Payments Wood frame and concrete condominiums: 2% Townhomes: 3% The reason for the difference is the assumption that townhome buyers are more likely to be move-up buyers with equity built up in their existing property. Analytical Methods Five year, fixed rate 3-year amortization mortgages were used, taking an average of the best rates at eight banks at the time of analysis and taking the greater of the average plus 2% or the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada. Other Assumptions The affordability index assumes that a person can afford a maximum of 32 percent of their gross family income to go toward mortgage payments. Analytical Methods Methodology & Definitions New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments Chart 12.1: Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver: Sum of move-in ready units by product type. Move-in ready is defined as those projects that are Fully Leased, as well as those that are Active (actively leasing) with standing inventory. Sample size of 11,89 units over 11 newer rental apartment and townhome projects in Metro Vancouver. Chart 12.2: Turnover Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are fully leased only. Chart 12.3: Availability Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are actively leasing only. Chart 12.4: Currently Available Average Rent per Square Foot: A weighted average of rental rates of currently available units in fully leased projects and average rental rates achieved in projects that have been actively leasing for greater than three months. The average per region is based on average dollar per square foot prices of each sub-market. Chart 12.5: Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages: Total units of every project in the contemplated section of the Rental database, by product type. Table of Contents Page 19
Sources Sources 1.1 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.2 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.3 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.4 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.5 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.6 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 2.1 - Bank of Canada 2.2 - BC Stats Consumer Price Index 2.3 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.4 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.5 - Statistics Canada Retail Trade by Province 2.6 - Statistics Canada Gross Domestic Product 3.1 - Stats Canada Revenue, Expenditure & Budget 3.2 - Statistics Canada Investment in New Housing 3.3 - Index Mundi (Monthly Spot Oil Prices) 3.4 - Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics 3.5 Yahoo Finance 3.6 - Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada 4.1 - BC Housing - New Single Family Registrations 4.2 - BC Housing - New Multi-Family Registrations 5.1 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.2 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.3 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.4 - Statistics Canada Building Permits 5.5 - Statistics Canada New Housing Price Indexes 5.6 - CMHC Rental Market Report 6.1 - UA New Home Source Database 6.2 - UA New Home Source Database 6.3 - UA New Home Source Database 6.4 - UA New Home Source Database 7.1 - UA New Home Source Database 7.2 - UA New Home Source Database 7.3 - UA New Home Source Database 7.4 - UA New Home Source Database 8.1 - UA New Home Source Database 8.2 - UA New Home Source Database 8.3 - UA New Home Source Database 8.4 - UA New Home Source Database 9.1 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.2 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.3 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 1.1 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.2 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.3 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.4 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.5 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.6 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 11.1 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.2 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.3 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.4 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.5 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.6 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 12.1 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.2 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.3 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.4 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.5 UA New Home Source Rental Database Table of Contents Page 2