Research & Forecast Report GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG ANDERSON, SC RETAIL Q4 2017 New and improved approach to retail Crystal Baker Research Coordinator South Carolina Key Takeaways > > Rents remain stable in core space and continue to rise in noncore retail space. > > The overall market absorption was 119,395 square feet relative to last quarter. Market Conditions Market Indicators Relative to prior period VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION Q4 2017 Q1 2018* High quality, consumer-experience grocery stores are in demand, and Greenville is ahead of the curve as the market looks forward to three new grocery additions. Excitement surrounded the October 18 grand opening of the Publix in Simpsonville located at the corner of Fairview and Harrison Bridge roads. Also, a new Aldi grocery store is currently under construction on Pleasantburg Drive near Cherrydale Point, and Lowe s Foods, located in the Village Market-East Shopping Center at the corner of Sunnydale Drive and Woodruff Road, opened its doors this year. Two Harris Teeter locations, one on Augusta Road and another at North Pointe, are scheduled to open in 2018. In addition, Greenville residents are happily anticipating construction beginning on the Top Golf site located near the intersection of Pelham and Garlington roads. The three-story Garlington Park site will anchor a new mixed-use development. Greenville retail has seen fluctuations throughout this past year in vacancy and rental rates; the overall market vacancy in core shopping center space is up to 5.74% this quarter, a bit higher than the vacancy rate a year ago, which was 3.90% during the fourth quarter. However, the non-core vacancy rate has ended its cycle back to 12.24%, the same rate as a year ago. Overall, average triple net market rental rates in the Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson retail market have slightly risen to $13.64 per square foot this RENTAL RATE Note: Construction is the change in Under Construction. Summary Statistics Q4 2017 Greenville Retail Market Core Non-Core Vacancy Rate 5.74% 12.24% Change From Q4 2016 (basis points) Absorption (Thousand Square Feet) New Construction (Thousand Square Feet) Under Construction (Thousand Square Feet) -184 1 47.6 71.7-175 - 352 Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year Core Non-Core Shopping Center (Small Shop Space) $23.17 $10.97 Change From Q3 2017 0% 1.48% Urban Retail $30.00-$35.00
quarter, compared to $13.37 per square foot during the fourth quarter of 2016. Shopping Center Market Woodruff Road The Woodruff Road corridor is comprised of 2.1 million square feet of core retail space, and is the largest submarket in the region. The vacancy rate increased to 5.93% at the end of the fourth quarter, up from 5.85% during the third quarter of 2017. Average triple net shop space rental rates were $31.23 per square foot. This submarket welcomes Lowe s Foods, which opened in 2017. Clemson Boulevard Clemson Boulevard is the primary retail corridor in the Anderson market. The market vacancy rate decreased from 10.27% during the third quarter to 6.79% during the fourth quarter, and the market posted a net positive absorption of 34,000 square feet within core properties. Also, within the core submarket, the vacancy dropped to 0.61%, with only 4,850 square feet of shop space still available. The triple net average shop space asking rental rates in core space remains $18.00 per square foot, likewise, non-core rent also held steady at $11.02 per square foot to end the year. Greer The Greer submarket is one where the non-core areas are outperforming the core areas. Vacancy in the Greer core shopping centers dropped slightly from the third quarter to 13.37%. The non-core retail absorbed 13,000 square feet this quarter, causing the non-core vacancy rate to decrease by 61.15%, down from 6.59% during the third quarter of 2017 to 2.56% during the fourth quarter of 2017. The average triple net asking shop space rent in core shopping centers decreased to $14.43 per square foot, while in non-core shop space the rental rates rose from $8.15 per square foot up to $10.57 per square foot. Haywood Pleasantburg The Haywood Pleasantburg submarket includes 1.42 million square feet on the Haywood, Pleasantburg and Laurens Road corridors. The overall Haywood-Pleasantburg submarket vacancy rate dropped from 8.03% during the third quarter to 7.91% this quarter, and this submarket absorbed 1,705 square feet (net) since the third quarter of 2017. The non-core vacancy rate was lower than core space at 7.26% versus 9.5%, respectively. The overall triple net average shop space rent was $13.72 per square foot. Core shop space rental rates were a bit higher than last quarter at $17.39 per square foot, while non-core rent dropped slightly to $12.22 per square foot. West Spartanburg West Spartanburg includes retail centers along Blackstock Road, W. O. Ezell Boulevard, John B. White Sr. Boulevard and Reidville Definitions This report includes two distinct types of data. Shopping Center Retail is defined as all retail shopping centers except for regional shopping centers that are 20,000 square feet or larger, designed to accommodate at least one anchor or junior anchor tenant. This is further divided into core and non-core retail nodes. A core retail center is in an amalgamation that draws shoppers from across the region. It will have a mix of anchor, junior anchor and shop space tenants and will include a variety of food service and soft goods retailers that exist only in core retail markets. A non-core retail center will be one that is located at the edge of a submarket. It is generally designed with a single retail anchor and attracts shoppers from the surrounding neighborhoods only. Anchor space is typically 25,000 square feet or greater and is designed to accommodate a single tenant. Junior anchor space is typically 10,000 to 25,000 square feet and is designed for a single tenant. It can anchor a shopping center but is generally paired with an anchor and shop space. Shop space is typically less than 10,000 square feet and is generally attached to a center with an anchor, junior anchor or both. Urban Retail is defined as a street-oriented retail district where the primary way the tenant approaches the property is as a pedestrian. It typically has a mix of luxury retailers not found in traditional shopping centers and is found in urban locations. It is usually the street level or first level of a multistory building in a highly urbanized area. Roads. The overall West Spartanburg submarket vacancy rate dropped to 5.35% during the fourth quarter of 2017 and absorbed 46,681 square feet since last quarter. Core vacancy rates were 6.51% and non-core vacancy was only 3.47%. The average triple net core shop space rent was $17.58 per square foot, and non-core average triple net rental rates finished the year at $12.16 per square foot. Pelham Road The Pelham Road market incudes 312,000 square feet, with the core of the market centered along the east side of the interchange of Pelham Road and Interstate 85. Vacancy in the Pelham Road submarket dipped lower than the third quarter of 2017 from 17.65% down to 14.38%. The core vacancy was 1.06%, with only 2,000 square feet available in shop space. The average triple net shop space rent in both core and non-core centers remained unchanged from the third quarter at $27.00 per square foot and $14.00 per square foot, respectively. 2 South Carolina Research & Forecast Report Q4 2017 Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Retail Colliers International
Urban Retail The urban retail market is divided into five subareas: Main Street, the West End, the Village of West Greenville, Augusta Road and the Main and Stone area. Main Street is the largest of these, followed by the West End. Average triple net rental rates in the Main Street area were $33.00 per square foot at the end of the fourth quarter, and some areas in the North Main Street area are leasing for up to $36.00 per square foot. Average triple net rent in the West End was $25.00 per square foot. Recent Transactions Sales > > The Walmart located within the Shoppes of Woodruff at 1451 Woodruff Road was purchased in November for $19.3 million. > > Bi-Lo, a 45,704-square-foot grocery store located at Lyman Corners in Lyman, SC, was traded for $5.6 million in November of this year. > > Westowne Shopping Center located at 5-9 Farrs Bridge Road in Greenville traded for $5.5 million or $45.31 per square foot. Average Asking Rental Rates Core Shop Space Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q3 2017 $22.10 $23.17 $23.17 Publix 714 Fairview Road Simpsonville, SC Leases > > Pet Supermarket leased 9,460 square feet on North Pleasantburg Drive in Greenville. > > Ivy s Furniture leased a 8,450-square-foot storefront in Travelers Rest, SC. Market Forecast Retail activity in the Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson markets will continue to improve slowly over the next several quarters, with rent in core areas rising slightly. In addition, any space that becomes available in core markets will be quickly leased. There are several submarkets with extremely low vacancies and new construction or creative redevelopment may be necessary in the near future. Source: CoStar Commercial Real Estate Growth Cycle: Where the market stands and where it is going. New grocery-anchored shopping centers will quickly fill as consumers flock to the new neighborhood hubs. Developers will look for the economical submarkets to redevelop into boutiquestyle shops. Also, retail shops will look to construct or redevelop creative consumer-experience ambiance to draw customers. While retail owners approach is shifting toward providing specialized and unique atmospheres, the overall nature of retail, while changing, is not dying but thriving in a new and improved way. NEW CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE EMPLOYMENT OCCUPANCY PHASE 1: RECOVERY COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PHASE 2: EXPANSION PHASE 4: RECESSION GROWTH CYCLE PHASE 3: HYPERSUPPLY 3 South Carolina Research & Forecast Report Q4 2017 Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Retail Colliers International
Q4 2017 Retail Market Summary Statistics Greenville - Spartanburg - Anderson, SC ANCHOR SPACE (GREATER THAN 25,000 SF) JR. ANCHOR SPACE (10,000-25,000 SF) SHOP SPACE (LESS THAN 10,000 SF) SHOPPING CENTERS INVENTORY VACANCY RATE (%) VACANT ASKING RENT (NNN) VACANT ASKING RENT (NNN) VACANT ASKING RENT (NNN) BELTON - HONEA PATH Non Core 260,281 25.20% 35,000 - - - 30,600 $5.23 Belton - Honea Path Total 260,281 25.20% 35,000 - - - 30,600 $5.23 BOILING SPRINGS Non Core 610,416 36.77% 171,826 $4.00 - - 52,600 $7.30 Boiling Springs Total 610,416 36.77% 171,826 $4.00 - - 52,600 $7.30 CHERRYDALE - TR Non Core 500,171 10.00% - - - - 49,997 $15.55 Cherrydale - TR Total 500,171 10.00% - - - - 49,997 $15.55 CLEMSON BLVD Core 790,222 0.61% - - - - 4,850 $18.00 Non Core 189,409 32.58% 48,912 - - - 12,800 $11.02 Clemson Blvd Total 979,631 6.79% 48,912 - - - 17,650 $12.94 CLEMSON PENDLETON Non Core 380,437 9.61% 34,928 - - - 1,624 $17.00 Clemson Pendleton Total 380,437 9.61% 34,928 - - - 1,624 $17.00 DOWNTOWN Non Core 169,726 11.37% - - 15,000 $12.00 4,300 $12.00 Downtown Total 169,726 11.37% - - 15,000 $12.00 4,300 $12.00 DUNCAN - LYMAN Non Core 219,302 1.94% - - - - 4,260 $18.00 Duncan - Lyman Total 219,302 1.94% - - - - 4,260 $18.00 EASLEY Non Core 1,151,870 13.06% 90,216 $8.00 17,000-43,261 $12.83 Easley Total 1,151,870 13.06% 90,216 $8.00 17,000-43,261 $12.83 EAST SIDE Non Core 1,171,395 10.36% - - 47,404 $11.00 73,987 $15.47 East Side Total 1,171,395 10.36% - - 47,404 $11.00 73,987 $15.47 EAST SPARTANBURG Non Core 1,061,468 17.67% 60,682 $3.00 37,655 $4.00 89,291 $8.34 East Spartanburg Total 1,061,468 17.67% 60,682 $3.00 37,655 $4.00 89,291 $8.34 GREER Core 407,363 13.37% - - 31,980 $15.00 22,488 $14.43 Non Core 322,254 2.56% - - - - 8,240 $10.57 Greer Total 729,617 8.59% - - 31,980 $15.00 30,728 $13.39 HAYWOOD - PLEASANTBURG Core 354,902 9.85% - - 13,800-21,170 $17.39 Non Core 1,065,107 7.26% - - 36,926 $11.42 40,398 $12.22 Haywood - Pleasantburg Total 1,420,009 7.91% - - 50,726 $11.42 61,568 $13.72 HIGHWAY 81 Non Core 175,362 15.70% - - - - 11,525 $10.00 Highway 81 Total 175,362 15.70% - - - - 11,525 $10.00 INMAN - LYMAN Non Core 222,836 10.99% - - 17,572 $4.95 6,918 $11.01 Inman - Lyman Total 222,836 10.99% - - 17,572 $4.95 6,918 $11.01 4 South Carolina Research & Forecast Report Q4 2017 Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Retail Colliers International
MAULDIN Non Core 410,608 2.70% - - - - 11,083 $15.20 Mauldin Total 410,608 2.70% - - - - 11,083 $15.20 OCONEE Non Core 741,796 4.41% - - 26,000 $7.25 6,695 $12.00 Oconee Total 741,796 4.41% - - 26,000 $7.25 6,695 $12.00 PELHAM ROAD Core 189,471 1.06% - - - - 2,000 $27.00 Non Core 123,385 34.85% 38,003 - - - 4,992 $14.00 Pelham Road Total 312,856 14.38% 38,003 - - - 6,992 $19.31 PICKENS - LIBERTY Non Core 204,720 3.46% - - - - 7,080 $5.00 Pickens - Liberty Total 204,720 3.46% - - - - 7,080 $5.00 POWDERSVILLE Non Core 141,000 0.00% - - - - - - Powdersville Total 141,000 0.00% - - - - - - SIMPSONVILLE Core 405,281 3.90% - - 14,200 $15.00 1,600 $20.00 Non Core 292,064 1.64% - - - - 4,800 $12.06 Simpsonville Total 697,345 2.95% - - 14,200 $15.00 6,400 $14.05 SOUTH SIDE Non Core 159,418 2.82% - - - - 4,500 $10.00 South Side Total 159,418 2.82% - - - - 4,500 $10.00 WEST ANDERSON Non Core 854,072 17.62% - - 60,801 $5.00 89,695 $8.62 West Anderson Total 854,072 17.62% - - 60,801 $5.00 89,695 $8.62 WEST SPARTANBURG Core 939,549 6.51% - - 33,233-27,977 $17.58 Non Core 582,414 3.47% - - - - 20,200 $12.16 West Spartanburg Total 1,521,963 5.35% - - 33,233-48,177 $14.60 WHITE HORSE RD - BEREA Non Core 777,987 12.20% 44,050-22,500-28,335 $11.99 White Horse Rd - Berea Total 777,987 12.20% 44,050-22,500-28,335 $11.99 WOODRUFF MOORE Non Core 145,400 0.83% - - - - 1,200 $14.00 Woodruff Moore Total 145,400 0.83% - - - - 1,200 $14.00 WOODRUFF RD Core 2,112,629 5.93% 39,702-19,913-65,729 $31.23 Woodruff Rd Total 2,112,629 5.93% 39,702-19,913-65,729 $31.23 MARKET TOTALS Core 5,199,417 5.74% 39,702-113,126 $15.00 145,814 $23.73 Non Core 11,932,898 12.24% 561,620 $5.19 296,858 $7.70 602,095 $10.97 Total Shopping Center Market 17,132,315 10.27% 601,322 $5.19 409,984 $9.27 747,909 $13.64 URBAN RETAIL Main Street $33.00 West End $25.00 Augusta Road $30.00 North Main and Stone Ave. $29.50 Village of West Greenville $14.00 5 South Carolina Research & Forecast Report Q4 2017 Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson Retail Colliers International
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