Facts and Figures Warehouse/Logistics Rhine-Main Q3 2017
The essence of knowledge is, having it, to apply it. Quote from Confucius If you require any further information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can put you in touch with our specialists who are always happy to provide you with expert support. We look forward to hearing from you! Dr. Konrad Kanzler Head of Research +49 (0) 69-970 505-614 konrad.kanzler@nai-apollo.de Michael Weyrauch Head of Industrial Letting and Transaction +49 (0) 69-970 505-902 michael.weyrauch@nai-apollo.de Tim Weißleder Senior Consultant Industrial Letting and Transaction +49 (0) 69-970 505-157 tim.weissleder@nai-apollo.de Lenny Lemler Co-Head of Investment +49 (0) 69-970 505-174 lenny.lemler@nai-apollo.de
Market Environment Population development Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Inhabitants (06/2017): Frankfurt 736,222 / Wiesbaden 289,607 / Mainz 214,057 / Darmstadt 159,470 / Offenbach 134,547 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jun 17 Unemployment rate Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Germany Unemployment rate (09/2017): Frankfurt 5.7 % / Wiesbaden 7.4 % / Mainz 5.8 % / Darmstadt 5.9 % / Offenbach 9.4 % / Germany 5.5 % 12.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep 17 Purchasing power per capita Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 30,000 Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Germany Purchasing power per capita (2017): Frankfurt 25,532 / Wiesbaden 24,836 / Mainz 24,396 / Darmstadt 24,299 / Offenbach 20,786 / Germany 22,239 Source: Cities Frankfurt a.m., Wiesbaden, Mainz, Darmstadt, Offenbach Source: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Employment Agency The socio-economic and business data for the Rhine-Main region remained positive during the first nine months of 2017. The largest cities within the region again registered an increase in population. Compared to June 2016, the total population in the five biggest cities increased by 1.0 % to 1.534 million by mid-2017. The cities Offenbach am Main and Frankfurt am Main recorded the strongest growth rates of 1.6 % and 1.2 % respectively. The remaining cities registered increases of between 0.5 % and 0.9 %. The employment market in the Rhine-Main region also continues to perform well. With the exception of Wiesbaden, where the unemployment rate remains unchanged, unemployment fell compared to the previous year (September 2016). Mainz registered the biggest decline of 0.6 % points to 5.8 %. Frankfurt still boasts the lowest rate of unemployment at 5.7 %. Compared to the other four cities, Offenbach am Main still has the highest unemployment rate of 9.4 %, although the rate has again declined significantly with a decrease of 0.4 % points. 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Traffic situation Frankfurt/Rhein-Main Air traffic Rail traffic Highway traffic Passenger numbers at Frankfurt Airport reached peak level of 30 million in the first half of 2017 (+4.5 % compared to previous year); cargo volume increased 5.3 % to almost 1.1 million tonnes. Frankfurt central station is the most important ICE hub in Germany. More than 630 long-distance and local trains per day, 1,100 S-Bahn trains (regional trains) and 350,000 visitors and travellers. Central hub for Germany s long-distance road network with five motorway links. Frankfurter Kreuz is the busiest motorway junction in Germany with about 335,000 vehicles per day. Source: GfK GeoMarkting GmbH The most recent business survey carried out by the Hessian Chambers of Industry and Commerce in early summer 2017 continues to reflect the positive mood in the Hesse economy. The business climate index for the transport industry remains at a very high level with 120 points. Around 90 % of the companies surveyed rated both their current business situation as well as their future expectations as positive or steady. The lack of skilled workers was cited as the biggest obstacle to their future development, followed by high fuel prices.
Market Data Take-up (lettings and owner occupation) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Take-up (in thousend sqm) 349 sqm 582 sqm 511 sqm 569 sqm Averag e take-up 10 years (520,000 sqm) 753 sqm 629 sqm 635 sqm 583 sqm 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1-Q3 2017 Take-up according to unit size Q1-Q3 2017 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Total: 583,000 sqm 53 Spaces 50,000 sqm 28 Spaces 63,000 sqm 12 Spaces 51,000 sqm 11 Spaces 88,000 sqm 18 Spaces 331,000 sqm < 1,500 1,501-3,000 3,001-5,000 5,001-10,000 > 10,000 Take-up according to industry Q1-Q3 2017 Transport, Warehouse & Logistics Trade Manufacturing Others & n/a Definition market area 10.7 % 32.9 % 11.4 % 45.0 % NAI apollo defines the Frankfurt/Rhine-Main market area for logistics and warehouses as the relevant available logistics and warehouse space between the cities of Butzbach in the north and Worms in the south, as well as between Bingen in the west and Aschaffenburg in the east. The City of Frankfurt am Main forms the central point of the sub-market described. In the period from July to September 2017, the market for warehouse and logistics space in the Rhine-Main region performed broadly in line with the previous quarter. Space take-up by tenants and owner-occupiers amounted to about 214,000 sqm in the last three months and represents one of the best quarterly results since we first started to collect data. Total space take-up in the first nine months of 2017 amounted to about 583,000 sqm some 68,000 sqm more than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The strong take-up of space in the third quarter of 2017 resulted from the high proportion of deals for over 10,000 sqm of space. The take-up level in this segment amounted to more than 125,000 sqm in the last three months, accounting for more than half of the total quarterly volume. The Gorilla Sports deal for 35,000 sqm in a project development on the Südzucker site in Groß-Gerau represented the biggest contract signing during the recent quarter, as well as the second-largest deal in terms of space in the year to date. In terms of the different types of deals, rentals in existing buildings increased significantly in the third quarter and accounted for 63.3 % of space take-up. In the year to date, this segment increased its share to 48.1 % (280,000 sqm) of the volume, whereby lettings in existing properties achieved the highest space take-up and were in line with previous years (2016: 45.1 % share / 2015: 54.4 % share). Lettings in project developments fell by 12.4 % points compared to the first half of 2017 and accounted for a 39.8 % share (232,000 sqm) of the volume. However, the overall percentage is much higher than in previous years (2016: 27.9 % share / 2015: 27.0 % share). Purchases and projects by owner-occupiers accounted for 10.5 % and 1.6 % of the volume respectively in the first three quarters of 2017.
Market Data Development of rents Frankfurt am Main 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Minimum rent (in /sqm) Prime rent (i n /sqm) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q3 2017 Selection of large current project developments 2017 Kelsterbach - 50,000 sqm Construction of the M-Port³ logistics park by MP Holding and Fraport AG with the start of the first speculative construction phase for 25,000 sqm. The plan is to build a total warehouse space of around 50,000 sqm. Gernsheim - 46,000 sqm Construction by AXXUS Capital and Gaul Planung & Finanzierung of a trimodal logistics park with 46,000 sqm of warehouse space on the former site of the van Baerle chemicals plant. Trebur - 43,000 sqm Construction of a 43,000-sqm distribution hall for a contract logistics provider in the industrial park of Zech Group-owned Deutsche Logistik Holding (DLH) on the former Mitsubishi site. Selection of large completed developments 2017 Biblis - 85,000 sqm Completion of the new distribution centre by Dietz AG that is let to Dutch non-food discounter Action. Ginsheim-Gustavsburg - 32,000 sqm Construction of VGP-Park in Ginsheim-Gustavsburg, with full occupancy achieved before completion. Erlensee - 28,000 sqm Completion of a logistics warehouse for Dachser on the former Langendiebach airbase by Panattoni Europe in the immediate vicinity of a Dachser food distribution centre. Outlook next 12 months Stock Vacancy Take-up Prime rent Minimum rent The southwest market area remained the most important sub-market with the highest take-up level, primarily due to a high number of large contract signings. At around 290,000 sqm, around half of the market activity in the last three quarters took place in this area. The east market area was next in line with a 13.1 % share and around 76,000 sqm. Companies from the transport, storage and logistics industry continue to represent the biggest users and accounted for space take-up of about 262,000 sqm in the period from January to September in 2017. This corresponds to a 45.0 % share, and indicates a loss of 6.2 % points compared to end-june. In contrast, retail companies registered the biggest growth on the demand side in the last three months. Compared to the first half of the year, this group increased its take-up almost threefold to 192,000 sqm (Q1-Q3 2017) or a 32.9 % share (H1 2017: 65,000 sqm). Industrial companies accounted for a 10.7 % share. Based on the positive market development, we have upgraded the forecast from the previous quarter. Market activity is expected to remain extremely buoyant in the final quarter of the year. The total volume after just nine months is only 50,000 sqm below the entire annual volume recorded in the previous year. For this reason, we expect space take-up in 2017 to attain the record level of 2014. Take-up reached more than 750,000 sqm in 2014. Largescale rental opportunities in newly constructed premises are currently available in the Dietz AG development in Raunheim, for example, or in the M Port³ construction project on the Mönchhof site. Other possibilities also include the SEGRO project developments in Bischofsheim and Mörfelden-Walldorf. Furthermore, up to 95,000 sqm is being developed in the Deutsche Logistik Holding industrial park in Trebur, of which 43,000 sqm was prelet in the second quarter.
Submarkets Submarkets and available logistics stock Q3 2017 North-East 3.50 5.00 /sqm North-West 3.50 5.00 /sqm Frankfurt 3.00 6.30 /sqm South-West 3.20 6.95 /sqm East 3.00 5.00 /sqm South-East 3.50 6.30 /sqm Available logistics stock > 5,000 sqm Q3 2017 Location Alzenau Frankfurt Friedberg Friedrichsdorf Gernsheim Kelsterbach Langen Pfungstadt Raunheim Weiterstadt Wiesbaden Local rent range ( /sqm) approx. 4.00-4.50 approx. 3.00-6.30 approx. 3.50-4.50 approx. 3.50-4.50 approx. 3.30-4.50 approx. 5.30-6.95 approx. 4.50-5.50 approx. 3.50-4.50 approx. 4.80-6.00 approx. 4.50-5.75 approx. 4.20-4.60 Wiesbaden/Mainz 3.00 5.60 /sqm
Top 5 Key Facts Logistics strongholds Rental 18,6 price range Q3 2017 ( /sqm) Existing stock New construction Berlin 2.50-4.70 4.50-6.40 Dusseldorf 3.00-4.80 4.50-6.20 Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 3.00-5.50 5.00-6.95 Hamburg 3.70-5.20 4.50-5.70 Munich 4.70-6.20 5.80-8.50 Prime yields Q3 2017 Prime office yields Prime retail yields Prime logistics yields Berlin 3.10 % 3.25 % 4.70 % Dusseldorf 3.80 % 3.40 % 4.70 % Frankfurt a. M. 3.45 % 3.45 % 4.70 % Hamburg 3.20 % 3.30 % 4.70 % Munich 3.10 % 2.95 % 4.65 % Total Ø = 3.35 % Ø = 3.25 % Ø = 4.70 % Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Top take-up Q1-Q3 2017 Property + Location Tenant / owner occupier Utility area in sqm Trebur Contract Logistics Provider approx. 43,000 Groß-Gerau Gorilla Sports approx. 35,000 Bürstadt Rossmann approx. 33,000 Florstadt DHL approx. 27,700 Bingen Hensel Logistik GmbH approx. 23,000 Top investments Q1-Q3 2017 Property + Location Purchaser Utility area in sqm Ostheimer Weg / Babenhausen Blackstone / M7 Real Estate approx. 148,000 Distribution centre / Worms Garbe Logistik Immobilien Fonds Plus approx. 54,000 TST Logistics property / Worms European Logistics Fund (TH Real Estate) approx. 50,000 Otzberg Reinhard-Müller-Ring / Otzberg China Investment Corporation (part of logistics portfolio) approx. 44,700 Logistics centre / Bodenheim AXA IM - Real Assets approx. 41,100 Source: Source: NAI NAI apollo apollo
ONE PARTNER. ALL SERVICES. ALL ASSET CLASSES: OFFICE RETAIL LOGISTICS RESIDENTIAL ASSET MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING BUILDING MANAGEMENT PROJECT DEVELOPMENT VALUATION AND RESEARCH CORPORATE FINANCE ADVISORY CORPORATE REAL ESTATE SERVICES PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SALES LETTINGS YOUR PROPERTY PARTNER WE DISTINGUISH OURSELVES BY OWNER-MANAGED PARTNER ACTIVE IN DAY-TO-DAY BUSINESS MORE THAN 25 YEARS OF MARKET EXPERIENCE INDEPENDENT - INNOVATIVE - SOLUTION-ORIENTED LOCAL - NATIONAL - TOP NETWORK Copyright NAI apollo, 2017. This report is for information purposes only. It was compiled with the utmost care and is based on information from sources that we regard as being reliable, but for which we assume no liability for their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Estimates, figures and forecasts contained in this document are for guidance only. This report does not pursue the aim of promoting the purchase or sale of a particular financial investment and thus should not be considered as such an offer. The reader of this report must make his or her own independent decisions in regards to correctness and completeness. NAI apollo assumes no liability for direct or indirect damage that arises through inaccuracies, omissions or errors in this report. We reserve the right to make changes and/or additions to the information contained therein at any time. Neither the report nor parts thereof may be published, reproduced or passed on without the written consent of NAI apollo. FLEXIBLE - CUSTOMER-FOCUSED - COMPETENT