REALTOR.COM MARKET OUTLOOK

REALTOR.COM MARKET OUTLOOK Realtor.com Economics January 2019 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute.

AGENDA Economic and housing data and insights from realtor.com National Forecast How well did we predict 2018? Looking forward to 2019 U.S. Economic Trends GDP, Jobs U.S. Housing Trends Ownership Up, EHS Struggle Supply: Inventory, Prices, Affordability Demand: Aging Millennials, Rents How Shoppers React How realtor.com data highlights U.S. trends & Local Data Cross Market Demand Generational Shopping Rochester Inventory, Sales & Hot Markets 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 2

NATIONAL FORECAST

2018 FORECAST Key economic and housing metrics from realtor.com Variable 2018 Forecast Year to Date Actual Tracking So Far? Existing Home Sales 3.2% -2.9% Lower Existing Home Prices 2.5% 4.7% Higher New Home Sales 7% 2.7% Lower Housing Starts 3% 5% Higher SF Housing Starts 7% 3% Lower Mortgage Rates 4.6% 4.6% As Expected 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 4

2018 INVENTORY PROJECTION Based on this pattern, realtor.com projects U.S. year-over-year inventory growth to tick up into positive territory by fall 2018, for the first time since 2015 https://www.realtor.com/research/2018-national-housing-forecast/ 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 5

2018 INVENTORY TRENDS Month Inventory Y/Y June -4.3% July -3.7% August -1.9% September -0.0% October +1.6% November +3.9% December +5.3% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 6

2019 FORECAST Key economic and housing metrics from NAR and realtor.com National Association of REALTORS Macro Forecast: Real GDP grows 1.9% in 2019 (vs. 3.1% in 2018, 2.2% in 2017) Nonfarm payroll employment grows 1.0% in 2019 (vs. 1.6% in 2018, 1.6% in 2017) Unemployment rises to 4.1% in 2019 (vs to 3.9% in 2018, 4.4% in 2017) realtor.com 2019 Housing Forecast: Existing home prices appreciate 2.2% Existing home sales down 2.0% Single family housing starts increase 8% 30-year fixed conforming rate averages 5.3% Homeownership rate increases to 64.6% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 7

U.S. ECONOMIC TRENDS

ECONOMIC GROWTH IS STRONG Consumption drives strong growth, Investment improves Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Realtor.com Analysis 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 9

JOB CREATION GENERALLY SLOWING 220,000 monthly average in past 12 months, Dec saw 312,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 10

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Plans to purchase a home dip in December Source: The Conference Board, Moody s Analytics 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 11

U.S. HOUSING TRENDS

2018 MOST COMPETITIVE SEASON ON RECORD What are the hallmarks and drivers of the most competitive season? Supply: Not Keeping Pace Inventory - at record lows and continuing to decline Prices - at record highs and still increasing Affordability - least affordable since 2008/09, but more affordable than most of early 2000s and 1990s Demand: More Buyers in the Market Aging Millennials want to own peak millennial coming to the housing market in 2020 Rents - rising in 73% of counties Existing Home Sales Struggle to Break Out 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 13

2019 MARKET SHIFTS Supply comes back for some; affordability challenge reduces buyer competition Supply: Not Keeping Pace Coming back in some markets/price-levels Inventory - at record lows and continuing to decline (now up 5.3% in Dec) Prices - at record highs and still increasing (up 7.1% in Dec) Affordability - least affordable since 2008/09, but more affordable than most of early 2000s and 1990s Demand: More Buyers in the Market Aging Millennials want to own peak millennial coming to the housing market in 2020 Rents - rising in 73% of counties Existing Home Sales Struggle to Break Out 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 14

OWNERSHIP RECOVERING 64.4% home ownership rate off low; 1.4 M households last 4 quarters Source: Census Bureau 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 15

FOUR KEY HOUSING TRENDS IN 2019 1. Modest inventory gains continue; high-end inventory growth spreads 2. Soft home sales continue 3. Millennials purchase the most homes 4. Tax plan still a wild card for housing 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 16

SUPPLY SIDE

MODEST INVENTORY GAINS CONTINUE 2018 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 18

INVENTORY UP Inventory Increased 5% Y/Y in December Source: Realtor.com 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 19

HIGH-COST MARKETS LEAD INVENTORY GAINS 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 20

PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE Median List Price at $289,000, Up 7.1% Y/Y in December Source: Realtor.com 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 21

LISTING PRICES UP 7.1% Y/Y IN DEC Median list price increases are widespread December 2018 Source: Realtor.com 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 22

INVENTORY DIVERGENCE 4.3 months supply for existing and 7.4 months for new Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 23

CRISIS SHIFTED NEW HOME MARKET Average spread 2000-2008: 12%; 2009-2018: 33% Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 24

SOFT HOME SALES CONTINUE 2018 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 25

NEW & EXISTING SALES DOWN Sales down 5.1% for existing and 12.0% for new Y/Y in October Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 26

HOUSING STARTS DOWN Down 3.6% Y/Y with SF down 13.1% and MF up 21.7% in November Source: Commerce Department 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 27

AFFORDABLE HOME SHORTAGE 290,000 fewer starter homes (<$200k) now vs December 2015 Source: realtor.com 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 28

DEMAND DRIVERS

MILLENNIALS PURCHASE THE MOST HOMES 2018 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 30

MILLENNIALS: 45% OF MORTGAGE BUYERS 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 31

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 Thousands DEMOGRAPHICS SET THE TABLE When viewed by age, importance of Millennials becomes clearer US Population by Age, End of 2016 5,000 4,500 Z 65 million Millennial 88 million X 61 million Boomer 78 million 29 million 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Realtor.com Analysis of US Census Bureau Population Estimates (2016) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 32

HISTORIC AFFORDABILITY DECLINING 30-year conforming rate averaged 4.6% in past 12 months Source: Moody s Analytics, Freddie Mac, and National Association of REALTORS 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 33

MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP VARIES Strong correlation with affordable markets Source: Realtor.com Analysis of Nielsen Demographics PopFacts 2018 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 34

CHEAPER TO BUY IN 39% OF COUNTIES Simple monthly cost analysis favors renting now in more places December 2018 Source: Realtor.com Analysis of HUD Median Rents, Nielsen Pop-Facts Demographics and Realtor.com Data 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 35

RENTS RISING Y/Y IN 73% OF COUNTIES Rent increases adding to demand for buying 2018 Source: Realtor.com Analysis of HUD Median Market Rents 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 36

LIFE DRIVES HOUSING DEMAND Everyone s tired of waiting and Millennials are building families Top 10 Buying Triggers all 25-34 tired of current home favorable home prices change of family circumstance/composition getting married/moving in with partner looking for a safer neighhorhood increase in family size relocated to a new city planning an increase to family size 13% desire to live closer to good schools increase in income change of job/job location 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: realtor.com Active Home Shopper Survey, September 2016 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 37

MILLENNIALS LEADING SALES GROWTH Sales with Millennial names increased by 5.3% in 2018 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 38

WOMEN LEADING SALES GROWTH Female names account for 7 of 10 fastest growing names on real estate deeds 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 39

HISPANIC BUYERS GAINING INFLUENCE Three names within the top 20: Julio, Jesus, Andres 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 40

CURRENT CONDITIONS & LOCAL DATA

HOTTEST MARKETS West Coast, Rocky Mountains, and Midwest are Hottest 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 42

CROSS MARKET DEMAND INCOMING VIEWS Rochester Draws Buyers From Buffalo and NYC (Q4 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 43

CROSS MARKET DEMAND OUTGOING VIEWS Rochester Buyers Looking Toward Buffalo (Q4 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 44

CROSS MARKET DEMAND INCOMING VIEWS Rochester Draws Buyers From Boston (Q4 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 45

CROSS MARKET DEMAND OUTGOING VIEWS Rochester Buyers Looking Toward Florida (Q4 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 46

ROCHESTER DRAWS MIX OF YOUNGER BUYERS Age Group Interest Relative to National Average 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 47

HOME OWNERSHIP

HOME OWNERSHIP IN NEW YORK Overall Ownership Rate in Region is 53% vs 65% Nationally Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts 2018 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 49

HOME OWNERSHIP IN ROCHESTER Overall Ownership Rate in Region is 66% vs 65% Nationally Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts 2018 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 50

MILLENNIAL HOME OWNERSHIP IN NEW YORK Overall Ownership Rate in Region is 28% vs 41% Nationally Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts 2018 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 51

MILLENNIAL HOME OWNERSHIP IN ROCHESTER Overall Ownership Rate in Region is 43% vs 41% Nationally Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts 2018 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 52

LISTING PRICES & PRICE GROWTH

LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER AREA Ontario County Has Highest Median List Price at $275,000 (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 54

LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER AREA Monroe County Growing Fastest at 9% (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 55

LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER AREA Pittsford (14534) is Most Expensive Zip Code (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 56

LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER Most Expensive Zip Codes in Rochester Area (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Median List Price Median List Price Y/Y 1 14534 Pittsford, NY $437,500-1% 2 14564 Victor, NY $379,450 5% 3 14424 Canandaigua, NY $299,950 0% 4 14450 Fairport, NY $299,950-5% 5 14580 Webster, NY $297,050 11% 6 14559 Spencerport, NY $294,950 23% 7 14526 Penfield, NY $267,550 2% 8 14586 West Henrietta, NY $264,295 6% 9 14618 Rochester, NY $259,950-19% 10 14425 Farmington, NY $240,040 2% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 57

LISTING PRICE GROWTH IN ROCHESTER AREA 71% of Zips Experienced Price Growth Y/Y (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 58

LISTING PRICES IN ROCHESTER Fastest Growing Zip Codes in Rochester Area (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Median List Price Y/Y Median List Price 1 14559 Spencerport, NY 23% $294,950 2 14606 Rochester, NY 20% $104,950 3 14617 Rochester, NY 17% $139,950 4 14616 Rochester, NY 15% $114,950 5 14624 Rochester, NY 13% $139,950 6 14580 Webster, NY 11% $297,050 7 14621 Rochester, NY 8% $39,950 8 14468 Hilton, NY 7% $234,500 9 14586 West Henrietta, NY 6% $264,295 10 14564 Victor, NY 5% $379,450 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 59

ACTIVE INVENTORY

ACTIVE INVENTORY TREND IN ROCHESTER Inventory Levels in the Last 12 Months (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 61

ACTIVE INVENTORY TREND IN ROCHESTER Inventory Declines Decelerating (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 62

ACTIVE INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER AREA Single Family and Condo Active Listings (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 63

ACTIVE INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER Single Family and Condo Active Listings (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 64

ACTIVE INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER Most Active Zip Codes in Rochester Area (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Active Listings Active Listings Y/Y 1 14424 Canandaigua, NY 144-9% 2 14580 Webster, NY 130 35% 3 14564 Victor, NY 108 17% 4 14534 Pittsford, NY 99-10% 5 14450 Fairport, NY 98 27% 6 14468 Hilton, NY 72-17% 7 14609 Rochester, NY 62 3% 8 14612 Rochester, NY 60-21% 9 14626 Rochester, NY 59-13% 10 14617 Rochester, NY 52-7% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 65

LISTING CHANGE IN ROCHESTER Listings Still Declining in Some Zip Codes in Rochester Area (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Active Listings Y/Y Active Listings 1 14616 Rochester, NY -41% 44 2 14606 Rochester, NY -28% 41 3 14618 Rochester, NY -23% 31 4 14612 Rochester, NY -21% 60 5 14624 Rochester, NY -21% 50 6 14468 Hilton, NY -17% 72 7 14626 Rochester, NY -13% 59 8 14534 Pittsford, NY -10% 99 9 14424 Canandaigua, NY -9% 144 10 14617 Rochester, NY -7% 52 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 66

AGE OF INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER Median age of inventory in Monroe County is 40 days (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 67

AGE OF INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER Age of Inventory Leveling Off and Slowing Slightly in Monroe County (Dec 2018) 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 68

AGE OF INVENTORY IN ROCHESTER Age of inventory breakdown by zip code (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Median Age Median Age (days) Y/Y 1 14616 Rochester, NY 40-14% 2 14526 Penfield, NY 45 0% 3 14609 Rochester, NY 47 2% 4 14606 Rochester, NY 48-33% 5 14425 Farmington, NY 51 9% 6 14624 Rochester, NY 52 26% 7 14420 Brockport, NY 52 8% 8 14617 Rochester, NY 52 16% 9 14618 Rochester, NY 52-12% 10 14626 Rochester, NY 56 9% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 69

AGE OF INVENTORY Y/Y IN ROCHESTER Age of inventory breakdown by zip code (Dec 2018) Rank Zip Code Zip Name Median Age Median Age (days) Y/Y 1 14606 Rochester, NY 48-33% 2 14621 Rochester, NY 67-19% 3 14580 Webster, NY 61-16% 4 14616 Rochester, NY 40-14% 5 14618 Rochester, NY 52-12% 6 14622 Rochester, NY 58-9% 7 14526 Penfield, NY 45 0% 8 14564 Victor, NY 60 0% 9 14609 Rochester, NY 47 2% 10 14420 Brockport, NY 52 8% 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 70

HOTTEST COUNTIES IN ROCHESTER AREA Monroe County Among Top Performing Counties in U.S. (Q4 2018) Source: Realtor.com 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 71

HOTTEST ZIP CODES IN ROCHESTER AREA Top 10 Performing Zip Codes (Q4 2018) Source: Realtor.com 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 72

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2018-2023 72% of Zips Seeing Growth Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts 2018 2019 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 73

Economic Research realtor.com @RDC_Economics https://www.youtube.com/realtordotcom Access market data, research, and presentations at realtor.com/research 2018 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute. 74

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