Research & Forecast Report NASHVILLE INDUSTRIAL 1st Quarter Solid Fundamentals Keep Nashville Industrial Market Competitive in 1Q 1Q Summary >> Nashville s industrial vacancy rate increased slightly in the first quarter to 4.5% up 10 basis points from 4Q, keeping occupancy over 95% for the fourth consecutive quarter. >> The overall industrial rental rate has trended steadily upward since Q3 2014. Average industrial rent reached $5.78 per square foot in, a post-recession high in Nashville s industrial market. >> Nashville experienced 415,693 square feet in occupancies so far in, representing the twelfth consecutive quarter of positive absorption. SUMMARY STATISTICS Q4 Vacancy Rate 3.5% 4.4% 4.5% Absorption 1.1M 1.7M 415,693 202,700 408,200 240,000 4.9M 2.1M 3.7M 1Q Nashville Industrial Market New Supply Under Construction ASKING RENTS 150 130 110 90 Feb-18 Nov-17 Aug-17 Feb-17 May-17 Nov-16 Aug-16 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-15 Aug-15 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-14 May-14 50 Aug-13 70 Nov-13 Nashville experienced 415,693 square feet in occupancies so far in, representing the twelfth consecutive quarter of positive absorption. The average quoted rental rate for industrial product in Nashville is at an overall high as a result of consistent positive absorption and continuous diminishing vacancies. INDUSTRIAL-USING EMPLOYMENT Feb-13 s historically high rental rates, record-breaking deliveries, and solid investor interest have collectively paved the way for an impressive first quarter of. Leasing activity totaled over 2M square feet during, keeping pace with quarterly leasing momentum over the last 3-5 years. Development is underway on 3.7M square feet of industrial space the majority of which is speculative development and rental rates saw a record increase of 16% over the last year. $11.80 $4.97 $7.05 Flex Bulk Small/Mid-Range May-13 In March, Forbes ranked Nashville the nation s 7th-fastest growing city in based on population, employment, economic output and wages. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, average non-farm employment in the metro area in grew by 3.2%, representing the net addition of 30,100 jobs. From February to February, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector had a 3% gain with 5,500 jobs added. Reflecting national trends, losses are indicated in this time frame for the manufacturing sector, with negative 1,600 jobs or -1.9%. Nonetheless, Nashville s robust economy, business affordability, and location advantages will continue to lend considerable strength to its industrial real estate market. $5.78 Overall Asking Rate Total Employment (Thousands) Nashville Economy Per Square Foot Per Year
Vacancy & Availability RENTAL RATES SNAPSHOT > > Nashville s industrial vacancy rate increased slightly in the first quarter to 4.5% up 10 basis points from the fourth quarter, keeping occupancy over 95% for the fourth consecutive quarter. > > Nashville s industrial market will likely see a closer balance of absorption and deliveries this year, as vacancy may increase a small degree due to the amount of speculative construction that is set to deliver in the next 12 months. EAST $5.85 IBD NORTH $4.86 SOUTHEAST $4.93 SOUTHWEST WEST $5.81 MARKET $5.68 $9.00 $11.70 > > The demand for flex product in the Nashville market remains strong, as market-wide vacancy decreased by 80 basis points at the close of. The largest difference occurred in the East submarket with 4.9% vacancy, down from 7.4% at Q4. The Southeast submarket also experienced a decrease in flex vacancy, down 170 basis points since Q4. CLASS A DIST/WAREHOUSE MANUFACTURING $4.16 FLEX $5.20 $11.80 VACANCY SNAPSHOT RENTAL RATES BY TYPE $12 8% 2.0% 4.9% 5.0% $10 7% Small/ Mid-Range Bulk Flex Rental Rate $8 $6 6% 5% Vacancy Rate $4 Rental Rates > > The overall industrial rental rate has trended steadily upward since Q3 2014, and skyrocketed over the last 12 months by 16%. Average industrial rent reached $5.78 per square foot in, a post-recession high in Nashville s industrial market. $2 $0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Small/Mid-Range Bulk Flex Market Vacancy 4% 3% > > The market-wide rate for flex increased the most in the North submarket this past quarter, exceeding an average of $11.00 per square foot for the first time. The highest rent for a property in this size range is in the Southwest submarket at $12.43 per square foot. The average flex rate also increased in the East and Southeast submarkets. ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES > > The projected increased vacancy and amount of industrial space available throughout the market indicate that rental rates may be starting to peak in Middle Tennessee. However, the elevated rates at the end of suggest that there may be additional room for growth. 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 12% 10% Absorption & Leasing Activity Square Feet 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 10-year avg. absorption 8% Vacancy Rate > > The industrial market experienced a solid first quarter with 415,693 square feet absorbed. This is the market s lowest quarterly absorption since Q3. > > Notable leases signed this quarter representing a combined 1.75M square feet of space, included CEVA Logistics (1.0M SF), XPO (280,000 SF) and Worldwide Technology (71,500 SF) in the East submarket, and Interline Brands (317,085 SF) and Second Harvest Food Bank (86,210 SF) in the Southeast submarket. 1,000,000 0-1,000,000-2,000,000-3,000,000-4,000,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy 6% 4% 2% > > Despite the comparatively lower absorption of 1Q, the Nashville market is expected to experience another strong year of absorption and leasing throughout the remainder of. 2 : Nashville Research & Forecast Report 1Q Industrial Colliers International
NOTABLE LEASING ACTIVITY PROPERTY TENANT LEASE TYPE SIZE SF SUBMARKET Beckwith - 12014 Volunteer Boulevard CEVA Logistics Renewal 400,000 East 50 Teledyne Place Interline Brands Renewal 317,085 Southeast Commerce Farms V XPO New 279,199 East 12000 Volunteer Boulevard CEVA Logistics Renewal 247,000 East Beckwith 9 CEVA Logistics New 399,000 East 1800 Midway Lane Second Harvest Food Bank New 86,210 Southeast 1501 Corporate Place Carlex Glass Renewal 72,151 Southeast Eastgate Distribution Center III Worldwide Technology New 71,500 East 323 Mason Road Wayfair New 66,493 Southeast West Nashville Distribution Center Appalachian Insulation Supply of TN, LLC New 60,000 West Space Park North, Building V AF Outlets New 40,000 North Cowan Industrial Park Gallagher Staging Nashville New 38,597 IBD *Bold text indicates a Colliers transaction. NOTABLE INVESTMENT ACTIVITY PROPERTY BUYER TOTAL SF SALE PRICE PRICE/SF SUBMARKET Nutro Products - 920 Arctic Drive Royal Canin USA Inc 241,458 $19,641,283 $81 East Empire Distributors of Tennessee Inc McLane Foodservice 136,800 $10,200,000 $75 West 660 Massman Drive Glen Una Properties 182,795 $9,950,000 $54 East 521 Old Salem Road Experience Christian Community 91,185 $7,500,000 $82 Southeast RJ Young - 2919 Sidco Dr ADE 787 LLC 59,850 $7,000,000 $117 Southwest 4717 Centennial Boulevard Darek Bell 103,630 $6,800,000 $66 West 556 Metroplex Drive State Street Group 43,026 $4,124,999 $96 Southeast 163 Business Park Drive James Wilks; Rosa Wilks 36,820 $3,400,000 $92 Southeast *Bold text indicates a Colliers transaction. DEFINITIONS Colliers Inventory All industrial and flex properties of more than 10,000 SF including owner-occupied. Research subject to revisions due to discrepancies in past reporting. WEST 155 Flex A type of building designed to be versatile, which may be used in combination with office R&D, quasi-retail sales, and industrial warehouse and distribution uses. IBD NORTH 70 Leasing Activity The square footage that is committed to and signed for under a lease obligation in each quarter, including direct leases, subleases, renewals of existing leases, and preleasing activity for buildings under construction or planned. EAST Absorption (Net) The net change in occupied space between the current quarter and the previous quarter, calculated by summing all the positive changes and subtracting all the negative changes. 41 Vacancy Rate Percentage rate of the total amount of vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. 100 SOUTHWEST SOUTHEAST Build-To-Suit Property that can be leased or owned by a tenant that was developed specifically for them. Triple Net Rent (NNN) Includes rent payable to the landlord and does not include additional expenses such as taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial and utilities. All industrial and high-tech/r&d rents in this report are quoted on an annual, triple net per square foot basis in U.S. dollars. New Construction Includes completed speculative and buildto-suit construction. New construction quoted on a net basis after any demolitions or conversions. 3 : Nashville Research & Forecast Report 1Q Industrial Colliers International
Investment Activity CUMULATIVE MONTHLY INVESTMENT VOLUME Nashville experienced a 5-year record of industrial development volume in, exceeding $800 million in transactions. Out-of-town investment remains a dominant theme in Middle Tennessee, as a majority of the largest transactions over the last two years were executed by buyers outside of Middle Tennessee. Investors from New York, Chicago, Singapore, and San Francisco acquired over $666.65 million in this time frame. > > s total of $80 million has kept pace with the first quarters of and 2014. The largest purchase was Nutro Products at 920 Arctic Circle in the East Submarket by Royal Canin USA. The 241,458 square-foot property sold for $19,641,283 at $81 per square foot. Cumulative Monthly Volume ($ mil) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 J F M A M J J A S O N 2014 D Notable Development Rising rental rates and high occupancy continued to fuel construction and development throughout the market during the first quarter. A total of 3.71 million square feet is under construction across the region, scheduled for completion by the end of. 10 million square feet are at the planned/proposed stage across the region. 63% of this activity is in the East and Southeast submarkets. > > One of the largest projects in the region is Cedar Farms in the East submarket. Phase I of this Class A bulk development totals 902,000 square feet. The project is a partnership between Al. Neyer and New York Life and the targeted completion is late. NASHVILLE MARKET NEW DELIVERIES Square Feet 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 12.0 MILLION SF PLANNED > > Speculative construction continues on Park 840 East a 558,600-square foot development in Lebanon on track to deliver in 3Q. 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Deliveries 2011 2012 2013 2014 10-Year Average Deliveries > > A notable development in the Southeast submarket is Airport Business Park in Smyrna. This 600,000-square foot project is set for delivery next quarter. AIRPORT BUSINESS PARK RENDERING > > Airport Logistics Park, a master-planned development with 830,000 square feet under construction, is set for delivery in 4Q in the Southeast submarket. DEVELOPMENT SNAPSHOT CEDAR FARMS 3.7M SF Under Construction Southeast East 10.04M SF Proposed East North Southeast 4 : Nashville Research & Forecast Report 1Q Industrial Colliers International
1Q Submarket Comparison MARKET BUILDINGS TOTAL INVENTORY (SF) DIRECT VACANT (SF) SUBLEASE VACANT (SF) TOTAL VACANCY RATE 1Q NET ABSORPTION AVERAGE ASKING RENTAL RATE (PSF) EAST Small/Mid-Range 223 5,176,029 21,040 0 0.4% 27,336 $7.54 Bulk 144 36,635,384 2,107,845 0 5.8% 73,269 $4.95 Flex 55 1,888,990 54190 38173 4.9% 47,627 $11.23 East Total 422 43,700,403 2,183,075 38173 5.1% 148,232 $5.85 IBD Small/Mid-Range 313 6,560,572 144,662 0 2.2% 40,186 $9.97 Bulk 74 9,039,431 376,825 0 4.2% 20,000 $4.45 Flex 44 1,742,036 47,367 5217 3.0% -18,901 $14.96 IBD Total 431 17,342,039 568,854 5,217 3.3% 41,285 $9.00 NORTH Small/Mid-Range 360 7,878,543 190,371 0 2.4% 11,669 $5.59 Bulk 246 39,336,108 2,195,850 0 5.6% 85,139 $3.99 Flex 77 3,398,623 123,846 0 3.6% -28,914 $11.66 North Total 683 50,613,274 2,510,067 0 5.0% 67,894 $4.86 SOUTHEAST Small/Mid-Range 218 4,894,824 79,095 0 1.6% 4,000 $5.22 Bulk 237 54,148,709 1,861,737 589,187 4.5% 52,658 $4.16 Flex 94 4,323,673 340,343 21,426 8.4% 76,276 $9.03 Southeast Total 549 63,367,206 2,281,175 610,613 4.6% 132,934 $4.93 SOUTHWEST Small/Mid-Range 141 3,141,240 102,062 0 3.2% -31,662 $8.32 Bulk 77 8,254,874 387,818 0 4.7% 30,477 $7.16 Flex 61 3,494,035 123,434 1,000 3.6% 4,183 $18.01 Southwest Total 279 14,890,149 613,314 1,000 4.1% 2,998 $11.70 WEST Small/Mid-Range 104 2,220,947 56,943 0 2.6% 19,600 $11.95 Bulk 38 7,610,621 95,000 0 1.2% -20,000 $3.80 Flex 12 342,970 5,000 0 1.5% 22,750 $7.10 West Total 154 10,174,538 156,943 0 1.5% 22,350 $5.81 MARKET Small/Mid-Range 1,359 29,872,155 594,173 0 2.0% 71,129 $7.05 Bulk 816 155,025,127 7,025,075 589,187 4.9% 241,543 $4.97 Flex 343 15,190,327 694,180 65,816 5.0% 103,021 $11.80 MARKET TOTAL 2,518 200,087,609 8,313,428 655,003 4.5% 415,693 $5.78 5 : Nashville Research & Forecast Report 1Q Industrial Colliers International
554 offices in 66 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 34 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 231 EMEA: 112 MARKET CONTACT: Janet Miller CEDC FM CEO & Market Leader +1 615 850 2704 janet.miller@colliers.com REGIONAL AUTHOR: Katie Barton CPRC Director of Research +1 615 850 2758 katie.barton@colliers.com Colliers International Nashville 615 3rd Avenue South, Suite 500 Nashville, TN 37210 +1 615 850 2700 www.colliers.com/nashville $2.5 billion in annual revenue 2 billion square feet under management 16,000 professionals and staff About Colliers International Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with more than 16,300 professionals operating out of 554 offices in 66 countries. Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. Colliers International has been recognized and ranked by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing 100 for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.