MARKET expectations Current Conditions The Office Market Buenos Aires remained Argentina s largest office market with nearly 18.2 million square feet of total stock, including 11.4 million square feet of rentable space, in the first quarter of 2016. The vacancy rate during the first quarter fell to 5.4, as more than 107,639 square feet was occupied. The submarket where the most space was absorbed during the quarter was 9 de Julio, where 76,423 square feet was occupied in the Belgrano Office Building, as well as 25,833 square feet in the Altman Eco Office Building. In both buildings, the occupied area was brand new and had been on the market for over a year. The vacancy rates of the other submarkets varied due to small transactions. The average asking rent increased 3.8 from the prior quarter, to $28.56/SF. Real estate growth expectations remain stable, mainly because of changes to mortgage policy, but also because of the imminent arrival of investors from abroad. The overall business atmosphere is optimistic about future development. Urban Development of Buenos Aires The decentralization of big cities is a worldwide phenomenon that has occurred since the beginning of the century. Cities like Paris and London developed financial centers far from their downtown areas. In Buenos Aires, decentralization started at the beginning of the century and was consolidated with the construction of highways, improving access to remote areas and shortening travel times. As a result, the city s north and south became more important in the corporate real estate market. Vacancy rate for office went down almost about 1 since the beginning of the year, reaching 5.38 and currently representing one of the lowest in Latin-America. The average asking price increased since 4Q15, reaching for the currently quarter US$28.56/SF/YR. Market Analysis Asking Rent vs. Vacancy 30 20 10 0 Net Absorption 600.000 400.000 200.000 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 10 8 6 4 2 0 Aver. Asking Rent (US$/SF/YR) Vacancy Rate () 0-200.000-400.000-600.000 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 Net Absorption (SF) New Inventory (SF) Argentina Capital City Buenos Aires Population (2014) 42,980,000 GDP MM (2014) US$537,7 GDP Per Capita (2011/2015) US$12,509 Currency Peso Unemployment Rate 7,5 Market Summary Current Quarter Prior Quarter Year Ago Period Forecast Total Inventory (SF) 11,8MM 11,8MM 1,1MM Vacancy () 5.38 6.41 9.3 Net Absorption (SF) - 109,124-244,275-26,909 Average Asking Rent $28.56 $27.51 $28.42 Under Construction (SF) 4,207,264 4,207,264 2,976,218 =
Northen Area Submarkets: Asking Rent - Vacancy Rate CABA Submarkets: Asking Rent - Vacancy Rate 30.09 3.47 LIBERTADOR CORRIDOR Rent (US$/SF/YR) Vacancy Rate () 33.44 3.57 CATALINAS - RETIRO Rent (US$/SF/YR) Vacancy Rate () 27.87 27.31 5.94 PANAMERICANA CORRIDOR 28.98 9.94 MIDTOWN 9 DE JULIO 26.75 MICROCENTRO 25.64 SOUTH AREA 13.38 1.38 0.00 28.42 5.36 PUERTO MADERO Corporate Market "Hot Areas" Every Buenos Aires submarket contains premium areas where rents exceed the submarket average. Two blocks located in the Catalinas-Retiro submarket, Avenida Leandro N. Alem and Avenida Eduardo Madero, have average asking rents as high as $36.23/SF, while the asking rents for the rest of this submarket average $27.95/SF. Demand Areas by Submarket - Hot Areas 2015-2016 - + Hotness The same phenomenon occurs in northern Buenos Aires, where the submarket s most popular and most extensive buildings are located around the intersection of Avenida General Paz and Autopista Ingeniero Pascual Palazzo. Finally, there are isolated cores of high demand in the Panamericana Corridor, due to the submarket s geographical distribution and extension. The most in-demand offices are located in the Thames Office Parc, Urbana and Bureau Parc San Isidro complexes. Asking rent also varies within each hot area. For example, there are 40-year-old buildings in the Catalinas-Retiro submarket that are emblematic of the city, but naturally have older technology and construction than the new buildings that are being constructed around them. As a result, there are buildings with asking rents of $39.60/SF occupying the same block as buildings with asking rents of $24.52/SF.
Microcentro Catalinas Retiro Puerto Madero 9 de Julio South Area Midtown Panamericana Libertador Research Variation within the Market inventory is expected to increase in second-quarter 2016 with the addition of the Madero Riverside building, totaling 310,936 square feet in the Puerto Madero submarket; the Torre Consultatio building, totaling 818,056 square feet in Catalinas- Retiro; and Bellini Tower, totaling approximately 129,166 square feet in Microcentro, which will represent a 16.4 increase in that district s inventory. The Buenos Aires office market has been mostly static over the past two years, with isolated operations accounting for most market activity. One example of market stagnation is the vacant space in the Bouchard Tower (Bouchard 547) in the Catalinas submarket, which has been on the market for more than a year. Another example is Juana Manso 999-1069 in Puerto Madero, where several floors are always available these days. This year, however, we expect most available space will be occupied, as the market is poised to regain its dynamism. Average Asking Rent vs. Vacancy Rate () $ 50 $ 40 $ 30 $ 20 $ 10 $ 0 30 24 18 12 6 0 The Importance of Sustainability As discussed in previous reports, the demand for sustainable buildings has become a global trend in the corporate real estate market. Although this is mostly because companies want to demonstrate their commitment to the environment, there is also an economic benefit with respect to expenses and the services cost. This cost is one of the most studied variables when comparing possible new locations and is decisive when choosing one option over the other. Also, buildings are modified through energy savings and general maintenance of the property. In addition, with the release of public services tariffs, they are likely to achieve even greater efficiency than conventional buildings. The total sustainable building inventory in Buenos Aires reached 3,840,537 square feet, representing approximately 30 of the total inventory built for the corporate market. It is estimated that during the next two years, approximately 3.0 million sustainable square feet will be added to the market, getting closer to the LEED -certified inventories of Brazil and Chile, which currently are three times larger than Argentina s. In the 9 de Julio submarket, a profitable building LEED Gold certification with 11 floors and more than 58,125 square feet Rent (US$/SF/YR) Vacancy Rate () Inventory - Average Asking Rent - Vacancy By Submarket 4.000.000 SF 3.500.000 SF 30 3.000.000 SF 24 2.500.000 SF 2.000.000 SF 18 1.500.000 SF 12 1.000.000 SF 6 500.000 SF 0 0 building with LEED Gold certification will be added onto Carlos Pellegrini 719. Decreases Premium Offices Construction Cost According to the Contract Workplaces monthly report that is referenced in each of our market reports, a variation of -29.46 was detected last quarter, representing a decrease in the cost of construction. This is a result of the devaluation that occurred at Inventory (SF) Vacancy Rate () Rent (US$/m²/mes)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Research the end of 2015. For fourth-quarter 2015, construction cost was calculated as approximately AR $9.00 per square meter, compared with approximately AR $15.00 per square meter in first-quarter 2016. Construction Cost Evolution Price AR$ / sqm THE FUTURE OF THE MARKET The Buenos Aires real estate market is not detached from the national economy. Among the main economic variables that will influence the market are inflation, unemployment and interest rates. Brazil is one of Argentina's biggest commercial and export partners, which could generate investment opportunities in Argentina. In conclusion, the corporate real estate market currently awaits a more stable climate that will lead to new transactions, new investments and even the development of new projects. Source: Contract Workplaces GDP 9 5 1-3 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015* -7-11 Source: World Bank *GSP 2015 = 1,00, Cepal Argentina s Exchange Rate - CPI 30 $ 10 23 16 9 $ 8 $ 6 $ 4 2 $ 2-5 $ 0 CPI (). Exchange Rate BNA (AR$) *1999-2007 INDEC Source 2008-2014 Calculated through the price for the consumer geometrical average calculated by statistical institutes Source: Banco de la Nacion Argentina, INDEC
Submarket Statistics By Submarket Total Under Total Qtr YTD Direct Sublet Total Inventory Construction Vacancy Absorption Absorption Asking Rent Asking Rent Asking Rent (SF) (SF) Rate (SF) (SF) (US$/SF/YR) (US$/SF/YR) (US$/SF/YR) CABA Microcentro 795,053 344,444 1.38 0 5,812 $26.75 N/A $26.75 Catalinas-Retiro 3,770,594 1,802,953 3.57 0 138,757 $33.44 N/A $33.44 Puerto Madero 3,167,772 528,066 5.36 0 45,940 $28.42 N/A $28.42 9 de Julio 876,870 76,020 13.38-106,591 214,212 $27.75 N/A $27.87 South Area 515,354 580,766 0 0 0 $25.64 N/A $25.64 Midtown 634,069 69,965 9.94-2,583 31,430 $28.98 N/A $28.98 GBA Libertador Corridor 775,183 385,928 3.47 0 14,983 $30.09 N/A $30.09 Panamericana Corridor 1,319,363 129,166 5.94 0 64,841 $27.31 N/A $27.31 By Class 11,854,261 4,283,278 5.38-109,124 515,978 $28.56 N/A $28.56
Principal Buildings Under Construction Proyect Submarket Total Area Rentable Area Date LEED (SF) (SF) Torre IRSA Catalinas-Retiro 597,880 376,736 2017 Madero Riverside Puerto Madero 297,086 177,604 2Q16 Al Rio Corredor Libertador 435,894 342,876 2016 Nodus II Corredor Panamericana SD 131,427 2017 WTC III Puerto Madero 82,343 41,171 2016 Officia Pilar I Corredor Panamericana 107,639 43,055 1Q17 Banco Macro Catalinas - Retiro 441,319 376,736 2017 Consultatio Catalinas-Retiro 817,249 516,667 2Q16 Carlos Pellegrini 719 9 de Julio 15,355 5,477 3Q16
Newmark Grubb Bacre HEADQUARTERS 1515 Olazabal St, Suite C203 CABA 1428, Argentina +5411 4787 6889 Domingo Speranza Founder and President Newmark Grubb BACRE +54 114.787.6889 dsperanza@bacre.com.ar Melina Szienberg Market Research Newmark Grubb BACRE +54 114.787.6889 mszeinberg@ngbacre.com.ar Glossary of Terms Absorption A measure of the change in occupied space Availability Space marketed for lease regardless of when the space will be available or whether the space is vacant or occupied Deliveries The total RBA of properties added to the inventory once construction has been completed Direct Space Available space offered for lease by the building owner, landlord, or owner representative Leasing Activity The volume of leases signed including new leases, direct and sublet leases, extensions and renewals, and leases signed in proposed or under construction buildings Occupancy Any space physically occupied by a tenant, regardless of lease status of the space Rentable Building Area (RBA) A measurement of the total square feet in a building including the tenant and common areas such as the lobby and hallways Sublet Space Available space offered for lease by a building tenant seeking a subtenant to fulfill the remaining lease obligation Under Construction Buildings under construction are defined by the time the foundation is poured through the time the building is certified for occupancy Vacancy Space not physically occupied by a tenant, regardless of the lease status or availability of space Weighted Average Rent The asking dollar amount for the use of available space, weighted by size--the average does not include negotiable or unpublished rates and is reported as full service including operating costs Office inventory includes all multi-tenant and single tenant buildings at least 20,000 square feet in total rentable building area. Owner occupied buildings are not included in the inventory. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at www.ngkf.com/research All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NGKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains.