Knowledge-based housing policy: The Dutch example

Plenary III - 1. DEBATE: EU Housing research: Taking it forward Knowledge-based housing policy: The Dutch example Els C.M. van Schie els.vanschie@minvrom.nl Paper presented at the ENHR conference "Housing in an expanding Europe: theory, policy, participation and implementation" Ljubljana, Slovenia 2-51 July 2006

Knowledge-based housing policy: The Dutch example Els C.M. van Schie Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) Abstract The Netherlands has a long tradition of large-scale national housing surveys and knowledge-based housing policy. Initially the surveys were used as a basis for national housing plans. In the past decades, the responsibility for housing policy has been decentralized to local parties, yet the need for national housing surveys has remained. Reliable knowledge is required for the substantiation of national policy directions and specific policy measures and to account for policy and its outcomes. As the number of regulations is decreasing and subsidies are being downsized, knowledge is becoming more important as a policy instrument. In offering the available knowledge to local parties, the national government aims to support and help these parties by providing a reliable basis for local housing policy. The national surveys have been updated in order to gear them to the new requirements. The new Dutch Housing and Living Survey contains new policy issues and its structure is more flexible. An overview of the changes and a description of the new survey will be provided below. Apart from national surveys and other types of national housing research, international studies also serve as a basis for national housing policy. The possibilities and restrictions of these international studies as a knowledge base for housing policy will be discussed as well. 2

Introduction The Netherlands has a long tradition of using research for its national housing policy. Housing was one of the major themes in the post-war reconstruction of the country. Obviously, in those days the national government was responsible for the central planning of the renewal of the housing stock. It played a strong role in policy-making, planning and supervision, while the local governments engaged in implementation and could be seen as the front office for the national housing policy. This central planning strategy combined with national rent policy and substantial subsidies contributed to the fast reconstruction of Dutch cities and the development of new housing estates. In the 1960s and 1970s, the general tendency was to limit state regulation of society. As a reflection of this political change, central planning was replaced by free-market operation in many other policy areas, but not so in the domain of housing policy, where the national planning strategy continued to exist. In other European countries, governments started to reduce their influence on the housing market to make housing policy a more market-oriented affair (Dieleman, 1997). It seemed that the Netherlands did not intend to revive the strategy of central planning. Moreover, from those days onwards planning not only involved a quantitative objective in cutting down the housing shortage; qualitative aspects of housing and local/regional differentiation became additional focus areas of national policy. Central planning at a relatively low regional level, taking into account qualitative aspects of housing, required a substantial body of information about housing demands and prognoses for future demographics. This can be seen as the original reason why a solid national research programme on housing demand was set up. The most influential type research project in the area of housing in the Netherlands is the Housing Demand Survey, which originates from the 1960s. In the slipstream of this survey a number of prognostic instruments were 3

developed to predict the quantity, quality and location of houses needed to satisfy the demands. These research instruments still have a great influence on housing policy at the national as well as the regional or local level. Initially the research aim was to provide reliable substantiation for the national plans by describing the needs at the national as well as the regional/local level. In the 1990s a gradual but substantial shift occurred in the housing policy: the national housing subsidies were cut and the national planning strategy was rescinded. National government gradually abandoned its central control over housing by decentralizing housing policy to local parties, allowing more space for market operation and increasing the independence of the social housing associations. At the same time, the need for reliable, adequate information about the developments on the housing market, housing demands, building conditions and prognoses remained. Housing is still a topical issue for the national government. Recent housing policy entails more than combating the housing shortage; it also involves issues concerning the quality of housing, the development of neighbourhoods (in the cities), social circumstances (including social security) in relation to physical conditions, the affordability of housing, etc. The role of the national government is to create the conditions for a well-functioning housing market. This covers regulations on building conditions, the construction of a (substantial) part of (social) rental houses and the responsibilities and obligations of the social housing associations. Although not as prominently as before, national housing policy still also involves subsidies for the restructuring of poor neighbourhoods and the promotion of the construction of new houses. National subsidies and tax schemes for individuals are intended to guarantee the affordability of housing. These instruments also affect the housing market itself. The implementation of housing policy not only depends strongly on legislation, but on the actions of local parties as well. To put it more firmly, local parties are to a major extent responsible for housing policy. Persuasion by speech (i.e. promoting policy) 4

and knowledge are becoming more important instruments for the national government in reaching its policy goals. This might explain the great importance attached to research and the development of knowledge in the area of housing these days. This paper concerns the indispensability of knowledge (based on research) for proper housing policy. It focuses on (i) the use of research for national housing policy, (ii) knowledge as a policy instrument used to influence and convince others, and (iii) possibilities and limitations of international studies for housing policy. This paper merely describes the Dutch situation. Before discussing the use of knowledge in policy-making it will first focus on the research programme of the Ministry of Housing in the Netherlands. National housing research in the Netherlands The Netherlands has a long and strong tradition of housing research. When the Dutch census had been abolished in the 1960s, the demand arose for a social survey on housing. From that time onwards the Ministry of Housing has been responsible for developing a national Housing Demand Survey and a national Housing Quality Survey, which combines a survey among citizens with professional inspections. The Housing Demand Survey The Housing Demand Survey (Woningbehoefte Onderzoek or WBO) was developed in the 1960s. Once every four years, a random sample of Dutch households (between 60,000 and 90,000 respondents) participates in this survey. Its design guarantees that reliable data are obtained at different levels: at the national level, at the level of various selections of cities and neighbourhoods and at the level of regional housing markets. This way the data provide a substantiation for various national policy themes. They may also be able to serve as a basis for regional or even local policy, but this depends on the policy issue concerned and, of course, on the size of the area. Over the past years, local or 5

regional parties have been invited to participate in the survey in order to realize their own research objectives. The number of respondents was extended to a level that was sufficient for achieving reliable statistics for that specific region/city. The data collected have changed slightly over the years, as new technologies were adopted. However, the quality of the statistics, their representativeness and the comparability of data from different years have always been and still are considered very important. As a consequence, a substantial part of the data is still collected face to face, besides interviews by phone and some electronic questionnaires. The combination of data collection methods has been developed as a smart mix, which guarantees a response of at least 60%. Over the years, the content of the questionnaires has remained more or less the same in order to assure that developments over time will be reflected in the statistics. Yet policy issues do change. New questions concerning topical issues have therefore been added to the questionnaires and questions about issues that are no longer relevant have been dismissed. A lot of attention is being given to the balance between obtaining statistics that are consistent in the long term and updating questionnaires to keep them in line with current and future policy issues. While in the Housing Demand Survey the experience, behaviour and wishes of citizens play a central role, the Housing Quality Survey focuses on several technical and functional aspects of houses and the environment. Housing Quality Survey The Dutch Housing Quality Survey (Kwalitatieve Woningregistratie or KWR) is a national survey that has been carried out since the mid-1970s. Since then the survey has developed into the largest, most extensive survey of the quality of the Dutch housing stock and living environment. Over time the survey has undergone a number of important modifications, some of them brought about by 6

changes in the emphasis of housing policy. It is conducted once every five or six years. In the last version, the sample covered 15,000 houses; the survey was completed in 2001 and consisted of two parts: - physical inspection of the houses by a professional qualified surveyor; - telephone interviews with the householders of the inspected dwellings. The first version of the survey was intended to identify the need for housing improvement. Its purpose was to obtain an insight at the national level for different categories: ownership, local authority size and year of construction. On the basis of the first survey, a decision was made to include a larger share of older houses and houses in large cities in the samples of subsequent surveys. In these types of houses the first survey and subsequent surveys as well revealed most shortcomings in the dwellings. It emerged from the first survey that 18% of the total housing stock showed serious shortcomings. In the latest survey the percentage of houses in poor condition had dropped to 2%, while 92% of houses in the Dutch housing stock was of good to very good quality. The quality referred to here relates to structural aspects such as fixtures and fittings, the standard of maintenance and the repair cost of a dwelling. The structural housing quality is a central aspect of the survey. Aside from structural aspects, however, functional aspects have always been addressed in the survey as well, such as the number of rooms and their size. Over the years, more and more elements have been added to the survey. New policy issues have been introduced: energy consumption in houses, including the insulation of the dwelling and the heating and hot water systems; the accessibility of the dwelling and its suitability for older people. The survey has been extended to cover not just the home but the immediate living environment as well, addressing safety and security, amenities and the quality of the local area, for instance. Due to the inclusion of a questionnaire that addressed subjective judgments on the living environment, an overlap with the Housing Demand Survey emerged. At the 7

same time, the increased quality of the Dutch housing stock resulted in a discussion of whether the Housing Quality Survey should actually be continued. 8

New Dutch Housing and Living Survey Both of the above-mentioned surveys (KWR and WBO) have been conducted on behalf of the Netherlands Ministry of Housing and have naturally affected the national housing policy. A revision of the set-up of the housing surveys is in order, however, as (1) the responsibilities of the national government have changed over time, (2) the focus has shifted from housing to living (from bricks to occupants), and (3) society and policy are becoming more dynamic. Moreover, the results of the last Housing Quality Survey showed that less attention needs to be paid to the physical conditions of Dutch housing stock and to frequent monitoring of this aspect. In both surveys the focus has shifted toward the neighbourhood and the living environment, which has resulted in some overlap between the surveys. In view of the above, it is time to move on from two separate surveys to one integrated survey on housing and living, which will include all the relevant topics. At the same time, the new survey has to accommodate the need to anticipate more dynamically. The frequency of four or five years is becoming insufficient to serve the policy issues that arise. The challenge was therefore to create greater flexibility while maintaining the high quality of the existing Dutch housing surveys. The newly developed Housing and Living Survey (WoonOnderzoek Nederland or WoON) has the following characteristics: a) pool structure; mother sample as a pool for next modules: o net mother sample of 40,000 respondents; o new mother sample once every three years; o stratified sample (comparable to Housing Demand Survey); b) demand for housing module (i.e. basic module): o guaranteed time series (for Housing Demand Survey); o net mother sample of 40,000 respondents; o conducted periodically, at three-year intervals; o possibility of oversampling for participating parties (local governments); 9

c) specific modules: a. social physical (three-year cycle): survey on subjective experience of the living environment; qualified environmental surveyors; b. energy consumption in homes (six-year cycle); professional, qualified surveyors of technical housing conditions; survey on energy behaviour; c. housing for seniors (six-year cycle); d. housing quality (nine-year cycle); e. housing renewal (three-year cycle); f. consumer behaviour (only once); g. other issues (no prognoses). The purpose of the new Dutch Housing and Living Survey is to be a proper successor to the Housing Demand Survey and the Housing Quality Survey, both in terms of content and in terms of the quality of the surveys. The new survey aims to provide information on which Dutch (national) housing policy can be based. As the focus of housing policy is shifting toward the broader spectrum of living as compared to the more restricted physical housing domain, it is obvious that additional information is required. The module on the connection between physical and social aspects in the living environment, the module on housing for seniors and the module on consumer behaviour accommodate these new needs for information. The pool structure makes the survey more flexible by adopting different cycles for different modules depending on the changeability of the issue. It furthermore offers the opportunity to implement a new survey at any time and to collaborate in specific modules with relevant parties such as local governments, (umbrella organizations for) housing associations or real estate developers. 10

The first version of the Dutch Housing and Living Survey will be conducted in the period from 2006 to 2008. The collection of data for the basic module on housing demand was completed in April 2006. The first research publications will be issued in the second half of 2006 and the mother sample will be used to form specific samples for the subsequent modules. The next module is the socialphysical one, whereby the questionnaires focus on the subjective experience of people living in a specific neighbourhood. This module will be conducted before the summer of 2006. Trained surveyors will carry out the objective inspections of the areas surrounding the addresses in the sample. This will take place during the summer months of 2006, except in the holiday period and the period of the football world cup. Those two periods would not be representative: the first will be relatively quiet as many people will not be at home and in the second period some streets and neighbourhoods will be painted orange and will appear rather different compared to other periods. Knowledge-based national housing policy As stated before, the strong Dutch tradition of housing surveys is connected to the long tradition of national housing policy (which continued until relatively recently). A strong knowledge base has made it possible to design national housing plans with a certain validity and reliability. The primary goal of the national surveys and additional studies, including prognostic instruments, has been to provide a solid basis for national housing policy. Policy substantiation The prognoses of the number of houses needed nationally and regionally form a good example of knowledge-based housing policy. Opinions, wishes or political ideology as a basis for these kinds of prognoses would be risky. There would be a serious chance that this resulted in plans or even worse: their realization not meeting the housing needs of the population. In other words, the purpose of knowledge-based housing plans is to prevent unrealistic housing programmes. 11

Nowadays, prognoses of the number of new houses needed regionally still receive plenty of attention. A knowledge base is also required for policy on the affordability of housing. In the Netherlands almost half of the housing stock consists of rental dwellings. In a large majority of the rental sector, the rent is regulated by national policy. Changes in the rental system will affect the affordability for individual occupants, and as a consequence will also affect other aspects of the housing market. Specific groups of people may need to move house (or the contrary: they may not be able to) and this could result in further (or less) segregation between certain population groups. The new rental policy in the Netherlands which is being drawn up will be essentially based on political ideology. At the same time, a knowledge base is vital for an understanding of the consequences of the implementation of specific aspects of the system. Research is required in order to predict the impact and to protect us from unwanted effects. Knowledge as a basis for new policy can, and generally does, have an impact on further details of the policy. Evaluating policy and accounting for it Once policy has been implemented, research is needed to describe and understand its impact. Specific evaluations can demonstrate the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of a certain policy. Even when the policy seems to be properly based on (theoretical) knowledge and expectations about the process, in practice the outcome may be different. The effects of the policy may be strongly dependent on the circumstances or the theory may be invalid. Especially when subsidies are involved, good evaluation of the policy is indispensable. Subsidies are generally used to achieve specific goals, such as to prevent segregation in certain neighbourhoods or to increase the accessibility of the housing market for new home owners. These goals need to be accounted for: the research aims to demonstrate whether and to what extent goals are being achieved. 12

Evaluation studies are essential for knowledge-based policy. Systematic evaluations are useful in showing the results and outcomes of policy, but they also add to the understanding of processes: which policy measures are effective under what conditions. In an ideal situation, experimental or quasi-experimental studies would be conducted. In practice, however, it only happens in exceptional cases that policy is properly tested in experimental as well as controlled conditions. The implementation of new policy provides the experimental conditions, but generally no time and money is available for controlled conditions. At best, controlled before-and-after studies will be conducted to show the impact of policy measures. One might argue that this constitutes the minimal methodological condition for a proper evaluation of policy measures and to show the outcome of a policy. Evidence for the causality is limited even under this condition. Case studies may also aim to contribute to a better understanding of policy measures. However, plain descriptions of single or separate cases tend to lack in generalizable knowledge. As a consequence, these studies tend to have little impact on (national) policy. Case studies are used with the intention of demonstrating good and bad practices. These studies may motivate (local) parties to continue, change or update their actions. Case studies can have a strong communicative impact. Vivid descriptions of relevant cases may affect more (and other) professionals than complex quantitative scientific studies. One might wonder, however, whether all case studies contribute to evidence-based rather than opinion-based policy. Putting issues on the agenda A third purpose of knowledge and research in the policy arena is to awaken the policy-maker and promote the inclusion of new issues. The large-scale national surveys focus on specific policy-related issues, but they also function as a systematic monitor of developments in society. Changes in, for example, the size of households, the need for houses without stairs, the relatively unfavourable 13

housing conditions for specific population groups, indoor air pollution, etcetera, can require policy attention. It is not only knowledge obtained through large-scale surveys that affects the policy agenda; research from academia could have an influence, either directly, by triggering public attention or through political organizations. Academic researchers may feel free to explore new areas, to bring up new issues and even to challenge established policy measures. This role pre-eminently suits professors and other academic staff at universities. There are several areas of national policy on which scientific research has a significant impact, for instance ecological and environmental policy and healthcare policy. Scientific research also affects housing policy, but here the impact is not limited to national policy. As local and regional parties are to a major extent responsible for housing policy, scientific research focuses on this level of housing policy as well. As most local parties lack their own research instruments, they are more dependent on knowledge developed by others as a basis for their local housing policy. Knowledge as a policy instrument How can the national government realize its policy goals? Traditionally, two policy instruments have played a dominant role: regulations and subsidies. Both instruments still exist with regard to housing policy. Regulation is the primary instrument used to guarantee good physical housing conditions and to maintain the rental system. Subsidies are mainly limited to supporting urban regeneration and promoting the construction of new homes. Apart from the subsidies granted to local parties, public money is involved in the mortgage tax rebate and the rent rebate. The amount of money granted in (local) subsidies has dropped dramatically over time, however. Subsidies are now merely used as trigger money to influence local parties in a certain direction. The national government develops a policy direction and uses its instruments to persuade local parties to adopt this direction. The focus of attention of the national government is on local governments and housing associations, as these are the most important parties 14

at the local level which implement housing policy, preferably in line with the national policy direction. The main focus of national housing policy has shifted from the two traditional policy instruments of regulation and subsidies to persuasion by speech, offering assistance and providing knowledge. On behalf of the national government, large-scale surveys are being conducted and additional prospective instruments are being used. This results in a substantial body of information being available at the national level. This knowledge is used as a basis for national policy directions, but it may also contain useful information for other parties responsible for housing policy. Local governments are of major importance in the operationalization of housing policy, and knowledge at the local level is needed to guarantee knowledge-based policy. The knowledge available to national policy-makers has therefore been made accessible to other relevant parties as well. By offering this knowledge to local parties, the national government aims to provide a reliable basis for local housing policy. Its ambition is to contribute to well-founded local housing plans. Knowledge-based plans are perceived as less risky and as a better guarantee of achieving the national policy goals than opinion-based policy and policy lacking any research basis. The information obtained through the national surveys may not be sufficient for local purposes. The number of local respondents will generally be too limited to get reliable results. This is especially the case in smaller cities or regions. Therefore, local or regional parties are invited to participate in (certain parts) of the national surveys. At relatively limited costs, the number of respondents can be extended and reliable results can be assured for the area concerned, whether it is a region, a city or even a district or neighbourhood. This way, the national government supports the basis for housing policy at the local level. Another advantage of this approach is that national and local parties use the same language ; all definitions and classifications are the same at the national and local level, which simplifies the discussions and negotiations. This one 15

language is also why the various parties collaborate in the development and execution of specific studies, including certain modules in the Dutch Housing and Living Survey. Knowledge is also used as a policy instrument to influence the local agenda. Inviting other parties to participate in the survey affects the policy focus of the participant. The national survey includes topics that are relevant from a national perspective. The survey focuses on those issues that are part of the national housing policy. Knowledge is also used more explicitly to influence the policy agenda. Research results are made available to other parties and actively presented via a number of communication channels. In communicating knowledge, the focus is on those studies and results that are most relevant for local policy practice. Knowledge is becoming a more important and more influential policy instrument. As other policy instruments are becoming less influential, knowledge may in the future become even more important for Dutch housing policy. International studies for housing policy Housing policy is a matter of national concern. The European Union does not directly interfere in this domain. Yet as the EU is responsible for related domains, such as competition and market forces and environmental issues, it does interfere indirectly in the domain of housing policy, and its importance is growing. At the same time, the national influence is decreasing in favour of local governments, and this decentralization trend is a general phenomenon in Europe. While policy is shifting toward the local level, research and knowledge are becoming more internationally oriented. One reason for this is that the EU promotes or even demands international comparisons. At the same time there seems to be a voluntary drive toward international research. As benchmarking is 16

becoming a general method for gaining knowledge, one may learn about the national housing market by comparing it with housing markets in other (European) countries. This is not simply a matter of comparing certain indicators. Defining the indicators in order to make sensible comparisons is in itself a complex matter. Nonetheless, the different European ministries responsible for housing make an effort to collect statistics that can be used as relevant indicators for the housing market. From these statistics, each country can learn for which indicators its national situation is exceptional and for which indicators it is very much average. These comparisons can trigger questions related to changing housing policy. However, one has to be very careful in drawing easy conclusions from these simple statistics. Each national housing market has its own history and is embedded in its own national systems of taxes and subsidies. What s more, differences in the amount of space, the culture and climate are influential factors for the housing market. To understand the national housing market of a country one should not compare single elements but rather take the context of the indicators into account. Useful comparisons can only be made with respect to the whole complex system of national housing. For policy purposes, international comparison can be helpful to understand one s own national housing market better at a global level. It may also function as a source of inspiration. The knowledge that the percentage of unoccupied houses in the Netherlands is extremely low or that mortgages here are relatively high could be considered supportive of the continuation of the relevant policy measures or could be a reason to change one s policy. International comparisons of single statistics can result in all kinds of questions without yielding any answers. International research that provides reliable explanations for specific processes in the housing market can be valuable for national policy. Studies demonstrating a causal relationship between policy measures and their outcomes in society can be of great use. However, strong evidence for causality between a specific 17

measure and a specific outcome is rare. As noted before, this is restricted to controlled before-and-after studies or studies with a quasi-experimental design. Even the results of studies conducted under these conditions cannot easily be transferred from one situation to another or from one country to another. The contextual conditions of the systems generally vary so much between countries that causal evidence found in one country may be absent in another. For policy purposes, international studies can be useful under restricted, comparable conditions. For example, European countries aim to learn from each other with respect to exclusion and segregation processes in the suburbs of major cities. It would not be wise to simply compare the situations of Amsterdam and Paris, as compared to Paris Amsterdam is a small city, which therefore has small problems. It would be more useful to compare certain neighbourhoods and learn form these specific cases. But it may even be useless to compare cases which are similar with respect to relevant criteria such as the location in relation to the city centre, the variation in population groups, the number of inhabitants, etcetera. Crucial elements of the national system may have had a strong influence on differences between neighbourhoods. Factors such as the position of the mayor and the existence or non-existence of a strong government at the level of the greater city area may be responsible for the outcomes of policy measures instead of the policy measures themselves. Still, the comparison of cases in different countries can contribute to the adoption of policy measures at a national level and at a local level. The performance of more international studies can be helpful for a better understanding of the systems in different countries and serve as a source of inspiration for national policy. As Europe is getting smaller, the need for knowledge about housing systems in other EU countries is growing. The value of international studies as a knowledge base for national policy should, however, not be overestimated. 18

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