Using Analysis to Improve the Environment for Transit

Using Analysis to Improve the Environment for Transit

POWERFUL ANALYTIC TOOLS

Envision Tomorrow/ process Step 1: Scenario development starts by creating a library of building types that are financially feasible at the local level Building Types Development Types Scenario Development Evaluation 1

Envision Tomorrow/ prototype buildings Why start with buildings? Easily modeled & lots of existing data Density and Design Rents and Sales Prices Costs and Affordability Energy and Water Use Fiscal Impacts Use the ROI Model to Create a Range of Buildings

Envision Tomorrow/ process Step 2: Define the buildings, streets and amenities that make up all the places in which we live, work and play Building Types Development Types Scenario Development Evaluation 2

Envision Tomorrow/ development types A Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a Place Town Residential High Mix Neighborhood Residential Suburban Residential

Envision Tomorrow/ as easy as painting

Process/ monitor indicators on-the-fly Detailed tables Quick reference graphs

Land Use Measures that Increase Transit (Walk, bike) Increase Housing and Employment Density Maximize Infill Development Diversify Land Use Mix Make Neighborhoods Complete all daily needs within walking distance of XX% of households Include: higher intersection densities; greater sidewalk coverage; reduced building setbacks; Reduced street widths; a greater number of pedestrian crossings; and a higher number of street trees.

Reduce GHG Emissions through Land Use Include accessibility factors such as: closer distance to employment for households; a higher number of jobs within 1 mile of housing; shorter distance to retail/services for housing; greater proximity to nearest retail employment; and shorter distance to transit stops Design regional transport so that More Employment within 10, 20, and 30 minutes of households; More employment within 30 minute transit ride of households

measuring TOD readiness (p s) people physical form Potential (market) places performance ped/bike connectivity 11/3/2011 11

transit orientation score 11/3/2011 15

11/3/2011 16

11/3/2011 17

11/3/2011 19

FEASIBLE PROTOTYPES

Pro-Forma Model

University Avenue and 200 Street Existing Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street with public improvements Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street public improvements and mid-density scenario Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street public improvements and higher-density scenario Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street public improvements and higher-density scenario Provo, Utah

University Avenue and 200 Street public improvements and highest-density scenario Provo, Utah

Driving Question: Can investing in public amenities have a transformative impact on development feasibility in the region?

Developers unable to build to minimum densities in some areas or achieve maximum allowed in other How Much Redevelopment Capacity Does Our Region Really Have? Answer is not static depends on market demand, rents/prices, and desirability of place. It s estimated that about 50% of today s high density multi-family zoned areas will go under-utilized during the next 20 years. (2009 UGR and MetroScope analysis) 45-60 foot condos built in 150 ft zone near Gateway Zoning capacity is significantly ahead of the market in some areas (and zoning certainly does not guarantee development).

Small Shifts in Market Can Greatly Increase Density Financial efficiency in construction isn t a straight line Beyond a certain density, construction costs become increasingly expensive Cost increases driven by structured parking and steel vs. surface parking and wood construction materials Financial sweet spots dictate upper end of product range vary by market area Current Situation: Type V not feasible $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- $(20,000) $(40,000) $(60,000) $(80,000) $(100,000) $(120,000) High Rise $102,879 Midrise (Structured) $71,638 Type V (Podium) $5,034 NOT Feasible Duplex/Townhom Type V (Surface) e $39,261 $34,495 However, even small shifts in rent/prices can significantly change an area s natural density limit Example: 10% difference in rent can tip the balance, more than doubling upper density limit Type V Podium Parking: 87 du/acre Type V Surface Parking: 31 du/acre 10% Rent Increase: Type V is feasible $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- $(20,000) $(40,000) $(60,000) $(80,000) $(100,000) High Rise $82,655 Midrise (Structured) $51,183 Type V (Podium) $15,022 Feasible Duplex/Townhom Type V (Surface) e $60,816 $61,616

5 Basic Buildings Forms High Rise Mid with Structured Type V with Podium Type V with Surface Duplex or Townhome Density 518 du/ac 12 FAR 113 du/ac 5.5 FAR 87 du/ac 2 FAR 31 du/ac 0.6 FAR 21 du/ac 0.6 FAR Construction Costs $185/sf $166/sf $115/sf $115/sf $115/sf

Lake Oswego Study Area and Current Zoning Study Area Zoning Focused around commercial, industrial and higher density residential core of Lake Oswego

Lake Oswego: Current Conditions Redevelopable Parcels Under Current Conditions: Largely Amenitized

Lake Oswego: Fully Amenitized Redevelopable Parcels: Highly Amenitized 10% increase in price/rent: Twice the Land Area Double the Units

Lake Oswego Lake Oswego Conclusions Adding amenities to an already largely amenitized area, such as Lake Oswego, still significantly expands redevelopment opportunities 61% more land area New amenities increase achievable rents by 10% and enable more costly parcels to become feasible for redevelopment The added area can accommodate higher value building types such as the Type V Podium type Type V Podium is efficiently parked and dense Being able to develop this product type significantly increased the number of units able to be built

Lake Oswego 10% increase in price/rent: 61% more Land Area 137% more Units

Existing Conditions Lake Oswego 2nd Ave, between A Ave and B Ave

Initial Public Improvements Lake Oswego 2nd Ave, between A Ave and B Ave

Public Improvements and Resulting Private Investment Lake Oswego 2nd Ave, between A Ave and B Ave

PORTLAND 20-MINUTE NEIGHBORHOODS Process and Findings

Process: prototypes Used 13 prototypes in the analysis 11 of the prototypes were the products of past work with Portland BPS We created 2 new, more financially feasible versions of mixed-use prototypes that included surface parking instead of underground or tuck-under Attached Houses - High Density Attached Houses - Medium Density Neighborhood Corridor Apartments, Surface Parking Mixed-Use Slab Condo Mixed-Use Apartments - Large Household Mixed-Use Apartments - Large Household, Surface Parking Mixed-Use Apartments - Small Household Mixed-Use Apartments - Small Household, Surface Parking Narrow Lot House Neighborhood Mixed-Use Plexes Single Family, Medium Density SRO Housing Neighborhood Mixed-Use, Surface Parking

Field work model developments in SW Portland/Multnomah Village 4-story condos and townhomes 4-story apartments, townhomes and creek restoration

Field work -- model developments in St. Johns 3-story townhomes (one block off Lombard) 3-story condos (near Willamette River)

St Johns: Maximum Land Cost by Building Building Name Existing 90% 100% Attached Houses - High Density ($9.42) $3.78 $16.18 Attached Houses - Medium Density ($7.16) $6.87 $19.97 Neighborhood Corridor Apartments (SURFACE) ($41.93) ($28.17) ($14.83) Mixed-Use Slab Condo ($1,200.94) ($1,082.58) ($969.82) Mixed-Use Apartments (Large Household) ($281.58) ($245.11) ($209.90) Mixed-Use Apartments (Small Household) ($295.78) ($258.01) ($220.84) Narrow Lot House $5.05 $12.73 $19.94 Neighborhood Mixed-Use ($81.81) ($51.77) ($23.09) Plexes ($4.72) $8.27 $21.29 Single Family, Medium Density $4.14 $9.97 $15.47 Mixed-Use SRO Housing ($127.65) ($127.65) ($127.65) MU Apartments - Large Unit, Surface Parking ($54.35) ($36.18) ($18.31) MU Apartments - Small Unit, Surface Parking ($63.57) ($83.59) ($22.94) Neighborhood Mixed-Use (SURFACE PARKING ONLY) ($8.93) $15.26 $37.84

St Johns: Existing Conditions

St Johns: Largely Amenitized

St Johns: Highly Amenitized

Downtown St Johns: Existing

Downtown St Johns: 100% Amenitized

St Johns: Land Developed and Housing 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 - Acres Consumed Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Developed Acres Vacant Acres 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Housing & Mix BLI Existing (80%) 90% Amenitized 100% Amenitized Multifamily Townhome Single Family Mobile Home

Complete Streets Multi-Modal Approach

Canyon Rd., Beaverton

Thompson Blvd., Ventura

Thank You!