Farmland Leasing Update Mykel Taylor Kansas State University January 9, 2017
Returns over Total Costs ($/ac) Net Farm and Ranch Income $230,000 $180,000 Net Income Per Operator Dryland Crop Cowherd $130,000 $80,000 $30,000 $(20,000)
Land Values Affected by profitability in ag sector But land values do not adjust as quickly as profitability to changes in commodity prices Adjustment period due to Long-run reason for buying and holding land Expectations of buyers/sellers
Returns over Total Costs ($/ac) Returns to Farming $175 $125 $75 $25 -$25 -$75 -$125 NC KFMA Enterprise Analysis Wheat Corn Grain Sorghum Soybeans Source: KFMA Enterprise Reports (http://www.agmanager.info/kfma)
Dollars Per Acre Kansas Land Values $3,500 $3,000 Irrigated Non-irrigated $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 Pasture $1,940 $1,500 $1,290 $1,000 $500 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: USDA-NASS
Cash Rent, $/ac Kansas Rental Rates $160.00 $140.00 $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 Irrigated Non-irrigated Pasture $129.00 $56.00 $19.00 $0.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: USDA-NASS
Rental Rates Do not change quickly. Why? Multi-year leases (3-5 year average) with fixed cash rent Negotiating a lower rent is difficult and some landowners dislike volatility in returns Landowners may drop tenant rather than take a lower rate Adjustment in rents will get messy
Bad Situation What if you find yourself in a situation where you are paying more for a leased parcel than you expect to profit from it? Decision to drop a parcel is multi-dimensional and varies by farm and parcel How do you approach this decision and what do you need to make the right one?
Decision Framework Time horizon for your decisions Short-run: cover your variable (cash) costs and you can keep going Variable costs: fertilizer, chemicals, seed, fuel, labor Fixed costs: depreciation on machinery, property taxes, utilities, management labor, owned land charge Long-run: cover all your costs (variable + fixed) to keep going We expect poor profitability for several more years How long is the short-run for you?
What is needed? Data Up-to-date and going back several years Accrual-based balance sheet that is updated monthly Have to know your fixed and variable costs Complete list of pros and cons specific to this parcel Location of parcel relative to home operation Non-pecuniary implications of keeping or losing parcel (family situation)
When to let it go Negotiations haven t moved the needle on lowering rent Switching to a flex lease, crop share Switching to a single year rental rate rather than multi-year to allow for adjustment up as soon as profits improve You can t cover your variable costs of operating it Your lender says you have to
Decision comes down to comparing your options COSTS OF YOU KEEP THE PARCEL Loss of dollars from farming it Covering cash costs Not paying yourself, no return to owned machinery Lower/no return to owned land Can you cut other costs to keep land base (family living expenses) Loss of dollars from subleasing it (might be able to loss less money) COSTS IF YOU LET IT GO Unlikely to get it back or find alternative parcel in the near future Own too much machinery relative to land base Keep it idle if owned outright Use for custom work if need to offset loan payment Sell machinery: tax implications
Run the numbers KFMA enterprise data from 2015 Corn, wheat, and soybeans at state level Highest 1/3 in profitability Corn: 475 acres Wheat: 762 acres Soybeans: 519 acres Decide whether to drop 300 acre parcel Even crop mix (1/3) Estimate that you are paying 75% more per acre than you can afford ($96/ac versus $55/ac)
Returns by Enterprise Corn - 2015 $/acre Returns Yield 124.00 Price 3.00 Total Returns 372.00 Total variable costs 256.09 Total Fixed Costs 117.82 Total Costs 373.91 Returns over TC -1.91 Soybeans - 2015 $/acre Returns Yield 45.00 Price 9.00 Total Returns 405.00 Total variable costs 183.27 Total Fixed Costs 110.51 Total Costs 293.78 Returns over TC 111.22 Wheat - 2015 $/acre Returns Yield 44.00 Price 3.75 Total Returns 165.00 Total variable costs 151.37 Total Fixed Costs 78.37 Total Costs 229.74 Returns over TC -64.74
If you keep the land Look at the profitability across the entire farm Using new crop bids for 2017 from Salina Currently losing money across entire farm: Total Returns 512,625.00 Total Variable Costs 384,603.82 Total Fixed costs 173,037.13 Total Costs 557,640.95 Total Returns per Acre 291.93 Total Costs per Acre 317.56 Total Net Returns per Acre -25.64
If you walk away from unprofitable land Don t pay rent or other variable costs for those 300 acres But overhead is now spread over a smaller land base Result: Total Returns 418,425.00 Total Variable Costs 273,030.82 Total Fixed costs 173,037.13 Total Costs 446,067.95 Total Returns per Acre 287.38 Total Costs per Acre 306.37 Total Net Returns per Acre -18.99 Change in Net Returns/Acre 6.65 Walking away improves your financial situation by $6.65/acre (long run)
If you walk away from profitable land For land you are not overpaying on ($55/acre), profitability is reduced if you drop those leased acres With land Total Returns per Acre 291.93 Total Costs per Acre 304.75 Total Net Returns per Acre -12.82 Walking away from Without land Total Returns per Acre 287.38 Total Costs per Acre 306.37 Total Net Returns per Acre -18.99 Change in Net Returns/Acre -6.16 affordable land makes your financial situation worse
What to do? Reduce costs using rationalization Unpaid operator labor ~ I don t have to be paid to be here Land & interest charge ~ The land is already paid for, so I don t need a return Reduce costs in other ways Sell machinery, land Reduce family living expenses Intensify management decisions to lower cash costs of production
River Valley Rents
Public Information Limited public information on rental rates Surveys (USDA, River Valley District) Budgeting approach: what you could afford to pay Comparisons need to be done carefully One measures what is actually being paid One measures what we expect could be paid
Rental Rates 2015 2016 K-State Estimates ($/ac) Non-Irrigated Cropland Clay 79.90 56.30 Cloud 75.10 53.40 Republic 79.50 56.40 Washington 84.80 59.90 Average 79.83 56.50 River Valley Dist. Survey ($/ac) 75.58 74.05 Pasture River Valley Dist. Survey ($/ac) 27.22 26.60
Why are rents staying high? Multi-year leases Consider signing 3-5 year leases but renegotiate rate annually Good yields in 2016 Kept some profitability in sector to pay rents that wouldn t be affordable with average or below average yields People are willing to pay more than they can afford in the short run Length of the short run is going to vary by producer
The Way Forward Actively manage debt Eroding working capital will cause cash flow issues Might require restructuring debt to long term Land value declines Will affect your equity, ability to borrow Current debt to asset ratios are relatively strong 2017 may be more challenging If return to historic yields and commodity prices stay low (which is expected)
The Way Forward Plan your moves with a multi-year horizon Anticipate costs of production far enough in advance to take advantage of early purchase discounts Use best available information to make your management decisions Keep up good communications with your landowners/tenants to make sure you both understand the situation Recognize that there will be opportunities in the coming years Apply the same careful decision-making strategies for both challenges and opportunities
The Way Forward Multi-year planning horizon Anticipate costs of production far enough in advance to take advantage of early purchase discounts Use best available information to make your management decisions Keep up good communications with your landowners/tenants to make sure you both understand the situation
The Way Forward Recognize that there will be opportunities in the coming years Apply the same careful decision-making strategies for both challenges and opportunities
Farmland Leasing Update Mykel Taylor Kansas State University January 9, 2017