Economy In the third quarter of 2018, the electoral race caused strong oscillations in the dollar market and in the stock exchange. Specialists believe that once the political result is decided, these economy indicators will stabilize and it will reach better levels. The annual GDP projection for 2018 decreased from 1.99% in July to 1.5% in September. Part of this review was due to the strong fall in industry and in investment that occurred in this period. Therefore, Brazil is showing a slow recovery of the economy. The annual projection of the IPCA increased. It went from 3.99% in July to 4.42% in September. This acceleration of IPCA raises the risk of inflation falling above the target set by the Central Bank, whose core is 4.5% (with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 p.p.). This result is mainly due to higher projection of administered prices. Specialists project the unemployment rate for September at 11.7%, the lowest rate of the year so far. In August, this indicator reached 12.1%. Therefore, the tendency of the unemployment rate for 2018 is to end the year at 12.08% - better result when compared to 2017 (12.74%). In July, this projection was 12.29%. As the unemployment indicator directly affects the real estate and the office market, this improvement in the labor market can influence the demand for offices, warehouses and shopping centers. Economic Indicators 2017 2018 (F) 12-Month Forecast Gross Domestic Product 0.99% 1.52% Inflation Rate 2.95% 4.42% Unemployment 12.74% 12.08% (Source: IBGE and LCA) Real Estate Indicators 3Q17 3Q18 12-Month Forecast Vacancy 24.5% 22.7% Net Absorption (,000) 72.19 80.70 Under Construction (,000) 0.00 41.69 Avg. Asking Rent (R$) 97.53 90.36 The American dollar average for September was at R$ 4.12 and projections indicate that it will end the year at R$ 3.70, when the political result will be known. It is important to keep in mind that the exchange rate was severely impacted by internal and external factors - such as the increase in the American interest rate by the Fed and trade negotiations between US, China, Turkey and economic recession in Argentina. The data observed up to the third quarter of 2018 indicate a small economic recovery. The possibility of the country's growth will depend, above all, on the results of the second round election, in which the proposals of the new president-elect will be known. Thus, the dollar and the stock exchange will tend to stabilize by the end of 2018. 1
(.000 sqm) Office Q3 2018 Market Overview For third quarter 2018, São Paulo s CBD office market recorded positive absorption for the third consecutive time. The main highlight for the quarter was the total net absorption of 81Ksqm due to the increasing demand in the main regions of the city like JK, Vila Olímpia and Chucri Zaidan. Our stats note that this type of volume has only been seen twice before: in the 4 th quarter of 2013 (80.4Ksqm) and in the 1 st quarter of 2017 (85Ksqm), with the occupancy of Odebrecht in its current headquarter in Paddock III and Claro in its both towers in Praça São Paulo Corporate respectively. Net Absorption/New Inventory/ Vacancy CBD Class AA+ Source: 100 80 60 40 20 0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Absorption New Inventory Vacancy Asking Rent/Vacancy Class AA+ Source: 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Despite the delivery of almost 42Ksqm the vacancy rate still dipped in Chucri Zaidan. 110 105 35% 30% São Paulo registered a net absorption of 81Ksqm in the third quarter of 2018, the highest volume since the beginning of 2017 100 95 90 85 80 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2016 2017 2018 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Asking Rent Vacancy *The vacancy rate calculated and established by, which takes into account the effective occupation is at 22.68%, while the commercial vacancy rate considering tracked leases in São Paulo CBD classes A and A+ closed the quarter at 18.54%. 02
(,000 sqm) Office Q3 2018 Occupancy With São Paulo s net absorption totalling 81Ksqm for the third quarter of the year, the vacancy rate dropped 1.6 p.p. (QoQ), and closed the quarter out at 22.7%. This is the lowest rate seen since the third quarter of 2014 when the vacancy rate was 18.3%. The regions that contributed the most for the total net absorption in the city were: JK, Chucri Zaidan, and Vila Olímpia (21.6Ksqm, 19.4Ksqm and 18.1Ksqm respectively). On the opposite end of the spectrum, Itaim and Paulista registered a total negative net absorption of - 2.7Ksqm and 2.5Ksqm, respectively. Pipeline The delivery of Parque da Cidade Corporate Torre Jequitibá in Chucri Zaidan region added about 42Ksqm to the city s total inventory. The volume of new deliveries has been falling since 2015, and in 2017 registered a total of only 59Ksqm. With that said, many buildings expected to be delivered in 2017 were postponed and delivered in the first three quarters of this year, accounting for 132Ksqm already delivered and another 32.8Ksqm expected to be delivered until the end of the year. Average Asking Rents Continuing the trend seen in the last few quarters, the average asking rent oscillated by 1.3% (QoQ), going from R$91.55/sqm in the second quarter to R$90.36/sqm for the current quarter. The variations in prices occurred in most regions of the city, but particularly in regions with high vacancy rates such as Santo Amaro and Marginal Pinheiros. New Inventory CBD Class AA+ Source: 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 03
Bubble Map Major Market Berrini Chucri Zaidan Faria Lima Chac. Sto. Antonio JK Marginal Pinheiros Pinheiros Vila Olímpia Absorption Volume The map above shows the volume of net absorption by each market. The main highlight this quarter was the volume seen in the JK region with 21.5Ksqm absorbed, followed by Chucri Zaidan with 19.3Ksqm and Vila Olímpia with 18.1Ksqm. 04
Heat Map 0,00 8,25K 16,5K 24,8K 33,0K Transactions The heat map shows in which regions occurred the higher volumes of transactions during the third quarter of the year. The JK region was the main highlight with big occupations in São Paulo Corporate Towers Torre Sul. Vila Olímpia also had good results with the occupation of a big coworking company. Chucri Zaidan also caught some attention with the occupation of a important company from the consumer goods sector. 05
SUBMARKET NUMBER OF BUILDINGS INVENTORY (.000 sqm) AVAILABLE AREA (.000 sqm) VACANCY RATE NET ABSORPTION (Q3) NET ABSORPTION (ANNUAL) UNDER CONSTRUCTI ON* ASKING RENT (ALL CLASSES) ASKING RENT (CLASS AA+) Paulista 16 271.6 38.7 14.2% (2,476.0) 8,947.7 9,314 84.5 116.6 Pinheiros 18 271.1 35.7 13.2% 11,358.0 454.0-66.9 85.5 Faria Lima 25 441.4 68.4 15.5% 762.7 15,342.3 22,150 110.9 136.4 Itaim 4 72.6 2.7 3.7% (2,669.7) (1,224.9) - 68.5 170.0 Vila Olimpia 16 222.2 31.9 14.4% 18,151.6 23,297.1 8,000 79.4 116.2 Berrini 10 298.6 65.0 21.8% 4,802.2 21,907.8-75.9 90.7 Chac. Sto. Antonio 18 242.0 121.9 50.4% 909.0 (1,673.1) - 62.2 69.7 Marginal Pinheiros 20 200.8 58.0 28.9% 8,940.1 16,825.2 24,000 50.5 57.3 Chucri Zaidan 25 664.7 167.5 25.2% 19,357.0 39,808.0-86.0 92.6 JK 12 336.4 46.3 13.8% 21,564.0 33,300.5-115.9 128.9 Santo Amaro 8 113.5 74.9 66.0% - (647.8) - 49.7 56.4 TOTAL CLASSE AA+ CBD Classe AA+ 172 3,134.7 710.8 22.7% 80,698.9 156,336.8 63,464 75.0 90.4 *We consider "Under Construction" buildings with delivery scheduled until 3Q 2021 Main Transactions Q3 2018 BUILDING SQM TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBMARKET EZ Towers Torre B 5,583 Marsh & Mclennan Lease Chucri Zaidan Lead Corporate Faria Lima 4,502 WeWork Lease Faria Lima Parque da Cidade Corporate Torre Sucupira 4,502 Willis Towers Weatson Lease Chucri Zaidan Edfício Morumbi 3,114 Uber Lease Chucri Zaidan Praça Faria Lima 2,687 Grupo Boticário Lease Faria Lima 06
REGIONS CBD Marginal Pinheiros Pinheiros Paulista Faria Lima Itaim Bibi JK Vila Olímpia Berrini Chucri Zaidan Chác. Sto Antônio Santo Amaro Jadson Mendes Andrade Head of Market Research & Business Intelligence South America jadson.andrade@sa.cushwake.com Bruno Suguimoto Coordinator of Market Research & Business Intelligence South America Bruno.Suguimoto@cushwake.com About is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. Our 45,000 employees in more than 70 countries help investors and occupiers optimize the value of their real estate by combining our global perspective and deep local knowledge with an impressive platform of real estate solutions. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenue of $6 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant representation, and valuation & advisory. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter. 7