The Seattle MD Apartment Market Report Volume 17 Issue 1, June 2017 Apartments Peaking? Seattle has been experiencing a remarkably strong apartment market in recent years, demonstrated by: record inmigration, record low vacancy rates, and record year over year rent increases. But even with all of these mind blowing highwater marks is it still reasonable to believe that we have more and higher peaks ahead? Looking forward at the near term the answer is probably not. In 2009 vacancy rates began been falling, reaching their lowest point in the summer 2016. However, we ve reached an inflection point this summer as both summer and winter vacancy levels have increased each period since then. We see a similar inflection point for population and jobs. Both population and jobs reached a high water mark in 2016. However 2017 both increased, but at lower levels than 2016. Vacancies bottoming out in 2016 and increasing in 2017 illustrate a critical point. This inflection point no doubt signals what could be a fundamental shift in the market. In addition, it appears that employment growth is beginning to moderate and we expect population growth will follow the employment pattern, however slightly delayed. Vacancies are expected to rise as new construction completions impact the market through 2017 and into 2018 and 2019. In turn, rent increases will slow down in magnitude. Expect to see concessions by Winter 2017/2018. The Seattle MD has come round the bend. We can expect to have above average growth, but the supply of apartments is catching up to demand. The next two years will test the strength of the market. ~ Brian O Connor, MAI, CRE Seattle MD Two Year Apartment Market Summary June 2017 Seattle Bellevue Everett Vacancy History Mid Year 2016 Seattle Bellevue Everett Vacancy Forecast % Vacant Year End 2017 2 Year Demand Year End 2016 Mid Year 2018 2 Year Supply S/D Net Mid Year 2017 Seattle 1.7% 2.9% 2. Eastside 2. 4. 2.7% Southend 1. 2.8% 3. Snohomish 1. 3. 3. Metro Total 2.7% 3.1% 2.7% Year End 2018 Seattle 3. 2.5% 3.9% Eastside 2.8% 2.3% 3.3% Southend 2. 2. 2.7% Snohomish 2.5% 2. 2.1% Metro Total 2.9% 2.5% 3. 2 Yr. Vac. Rate** Seattle 2.5% 9,451 13,109 3,658 4. Eastside 2.7% 3,845 5,320 1,475 4. Southend 3. 1,183 1,682 499 3.5% Snohomish 3. 1,183 848 335 2.8% Metro Total 2.7% 15,663 20,959 5,296 3.
Table of Contents Vacancy Forecast...1 Vacancy Forecast Charts...1 Vacancy...2 Employment Forecast...3 Population Demographic...3 Supply and Demand...4 Rental Rate Forecast...4 Map of Apartment Projects in Lease Up in June 2017...6 Map of Apartment Projects Under Construction in June 2017...7 Under Construction Map...8 The graphs below illustrate our vacancy forecast for each of the four primary Puget Sound markets. Through year end 2019 we forecast vacancies will increase slightly in the Seattle and Bellevue sub markets to 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively while the Vacancy Forecast Seattle Vacancy Forecast 2. 2.7% 2.5% 2. 2. Southend and Snohomish submarkets will continue to remain low to very low at 2.8% and 2.1%, respectively. However vacancy rates across the Seattle MD will likely not exceed 5%, demonstrating strong demand for the area. 3.1% 3. 3.1% 3.3% The Seattle Apartment Market Report is a publication of the O Connor Consulting Group, a Seattle based real estate appraisal and consulting firm specializing in mixed use multifamily and commercial property valuation and consultation. For more information regarding these services please contact Brian O Connor, MAI, CRE at 206 622 5100 Eastside Vacancy Forecast 2. 2.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2. 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% Southend Vacancy Forecast The Seattle Apartment Market Report is edited by: Judah Travis, Associate 2.5% 2. 2.5% 2. 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Snohomish Vacancy Forecast 2.5% 2.5% 2. 2. 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2. 2.1%
Starting in 2019, vacancy will increase as supply levels gently edge toward demand, demonstrating rates around 3. to 3.5% across the MD. In 2016 and 2017, we saw production starts as a response to increased demand, however tension will not ease until this inventory begins to impact the market in the second half of 2018. This preceding dearth of inventory will send vacancy rates as low as 2.5% by mid 2018 before rising in 2019. Puget Sound Apartment Market Vacancy Seattle Bellevue Everett MD Vacancy Forecast 5% 3% 1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8% 3. 3. 3. 3.5% PUGET SOUND APARTMENT MARKET June 2017 Vacancy Survey SEATTLE SNOHOMISH COUNTY Units Vac % Units Vac % Ballard 2,335 79 3. Arlington 267 12 4.5% Beacon Hill 802 7 0.9% Bothell/Mill Creek/Canyon Park 3,630 132 3. Belltown 5,152 173 3. Edmonds 1,187 54 4.5% Capitol Hill 2,168 49 2.3% Everett 10,165 328 3. Central 991 21 2.1% Lynnwood 7,280 224 3.1% Delridge 1,888 74 3.9% Lake Stevens 624 0 0. Downtown 1,335 39 2.9% Marysville 1,018 40 3.9% First Hill 2,359 77 3.3% Monroe 222 1 0.5% Fremont, Wallingford, Greenlake 1,079 38 3.5% Mountlake Terrace 1,371 25 1.8% Greenwood 917 4 0. Mukilteo 1,550 36 2.3% Interbay 359 5 1. Snohomish 152 3 2. Lake City 1,288 25 1.9% Subtotal 27,466 855 3.1% Lake Forest Park 279 4 1. Lake Union 3,645 87 2. SOUTHEND Magnolia 337 1 0.3% Northgate 2,321 48 2.1% Units Vac % Pioneer Square & Intrl District 1,189 32 2.7% Algona/Pacific 349 18 5. Queen Anne 2,266 51 2.3% Auburn 2,414 65 2.7% Rainier Valley 1,009 29 2.9% Burien 1,560 59 3.8% Ravenna/Sand Point 689 12 1.7% Des Moines 775 19 2.5% Shoreline 1,118 23 2.1% Enumclaw 219 4 1.8% University District 2,074 43 2.1% Federal Way 9,310 260 2.8% West Seattle 1,582 33 2.1% Kent 8,873 269 3. Subtotal 37,182 954 2. Renton 8,956 317 3.5% Seatac 1,884 52 2.8% Seattle Core 19,105 529 2.8% Tukwila 1,079 6 0. Subtotal 35,419 1,069 3. EASTSIDE PIERCE COUNTY Units Vac % Units Vac % Downtown Bellevue 4,070 111 2.7% Fife/Milton 1,563 13 0.8% Suburban Bellevue 7,285 180 2.5% Fircrest/University/Dupont/Steilacoom 1,476 26 1.8% Issaquah 2,104 44 2.1% Gig Harbor 851 6 0.7% Kenmore/Bothell/Woodinville 2,440 89 3. Lakewood 2,194 64 2.9% Kirkland 4,979 178 3. Puyallup/Sumner 5,164 105 2. Mercer Island 1,452 36 2.5% Tacoma 10,170 217 2.1% Newcastle 401 10 2.5% Downtown Tacoma 891 25 2.8% North Bend 309 11 3. Subtotal 22,309 456 2. Redmond 5,697 108 1.9% Sammamish 853 19 2. Summary by County/MD (Weighted) Snoqualmie 120 2 1.7% County Subtotal 29,710 788 2.7% Vacancy King 2.7% Snohomish 3.1% Pierce 2. Seattle Bellevue Everett MD 2.8% Source: O'Connor Consulting Group, LLC Region 2.7%
While the Seattle MD continues to rise as a national and international employment destination, we forecast job growth will continue for the near term, however at more moderate increases than recently seen. In 2016, the Seattle MD added more than 51,500 new jobs. For 2017 we expect to see an increase of more than 44,000 new jobs when final revised figures are reported in March 2018. This Employment Forecast level of growth has not been seen since the early 90s boom. Looking forward, economists Dick Conway and Doug Pederson predict employment growth to slow in 2018 to approximately 1.6, and 1.09% in 2019. While primary influencers like Amazon, Facebook, Google, and a many other companies increase employment in the region, growth is expected but difficult to predict, as expansions are announced in fits and starts. During the second half of 2017, each major announcement added an additional 2,500 to 3,000 employees at developments like the Dexter 111 in South Lake Union for Facebook, the Vulcandeveloped campus for Google by 2019, and Rainier Center expansion for Amazon in 2020. The Seattle Bellevue Everett MD population is driven by strong employment growth, explained above. In 2016 the MD population grew by 67,560 representing the largest increase in population seen in the last 40 years and 45,000 in 2017. Looking forward, we expect population will likely not be as dramatic, at 40,341 and 34,939, respectively. Seattle s population has grown at nearly double the rate of Silicon Valley, Population Demographic led by strong job growth in fields like tech and healthcare, a relatively lower cost of living, and lifestyle benefits of the Northwest. In contrast, Seattle s housing prices, rental rates, and commute times while increasing are a relative bargain, compared to San Francisco. Migration rates and patters are sensitive to both local economic conditions as well as economic conditions elsewhere and the pattern of future netmigration is principally based on expectations for future job growth. Strong job formation rates within the Seattle MD are the underpinnings of net inmigration, whereas job losses or slower growth rates relative to other regions in the country will tend to lead to net outmigration from those areas. Below, the historical relationship between migration and employment is presented from 1975 to 2017, as well as our 2018 and 2019 forecast. 80,000 Net Migration vs. Net Employment Growth 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Net Migration Net New Jobs
The table below illustrates our forecast for both apartment supply and demand within each major submarket in the MD from June 2017 through Q3 2019. By the end of Q3 2019, supply will overcome demand, pushing vacancies higher, resulting in a projected vacancy rate of 3. in the Seattle MD. While there is a significant amount of new supply coming online, demand should remain strong throughout this forecast period. As supply equilibrates to demand through Q3 2019, we forecast vacancies will increase in the Seattle and Bellevue Supply and Demand Summary sub markets to 3.3% and 3.5%. The Southend and Snohomish submarkets will continue to remain low to very low, at 2.8% and 2.1% respectively. These sub markets have historically very low supply and increasing demand, as Seattle Core renters disperse to further distances seeking out lower rents. Our estimate of new multi family supply comes from a survey of all units currently in lease up, projects under construction, and known projects in their pre development stage. To gauge the number of units in the pipeline, we track all multifamily building permits, physically inspect the permitted sites, and reconfirm the number of units and the property type (apartment or condominium). This information was calculated for each of the four major markets within the Seattle metropolitan area. In the table below, supply and demand are displayed by the number of units over the next two years, as well as the corresponding vacancy rate. We expect supply to be slightly higher than demand with a difference of 5,296 units. Seattle Metro Two Year Apartment Market Summary June 17 Market Size % Vacant No. Vacant 2 Year Demand 2 Year Supply S/D Net 2 Yr Mkt Size 2 Yr Vac Rate** Total Vacant Seattle 199,177 2.5% 4,880 9,451 13,109 3,658 212,286 4. 8,558 Eastside 83,757 2.7% 2,221 3,845 5,320 1,475 89,077 4. 3,942 Southend 106,685 3. 3,220 1,183 1,682 499 108,367 3.5% 3,825 Snohomish 97,505 3. 2,943 1,183 848 335 98,353 2.8% 2,785 MD* 487,124 2.7% 13,264 15,663 20,959 5,296 508,083 3. 18,056 *Weighted Average **Two Year Vacancy rate is 3rd Quarter 2019 The Seattle MD continues to experience historic year over year apartment rental rate increases. In the first half of 2017, average rent increased 7.9% over the previous year. Looking forward, we believe that rent growth will continue to increase, albeit, at a more moderate pace throughout the Seattle MD due to additional available inventory coming online and an increase in vacancies. During 2018 we expect to see rents increase by 5.3% in the Seattle MD, below the mid 2017 level of 5., and to increase only by 3. into 2020. In certain markets with more limited supply, we expect the rent growth to be somewhat stronger than in the areas with a large amount of supply. Please refer to the table below for our annual rent growth estimates broken down by submarket. Rental Rate Forecast Average Rent Seattle Bellevue Everett MD 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mid 2017 Seattle $1,432 $1,491 $1,557 $1,680 $1,771 Eastside $1,401 $1,544 $1,636 $1,704 $1,790 Southend $920 $1,143 $1,091 $1,397 $1,156 Snohomish $1,129 $1,203 $1,300 $1,397 $1,460 Metro $1,220 $1,345 $1,396 $1,469 $1,544 Rental Growth Forecast Seattle Bellevue Everett MD 2017 2018 2019 2020 Seattle $1,432 $1,491 $1,557 $1,680 Eastside $1,401 $1,544 $1,636 $1,704 Southend $920 $1,143 $1,091 $1,397 Snohomish $1,129 $1,203 $1,300 $1,397 Metro $1,220 $1,345 $1,396 $1,469
This map displays apartment properties in lease up at the end of June, 2017. By mapping the locations of each project it clearly illustrates the geographic distribution of supply. The Seattle MD as a whole represents 92 apartment projects and more than 12,000 units under leaseup. When looking at the map of the entire Seattle MD, the reader can see that the vast majority of projects currently under construction are in the Seattle submarket. Within the Seattle submarket, the projects are focused in the Seattle Core and the surrounding neighborhoods. On the next page we have mapped projects under construction. Map of Apartment Projects In Lease Up in June 2017 Stabilized Yes No
This map a representative sample of apartment projects under construction as if June, 2017. By mapping the locations of each project it we can see the geographic distribution of supply is similar to the map of the projects in lease up. When looking at the map of the entire Seattle MD, the vast majority of projects currently under construction are in the Seattle submarket. Within the Seattle submarket, the projects are focused in the Seattle Core and the surrounding neighborhoods. The map represents 104 properties and 18,463 units under construction. The Seattle submarket has 6 or 11,336 of those units. The Seattle core has 25%, or 4,703, of all the units under construction throughout the MD. As we move into the future, development continues to be focused on Seattle, as we have shown that a good majority of new renters are interested in living in the city of Seattle. What we must look for as developments progress, is the pull that the Eastside will exhibit on new renters, and if the supply demand struggle will shift as more renters seek less expensive, or larger, or simply more convenient living options outside of Seattle on the Eastside. Map of Apartment Projects Under Construction in June 2017
For more information on services offered by the O Connor Consulting Group, LLC please contact Brian O Connor, MAI, CRE (206) 622-5100 ocgp.com