Real estate prices bottom, but remain stagnant United States Index 2000Q4 = 100 200 180 Commercial RE prices 160 140 House prices 120 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Sources: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv, Moody's Investors Service, Moody s Analytics. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Construction put-in-place United States Percent change, year ago 30 20 10 Residential 0-10 -20-30 Nonresidential -40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Analytics.
Construction put-in-place By non-residential sub-sector Percent change, year ago 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 Commercial Office Lodging -80 2003 2004 Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Analytics. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Commercial real estate valuation and delinquency trends Index December 2000=100 200 150 Price Index (L) Percent 10 8 6 100 50 Delinquency rate (R) 4 2 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-2 Sources: Moody's Investors Service, Moody s Analytics.
Moody s Real Commercial Property Price Index By property sector Index Q4 2000=100 200 180 160 140 Industrial Retail Apartments 120 100 Office 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: Moody's Investors Service, Moody s Analytics.
NCREIF Property Index returns Recent returns by property sector Percent 10 5 0-5 -10-15 2002 2003 Apartments Retail Industrial Office Hotels 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), Moody s Analytics.
Office space supply and demand United States Thous., sq. ft. 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Net absorption (L) Completions (L) Vacancy rates (R) *Forecast 16.8% 16.6% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0% 15.8% 0 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 *Q1 2011 *Q2 2011 *Q3 2011 *Q4 2011 *Q1 2012 15.6% Source: National Association of Realtors, CBRE Econometric Advisors.
Industrial space supply and demand United States Thous., sq. ft Net absorption (L) Completions (L) Vacancy rates (R) 50,000 *Forecast 40,000 14.5% 14.0% 30,000 13.5% 20,000 13.0% 10,000 12.5% 0 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 *Q1 2011 *Q2 2011 *Q3 2011 *Q4 2011 *Q1 2012 12.0% Source: National Association of Realtors, CBRE Econometric Advisors.
Retail space supply and demand United States Thous., sq. ft Net absorption (L) Completions (L) Vacancy rates (R) 2,500 *Forecast 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 13.2% 13.1% 13.0% 12.9% 0 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 *Q1 2011 *Q2 2011 *Q3 2011 *Q4 2011 *Q1 2012 12.8% Source: National Association of Realtors, CBRE Econometric Advisors.
Multi-family space supply and demand United States Sq. ft. 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0-20,000 Net absorption (L) Completions (L) Vacancy rates (R) *Forecast Q3 2010 Q4 2010 *Q1 2011 *Q2 2011 *Q3 2011 *Q4 2011 *Q1 2012 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% -40,000 Source: National Association of Realtors, CBRE Econometric Advisors. 0.0%
Vacancy rates By property sector Percent 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Office Retail Apartment 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: REIS, Mortgage Bankers Association.
Average asking rents By property sector $/sq. ft. 35 $/month 1,100 30 25 Office (L) 1,050 1,000 20 15 Retail (L) Apartment (R) 950 900 10 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 850 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, REIS.
Delinquency rates By property type Percent 20 Hotel 15 10 Multifamily Industrial Retail 5 Office 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: Moody's Investors Service, Moody's Analytics.
Capitalization rates By property type Percent 10 9 8 7 6 Office Industrial Retail Multifamily 5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: American Council of Life Insurers, Moody's Analytics.
Sales of commercial properties over $5 million By property sector US$ billions 160 140 Office Retail 120 Industrial 100 Apartment 80 60 40 20 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Mortgage Bankers Association.
Mortgage Bankers Origination Index 2001 quarterly avg = 100 US$ millions 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association. Avg Loan Size (R) Mortgage Bankers Origination Index (L) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 15 10 5 0
New private housing units authorized by permits United States Millions of units 1.8 Thousands of units 600 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 5 or more units (R) 500 400 300 0.8 0.6 0.4 Single-family units (L) 200 100 0.2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.
CMBS Issuances US$ billions $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Sources: Commercial Real Estate Direct, Mortgage Bankers Association.
Basis Points CMBS spreads 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: TreppWire.
Commercial and industrial loans Loans at all commercial banks Compound annual growth rate 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Moody s Analytics.
Top 10 markets by smallest change in vacancy rates Metro Q1 2010 (%) YOY Chg (bps) San Jose 4.5-110 New Haven-Fairfield County 4.6-70 New York City 2.8-60 Sacramento 7.4-40 Denver 8.3-30 Tucson 11.4-30 Philadelphia 6.3 0 Washington, DC 6.0 0 Boston 6.5 10 San Diego 4.8 10 Average 8.0 60 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, REIS, MBA
Top 10 markets by greatest change in vacancy rates Metro Q1 2010 (%) YOY Chg (bps) Dallas- Fort Worth 10.6 270 Las Vegas 11.5 270 Houston 12.9 240 Charlotte 10.6 170 Kansas City 10.3 170 Indianapolis 10.0 160 Salt Lake City 7.0 160 Columbus 9.5 120 Oklahoma City 10.1 120 Orlando 11.5 120 Average 8.0 60 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, REIS, MBA
Interest rates Fed funds rate vs. 10-year bond yield Percent 6 5 10-year T-note yield 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Federal funds rate 2009 2010 2011 Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.
Real gross domestic product United States Compound annual growth rate 10 5 0-5 -10 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
Job market showing modest improvement Non-farm employment, United States Percent change, year ago 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0 Difference from previous month Absolute change, ths. (R) 600 400 200 0-200 -400-4.0 % change (L) -600-800 -6.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1000 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
Consumer Sentiment Index University of Michigan Index 1966Q1= 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, University of Michigan, Moody s Analytics.
Headline CPI inflation gaining momentum Overall vs. core Consumer Price Index Percent change, year ago 6.0 4.0 Overall 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Less food and energy 10 11 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Dow Jones Equity REIT Index Total Return Index, Jan-90=100 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: Moody s Analytics.
Real Estate Investment Trusts Net acquisition of financial assets US$ billions 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: Federal Reserve, IHS Global Insight.
REIT issuance Common equity and unsecured debt Sources: NAREIT, MP3 Capital Partners.
REIT IPO Performance 2009 2011 Company IPO Price ($) YOY Change IPO Change IPO Date Hyatt 25-4.68% 74.48% Nov-09 Pebblebrook 20 6.35% 8.05% Dec-09 Chesapeake 20-9.04% -14.45% Jan-10 Piedmont 14.5-2.04% 36.07% Feb-10 Terrino 20-6.92% -16.55% Feb-10 Chatham 20-5.10% -18.15% Apr-10 Excel 14-3.97% -17.00% Apr-10 Hudson Pacific 17-5.12% -16.00% Jun-10 Whitestone 12-3.35% 19.20% Aug-10 CoreSite 16 13.34% -3.37% Sep-10 Campus Crest 12.5-20.90% 11.28% Oct-10 American Assets 20.5 n/a 5.76% Jan-11 Summit Hotel 9.74 n/a 5.13% Feb-11 Preferred Apt 9.75 n/a -2.40% Mar-11 STAG Industrial 13 n/a -6.62% Apr-11 Source: NAREIT: IPO Rundown 2011
2011 Equity REIT IPO Candidates according to NAREIT Company Industry S-11 Filed Size ($ml) Inland Western Retail (IWST) Retail 14-Feb-11 350 Schottenstein Realty Trust (SCRT) Retail 13-Apr-11 500 RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) Hotel 13-Apr-11 550 NAREIT Shadow Candidates: CenterPoint Properties Archstone Hilton Equity Office Malkin Stonehenge Morgan Healthcare Trust of America Moinian Group Industrial Apartments Lodging Office Office Commercial Hotel Medical Commercial Source: National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts
Homebuilder Stock Performance SNL Homebuilders Index Homebuilder TOTAL RETURN (%) Week of April 21 Month Q1 YOY Symbol Beazer Homes 7.1 3.8-13.3-20.9 BZH Brookfield -5.4 na na na BRP Comstock -3-5.2 1.6-32.6 CHCI DR Horton 5.1-1 -5.2-6.4 DHI Hovnanian 7.9-6.1-20.3-44 HOV KB Home 1.9-14.5-22.5-34.4 KBH Lennar 4.2-4.6-2.9 3.1 LEN MDC Holdings 4.4 5.3-7.4-18.1 MDC M/I Homes 1.6-3.9-8.5-17.1 MHO Meritage 3.6 1.4 11.5 20.6 MTH NVR -4.1-4.4-7.1-3 NVR Pulte 1.6 8.1-5.7-33.9 PHM Ryland 8 2.6-0.09-26.7 RYL Standard Pacific 2.4-0.05-16 -33.9 SPF Toll Brothers 1.7-3.2-0.02-6.3 TOL
Mortgage REITs Registration Statements on File with SEC TMAC Mortgage Capital Provident Putnam Mortgage Pimco REIT Apollo Residential American Capital AG Mortgage Investment Raise ($Millions) 0 200 400 600 Sources: Wall Street Journal; Securities Exchange Commission
United States Home Ownership Rate 1965-2011 Source: National Association of Realtors
Median Price of an Existing Home 2007-2011 Source: National Association of Realtors
Total Annual Existing Home Sales 2007-2011 Source: National Association of Realtors
Existing Home Sales Median Price Change Percentage Change 2010-2011 Source: National Association of Realtors
Existing Home Sales Percentage Change 2010-2011 Source: National Association of Realtors
Regional Existing Home Sales 2010-2011 Source: National Association of Realtors
National Housing Inventory 2011 Number of Months of Supply Source: National Association of Realtors
Existing Home Sales 2011 Sales by Price Range Source: National Association of Realtors
Existing Home Sales by Price Range Percentage Change 2010-2011 Source: National Association of Realtors
The Employment Picture Bureau of Labor Statistics latest report The US unemployment rate declined from 8.9 percent in February to 8.8 percent in March. 34 states saw a decline in the unemployment rate in this month with New Mexico, Florida, and Nevada seeing the largest fall. The unemployment rate was unchanged in 9 states and DC. In March, North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota had the lowest unemployment rates all under 5%. Rhode Island, Florida, California, and Nevada had the highest rates among the 50 states and DC.
The Employment Picture Bureau of Labor Statistics latest report 38 states had positive job growth in March Average job growth was 0.1%. The greatest job growth in March was in Missouri, while Maine had the largest job decline. Moving forward, increasing labor force participation may keep the unemployment rate high even as jobs are being added.