November 2018 Housing Health Report Housing supply outlook suggests market high is leveling off For the first time since 2011, new and existing housing supply experiences blanket declines. 2018 activity may suggest a softening of the housing market. Commercial construction experiences similar downward movement, validating residential data trends. THE LEADING PROVIDER OF PROPERTY CONDITION AND HISTORY DATA.
NEW HOUSING SUPPLY Single-family housing authorizations decreased 0.58 percent from October to November 2018. Year over year, November single-family housing authorizations decreased 0.86 percent. This is the second consecutive month that housing authorizations declined. However, the trailing three-month outlook (September to November 2018) compared to last year is still ticking upwards at 3.68 percent, buoyed by September growth. EXISTING HOUSING SUPPLY Existing housing maintenance and remodeling, which encompass work on existing structures, also saw decreases across volume and spend. In November 2018, maintenance volume decreased at a year-over-year rate of 5.85 percent, while maintenance spend decreased 15.39 percent. Existing remodel volume and spend a subset of maintenance that includes renovations, additions and alterations decreased at a year-over-year rate of 12 percent and 1.15 percent respectively in November. 0.86% Y/Y Decrease SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING AUTHORIZATIONS 0.58% M/M Decrease THOUSAND OF UNITS 10K 9K 8K 7K 6K 5K 4K 3K 2K 1K a+78+80+88+90+87+85 30+31+34+36+33+32 5.85% EXISTING MAINTENANCE AND REMODEL VOLUME Y/Y Decrease in Maintenance 12.00% Y/Y Decrease in Remodeling OCT 2016 NOV 2016 OCT 2017 NOV 2017 OCT 2018 NOV 2018 November 2018 2
More so now than in years prior, the compounding effects of natural disasters, scarcity in the construction labor market and recent tariffs have impacted housing growth not to mention systemic factors, like rising mortgage rates, that influence consumer behavior. While it s natural to see some leveling off after steep growth, the next few months will be telling; whether a downturn is on the horizon or the market is simply softening is yet to be seen. JONATHAN KANAREK, COO, BUILDFAX November 2018 3
HOUSING MARKET DECLINES Over the past decade, BuildFax has found 10 instances where single-family housing authorizations, maintenance and remodels declined year over year eight of the 10 occurred in 2008 and 2009 at the height of the Great Recession. The first was in May 2008, six months after the recession first began, but four months before the stock market crashed. The November 2018 instance of blanket declines was the first since 2011, when the economy was still in a period of recovery. Since 2011, housing activity has skyrocketed. Single-family housing authorizations alone increased 105.2 percent while maintenance activity jumped 41.27 percent in the last seven years. Although the U.S. housing market has seen steady increases over the last seven years, recent declines in new and existing housing supply point to a slowing on the horizon. This has been particularly evident in the last year, suggesting the market may plateau or see a longer period of decline. The next few months will provide a better indication of how the housing market will trend in 2019. INSTANCES OF BLANKET DECLINES IN HOUSING ACTIVITY SINCE 2007 10K, MAINTENANCE REMODELS AUTHORIZATIONS DECLINES ACROSS NEW AND EXISTING HOUSING SUPPLY ACTIVITY THE GREAT RECESSION VOLUME 9K 8K 7K 6K 5K 4K 3K 2K 1K 0 California has experienced the highest ADU volumes since October 2016. 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 DEC 07 MAY 08 AUG 08 OCT 08 JAN 08 JUN 09 OCT 10 APR 11 NOV 18 November 2018 4
SPOTLIGHT: COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION TRENDS The decline in the housing market isn t consigned to the residential sector. This month, the commercial construction market saw decreases, albeit subdued, in new and existing supply. New commercial construction volumes dipped 0.87 percent year over year, while commercial maintenance and remodel activity decreased 1.5 percent and 4.28 percent, respectively. Although November declines suggest commercial construction growth may taper off over the next few months, construction activity has seen substantial increases over the last five years. Construction spend in particular has experienced dramatic movement. New construction activity rose 28.42 percent between 2013 and 2018, while spend, which is often underreported, rose 68.83 percent in that same time frame. Meanwhile, maintenance saw a 22.21 percent jump in activity between 2013 and 2018 while cost rose 43.71 percent. These disproportional increases in construction cost compared to volume point to a labor shortage in the commercial construction market. BuildFax research aligns with recent findings from the Commercial Construction Index that revealed construction managers and builders have cited difficulties in finding skilled labor this year. 1 In light of the labor shortage and increased demand for commercial construction, it s clear there are systemic factors causing declines in year-over-year commercial construction activity. FIVE-YEAR GROWTH IN THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR EXISTING HOUSING SUPPLY NEW HOUSING SUPPLY VOLUME COST VOLUME COST 22+44+28+69 22.21% 28.42% 43.71% 68.83% 1 USG Corporation and U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Commercial Construction Index. (2018.) November 2018 5
ABOUT BUILDFAX BuildFax, headquartered in Austin, Texas, is trusted by the largest insurance and financial institutions in the world to deliver business-critical property condition and history data. With the only database of its kind encompassing more than 23 billion data points on commercial and residential structures, BuildFax delivers detailed data on remodeling, solar installations, new construction, roof age, major systems, maintenance history and more. METHODOLOGY BuildFax conducted this study by examining properties in the U.S. between the years 2008 and 2018. The statistics in this report are calculated using sampled data from across the U.S. All data is seasonally adjusted and imputed to reflect numbers representative of the entire country. Due to historical revisions made by permitting authorities, the data is subject to change. Estimates are as of December 8, 2018. Learn more about our property condition and history data at BuildFax.com November 2018 6