PRAGUE RESIDENTIAL MARKET 2018 vizualizace: Viladomy Poštovka
LEXXUS Quiz Jaroslav Žahourek Immo Leasing Martin Kušmirek Immo Leasing Petr Kouřil Investor s representative Byty Čelákovice Favorite part of Prague? Vinohrady Strašnice P9 - Klánovice View or (front) garden? view garden garden House or apartment? apartment house house Centre or suburb? centre suburb suburb Own housing or rent? own own own The annual comparison: 06/2017 06/2018 +1,4 % +11,6 % +81,6 % Number of inhabitants 1 301 132 (1 282 496) Launched housing units in apartment buildings 1 141 (1 022) Housing units sold in apartment buildings 2 452 (1 350) -24,7 % -5,7 % +9,7 % Unemployment 2,16 % (2,87 %) Housing units completed in apartment buildings 2 214 (2 348) Average wage 39 688 (36 194) Compleated apartments At present, the number of apartments in apartment buildings in Prague is gradually increasing since 2016, when the historical minimum (522 apartments under construction) was reached. In the first half of 2018, construction of 1,141 apartments was commenced, but this number is still insufficient. In the first half of 2018, a total of 2,871 apartments were completed in Prague. Only in apartment buildings 2,214 apartments were completed, in family houses 298 apartments. The number of completed apartments is virtually stagnating since 2015 and due to a few s of low number of apartments under construction, they can be expected to decline. In order for the capital to meet the demand of the growing population for housing, it is necessary to complete 5,500 new apartments each. Over the past ten s, the deficit in the number of new apartments has increased to more than 14,000 apartments due to insufficient construction. The number of completed apartments in -on- comparison decreased in Prague by 2.6%, while in the Czech Republic we recorded an increase of 16.6%. On the nationwide result of 14,913 completed apartments, Prague accounted for 19.3%. The nationwide comparison is still dominated by the construction of family houses over the construction of apartments in apartment buildings. In the first half of this, the number of completed units in family houses was 66% of the total housing development. Considerable growth of residential construction is hindered by insufficient preparedness of residential projects, due to the considerable length and complexity of permitting processes.
STAETED AND COMPLETED APARTMENTS IN RESIDENTIAL HOUSES IN PRAGUE FOR THE FIRST HALF 2007-2018 Number of apartments 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Compleated apartments Launched apartments Source: ČSÚ Demand Demand for new housing has nearly matched the situation for the past three months to the s of 2015 and 2016 when the residential market was at its peak. At that time, around 1,600 to 1,700 units were sold quarterly. In the first quarter of this it was only 1,200 units, while in the second quarter the number of sold apartments increased significantly, by more than one fifth. 1,550 apartments were sold. Supply of new apartments The supply of new apartments in Prague increased by 150 units over the three months to 4,350 at the end of June. Year-on-, the offer increased by 20 percent, mainly due to the start of the sale of several larger projects with more than 100 residential units in Prague 5, 8, and 9. The number of offered apartments oscillates around the level of 4,000 units since mid-2016. In half-, 4,350 apartments were on the market. Four s ago, a supply of 7,000 units was available in the same period. Subsequently, however, it began to decline significantly. Prices In the first half of this, the supply prices for apartments in Prague grew by 7.2%, while last the increase was 11.6% in the same period. (source CSO) At the end of June, the -on- increase was 20.7%. Year-on- prices grew most in Prague 1 and Prague 10, by 25.9 percent, respectively. Prices in Prague 6 stagnated. The rise in prices of apartments in new buildings is higher than that of older apartments. One reason for this trend is the fact that there are by more than a third less new apartments than older ones.
PRICES OF APARTMENTS IN PRAGUE + AVERAGE WAGE (INDEX, 2010 = 100%) 170 40 000 165 160 38 000 155 150 36 000 145 140 34 000 (index, 2010 = 100%) 135 130 125 120 115 110 32 000 30 000 28 000 wage (CZK/month) 105 100 26 000 95 90 24 000 85 80 22 000 75 06.2005 12.2005 06.2006 12.2006 06.2007 12.2007 06.2008 12.2008 06.2009 12.2009 06.2010 12.2010 06.2011 12.2011 06.2012 12.2012 06.2013 12.2013 06.2014 12.2014 06.2015 12.2015 06.2016 12.2016 06.2017 12.2017 06.2018 20 000 Source: ČSÚ Prague realized prices Prague offering prices Average monthly gross wages (CZK) Mortgage financing The interest rate rose slightly in July, since March of this to value of 2.5%. This, banks provided 9,650 less loans in the first half of the, and their volume fell by CZK 13.8 billion -on-. In July, 7,016 mortgage loan contracts were concluded. Compared to June this there were concluded more than 2,000 mortgage loans less. In July the volumes of negotiated loans also fell. In the month-on-month comparison, volumes fell by almost CZK 4 billion to CZK 15.386 billion. This July, interest in the mortgages is the smallest since January 2016, when only 5,912 mortgage loans were negotiated despite very low interest rates (2.064 %). As of October 1, the CNB, in its recommendations, introduces requirements on the amount of income of the applicant for a mortgage loan. It will not be possible to exceed the total amount of the mortgage applicant s total debt more than nine times its annual net income (the DTI indicator) and at the same time the monthly debt repayment must be less than 45 % of its net monthly income (DSTI indicator).
AVERAGE AMOUNT OF MORTGAGE LOAN FOR CITIZENS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC 0,0 0,5 amount of the mortgage loan in millions of CZK 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *2018 Source: Hypoindex * 1. - 6. month VOLUME OF MORTGAGE LOANS TO CITIZENS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC volume of mortgages in bilions of CZK 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *2018 Source: Hypoindex * 1. - 6. month THE NUMBER OF GRANTED MORTAGE LOANS TO CITIZENS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC number of loans 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 *2018 Source: Hypoindex * 1. - 6. month
AVERAGE INTEREST RATE ON MORTGAGE LOAN 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6 % 5 5 % 5 % 5,84% interest rate 4 5 % 4 % 3 5 % 3 % 2 5 % 2 % 1,77% 2,50% 1 5 % Source: Hypoindex How would you, in your view, outline the development of the residential real estate market in the last six months? The current residential market suffers from a complicated permitting process and a lack of suitable land, especially in Prague. The lack of new apartments leads logically to price increases. I m not saying anything surprising. However, I would not like to go into deeper analyzes, because there is no uniform methodology of data processing from the market, and the partial conclusions about the prices / number of apartments sold vary greatly depending on the sources. There is only hope of improving the situation. Financing residential development represents about 15% of our real estate financing activities. A substantially larger part is the financing of the office, retail, and logistics portfolio, both development as well as investment. Lenka Kostrounová Director of Real Estate Financing, ČSOB What impact do you think will have the CNB s further regulation of mortgage lending (planned for this October) on the residential market? The planned regulation, or rather the recommendation from the CNB, is likely to partially complicate the access to mortgage loan for some mortgage loan applicants with a view to tightening the LTV (or the recommendation of a limited mortgage loan with a higher LTV). Newly the amount of applicant s debt should not exceed nine times its annual net income (DTI indicator), and at the same time the applicant should spend a maximum of 45% of his monthly income (DSTI indicator) on a debt repayment. In my opinion, on the actual apartments market, the CNB s recommendations will not have much impact as more than 50% of the apartments are being sold without mortgage loan. Do you personally agree with those CNB regulations that have already entered into force? Yes, I agree - I believe that when buying a real estate the client should have around 20 to 25% of resources saved. At the same time, it is very risky to take such a high mortgage loan, which goes beyond repayment options. Currently, the economy is doing well, there is almost zero unemployment, but it does not have to be forever.
THE EYES OF DEVELOPER Currently, you have started the construction of a unique project of family houses in Košíře in Prague 5, called Viladomy Poštovka. What is so special about this project that impressed you? One of the main arguments in deciding about the realization of this project was the location. The project includes only six family houses. The architect chose a solution that respects the surrounding area, the houses follow the forest park, on the north side is in perspective a natural rock wall, in the southern direction is the prized Prague location CIBULKA. You collaborated on the project with the architectural studio ZONA architekti s.r.o.. How was your cooperation? It is always important for a developer and an architect to have some sense of consensus, and I think we have succeeded. Studio ZONA architekti s.r.o. has come to the project with a high level of commitment and a high level of professionalism. The Viladomy Poštovka project was our first collaboration, but I can already tell you that we are considering another collaboration on one of the other projects. Michal Švábenický project developer Viladomy Poštovka What are your expectations in the real estate market for the upcoming period? In the medium term, my expectations are fundamentally positive. I expect a greater diversification of the market, increased customer demands, the entry of new entities, and the overall market stabilization in most of its segments, i.e. not only in the residential area. How do you think the Prague residential real estate prices will be developing in the coming months? Prices of apartments and family houses in Prague have increased at a considerable pace in the past two s. The continuous growth has lasted for six s. Apartment and family house prices are influenced by a number of factors (debit, but also credit interest rates, inflation, legislative changes, GDP development, wage growth, population development, etc.). Personally, I expect Prague residential real estate prices to rise slightly in this as well as the following in most segments, but it can not be ruled out that in some segments growth will practically stop. In which areas of the Prague real estate market do you see space for development? Over the past decades, in a number of historically predominantly residential locations the apartment buildings have been transformed into office buildings. Now these objects are losing attractiveness and are unable to compete with modern office complexes. I consider the return to the original housing or mixed function (apartments, shops, services) to be a key area of development in a number of Prague central localities. Some of the originally Prague outskirt districts in which the industry was concentrated are now de facto the wider center of Prague; however, the quality of the housing development does not correspond. In close proximity to the city center, thus we can still see extensive dilapidated areas, buildings with minimal utility and historical value, warehouses, building yards, concrete plants. The first good sign is the gradual transformation of Karlín. Some parts of Holešovice begin to wake up. There are still large areas in Smíchov waiting for opportunity. I am convinced that these large sites cannot only be helped by the developers themselves, but that the city and the city districts have to enter the game, especially in the area of the preparation of the territory, the construction of the urban infrastructure, and the provision of transportation services to these territories. The development of many inner parts of Prague is limited by the (not) existence of capacities of urban communications (unfinished inner and outer ring roads), as well as the (not) existence of a backbone network of communications within urban areas. How do you perceive trends in housing in the Czech Republic compared to other European countries? From the point of view of architecture, material and technical solutions, user demands, etc., trends in the Czech Republic are very similar to trends in the surrounding European countries. A certain phenomenon is the prevalence of ownership housing in the Czech Republic. The offer of modern rental housing is very low. Many people perceive rental housing as a short-term, at most medium-term option to address their housing needs. In my opinion, there is a lack of legally and financially balanced.
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