Using census household data to inform purpose-built rental community development Selected slides presented to ULI- SFU event 1 Nov 2017 Wendy Waters Senior Director, Research Services & Strategy GWL Realty Advisors Twitter: @Wendy_Waters @GWLRA 1 November 2017 GWLRA RESEARCH
Introduction GWL Realty Advisors manages the real estate investments of pension funds & institutions GWLRA has approximately 12,000 rental units under management across the country; and another 2000 under development In Vancouver: Northwoods (newly complete); Robson Street (nearing construction); Lower Lonsdale (in process) Understanding who rents, and why, and what their priorities are is essential Use census data as one (of several) tools to understand renters Today: Using census housing data to profile future renters for a large, multi-phase, multi-building purpose-built rental project that was under consideration in Calgary, prior to the downturn 2
Need: to understand future renters to determine: unit mix, unit sizes, parking ratios, amenities, and later marketing. Also to plan phasing of this large project. Methodologies: Base: Census data on households Added: Focus Groups, surveys Past GWLRA experience (Calgary projects; elsewhere in Canada) Trends in US rental housing Consultant reports, including Urban Futures on migration trends and demographic forecasts RTKL Architecture psychographic profiles 3
GWLRA orders custom census cross-tabs to analyze housing markets in select metro areas and sub-regions across Canada. Geography Building Type Building Age Tenure HH Income HH Type Age of HH Maint ainer Occupation Bedrooms Vancouver Core, CSD & CMA & Burnaby All All All All All All All All Edmonton CSD Calgary CSD & CMA Ground Oriented Apt < 5 Storeys Calgary Beltline Apt > 5 storeys Kitchener CMA Apts <> 5 Storeys Toronto CSD & CMA & Mississauga Pre 2001 Owned $40K- $69K 2001-2006 2006-2011 Rented $70- $99K Singles 14-24 Management Studio/Bach Family no kids 25-34 Business, finance, Admin 1 Bedroom $100K+ Family with kids 35-44 Natural & Applied Science 2 Bedrooms Averag e 2 + non family (roommates) 45-54 Health Average No. Other 55-64 Education, law, social, community & gov t Toronto Core 65-74 Art, culture, recreation, sport Ottawa CSD, CMA 75-84 Sales & service Montreal CMA 84+ Trades, transport, equipment op Halifax CSD, CMA Victoria (CSD, CRD & West Shore (Langford & Colwood, etc.) Natural resources, agriculture 4
Age and mobility status provided a preliminary look at who renters in our project might be 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Calgary CSD. Renters of new construction apartments/condos, 2011 Census. All incomes. Most likely already in Calgary, or from elsewhere in Canada Most likely 25-34 year-old cohort 600 400 200 0 Did not move 5- Years Moved within CSD or CMA 5-Years Moved from elsewhere in Canada 5-Years Moved from international 5- Years All household members have moved but from different locations 5-Years All other age groups still represent substantial market 15 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 years and over 5
Evolving Profiles 50-65% of units Young Urbanite Singles Young Urbanite Couples Mid Career Professionals 15-25% of units Seasoned professionals 10-20% of units 6
Household type ratios help inform unit size, style Renters of new construction apartments/condos in Calgary (2011 NHS) Household income >$70K Roommates 19% Fam + kids 13% 2 Bedroom preference? In 67% of households-- earning >$70K and living in new construction apts/condos in Calgary there is more than 1 occupant Single 33% Couple no kids 32% Multiple 3% 65% could make a 1 bedroom work Single does not mean unattached. Many renting singles over age 40 likely divorced; could have child(ren). Will want a bedroom for them. 7
Units in Percent Initial thinking on one bedroom versus two bedroom demand Percent of units by profile type (based on census data of households earning >$70K Movers and Non) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 bed 1 bed 1 bed 38% 2 bed 62% Assumes 54% young urbanites 23% Mid-Career Prof. 17% seasoned prof 6% other/unknown Assumed Young Urbanite households earning >$100K would insist on 2 bedrooms 8
Who lives in two bedroom units in urban Calgary? 45% Two Bedroom Units, New Construction, By Household Type Renting, Calgary Beltline (2011 Census) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- Avg HH Income of Renters in New Construction (2011 Census) 5% 0% Couple no kids Single Roomates 9
Urban Achievers Metropolitans Comfort Creatures RTKL took this and other research, and generated detailed profiles and unit size/style concepts. Vision Statement: The community we are building will appeal to people at multiple stages of life, and across a broad income spectrum from moderate salaries for young professionals starting out, to higher income seasoned professionals, and everyone in between. It s the perfect rental community to meet Calgary s changing demographics Urban Achievers (~25-35 Years Old) Metropolitans (~35-50 years old) Comfort Creatures (~50-70 Years Old) Large Studio / Sm 1 Bed (410 sq. ft) 1 Bed + Den/Flex (700-800 Sq. Ft.) 2 Bedroom (850-950 Sq. Ft 1 Bedroom (650-700 sq. ft) 2 Bedroom (850-950) Sq. Ft Luxury 2 Bedroom (1000-1200 Sq. Ft) 1 Bed + Den/Flex (700-800 Sq. Ft.) 2 Bedroom (850-950 Sq. Ft) Diverse, educated Singles, couples, roommates Good jobs Want upscale home, good value Educated, diverse Want convenience (amenities, shopping, recreation, work close by) Active lifestyle Established professionals Want convenience Want affordable luxury Appreciate services Active lifestyle 10
2011 Census data (acquired late 2013-2014) Renters of new construction apartments are often single with modest incomes, at least as recorded in census data 1400 Renters of new apartments/condos by income and household type. Calgary CSD. 2011 Census/NHS 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 11
Younger (often single) renters also have a higher propensity to move. Makes them logical targets of a new rental community 2500 2000 1500 1000 Age profile of apartment renting households in Calgary, earning $70K+, who moved vs did not move 2001-2006 Bringing Young Urbanites in first will populate and support the retail Did not move Moved 500 0 15-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65-74 years 75 years and over Youthful renters more likely to embrace opportunity to be among the first to rent 12
By 2016: Evolved initial phase (W4) to improve financial viability in a shifting marketplace & bring in residents who would populate and support the retail and atmosphere 13
More from GWLRA Research www.gwlranews.com Research Notes that use census data directly or informed by it Empty Nesters Seek Hassle Free Living by Renting October 17, 2017 Rise in Single Occupant Households What does it mean for rental housing? August 3, 2017 Research Reports The Pending Rental Demand Tsunami in Canada September 25, 2017 Eroding Dream of Home Ownership for Toronto s Renters June 1, 2017 The Design Value in Purpose-Built Rental March 17, 2017 14
Wendy Waters Senior Director, Research Services & Strategy GWL Realty Advisors Twitter: @Wendy_Waters @GWLRA Wendy.Waters@gwlra.com 1 November 2017 GWLRA RESEARCH