May 5, 2016 Poway EDSP Task 4.0 - Opportunity Site Analysis DRAFT Prepared for: The City of Poway Prepared by: Applied Development Economics, Inc. 255 Ygnacio Valley Road, #200, Walnut Creek, CA 94596 925.934.8712 99 Pacific Street, #200 J, Monterey, CA 93940 831.324.4896 www.adeusa.com
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction... 1 Methodology for Determining Opportunity Sites... 1 Summary of Potential Opportunity Sites... 2 Employment Opportunity Sites (E1-E16)... 4 Poway Road Commercial-Retail/Mixed Use Sites (Area 4, Sites C1-C36)... 19 Other Commercial Opportunity Sites (C26, C37-C39)... 25 Recreation/Entertainment Sites... 35 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s, I n c.
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INTRODUCTION In consultation with City staff and based on data from interviews, previous and current city studies, ADE identified and evaluated major existing and potential development sites in Poway, with a view to identifying suitable locations to develop the business opportunities identified in the market analysis. This analysis mainly addresses employment generating opportunities, as the Poway Rd. Corridor Study will be evaluating major retail and commercial development opportunities along Poway Rd. The site analysis utilizes real estate market characteristics of the sites, infrastructure constraints, and other criteria as outlined below to determine the relative opportunity to the City of Poway. METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING OPPORTUNITY SITES The analysis provided in this component of the EDSP utilizes the following outline: 1. Focus is primarily on sites for target employment; commercial and mixed use sites are identified by Poway Rd Corridor Study. Residential is not reviewed, with the exception of potential mixed use sites in the Poway Rd corridor. 2. Identifies potential supply of vacant, underutilized sites (From Corridor Study, interviews, ADE research) 3. Surveys market for demand trends favorable for expansion/attraction of uses/development a. Target employment identifies key industry clusters and likely business types (from ADE market and economic analysis) b. Commercial identifies sales tax generators to fill leakage; identify hotel demand; identify entertainment and restaurant demand (relies on Poway Rd Corridor Study, broker/developer Interviews) c. Mixed use identifies key retail/entertainment or employment zones or nodes to support commercial/residential mix (relies on Poway Rd Corridor Study, broker/developer interviews, market data research) d. Identifies current real estate financial and other metrics in market - vacancy rates, rents, sales, absorption, etc. (From Poway Rd Corridor Study, ADE market data research, interviews with brokers/developers) 4. Match demand opportunities with potential sites a. For each opportunity area above, identifies potential industry uses or businesses for specific vacant or underutilized sites b. Identifies metrics to ensure market transaction for development is within reasonable range, i.e., sales price, rents, etc., and where current gaps may exist P a g e 1 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY SITES Provided in Table 4.1 below, is a summary of the potential opportunity sites throughout the community, and includes key information about each site. The column labeled Economic Development Objective relates to benefits of development of the property toward general economic development objectives, namely, will it generate jobs, revenue, commercial revitalization, or recreation/community amenity. TABLE 4.1 OPP SITE # E1-E2 E3-E12 E13 E14 GENERAL LOCATION South Poway Business Park South Poway Business Park South Poway Business Park east end South Poway Business Park SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY SITES CURRENT LAND USE/ZONING Vacant zoned Light Industrial Vacant zoned Light Industrial Vacant zoned Industrial Park Known as Parkway Summit Vacant zoned Industrial Park Known as Ridge View PROPOSED LAND USE/ZONING ED OBJECTIVE 1 ACRES Business park zoning Light Industrial Business park zoning Light Industrial Industrial Park zoning; potential for secured facility Industrial Park zoning; potential for secured facility Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales 6.12 7.37 TBD TBD E15 South Poway Business Park Automobile Storage Lot Light Industrial zoning; automobile storage; long term manufacturing, office, distribution or other active business park use Revenue, Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales TBD E16 Area 4 C26 C37 South Poway Business Park Poway Road Corridor North Poway near Pomerado Hospital South Poway Business Park Vacant east end of Park up to Sycamore Canyon Rd. Light Industrial, South Poway Commercial, and Open Space/1 Dwelling unit zoning Varies Vacant - currently zoned Commercial Office Vacant; adjacent to Hampton Inn; zoning is South Poway Commercial Commercial, Light Industrial, Open Space Varies Commercial; Medical office or patient/employee housing; hotel Restaurant; Commercial Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales, Recreation/Community Attraction Commercial revitalization, revenue generation Commercial revitalization, revenue generation Commercial revitalization, revenue generation 103.76 TBD 2.06 1.23 C38 Old Poway Park Vacant; Open space, recreation Commercial, restaurant, hotel Visitor Serving Commercial 1.08 C39 South Poway Commercial; general South Poway Mining Site South Poway Mineral Resource Extraction Institutional, medical, residential Open space, recreation, conservation, light industrial Commercial revitalization, employment generation, revenue generations Recreation/ community attraction/ entertainment 1.7 TBD A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 2
OPP SITE # Stone Ridge Country Club GENERAL LOCATION North Poway TABLE 4.1 SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY SITES CURRENT LAND USE/ZONING Open space, recreation PROPOSED LAND USE/ZONING ED OBJECTIVE 1 ACRES Open space, recreation, restaurants, Recreation/ community attraction TBD Lake Poway North Central Poway Open space, recreation Open space, recreation, restaurants, entertainment Recreation/ community attraction/ entertainment TBD 1 Refers to overall ED strategy, (i.e., revenue generation, business to business sales, commercial revitalization, employment generation, and recreation/community attraction) Below, illustrated in Figure 4.1, is a map that that identifies these sites throughout the community, concentrated primarily in three areas: South Poway Business Park; Poway Road; North Poway. FIGURE 4.1 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF SITES Commercial Sites Commercial Sites Employment Sites P a g e 3 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY SITES (E1-E16) Following is a description of each potential opportunity site for Poway, utilized primarily for employment generating uses, such as manufacturing, sales, distribution, general office, etc. These sites are ideally drawn from the target industries as identified in the previous Market and Economic Analysis. It is helpful to preface this section with a brief summary of the overall market dynamics for these product types in Poway, primarily at the South Poway Business Park. This information comes from interviews with local brokers supplemented by market data and information from other recent market reports conducted for the City 2 : Overall in San Diego County, the market for industrial, flex R&D and office is improving, particularly in comparison to previous years after the recession. In Poway, supply for light industrial, flex R&D, and office use is limited compared to other business parks competing with the South Poway Business Park, such as Mira Mesa, Kearney Mesa, Rancho Bernardo, Escondido, Sorrento Valley, Sorrento Mesa, Scripps Ranch, and more distantly Carlsbad and Torrey Pines. Many of these parks, however, are also building out their lot inventory as demand increases across San Diego County, creating opportunities for Poway, particularly in industrial or offices uses that complement existing businesses (such as defense and aerospace, insurance/financial services, or engineering/ contracting); Net absorption has been positive and growing in the County across the industrial, flex R&D, and office product types. For Poway, there is very little absorption in any of the three categories, given the little new construction or inventory to come on line. Vacancy rates for industrial product across the county continues to be at 15-year low levels, though First Quarter 2016 saw a little increase from the previous quarter; for Flex R&D, vacancy rates are declining across the San Diego Region; for Office, vacancy rates are down, with Rancho Bernardo posting the lowest rate (8.07%) of any office submarket. For Poway, vacancy rates are low overall compared to the general market for these three uses, most notably for industrial space with Poway having the lowest vacancy rates in the I-15 corridor, particularly compared to Rancho Bernardo and Scripps Ranch. Construction throughout the region has picked up in all asset categories, with Flex R&D seeing its largest square footage under construction in 10 years, and with office building less but recording four consecutive year over year increases in office square feet delivered, mostly in Class A office product. For Poway, there has been little construction recently in any of these categories, though an approximate 86,000 square feet of new product is coming on line soon in industrial in the South Poway Business Park on Community Road. 2 Existing Conditions Assessment, Poway Road Corridor Study; VOIT Real Estate Services San Diego, First Quarter 2016; Cushman Wakefield. A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 4
Rental and lease rates are up in all categories, and in the case of office, are reaching new highs for the San Diego region, particularly when comparing first quarter 2015 to first quarter 2016. For Poway, warehousing lease rates are starting to trend up; office rates are comparable to some surrounding areas, higher than Rancho Bernardo, but lower than the average for San Diego County, and down some from first quarter 2015 but are trending up. Land values/prices overall in San Diego County across all three product types continue to increase. For Poway, land prices may be higher than the market can support with current rent levels for office and industrial, though some new projects coming on line may push levels lower to the point where leasing prices may be coming in line with levels to justify construction costs. Much of the land inventory in the South Poway Business Park is controlled by a few owners, which may put upward pressure on land pricing. Relatively few sales over the last several year may also contribute to land price levels. P a g e 5 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
Below, in Table 4.2, is a summary of some relevant market information for the City of Poway and San Diego County: Vacancy Rates TABLE 4.2 SUMMARY OF POWAY OFFICE, INDUSTRIAL/R&D FLEX MARKET TRENDS POWAY 1Q2016 POWAY VS. SAN DIEGO COUNTY POWAY 1Q2015 1Q2016 VS. 1Q2015 % CHANGE 1Q2016 VS 1Q2015 SAN DIEGO COUNTY 1Q2016 SAN DIEGO COUNTY 1Q2015 % CHANGE 1Q2016 VS 1Q2015 Industrial 3.88% 2.42% 6.03% 4.10% 4.92% (16.67%) Office 6.13% 7.66% (19.97%) 11.69% 11.98% (2.42%) Flex R&D 2.34% 2.17% (7.08%) 8.75% 10.61% (17.53%) Square Feet Vacant Industrial 286,355 177,765 61.08% 5,900,958 7,235,795 (18.45%) Office 79,977 99,863 (19.91%) 11,920,130 11,557,495 3.14% Flex R&D 30,591 27,311 12.00% 3,981,528 4,605,025 (13.54%) Lease Rates (average asking rate/month) Industrial $.90 $.89 1.12% $.82 $.72 13.89% Office $1.80 $1.85 (2.70%) $2.64 $2.43 8.64% Flex R&D $1.36 $.80 70.00% $1.47 $1.37 7.30% Under Construction (sf) Industrial 0 70,918-499,939 127,780 291% Office 0 0-524,652 919,731 (42.96%) Flex R&D 0 0-1,032,350 618,000 67.05% Net Rentable Square Feet Industrial 7,372,384 7,341,577.42% 143,934,011 144,346,986 (.29%) Office 1,304,758 1,303,146.12% 102,003,470 100,816,675 1.18% Flex R&D 1,305,907 1,260,718 3.58% 45,527,581 45,415,202.25% Net Absorption Industrial 119,801 131,679 N/A 13,373* 689,648 N/A Office 8,875 (14,743) N/A 532,307 192,247 N/A Flex R&D (8,742) (1,491) N/A 338,942 147,166 N/A Source: Existing Conditions Assessment, Poway Road Corridor Study; VOIT Real Estate Services San Diego, First Quarter 2016; Cushman Wakefield. *4Q2015 net absorption was over 600,000sf. Following each opportunity site described below, is a site specific aerial map. A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 6
OPPORTUNITY SITE E1 AND E2 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner Acres Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints South Poway Business Park Vacant zoned Light Industrial Business park zoning Light Industrial Employment generation, business to business sales Tech Business Center Ventures E1-3.53 ac; E2 2.59 ac Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals, Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices, Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments, Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce These are likely key parcels for future business and employment given current plans for development on E1 and parcels to the west None Small lot sizes may limit size of building/businesses who occupy Summary: These two parcels off of Community Road and Kirkham Rd in the South Poway Business Park are suited for business park/light industrial uses, particularly for those target industries and business types noted above, as identified in the Market and Economic Analysis. The size of the parcels could be a constraint to any larger development footprint, which does limit the square footage and thus the size of business occupying the site. Site E1 is currently planned to be incorporated into a property development application for 86,000 sf of light industrial/business park buildings utilizing this property. This will provide some of the newest business park space available in Poway and is being built essentially without pre-leasing commitments. E2 is currently vacant and would be suitable for a smaller business park use. Given current development standards, it is estimated this site would accommodate approximately 50,000 square feet of building (lot coverage requirement is 50% of net lot area) 3 3 South Poway Specific Plan, Development Standards, Volume 2, Updated April 2014. P a g e 7 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.2 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS E1 AND E2 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 8
OPPORTUNITY SITES E3 E12 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner Acres Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints South Poway Business Park Vacant zoned Light Industrial Business park zoning Light Industrial Employment generation, business to business sales Tech Business Center Ventures 7.37 ac total for all parcels Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals, Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices, Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and Packaging, Information Technology and Analytical Instruments, Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce Bundled together as a campus may provide an opportunity for sale or lease. Smaller pads, however, could be attractive to growth firms who supply major business park users (i.e., General Atomics) None Access is off side street (Paine) and not fronting major arterial (i.e., Scripps Poway Parkway or Kirkham) Summary: The advantage to this site is that it is one of the remaining vacant property within the business park that is available, and could be bundled together to form a campus for a single user. There may also be an opportunity to plan this site for smaller floor plates for emerging businesses that are suppliers to the key industries in the business park, such as General Atomics. This site sits behind the existing buildings on Gregg St. which may be an advantage to some users if they partner or are tied to the businesses occupying that portion of the South Poway Business Park. Given current development standards, it is estimated these sites collectively would accommodate approximately 140,000 square feet of building (lot coverage requirement is 50% of net lot area) 4 Previous planning for the site anticipated ten separate parcels, though some lots appear to be fairly small in size. 4 South Poway Specific Plan, Development Standards, Volume 2, Updated April 2014. P a g e 9 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.3 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS E3 E12 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 10
OPPORTUNITY SITE E13 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner Acres Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints South Poway Business Park east end Vacant zoned Industrial Park Known as Parkway Summit Industrial Park zoning; potential for secured facility Employment generation, business to business sales HCP TBD Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals, Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices, Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments, Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce Large, flexible lot is advantageous; current market sales pricing may be a disadvantage None None Summary: This lot is owned by HCP and has been planned for potential development scenarios varying from three buildings to nine buildings, and from 330,000 sf to 450,000 sf depending on various site configurations. This is one of the premier lots for economic development in the City adjacent to General Atomics. There has been interest in this site in the past for a potential expansion of existing or complementary uses. The lot size, flexibility, and location provide an advantage over other sites in the South Poway Business Park, particularly for a single large user in need of a business park campus. Another distinct advantage of this site is the potential to create a secured facility for defense contracting. In discussion with brokers and developers of property with familiarity of the San Diego region and the South Poway Business Park, one potential disadvantage has been the marketing of the site at current price levels. This price may be above current market levels for the surrounding region for this type of property, and may be too high for current lease rates to justify this with construction costs. P a g e 11 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.4 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS E13 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 12
OPPORTUNITY SITE E14 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner Acres Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints South Poway Business Park Vacant zoned Industrial Park Known as Ridge View Industrial Park zoning; potential for secured facility Employment generation, business to business sales HCP TBD Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals, Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices, Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments, Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce Current market sales pricing may be a disadvantage None Site is long and narrow, which could constrain flexibility of use as a campus versus individual building use. No access from the south Summary: This property is a collection of four parcels and is owned by HCP and is currently being marketed for site users. It has been planned for development with four buildings with a total building footprint of approximately 395,000 sq ft. The far west parcel has been developed with an approximate 115,000 sf building that is leased out, leaving a total of 280,000 sf for future development. This property is similar in its advantage as a potential secured campus for defense contracting or high tech manufacturing, particularly with the southerly edge buffered by slopes and undevelopable property. The disadvantage of the site, however, is that it is narrow, which could constrain flexibility of use as a campus versus individual building use. In discussion with brokers and developers of property with familiarity of the San Diego region and the South Poway Business Park, one potential disadvantage has been the marketing of the site at current price levels. This price may be above current market levels, compared with other properties found in the immediate region of the I-15 corridor or other similar business parks in North and Central San Diego County. P a g e 13 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.5 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS E14 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 14
OPPORTUNITY SITE E-15 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner Acres Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints South Poway Business Park Automobile Storage Lot Light Industrial zoning; automobile storage; long term manufacturing, office, distribution or other active business park use Employment generation, business to business sales City of Poway Successor Agency TBD If no longer needed as automobile storage, Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals, Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices, Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments, Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce City will receive 21% of sale proceeds, and could market the property in the future to attract businesses None No southerly access, but site is large and flexible as to configuration of buildings Summary: The Successor Agency s Long Range Property Management Plan requires this property be sold. This property is a good candidate for acquisition by the City for continued use as a vehicle storage lot. The vehicle storage lot plays a unique role by providing automobile dealerships with space for vehicle storage. The current tenant is an association of dealerships and is not structured to own land. Other buyers may be dissuaded by the fact that the property is encumbered by a lease which could potentially (with the exercise of an option) be in place an additional ten years. Furthermore, as a taxing entity entitled to a portion of the Successor Agency s property sales, the City will receive 21% of the sales proceeds. Should the vehicle storage lot no longer be needed, the property could be utilized as a City facility, to attract business(es), or be sold. P a g e 15 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.6 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS E15 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 16
OPPORTUNITY SITE E-16 General Location South Poway Business Park Vacant east end of Park up to Sycamore Canyon Rd Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner Acres Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints Light Industrial, South Poway Commercial, and Open Space/1 Dwelling unit zoning; Undetermined Undetermined K&M Investments LP 103.76 ac Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals, Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices, Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments, Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce; Commercial on Scripps Poway Parkway; Open space On eastern edge of business park with developable land in between; likely later phases of business park development Some of the developable portions of the site not served by utilities yet Canyon slopes cover most of the property; western end is likely developable portion Summary: Interesting longer term phase of Business Park. Slope constraints of the site likely provide long term open space opportunity, whereas, western portion adjacent to opportunity site E-13 is likely developable area. This portion of site would likely come forward in the market as E-13 develops, and is best suited for a complementary business park use to E-13, plus a portion for commercial as the zoning allows along Scripps Poway Parkway. P a g e 17 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.7 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS E16 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 18
POWAY ROAD COMMERCIAL-RETAIL/MIXED USE SITES (AREA 4, SITES C1-C36) In general, from review of the Poway Rd Corridor study material, discussions with brokers, and review of market metrics, it appears there are a variety of opportunities for commercial revitalization along Poway Rd. Such opportunities may require the assembly or combination of parcels, and rezoning. The primary economic development objective of these sites would be commercial revitalization, and land uses may include retail, service commercial including restaurants, entertainment, office, and housing in a mixed-use setting. Some of these sites may be for expansion or relocation of existing businesses, such as automobile dealerships. Accordingly, it is recommended that land use along Poway Road allow flexibility to allow large commercial tenants, should such businesses expansion, attraction, or retention opportunities arise. The Poway Road Corridor study notes sales leakage in retail categories where some of this revitalization may address. If review of the Poway Corridor study and from other sources, a comprehensive list of properties along Poway Road can be identified for potential revitalization (either singularly or in combination). Figures 4.8 through 4.12 on the following pages, illustrate these potential sites. These sites are all contained within Opportunity Area 4 as noted on the opportunity site map in Figure 4.1 at the beginning of this section. Among the various Opportunity Areas identified by the Poway Rd Corridor Study, Area 4 one stands out as a top prospect for private and public investment to achieve the goals of commercial revitalization. As several of these properties are owned by the Successor Agency, Housing Authority and City, this area represents an opportunity for City to utilize property with adjacent properties, or alone to incentivize private development. As noted in the Poway Rd. Corridor Study, development of many of these sites face a number of challenges, including multiple owners, tenant leaseholds, aging facilities, and market dynamics where rent levels may not justify investment in development. Also, there are properties where current cash flows are positive, despite lower rent and discount oriented tenants, which can create a disincentive for owners to invest in upgrades and redevelopment of the site despite higher rents and utilization. POWAY ROAD CORRIDOR STUDY OPPORTUNITY AREA 4 P a g e 19 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
1 FIGURE 4.8 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C 1 C6 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 20
FIGURE 4.9 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C7 C10 P a g e 21 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.10 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C11 C21 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 22
FIGURE 4.11 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C22 C25 P a g e 23 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.12 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C27 C36 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 24
OTHER COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY SITES (C26, C37-C39) In addition to employment generating sites, and areas along the Poway Rd Corridor, there are additional sites that may be suitable for other commercial uses, including office and hotels. The demand for such use is characterized in the Poway Rd Corridor Study documents and indicates there could be some demand for specialty office (such as medical), demand for recreational uses and amenities, but a lesser demand for hotel. Through interviews with brokers/developers, city staff, and general market research, including review of the Poway Rd Corridor Study documents, three potential properties have been identified by ADE as opportunity sites for commercial development (in addition to other sites noted in the Poway Rd Corridor Study). These sites are described below. OPPORTUNITY SITE C26 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner North Poway near Pomerado Hospital Vacant - currently zoned Commercial Office Medical office or patient/employee housing; hotel Commercial revitalization, employment generation, revenue generation City of Poway Housing Authority Acres 2.06 Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints medical offices; employee or patient housing; hotel Owned by City Housing Authority so options exist for utilizing value in land to stimulate investment; location to hospital is attractive for medical related uses (either office or housing) or hotel None None Summary: This lot may be ideal for a medical related use with adjacency to the hospital. Medical offices, including primary and specialty care may be in demand. Also, the site could be suitable as housing for employees of the hospital as more nurses and doctors are sharing duties throughout medical systems and locations, and/or for patient housing for long term patient care, or family of patients in longer term care procedures at the hospital. It is our understanding, however, that the hospital does currently have vacant space within the main hospital buildings, so careful review of this opportunity with the hospital administration would be prudent to determining its use as a medical related purpose. According to the City s adopted Housing Element, the Monte Vista site is targeted for low Income affordable housing dwelling units. 5 This site may also be suitable for a hotel use to serve the hospital and north Poway (see further discussion below on hotels). 5 City of Poway, General Plan Housing Element, updated 2014 P a g e 25 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.15 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C26 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 26
FIGURE 4.16 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS HOTEL MARKET Summary: As depicted in Figure 4.16, above, Poway is essentially in the I-15/Kearney Mesa trade area for hotels, encompassing a 6 mile radius around Poway. 6 The City s three existing hotels are economy and limited service. There may be an opportunity for an additional limited service hotel (typically 3 star) in the sites noted above, namely, in the South Poway Business Park to capture business users (within proximity to the Hampton Inn, see C-37), on Poway Rd in the Town Center area to help revitalize that area, or adjacent to the hospital, to serve north Poway and families of hospital patients and employees of the hospital (Opportunity Site C-26). There may be an opportunity for a hotel on Poway Rd to be more boutique in nature, smaller and of higher service than a standard limited service brand name hotel. 6 Poway Rd Corridor Study Draft 2015; PKF 2015. P a g e 27 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
TRADE AREA HOTELS MAP ID NAME CITY RATING 1 Hilton Garden Inn San Diego/Rancho Bernardo San Diego 3-star hotel 2 La Quinta Inn San Diego Rancho Penasquitos San Diego 2-star hotel 3 Spring Hill Suites by Marriott San Diego-Scripps Poway San Diego 2-star hotel 4 Residence Inn by Marriott Scripps Poway Parkway San Diego 3-star hotel 5 Best Western Country Inn- San Diego, Poway Poway 3-star hotel 6 Rancho Valencia Resort and Spa S.D. County 5-star hotel 7 Country Inn & Suites by Carlson-San Diego North San Diego 3-star hotel 8 Residence Inn By Marriott Sorrento Mesa San Diego 3-star hotel 9 Courtyard by Marriott San Diego / Rancho Bernardo San Diego 3-star hotel 10 San Diego Ramada Poway Poway 2-star hotel 11 The Inn At Rancho Santa Fe 12 Morgan Run Resort & Club S.D. County S.D. County 4-star hotel 3-star hotel 13 Best Western Inn Miramar San Diego 3-star hotel 14 15 Rancho Bernardo Inn San Diego - A Golf and Spa Resort Residence Inn by Marriott Rancho Bernardo Carmel Mt. Ranch San Diego San Diego 4-star hotel 3-star hotel 16 Courtyard by Marriott San Diego Sorrento Mesa San Diego 3-star hotel 17 Radisson Suite Hotel Rancho Bernardo San Diego 3-star hotel 18 Quality Suites San Diego - Miramar San Diego 2-star hotel 19 Doubletree Golf Resort San Diego San Diego 3-star hotel 20 Homestead San Diego - Sorrento San Diego 2-star hotel 21 Four Points by Sheraton - San Diego San Diego 3-star hotel 22 Rancho Bernardo Inn San Diego 4-star hotel 23 Hampton Inn & Suites San Diego-Poway Poway 2-star hotel A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 28
OPPORTUNITY SITE C37 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner Acres Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints South Poway Business Park Site C-37 Vacant; adjacent to Hampton Inn; zoning is South Poway Commercial Restaurant Commercial revitalization, revenue generation City of Poway Successor Agency 1.23 ac Commercial; restaurant Adjacency to Hampton Inn, and corner location makes it attract for commercial use None None Summary: This site seems best suited for a commercial use, such as a restaurant or gas station to service the business park employees and guests of the Hampton Inn. It location on a corner of Scripps Poway Parkway allows it good site visibility, which may make the gas station more viable. A gas station would require a CUP under the zoning. The retail leakage study in the Poway Rd Corridor study, however, does not indicate leakage demand in this retail sector, but it appears there are few gas stations on Scripps Poway Parkway. Given the ownership by the Successor Agency, there is an opportunity to utilize the land value as an incentive in the private investment for development, if warranted. Below is the aerial map for C-37. P a g e 29 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.17 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C37 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 30
OPPORTUNITY SITE C38 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner Old Poway Park Vacant - Open Space Recreation Commercial; restaurant; hotel Visitor Serving Commercial City of Poway Acres 1.08 Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints boutique hotel; specialty restaurant Owned by City, weekend destination for weddings, Farmer's Market, and special events. None Open space designation Summary: Old Poway Park was built to create the ambiance of the turn-of-the-twentieth-century setting. It includes historic Poway buildings and a train barn to house a classic 1938 Fairmont Speeder steam engine, ore cars, and an 1894 L.A. Yellow Trolley. Each year, more than 23,000 people participate in special events at Old Poway Park. Annually, nearly 55,000 riders enjoy the train and more than 11,000 visitors attend the museum. Park facilities are rented for more than 500 events. In addition, the City leads more than 1,500 schoolchildren through historical tours. Besides high daily use, the park is a favorite spot for weddings and hosts special community events including Old Fashioned Fourth of July, Summer Concert Series, Once Upon a Hallowe en, Tour de Poway, Rendezvous in Poway, Veterans Day, Christmas in the Park, Standard Flower Show, Train Song Festival, Community Band Festival, and the Sam Hinton Folk Festival. The Poway Farmers Market is located on Midland Road every Saturday, creating a pedestrian-friendly shopping and entertainment experience in the Old Poway Park area. A public parking lot located across Midland Road, to the east of Old Poway Park, presents an opportunity to enhance the range of activities, services, and accommodations at Old Poway Park. Examples include themed restaurants and Victorian themed boutique hotel. The graded parking lot consists of five parcels and is improved with asphalt grindings, box trees, and minor drainage. This lot accommodates day use parking for Old Poway Park and parking for community events, the weekly Farmers Market, and the Midland Road Street Fair. P a g e 31 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.13 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C38 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 32
OPPORTUNITY SITE C39 General Location Current Use/Zoning Proposed Use/Zoning ED Objective Owner South Poway Commercial General Institutional, medical, residential Commercial revitalization, employment generation, revenue generation City of Poway Acres 1.7 Potential Target Industries/Business Types Market Dynamics Infrastructure Constraints Site Constraints medical offices, employee or patient housing Owned by City None Historic designation The Historic Big Stone Lodge, located at 12237 Old Pomerado Rd. consists of a former restaurant known as Topsy s Roost, and a former gas station/residence, all of which are over 75 years old. Pursuant to the California Environmental Quality Act, buildings over 50 years old are considered potentially historic and the City designated the Big Stone Lodge site as locally historic in May 1991. The site includes many mature oak and sycamore trees; some that date back to the construction of the Lodge. To preserve and enhance the historic character of the area, and provide an additional recreational amenity through which to portray the site s history, the City designated Big Stone Lodge as a passive historic park. P a g e 33 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
FIGURE 4.14 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS C39 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 34
RECREATION/ENTERTAINMENT SITES There are several sites in Poway where reutilization or further revitalization may create opportunities to meet economic development and community development objectives, particularly around enhancing recreation and entertainment opportunities and uses in Poway. Below is a description of those sites. South Poway Mining Site It is our understanding that the current mineral resource extraction site south of the South Poway Business Park in Beeler Canyon may be ceasing operations in the near future. If this is the case, it may be advantageous for the City to discuss with the property owners potential future uses as contemplated in the Vulcan Materials Reclamation Plan and CUP, with a focus as recreation site to complement Lake Poway as regional destination recreation. It is our further understanding that some planning concepts have been discussed before for this property, including restoration of Beeler Creek as a recreation corridor, and creation of a larger open space in the center of the mining pit area once reclamation is completed and designated as Natural Open Space. 7 These recreation uses could be passive or active, depending on the demand for additional soccer or baseball fields in the region. Another form of active recreation could be an outdoor climbing wall or venue, which is fairly unique in southern California, and could be developed here on a larger scale than most. Given the topography, this may be a location for an outdoor amphitheater for entertainment. These uses, though may require zoning and/or general plan amendments. Development concepts for this site also anticipate potential light industrial pads just south of Kirkham Way, above this recreation area. Depending on their depth and size, these could create additional site inventory for industrial uses, to help alleviate Poway s shortage in employment related sites. Stone Ridge Country Club It is also our understanding that there may be an opportunity for change or modification of use at the Stone ridge Country Club. This is a significant piece of property in the northern part of Poway, currently zoned open space/recreation. It is often difficult for golf course/country club parcels to transform into other uses once housing has developed around them and the open space designation in the general plan or specific plans has been provided and enjoyed by the community. It has been suggested, however, the facilities may be used as a craft brewery, winery, restaurants and/or an entertainment venue on the property to compliment open space or golf uses. Such uses would help meet the desire of the community for further upscale restaurants and entertainment venues. Lake Poway Lake Poway is a unique recreational asset for the City, and a strong regional draw. Similar to the discussion above for Stone Ridge Country Club, there may be an opportunity at this location to add a restaurant and/or other venue. An upscale restaurant, standing alone or with a winery 7 South Poway Specific Plan, Development Standards, Volume 2, Updated April 2014. P a g e 35 A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s
or brewery use would add a complementary use to the recreation components of the lake, trails, and open space. An entertainment venue, including an outdoor amphitheater is another possibility. It would be advantageous as well to have any of these uses oriented on the property with views of Lake Poway, if possible. As this property is owned by the City, the ability to structure favorable concession leases, ground leases, or property sales exists to help incentivize private investment. A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s P a g e 36