California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics May 2018
Sales Lost Momentum as Mortgage Rates Continued to Climb California, May 2018 Sales: 409,270 Units, +0.3% YTD, -4.6% YTY 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - May-17: 428,870 May-18: 409,270 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
California Home Sales Declined for the 1 st Time in 4 Months 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) -25% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
Bay Area Sales Continued to Grow Despite Statewide Decline 30% Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) 20% YoY % chg. 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Southern California Home Sales Dipped Again after Brief Bounce-Back in April YoY % chg. 40% So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Central Valley Sales Grew for the 5 th Consecutive Month YoY % chg. 30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Sales in the Higher-Priced Market Improve, but the Lower-Price Market Remain Soft 30% May-17 May-18 22% 23% 20% 10% 7% 5% 16% 16% 14% 15% 14% 13% 11% 11% 14% 12% 4% 4% 0% SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
Sales Declined in Sub-$500k Segments May 2018 (Year-to-Year) 30% 20% 18.1% 19.6% 10% 0% 4.0% 0.5% -10% -20% -13.1% -6.1% -4.8% -30% -40% -28.7% SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
CA Median Price Reached a New Record High California, May 2018: $600,080, +2.8% MTM, +9.2% YTY $700,000 $600,000 P: May-07 $594,530 May-17: $550,230 May-18: $600,860 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile Year-over-Year Price Growth 14% 13.0% 12% 10% 8% 8.3% 7.9% 8.2% 7.5% 9.5% 9.5% 8.9% 9.3% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Percentile SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
50% 40% Price Growth Remained Strong for both Homes and Condos Condo Single-Family Homes 30% YTY% Chg. in Price 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes
$500,000 $450,000 Condo/Townhome Median Price Continued to Trend up Condo Median Price $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 May-17: $440,940 May-18: $474,400 $0 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 SERIES: Median Prices of Existing Condos/Townhomes
CA Median Price (Existing SFH) Month-to-Month % Chg 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
Price Per Square Foot Highest since Late 2007 May 2018: $286, Up 1.8% MTM, Up 6.7% YTY $400 $350 PRICE PER SQ. FT. $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes May-17: $268 May-18: $286
Sales Price -to-list Price Unchanged May 2018: 100.0%, 0% MTM, 0% YTY Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes May-17: May-18: 100.0% 100.0%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile Sales-to-List Price Ratio 102.0% 101.5% 101.0% 100.5% 100.0% 99.5% 99.0% 98.5% 98.0% 97.5% 97.0% 101.7% 101.3% 100.5% 100.0% 0-20 100.0% 20-40 100.0% 40-60 100.1% 100.0% 60-80 80-100 80-85 Percentile May-17 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes May-18 100.0% 86-90 91-95 96-100 100.0% Total
Time on Market Near Record-Low Level California, May 2018: 15.0 Days 80 DAYS ON MARKET 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes
Median Time on Market by Percentile Median Time on Market 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 17 18 16 13 0-20 14 20-40 13 14 40-60 14 14 60-80 14 14 13 80-100 80-85 Percentile May-17 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes 13 May-18 13 12 86-90 13 13 91-95 14 96-100 14 14 Total
Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 32.2%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.1% Reduced-Price Listings 50% 0% 45% 40% -1% -2% 35% -3% 30% 25% -4% -5% 20% 15% -6% -7% 10% 5% -8% -9% 0% 1/1/2010-10% 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 Share Reduced SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 Median Reduction 1/1/2017 1/1/2018
Inventory Index Up for the 1st Time since July 2016 May 2017: 2.9 Months; May 2018: 3.0 Months 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings Largest Increase in 3 Years Year-over-Year % Chg 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes 8.3%
Inventory Index Highest in Millions 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 9.0 7.5 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.8 May-17 SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes 3.7 3.0 May-18 3.7 3.4 4.4 3.9 2.9 3.0
Housing Supply Improved across the Board, Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment May 2018 Active Listing 20% 16.1% 10% 3.9% 0% -10% -20% -20.1% -30% SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes 12.7% 8.1% 8.3% 8.1% 2.4%
Inventory Increased as Buying Season is Underway 9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
Active Listings by Month Active Listings by Month 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2017 2018
Active Listings Surged in All Regions May 2018 Sales Active Listings Year-to-Year % Chg 20% 10% 10% 8% 7% 2% 1% 0% -6% -10% San Francisco Bay Area SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes Southern California Central Valley
Mortgage Rates Jumped in Mid-April and Mid- May Up 15 basis points Up 20 basis points SERIES: Average 30-Yr. Fixed-Rate Mortgage SOURCE: Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage Rates Expected to Move Up in 2nd Half of 2018 January 2010 June 14, 2018 6 MONTHLY 5 4 3 2 1 0 SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM SOURCE: Freddie Mac FRM ARM WEEKLY 4.59 4.62 3.79 3.83