ADACTUS HOUSING ASSOCIATION: WHO ARE OUR TENANTS? A Tenant Profiling Report for AHA

ADACTUS HOUSING ASSOCIATION: WHO ARE OUR TENANTS? A Tenant Profiling Report for AHA

ADACTUS HOUSING ASSOCIATION: WHO ARE OUR TENANTS? A Tenant Profiling Report for AHA (as at 06/10/09) 1.1 Introduction In order to effectively target and promote our services to our customers it is essential that we have a good understanding of who our tenants are, both those who have been with us for many years and those who have only just let a property with us. This report provides a brief demographic profile of Adactus tenants (overall and for new lettings, evictions and for tenants in arrears) and presents demographic data for key areas of AHA stock (beyond our tenant base) along with projections for areas such as population, deprivation and health. 1.2 Demographic profile of AHA tenants Figure 1 presents a demographic profile of tenants at AHA (those with primary or joint tenancies). All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number. Percentages are calculated as a proportion of those tenants for whom we have accurate data for. Data is also displayed in graphical format. This shows that Adactus has slightly more female tenants. The average tenant is aged around 50 (compared to an average age of 62 for Beech and 53 for CCH). Just under three quarters (71%) identify themselves as White (21% BME) and the largest ethnic minority group is Black. The average tenant has lived in their property around 8 years (compared to around 6 years for Beech and 9 and a half years for CCH). As would be expected, the average age of tenants increases gradually with length of tenancy (i.e. 44.4 for those who ve been a tenant for less than a year vs. 64.8 for those who ve been a tenant more than 20 years). A fifth of our tenants indicate they have some form of disability, most of which say they have a disability affecting their mobility (44%). The average tenancy is 212 in arrears. The majority of AHA tenants live in the local authority of Manchester (56.1%) with a high concentration of stock in the wards of Moss Side and Miles Platting & Newton Heath.

Figure 1: Demographic profile of AHA tenants (all) Primary and joint tenancies Base / MF split 40% M 60% F Ave length of tenancy (years) 8.3 years Longest tenancy: 56 years Tenancy lengths (% s) <1yr 1-2yr 3-4 yr 5-6yr 7-8yr 9-10yr 11-15 16-20 21+ 9% 17% 1 14% 10% 14% 6% 9% Average age of tenant * 50.8 years Ages of tenants (% s) * 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 5% 16% 21% 20% 15% 11% 1 Ethnicity % s # Non BME BME Refuse Broken down into =White =Other W =Mixed =Asian =Black =Chinese =Other =Refuse 71% 21% 71% 4% 2% 1% Disability (% s) Yes No Types Mobility: Hearing: Learning: Visual: Other: Mental: 80% 20% 10% 1% 0.5% 0.5% 6% 2% No of arrears 500+ 1079 (1) NB: Gender data based on the 8284 tenants for whom we have title data for. Tenancy length based on full tenancy start data on QL. * Age analyses based on the 7281 tenants with accurate date of birth data on QL. # Non BME classed as White British, BME classed as all other categories. ** Less than 0% Data on family status inaccurate so not provided.

Figure 2: Tenancy length (AHA) <1yr 1-2yr 3-4yr 5-6yr 7-8yr 9-10yr 11-15yr 16-20yr 21+ 6% 9% 9% 14% 17% 1 10% 14% Figure 3: Ages (AHA tenants) 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 1 5% 16% 11% 15% 21.0% 20.0%

Figure 4: Ethnic origin (AHA tenants) Non BME BME Refuse 21% 71% Figure 5: Ethnic origin- breakdown (AHA tenants) White-British White-Other Mixed Asian Black Chinese Other Refuse 1% 2% 4% 71%

1.3. Demographic profile for evictions Over the course of the past two years (2007-2009) 152 AHA tenants have been evicted from their property (compared to only three at BHA and 29 at CCH). Slightly more female tenants have been evicted from their homes and, of those we have ethnicity data for, most have been White. The evictees have an average tenancy length of just 3.2 years (far shorter than the average for Adactus tenants as a whole) and the majority (84%) have been aged under 45 (with an average age of just 32.9 years, again significantly younger than the average age of AHA tenants as a whole). In addition, there is a significantly higher proportion of tenants aged 16-24 who have been evicted (compared to the proportion in the tenant base as a whole) at Adactus (5% of tenants are aged 16-24 yet 30% of evictees fall into this age category). The average closing balance for these tenants was 823. Figure 5: Demographic profile of tenants who have been evicted from their property (07-09) Base / MF split Tenancy lengths (% s) Ages of tenants (% s) * Primary and joint tenants 152 evictions 54 M 83 F Ave length of tenancy (years) 3.2 years Longest tenancy: 26 years <1yr 1-2yr 3-4 yr 5-6yr 7-8yr 9-10yr 11-15 16-20 21+ 15% 41% 20% 4% - 1% Average age of tenant * 32.9 years 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 30% 2 26% 9% 5% 1% 1% Ethnicity % s # Non BME BME: Refuse: NB: Gender data based on 137 tenants which we have title data for. Tenancy length based on full tenancy start data on QL. * Age analyses based on the 132 tenants with accurate date of birth data on QL. # Ethnicity data available for 144 tenants. Non BME classed as White British, BME classed as all other categories. 77% 20%

1.4 Demographic profile of tenants in arrears The following table presents a simple demographic profile of AHA tenants in arrears by 500 pounds or more. These tenants generally: 1. Have a shorter tenancy length than AHA tenants as a whole (average 6.3 vs. 8.3 years) and are most likely to be early on in their tenancy (i.e. tenants who have lived in their property 1-6 years). 2. Are most likely to be aged between 25 and 54 and are slightly younger than the average AHA tenant (45.2 years vs. 50.8 years). The most a single tenant owes is 5097. Base Figure 6: Demographic profile of tenants in arrears: 500+ Ave Tenancy lengths Average length of (% s) age of tenancy tenant * (years) Gender split 500+ 1079 40% M 60% F 6.3 years Longest tenancy: 33 years <1yr 1-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 11-15 16-20 21+ 11% 1 14% 15% 12% 10% 14% 45.2 years Ages of tenants (% s) * 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 20% 25% 2 9% 6% Ethnicity % s # Non BME BME Refuse NB: Gender data based on 1073 tenants in arrears for whom we have title data for. Tenancy length based on full tenancy start data on QL. * Age analyses based on the 1001 tenants in arrears with accurate date of birth data on QL. # Ethnicity data available for 976 tenants. Non BME classed as White British, BME classed as all other categories. 7 21% 6%

Figure 8 below breaks down the arrears value for each age group in more detail. This illustrates that there is a linear relationship between age and arrears as shown in Figure 9 on the following page (i.e. tenants aged under 24 are three times more likely to be in high levels of arrears than those aged 55-75). This analysis identifies 5 key groups of tenants at risk of arrears at Adactus: i)tenants aged 16-24 with low-medium arrears (potentially building up problems for the future) high risk. ii)tenants aged 25-44 with low level arrears (again potentially building up future debt) high risk. iii)tenants aged 25-54 with medium arrears medium risk. iv)tenants aged 16-44 with high arrears medium risk. v)tenants aged 25-34 with very high arrears medium risk. See section 1.9 for recommendations based on these findings. Figure 7: Age Profile of Arrears Value Age Band None/credit Very Low Low Medium High Very High 16-24 9% 19% 49% 16% 6% 1% 25-34 24% 24% 4 10% 6% 2% 35-44 24% 24% 45% 10% 5% 1% 45-54 24% 24% 41% 10% 4% 1% 55-64 2 2 40% 6% 2% 1% 65-74 3 3 3 6% 1% 1% 75+ 27% 27% 32% 7% 2% 1% Average age 56.6 years 52.6 years 48.7 years 46.4 years 42.6 years 44.1 years Total/average 21% 25% 39% 1% NB: Analysis is based on the proportion of tenants who had accurate date of birth data and tenancy start date/arrears value None: Credit/0-10 Very Low: 11-100 Low: 101-500 Medium: 501-1000 High: 1001-2000 Very High: 2001+ Very High High Above average Average Very Low

Figure 8: The linear relationship between age and arrears at Adactus Average age 60 50 40 30 20 57 53 49 46 43 44 10 0 0-10 11-100 101-500 501-1000 1001-2000 2001+ Arrears value

A random sample of tenants owing more than 500 was analysed further to determine whether there was any common characteristics these tenants shared with respect to: i)payment method (i.e. to explore whether tenants paying by a certain method were more likely to get in debt) ii)pattern of arrears (i.e. were tenants going in and out of arrears continually or had they simply built up arrears early on and carried these arrears throughout their tenancy for a number of years?). The following conclusions were drawn from this analysis: Most tenants had been in arrears from the very start of their tenancy (or soon into it) and had long periods of arrears (with many tenants never having a period where they were not in arrears by a small amount). A small proportion of the tenants sampled had been in arrears virtually all their tenancy. Those that did recover from the arrears (and built up a very small credit) were in a positive balance of no more than 40 (before again falling into arrears). Payment was very sporadic and none of the tenants showed any pattern of payments (i.e. paying every week). This was particularly the case for those in high level arrears, almost as if the larger debt was too overwhelming to deal with. The vast majority of those in arrears did not have one fixed method of payment (i.e. they paid by various methods cheque, cash, swipe card, debit card etc) and this varied both within and between payments. Some tenants had built up arrears so large that, despite now making regular payments, they were not clearing their retrospective level of debt. A small number of tenants had NOSP s served against them at the time of the analysis. At the time of analysis 80 AHA tenants owed more than 2000. These tenants were generally younger (average age 44.1) and had been with Adactus for an average of 7.6 years. The proportion of male and female tenants was similar to the population as a whole and most were aged 25-54 (only 14 were aged over 55).

Figure 9: Tenancy length (AHA tenants in arrears 500+) <1yr 1-2yr 3-4yr 5-6yr 7-8yr 9-10yr 11-15yr 16-20yr 21+ 11% 14% 10% 1 12% 14% 15% Figure 10: Ages (AHA tenants in arrears 500+) 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 6% 9% 20% 2 25%

Figure 11: Ethnic origin (AHA tenants in arrears 500+) Non BME BME Refuse 21% 94%

1.7 Demographic data for new lettings (past 12 months) The following table presents demographic data for all lets made during the 12 months preceding the analysis (745 new primary and joint tenancies). Most of these new lets were in Manchester (40%), Wigan (22%) and Sefton (16%). As would be expected, tenants coming into Adactus stock are younger with a slight male bias (as mirrored at CCH). Over half have been aged under 44. The average tenancy balance for new lets is 267 in arrears and the most a new tenant owes is 7118 (with 38 owing more than 1k). Figure 12: Demographic profile of new tenants (lettings made in the past 12 months) New lets (6/10/08 06/10/09) 745 Average age of tenant * 44.1 years Ages of tenants (% s) * 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 17% 21% 1 16% 10% 10% Ethnicity % s # Non BME BME Refuse 84% 15% 1% No of arrears 500+ 124 NB: Tenancy length based on full tenancy start data on QL. * Age analyses based on the 738 tenants with accurate date of birth data on QL. # Ethnicity data available for 685 tenants. Non BME classed as White British, BME classed as all other categories.

1.8 Demographic profile of key areas of Adactus stock The North West: Setting the Picture Across the North West housing supply is not meeting demand the region has seen the greatest rise in demand for social housing over the last 5 years following the current economic downturn we predict further rapid rises in house prices further reducing affordability and need. (National Housing Federation NW Regional Manager) The majority of Adactus Housing stock is in the local authorities of Manchester, Wigan, Sefton and Trafford. Various factors affect demand for social housing in the region, the main ones being affordability and population. In Greater Manchester Trafford has the highest affordability ratio (ratio of peoples incomes to average house prices) with over 80% of its postcodes falling within the acutely unaffordable range. Of the four local authorities where Adactus has a majority of its stock, two of these were recently identified by the government as having the highest proportion of homeowners at risk of repossession due to affordability risk factors. Within the North West the population has grown most in Manchester, Chorley and Warrington. Within the local authority of Manchester where most of AHA stock falls, the City Centre, Ardwick, Fallowfield, Ancoats & Clayton, Cheetham and Moss Side are predicted to have the greatest growths in numbers. The number of households has grown significantly faster than the general population as a whole primarily due to a drop in average household size. Indeed, the CLG predict that 40% of all households in the North West will be made up of just 1 person by the year 2020. However, this is not to say there will be no future demand for larger properties, particularly amongst ethnic households. The region as a whole is getting older and, if current trends continue, around half of household growth in areas such as Wigan, Bolton and Bury will be made up of households headed by those over 70. Based on this, it would be logical to assume there will be greater demand in these areas for a higher quantity (& higher quality) of sheltered housing which may have implications for AHA. The population of men in Manchester is projected to increase at a slightly faster rate than that of women and by the year 2016 there will be a 10% difference between the two genders within the local authority). This is mainly due to the high number of male foreign nationals (especially those of working age) moving into the area along with the movement of women out of the City. This gender imbalance will be seen up until the age of 65. The ethnic mix is also predicted to change in Greater Manchester with an increase in the Chinese, Black African and Asian Indian populations (and a corresponding drop in the numbers of Black Caribbean residents, which currently form of the AHA client base). When broken down at ward level,

the largest increases in minority ethnic groups are predicted to be in the City Centre, Ardwick, Hulme, Moss Side, Fallowfield and Cheetham. In addition, both international and internal migration has been significantly higher within the region/the UK as a whole, the majority of whom have tended to gravitate to areas with the poorest housing stock. This could suggest a need to develop low cost home ownership options / additional social rented housing in the area targeted at migrants or a potential to target hard to let properties amongst this group (although this requires further understanding of migrant aspirations and the type of housing required). A focus on 2 key areas of stock MILES PLATTING AND NEWTON HEATH The ward of Miles Platting has a population of 15676 (with just under two thirds being working age). By 2011 this is predicted to increase to 17,216 and to 18,177 by 2015 (ONS projections 2007). However the rate of growth is expected to slow. Whilst many age groups (i.e. young children, 25-59 s and those aged over 85) are predicted to increase, the numbers of some age categories (i.e. older teenagers / 80-84 year olds) are expected to fall. Miles Platting has a slightly lower proportion of BME residents than Manchester as a whole (91.2% identify themselves as White. All ethnic groups (with the exception of Black Caribbean) are expected to grow within the ward, particularly the Chinese community (who are expected to become the second largest community in the area). Of the wards within the local authority, Miles Platting ranks 2 nd in terms of overall deprivation (IMD 2007) and, in terms of barriers to housing and services (which considers factors such as overcrowding & difficulty accessing home ownership) it ranks 14 th out of 32 wards in Manchester (the higher the rank, the higher the level of deprivation). Levels of health deprivation and disability have deteriorated in recent years whilst factors affecting crime deprivation have improved. Unemployment is significantly higher in Miles Platting than for Manchester as a whole (7., MCC July 2009) and almost a fifth of the population are claiming benefits of some kind. Unemployment is significantly higher amongst males (10.) compared to females (3.1%) although this is mirrored nationwide. Community initiatives (i.e. self esteem / CV workshops) could target the high rate of unemployment amongst our tenants in the area. Levels of incapacity benefit claimants are also higher (19.5% vs. 11. for Manchester). Fewer residents have 5 A-C grade G.C.S.E s (particularly when including Maths and English) and, in 2008, 11. came out with no qualifications (vs. 1.4 in England). Average household size is slightly higher than for Manchester as a whole (2.37 vs. 2.29) although the New East Manchester survey (NEM, 2005) reported that Miles Platting had the highest proportion of single person households in the area.

At the last census, almost three in ten in the ward reported a limiting long-term illness (vs. 21.5% in Manchester / 17.9% in England) and the Manchester Residents Survey (2007) found that 27% rated themselves as not in good health. Similarly, the NEM survey 2005 found that residents in the area felt their health was worse compared with a year ago. The survey also revealed that, compared to the other areas in NEM, Miles Platting residents were amongst those most likely to smoke more than 20 cigarettes a day. This suggests that there is a potential for community initiatives to target smoking cessation amongst tenants in the area. The rate of under 18 conceptions is high in Miles Platting compared to Manchester as a whole (91.1 per 1000) and the proportion of those who engaged in moderate exercise five times a week is lower than Manchester as a whole (Health Survey for England 2006). In the NEM survey, just under half of the residents in Miles Platting said they had computer access at home. The survey also reported that car ownership was lowest in the ward, suggesting that a car sharing scheme could possibly be of benefit to residents particularly as car ownership is associated with things such as better access to health services and higher rates of engaging in exercise. MOSS SIDE The population of Moss Side currently stands at 15,627 with a higher than average proportion of working age residents (64.). This is expected to increase to 21,710 (by 2011) & 24, 899 (by 2015). Half the wards population identify themselves as belonging to an ethnic minority and the biggest BME communities are Black Caribbean, Black African and other ethnic groups. The proportion of non BME residents is expected to fall (2007-2011) by 1.2% with a corresponding 13.5% increase in the BME community (particularly Indian residents (23.), Black African (31.) and Chinese groups (37.). Again this may have implications for the targeting of AHA stock and its services. The ward is ranked the 11 th most deprived ward in Manchester (out of 354). The unemployment rate currently stands at 6.6% overall (significantly higher than Manchester & the UK as a whole) & is significantly higher amongst men than women (10% vs. ). 10% of residents are in receipt of incapacity benefit / severe disablement allowance and 14% are in receipt of income support (significantly higher than Manchester and England as a whole). Almost a tenth have no qualifications (again significantly higher than the region). The pregnancy rate of those aged under 18 is significantly higher in Moss Side than Manchester and England, as is the proportion of low birth weight babies born. In the Manchester Residents Survey (2007) a fifth of residents interviewed classed themselves as not in good health and a quarter regularly smoked cigarettes, again suggesting some form of smoking cessation campaign may be of use to AHA tenants. However, the proportion who drunk regularly was significantly lower than Manchester.

1.9 Summary Most of Adactus tenants are White although a fifth belong to a minority ethnic group. The average age of tenants is 50.8 years (compared to an average age of 35.1 for Manchester local authority) and the average tenant has been in their property around 8 years. Tenants in new lets are generally younger (almost half are aged under 44) with a slight male bias (as mirrored at CCH). The average tenancy balance for new tenants is 267 in arrears. Over the past two years the majority of evictees have been aged under 45 (with an average age of 32.9 years, significantly younger than the overall average age for AHA tenants). Most of these tenants have been White with a much shorter average length of tenancy (3.2 years). Tenants in arrears have a shorter average tenancy length and are most likely to be early on in their tenancy (i.e. tenants who have lived in their property 1-6 years). They are generally younger (but not significantly so) and are most likely to be aged between 25 and 54. Indeed, there appears to be a linear relationship between age and arrears (i.e. tenants aged under 24 are three times more likely to be in high levels of arrears than those aged 55-75). Five at risk groups have been identified with those aged 16-44 at most risk. Most of those in arrears fall in to debt early on in their tenancy and generally have long periods of arrears (with small periods of credit before quickly falling into arrears again). Those owing 500 or more rarely make regular payments and are in arrears for almost all of their tenancy. Payment is sporadic and payment method varies between payments. This could suggest it may be worthwhile exploring whether setting up a direct debit / standing order payment scheme could be made easier to encourage more regular and fixed payments. The findings on tenants in arrears could also be of use to the financial inclusion team / the income collection officers at the area offices. Within Manchester (the area where AHA has most of its stock) population gains are predicted to be most significant in the City Centre, Ardwick, Fallowfield, Ancoats & Clayton, Cheetham and Moss Side. Reflecting the national picture the region will get older and based on this, it would be logical to assume there will be a greater demand for a greater quantity (& higher quality) of sheltered housing (particularly in Wigan, Bolton and Bury where around half of household growth is predicted to be made up of households headed by those over 70). The population of men is also expected to increase at a slightly greater rate than that of women (this may explain why there has been a slight male bias in new lettings for AHA). This gender bias is mainly due to the large number of male foreign nationals moving into Manchester and surrounding areas in recent years (especially of those of working age). The Chinese, Black African and Asian Indian populations are expected to increase in Manchester (with a corresponding drop in the number of Black Caribbean residents, which currently form of AHA tenants). The BME community is expected to increase most in the City Centre, Ardwick, Moss Side, Fallowfield and Cheetham. In addition, both international and internal migration has been significantly higher within

Manchester than in the UK as a whole which could have important implications for Adactus. Adactus has a high concentration of stock in Miles Platting and Moss Side. All ethnic groups are groups in Miles Platting are expected to increase (particularly the Chinese community) and again this could have implications for Renaissance Stock. Initiatives could be set up to celebrate the different cultures amongst tenants and encourage community cohesion. Unemployment is currently high and almost a fifth are claiming benefits of some kind. Worklessness community projects (i.e. regenerative gardening / construction) and CV writing/self esteem workshops could be set up (working in partnership with local employment organisations) to target tenants in the area, enabling them to gain valuable skills and experience. This would also be useful in Moss Side which also has a high proportion of unemployed residents. The proportion of BME residents in Moss Side is predicted to rise in coming years (particularly Indian, Black African and Chinese groups). Again this could have implications for the type of stock most in demand in the area. The pregnancy rate of those aged under 18 is significantly higher in Moss Side than in Manchester as a whole. This could have implications for the levels of support offered to young single mothers in the area (i.e. parenting classes). The demographic data for AHA tenants (and for the region as a whole) could be used to feed into the business plan for AHA, as a foundation for setting up community initiatives and as a factor when making decisions on potentially widening AHA stock base in other areas of deprivation and low affordability. Further profiling (if resourced) is recommended for other areas of service including: Profiling of CRM requests (by request type, area and demographic profile). Profiling of repairs (particularly with the centralisation of the repairs service) both in terms of the number of repairs ordered and the value /average cost of repair (to focus on which stock is most expensive to maintain/is in a poorer condition/who and what type of tenant is reporting the most repairs? (analysis by dwelling type, demographic profile and management/lettings area). Further profiling of demographics and arrears by tenant group (i.e. sheltered/general needs split) and housing officer patch. Profiling of access to services/nearest GP surgery etc (to provide new and prospective tenants with who have just moved into/are moving into our homes).