OBSERVER Dubai Market Report Q2 / 2018
Services Report Highlights Valuations Mortgage and Secured Lending Portfolio Valuations Affordability is one of the key real estate trends being realised in 2018 and hence is a core theme in this report. With a large amount of supply set to enter the market, developers need to focus on catering to the largest and most active sectors, namely the midincome segment. To keep ticket prices of residential property affordable to this audience, developers have been offering competitive payment plans, as well as reducing unit sizes. This trend is already being seen in locations such as Dubailand, Dubai South, Al Furjan and Jumeriah Village Circle. Advisory and Research Financial Feasibilities Highest and Best Use Studies Market Research Conceptual Advisory and Project Positioning Studies Project Redevelopment/Repositioning Advisory Investment Strategies Acquisition and Disposal Sales and Leasing Commercial Industrial Residential Retail Property/Facilities Management Commercial MixedUse Residential Sales Prices The downward price corrections witnessed in Q1, continued throughout Q2. Average apartment sales prices are down 1% from the last quarter, whilst average villa sales prices have remained unchanged. Offplan sales, particularly in the midmarket segment, continue to dominate the market due to flexible and affordable payment plans turning many renters into buyers. International Properties London OffPlan Residential International Homes and Investments International Relocations Rental Prices Downward rental adjustments continue to take place in the Dubai market, due to several factors; additional stock being delivered thus providing more choices, some tenants purchasing their own properties due to the current affordability and conservative market sentiment. Average apartment rents are down 4% from the last quarter and average villa rents are down 2%. Transactions The number of completed (ready to move in) unit transactions decreased by 3% from the previous quarter, with a 21% increase in transaction value, indicating a lower volume of sales but for a higher ticket size. For offplan units, transactions increased by 5% from the previous quarter, with a 1 uplift in values. Market Outlook The watchword for 2018 is supply. Whilst the UAE is still experiencing population growth, property supply, however, is growing at a higher percentage than the population. This means the real estate market will most likely continue to soften throughout the rest of 2018. Residential Market Q2 2018 Snapshot Price Movements QoQ Ready Units Transactions Volumes Values 1% 3% +21% Rental Movements QoQ OffPlan Units Transactions Volumes Values 4% +5% +1 The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 1
Offplan residential sales continue to dominate the market. Residential Sales Prices and Quarterly Change 5% 4% The downward price corrections witnessed in Q1, continued throughout Q2. Average apartment sales prices are down 1% from the last quarter, whilst average villa sales prices have remained unchanged. residential prices picked up, owing to its good location and the fact investors are seeking alternatives to the higher priced Downtown and DIFC areas. AED SALES PRICES 942 923 985 960 2,205 2,298 1,204 1,195 988 991 3% 2% 1% 1% The continued decrease in apartment prices over the last few years has made the bigger units more affordable, hence there has been a lower number of transactions but a higher value of transactions. Offplan sales, particularly in the midmarket segment, continue to dominate the market due to flexible and affordable payment plans turning many renters into buyers. Arabian Ranches Jumeirah Park Palm Jumeirah The Lakes The Meadows/ The Springs Q1 2018 Q2 2018 QoQ Movement 3% Larger villas with high price points have generated limited interest from buyers, mainly due to the lower investment yields attached to this type of property and currently the main focus is on affordable units. Residential Sales Prices and Quarterly Change HOT TOPIC After the surge in offplan sales last year, Dubai regulators have proposed a policy whereby property developers will need a project to reach 50 per cent completion before they can commence offplan sales; currently the law stipulates only 20 per cent completion is required. This has been proposed due to concerns that the attractive payment plans on offer for some projects were leading to a rise in speculative buying. This proposal, if approved, is likely to slow down the pace of offplan launches which could help stem supply in the short term. 8% 1,683 1,680 6% 4% AED SALES PRICES 1,178 1,226 792 753 757 760 1,320 1,320 807 822 729 730 957 941 631 589 1,110 1,072 824 871 1,095 1,077 1,386 1,342 2% 4% 6% Discovery Gardens Land Dubai Motor Dubai Silicon Oasis Dubai Sports International JLT JVC The Greens The Views 8% Q1 2018 Q2 2018 QoQ Movement The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 2 The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 3
Supply is outpacing demand which is creating a tenantled market. Downward rental adjustments continue due to several factors; additional stock being delivered providing more choices, some tenants purchasing their own properties due to the current affordability and conservative market sentiment. Average apartment rents are down 4% from the last quarter and average villa rents are down 2%. As opposed to previous quarters, smaller units are also affected. Studio rentals dropped by an average of 5% and 1BR units by 4%. Residential Market Rent and Quarterly Change Prime established locations such as Jumeirah Golf Estates, DIFC and exhibit more resilience when it comes to both apartment and villa rental rates. The focus for developers and landlords going forward should be on quality as tenants will proactively seek out cheaper options or move to better quality units for the same price as their existing units. Residential Market Rent and Quarterly Change AED RENTAL PRICES 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Arabian Ranches The Springs Source: Propertyfinder & Chestertons The Meadows The Lakes Victory Heights Al Furjan JVT Jumeirah Islands 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR AVG Jumeirah Golf Estates Palm Jumeirah HOT TOPIC With the burgeoning volume of offplan investment stock entering the market that is destined to be made available for rent after handover the ability of the rental market to absorb a high volume of new stock will be tested over the next few years. Newly completed properties that are affordable, in good locations and offer decent facilities will command attention over older more expensive properties, essentially creating a twotier market. 2% 1% 1% 3% 4% 5% 250,000 1% AED RENTAL PRICES 200,000 150,000 100,000 3% 4% 5% 50,000 6% 7% DIFC Discovery Gardens Downtown Dubai Dubai Silicon Oasis Dubai Sports Dubailand International JLT JVC The Greens The Views Dubai Motor 8% Source: Propertyfinder & Chestertons Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR QoQ Change The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 4 The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 5
Developers are offering affordable, offplan units to appeal to the growing midincome sector. continued to be the most popular community in terms of completed unit transaction volumes and values while Dubailand dominated the offplan sales market. The number of completed (ready to move in) unit transactions decreased by 3% from the previous quarter, with a 21% increase in 6,000 transaction value, indicating a lower volume of5,000 sales but for a higher ticket size. 4,000 For offplan units, transactions increased by 5% from the previous quarter, with a 1 uplift in values. 3,000 2,000 of Residential Transactions Q2 2018 Volume HOT TOPIC Developers are increasingly offering competitive pricing and flexible payment plans as well as building smaller sized units at lower costs to cater to the midincome sector. In 2018, 72% of the property transactions accounted for units under 1,000 sq ft, predominantly studio and one bedroom apartments. 1,000 6,000 5,000 Q1 2018 4,000 Q2 2018 3,000 2,000 Figures in AED/Sq Ft 1,000 Offplan Ready Properties Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Value of Residential Transactions Q2 2018 6,000 5,000 Ready Properties Offplan 4,000 3,000 2,000 6.66 5.69 1,000 Q1 2018 The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 6 Q2 2018 6.66 Ready Properties 5.69 Offplan The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 7
Sales Transactions Completed Units Sales Transactions Offplan Units Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Volumes Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Volumes Dubai Sports International Emirates Living Palm Jumeirah Al Furjan Jumeirah Lake Towers 100 200 300 400 500 Meydan MBR The Lagoons Dubai South Al Quoz 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED) Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED) Palm Jumeirah Emirates Living Al Furjan Arabian Ranches Dubai Sports 200 400 600 800 1,000 The Lagoons MBR Meydan Al Quoz Jumeirah Bay Island 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 8 The Observer Dubai Residential Q2 2018 9
Contact Us Nick Witty, BSc (Hons) MRICS Managing DirectorMENA nick.witty@chestertons.com Adam Wilson BSc (Hons) MRICS ACIArb Director, Head of International Valuations adam.wilson@chestertons.com Vladimir Cvetinovic, MRICS Associate Director, Valuations & AdvisoryAUH vladimir.cvetinovic@chestertons.com Ivana Gazivoda Vucinic Head of Consulting Head of Valuation & Advisory Operations ivana.vucinic@chestertons.com Ellen Sleutjes Head of Property ManagementUAE ellen.sleutjes@chestertons.com Mena Head Office 1802, Blvd. Plaza Tower 1 Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Blvd. PO Box 28336, Dubai United Arab Emirates Office +9714 381 0200 Fax +9714 325 3359 Email uae.enquiry@chestertons.com Dubai Office 106, Rasis Business Center, Al Barsha 1 PO Box 283361, Dubai United Arab Emirates Office +9714 392 7818 Email dubai@chestertons.com Abu Dhabi Office Office M01, Mezzanine Floor Al Ghazal Building (Above Al Hilal Bank) Khalifa Park PO Box 128983, Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates Office +9712 447 3100 Fax +9712 441 6200 Email abudhabi@chestertons.com Disclaimer: All articles and data presented herein is intended for information purposes and has been compiled from sources deemed reliable including the Valuations and Research Department of Chestertons, sales and leasing staff, published data, and secondary sources. Though information is believed to be correct, materials presented is subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice. www.chestertonsmena.com