Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, July 2016 Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois July 21, 2016 Contact: Geoffrey Hewings 217-333-4740 (hewings@illinois.edu) Xian Fang 217-244-7226 (fang21@illinois.edu)
Housing Forecast June 2016 2 Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, July 2016 The Housing Market In June, both sales and median prices experienced positive growth. 18,593 houses were sold in Illinois, up 13.63% from a month ago and up by 1.4% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 13,620 houses were sold, up 15.1% from a month ago and up 2.1% from a year ago. The median price was $204,000 in Illinois, up 5.8% from June last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $242,500, up 4.6% from this time last year. In June, for the Chicago PMSA, the percentage of foreclosed sales (e.g. REOs) among the total sales was 11.5%, the lowest June reading since 2009. 12,287 regular sales were made, 7.5% more than last year. 1,254 foreclosed properties were sold, 31.8% less than last year. The median price was $252,000 for regular property sales, 0.8% more than last year; the comparable figure for the foreclosed properties was $152,777, up 16.1% from this time last year. Sale prices in June 2008 have been adjusted to 2016 values to enable calculation of the housing price recovery taking into account the effects of inflation. In Illinois, the June 2008 median sale price was $198,995 (in $2008) and $219,551 (in $2016); the current price level was 93% of the 2008 level after adjusting (103% before adjusting). In the Chicago PMSA, the June 2008 median sale price is $255,000 (in $2008) and $281,342 (in $2016); the comparable figure for price recovery in June 2016 is 86% after adjustment (95% before adjusting). According to average annual growth rates of prices in the past months, it could take about 1.2~1.5 years (14~19 months) for Illinois and 2.5~4.2 years (30~51 months) for the Chicago PMSA to recover to the 2008 levels. The sales forecast for July, August and September 2016 suggests moderate growth on a yearly basis and negative growth on a monthly basis. Annually for Illinois, the three-month average forecasts point to a change of about 6.1%-8.3%; for the Chicago PMSA, the change will range from 8.2% to 11.1%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to decrease by 5.7%-7.8% for Illinois and decrease by 5.6%-7.6% for the Chicago PMSA. The pending home sales index is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This June, the number of homes put under contract was greater than last year but similar to last month. The pending home sales index is 200.7 (2008=100) in Illinois, down 0.5% from last month and up 14.2% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 240.1, up 2.2% from a month ago and up 19.8% from a year ago. The median price forecast indicates moderate annual growth in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA for July, August and September. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 6.9% in July, 9.3% in August and 8.3% in September. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.3% in July, 7.1% in August and 5.2% in September. As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 1 forecasts slightly milder growth trend for Illinois but stronger growth for the Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 6.3% in July, 8.6% in August and 7.2% in September. The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 8.2% in July, 10.3% in August and 10.3% in September. 1 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details.
Housing Forecast June 2016 3 REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. While home values overall are appreciating, many neighborhoods are still experiencing the difficulty in recovering their home values. According to a post on Chicago Tribune, more than 20% of Chicago homeowners are underwater while the comparable figure for the state is 14%. Starting from August 1, Illinois Housing Development Authority will be to provide financial support to about 1,800 local underwater homeowners with $25,000 on average to relieve their mortgage debts. Illinois received $45.7 million from the U.S. Treasury Department s Hardest Hit Program. Given the turbulence in the global economy, the mortgage interest rates are not showing signs of increase. The trend of mortgage rates tend to follow the trend of the treasury yield. Right after the Brexit vote, mortgage rate had declined following the drop of the treasury yield. However, when the treasury yield rebounded a few weeks later, the home mortgage rates didn t rebound much. In June, more people believe mortgage rates will go down, according to the survey conducted by Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). The Housing Market Current Condition In June, both sales and median prices experienced positive growth. 18,593 houses were sold in Illinois, up 13.63% from a month ago and up by 1.4% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 13,620 houses were sold, up 15.1% from a month ago and up 2.1% from a year ago. The median price was $204,000 in Illinois, up 5.8% from June last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $242,500, up 4.6% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for July 2016 report table) In June, for the Chicago PMSA, the percentage of foreclosed sales (e.g. REOs) among the total sales was 11.5%, the lowest June reading since 2009. 12,287 regular sales were made, 7.5% more than last year. 1,254 foreclosed properties were sold, 31.8% less than last year. The median price was $252,000 for regular property sales, 0.8% more than last year; the comparable figure for the foreclosed properties was $152,777, up 16.1% from this time last year. In June, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.7 months 2 (down from 5.9 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 3.5 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). Months of supply for homes in all price ranges but Above $700K experienced declines both in Illinois and the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months Supply by Price Range figures) In June, the market shares of homes priced at the low end (<$100K) experienced the largest change compared to a year ago. In Illinois, the market share for homes less than $100K decreased to 17.1% from 19.4% a year ago; the comparative figure for the Chicago PMSA showed a decrease to 9.5% from 12.3% a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) 2 Months supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months.
Housing Forecast June 2016 4 The Housing Market Forecast and Future Condition The median price forecast indicates moderate annual growth in both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA for July, August and September. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 6.9% in July, 9.3% in August and 8.3% in September. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.3% in July, 7.1% in August and 5.2% in September. (Reference: Forecast for July 2016 report table) As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI 3 forecasts slightly milder growth trend for Illinois but stronger growth for the Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 6.3% in July, 8.6% in August and 7.2% in September. The comparable figures for the Chicago PMSA are 8.2% in July, 10.3% in August and 10.3% in September. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable baskets of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index) The sales forecast for July, August and September 2016 suggests moderate growth on a yearly basis and negative growth on a monthly basis. Annually for Illinois, the three-month average forecasts point to a change of about 6.1%-8.3%; for the Chicago PMSA, the change will range from 8.2% to 11.1%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to decrease by 5.7%-7.8% for Illinois and decrease by 5.6%-7.6% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for July 2016 report table) The pending home sales index 4 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This June, the number of homes put under contract was greater than last year but similar to last month. The pending home sales index is 200.7 (2008=100) in Illinois, down 0.5% from last month and up 14.2% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 240.1, up 2.2% from a month ago and up 19.8% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure) In June 2016, 1,640 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 18.2% and 5.6% respectively from a year and a month ago). 1,306 foreclosures were completed 5 (down 18.0% and up 10.7% respectively from a year and a month ago). As of June 2016, there are 40,303 homes at some stage of foreclosure the foreclosure inventory. The average inventory change rates 6 were 0.7% in the past 6 months, 1.4% in the last 12 months and 1.5% in the last 24 months. Given these positive rates of changes, the inventory is projected to increase (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Activity and Inventory figures). The Economy In June 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate increased to 4.9% and nonfarm payroll jobs experienced little gain of 287,000 jobs. The employment growth was led by leisure and hospitality (59,000), followed by health care and social assistance (58,000) and financial activities (16,000). 3 REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for further details. 4 The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year 2008. 5 Including estimated foreclosure completions that are missing in the data. 6 The range of months used for calculating the average change rates are modified from the 6/12/24 months scenarios to 3/6/9 months scenarios since Aug 2014.
Housing Forecast June 2016 5 In May 2016, the one-year-ahead forecast for Illinois indicates that the non-farm employment will increase at a rate between 0.43% and 0.61%, corresponding to job gain between 25,900 and 36,600. Three out of ten sectors are forecast with positive job growth: construction (1.10%; 2,400), professional and business services (2.89%; 26,900), education and health (1.35%; 12,300), and leisure and hospitality (1.00%; 5,900). Longer-term Outlook In June, both consumer sentiment indexes pointed in opposite directions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 98.0 from 92.4 a month ago while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 93.5 from 94.7 last month. In June, Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased to 83.2 from 85.3. Compared to last month, both Good Time to Sell (5 points) and Good Time to Buy (3 points) increased. At the same time, more people believe mortgage rates will go down and less people believe that home prices will go up. This index uses information from their National Housing Survey collecting consumers feeling and opinions on home purchasing, directions and conditions of the housing market, finance conditions and the job market. The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 92.9 in May from 92.0 in April. The increase is attributed to the job growth in the nonmanufacturing sector and to the improved retail activities in the Chicago area. Another month of modest gains in both sales and prices, said Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. The outlook for the next three months suggests annual growth but the month-to-month changes in sales point to some potential declines in sales, but not prices.
Housing Forecast June 2016 6 Forecast for July 2016 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Apr-16 10.1% 11.0% 19.2% 21.7% May-16 7.5% 9.1% 13.6% 14.1% Jun-16 1.4% 2.1% 13.6% 15.1% 3 Month Avg. 5.9% 6.8% 15.2% 16.6% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Monthly Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Jun-16 4.0% 5.5% 4.7% 6.3% -2.2% -3.0% -1.8% -2.4% Jul-16 8.8% 11.9% 11.0% 14.9% -5.2% -7.0% -5.3% -7.2% Aug-16 5.7% 7.7% 9.6% 12.9% -10.2% -13.8% -10.2% -13.8% 3 Month Avg. 6.1% 8.3% 8.2% 11.1% -5.7% -7.8% -5.6% -7.6% SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Apr-16 $186,000 $230,000 Apr-15 $169,000 $208,000 May-16 $193,000 $233,700 May-15 $181,000 $221,000 Jun-16 $204,000 $242,500 Jun-15 $192,500 $231,700 Jul-16 $203,098 $239,142 Jul-15 $190,000 $225,000 Aug-16 $196,712 $235,545 Aug-15 $180,000 $220,000 Sep-16 $185,740 $218,261 Sep-15 $171,500 $207,500 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois Chicago PMSA Illinois Chicago PMSA Apr-16 10.1% 10.6% Apr-15 9.0% 9.5% May-16 6.6% 5.7% May-15 8.1% 7.0% Jun-16 5.8% 4.6% Jun-15 7.5% 5.3% Jul-16 6.9% 6.3% Jul-15 6.1% 3.2% Aug-16 9.3% 7.1% Aug-15 2.9% 2.3% Sep-16 8.3% 5.2% Sep-15 5.9% 6.4%
Housing Forecast June 2016 7 Median Prices and Recovery Illinois Chicago PMSA [$2008] [$2015] [$2008] [$2015] June 2008 Median Price $198,995 $219,551 $255,000 $281,342 June 2016 Median Price $184,900 $204,000 $219,795 $242,500 Price Ratio (June 16/June 08) Adjusted 0.93 Adjusted 0.86 Unadjusted 1.03 Unadjusted 0.95 Recovery Forecasts using Annually Growth Rates Illinois Chicago PMSA Annual Years to Years to Recovery Rate Recovery Rate* Recover** Recover Current Month 4.9% 1.5 3.6% 4.2 Past 3 months 6.4% 1.2 5.8% 2.6 Past 6 months 6.1% 1.2 5.6% 2.7 Past 9 months 6.1% 1.2 6.2% 2.5 Past 12 months 5.8% 1.3 5.6% 2.7 *Annual recovery rate is the average of annual change rates in past months ** Years to recover is calculated using the following formula: Price June2016 *(1+recovery rate)^years=price June2008. Prices used in the formula are inflation adjusted. The recovery rate is applied as a constant annual change rate to recoup the differences between the current month and its corresponding month in 2008.
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