Core Housing Need Data from the 2006 Census Presentation to the NHRC Working Group on Housing Data Roger Lewis Policy and Research Division Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation May 5, 2009
Introduction Definitions and concepts: Acceptable housing and core housing need 2006 data what s new? Recent and planned CMHC releases: Research Highlights Housing in Canada Online (HiCO) Findings from selected Research Highlights: Core housing need Household incomes and shelter costs CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2
Definitions and Concepts ACCEPTABLE HOUSING refers to housing that is adequate in condition, suitable in size, and affordable. Adequate housing does not require any major repairs, according to residents. Suitable housing has enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of resident households, according to National Occupancy Standard (NOS) requirements. Affordable housing costs less than 30% of before-tax household income. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3
Definitions and Concepts A household is in CORE HOUSING NEED if: its housing does not meet one or more of the adequacy, suitability, or affordability standards, and it would have to spend 30% or more of its before-tax income to pay the median rent of alternative local market housing that meets all three standards. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4
2006 Data What s New? Extensive verification of 2006 data tables: Inspection of computer logic, creation of test tables absence of published benchmarks Changes associated with 2006 Census: Elimination of distinction between full-time and part-time school attendance slight reduction in core housing need estimates (all student households excluded from core housing need instead of only full-time student households) Improved application of National Occupancy Standard for large households slight reduction in crowding (< 1,000 households) Corrections to Métis and Inuit household definitions After-tax statistics available for the first time household incomes, shelter-cost-to-income ratios (STIRs) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 5
CMHC releases February 2009 Research Highlights: 2006 Census Housing Series Issue 2 The Geography of Core Housing Need, 2001-2006 Issue 3 The Adequacy, Suitability, and Affordability of Canadian Housing, 1991-2006 Housing in Canada Online (HiCO) HiCO updated with 2006 data 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 data An interactive tool to build custom data tables on housing conditions and needs Accessed through Canadian Housing Observer pages of CMHC website CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6
Future Research Highlights and Data Products Research Highlights (2006 Census Housing Series) shelter costs and incomes, metropolitan areas, Aboriginals, severe needs, seniors, immigrants, and other topics Update of Housing Observer tables (Excel format) 2006 data on Aboriginal housing conditions, core housing need Chapter in 2009 Housing Observer on core housing need in 2006 Custom data requests: Contact: Jeremiah Prentice (jprentic@cmhc-schl.gc.ca) Or use the Contact Us link in HiCO (HiCO-LaCel@cmhc.ca) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7
The Economy: Job Creation and Unemployment Rate, Canada, 1990-2008 4 Annual change (per cent) Per cent 14 3 12 2 10 1 8 0 6-1 4-2 -3 Employment growth (left scale) Unemployment rate (right scale) 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2 0 Employment growth is calculated based on average monthly employment in successive years. Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8
Core Housing Need, Canada, 1991-2006 (Highlight #2) Per cent of households in core housing need 35 31.7 30 All households Owners Renters 25 26.6 28.3 27.2 20 15.6 15 13.6 13.7 12.7 10 5 6.0 6.9 6.6 6.3 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9
Core Housing Need - Observations Improvements in core housing need since 1996 reflected the strengthening economy. From 2001 to 2006, the percentage of households in core housing need fell in most provinces and territories, except Saskatchewan, Yukon, and Northwest Territories. The drop in the incidence of core housing need from 2001 to 2006 was generally less pronounced than from 1996 to 2001. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10
Core Housing Need, Provinces and Territories, 2006 Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Yukon Territory Northwest Territories Nunavut 12.7 14.2 12.6 12.1 10.3 10.6 14.5 11.3 11.8 10.1 14.6 16.3 17.5 37.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Per cent of households in core housing need Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 11
Core Housing Need, Metropolitan Areas (West), 2006 Canada 12.7 Vancouver 17.0 Abbotsford Victoria 12.9 12.4 Kelowna Edmonton Winnipeg Regina Saskatoon Calgary 11.1 10.6 10.4 9.6 9.3 9.0 0 5 10 15 20 Per cent of households in core housing need Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 12
Core Housing Need, Metropolitan Areas (Ontario), 2006 Canada Toronto Peterborough Barrie Hamilton London Kingston Windsor St. Catharines-Niagara Ottawa-Gatineau Guelph Oshawa Brantford Thunder Bay Kitchener Greater Sudbury 10.9 10.3 10.0 12.1 11.8 11.6 11.4 12.7 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.2 14.0 13.5 19.0 0 5 10 15 20 Per cent of households in core housing need Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 13
Core Housing Need, Metropolitan Areas (East), 2006 Canada Halifax St. John's Montréal Trois-Rivières 12.7 13.6 13.5 12.6 12.3 Moncton 10.8 Saint John Sherbrooke Québec 9.6 9.5 9.3 Saguenay 8.2 0 5 10 15 20 Per cent of households in core housing need Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 14
Highlight #3 Housing Standards Focus on two groups: 1. Households living in acceptable housing 2. Households not living in acceptable housing: Households able or unable to access acceptable housing Households unable to access acceptable housing are in core housing need: they would have to spend 30% or more of before-tax income to pay the median rent of alternative local market housing CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 15
Housing Acceptability, Canada, 1991-2006 Per cent of all households 70 60 1991 1996 2001 2006 50 40 30 20 10 Living in acceptable housing Not living in acceptable housing but able to access acceptable housing Unable to access acceptable housing - in core need Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) Households not in acceptable housing CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 16
The Three Housing Standards Affordability is consistently the standard that Canadian housing is least likely to meet. Suitability (crowding) is the standard met most often, followed closely by adequacy (state of repair). CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 17
Housing Affordability, Canada, 1991-2006 Per cent of all households 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Living in affordable housing Not living in affordable housing but able to access acceptable housing 1991 1996 2001 2006 Unable to access acceptable housing - in core need Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) Households not in affordable housing CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 18
Housing Suitability, Canada, 1991-2006 Per cent of all households 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Living in suitable housing Not living in suitable housing but able to access acceptable housing 1991 1996 2001 2006 Unable to access acceptable housing - in core need Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) Households not in suitable housing CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 19
Housing Adequacy, Canada, 1991-2006 Per cent of all households 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Living in adequate housing Not living in adequate housing but able to access acceptable housing 1991 1996 2001 2006 Unable to access acceptable housing - in core need Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) Households not in adequate housing CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 20
Access to Acceptable Housing, Households in Substandard Housing, Canada, 2001 and 2006 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Unable to access acceptable housing Able to access acceptable housing 10% 0% 2001 2006 2001 2006 2001 2006 2001 2006 Unacceptable housing Unaffordable housing Unsuitable housing Inadequate housing Substandard housing by type of deficiency Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 21
Core Housing Need by Cause Affordability is by far the most common reason for falling into core housing need. Canada, 2006 Affordability In 2006, 89.5% of households in core housing need spent 30% or more of their before-tax incomes on shelter. Adequacy Suitability Source: CMHC (Census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 22
Housing Standards Provinces and Territories Most provinces and territories show similar patterns to Canada as whole: Affordability is the most pressing housing issue; Suitability is the standard most likely to be met. Nunavut shows striking differences: Highest percentage of households in core housing need Canada; Crowding is the most common housing problem (nearly a third of households live in unsuitable housing). CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 23
Home Ownership Rate, Canada, 1971-2006 70 Owners as a per cent of all households 68.4 68 66 65.8 64 63.6 62 61.8 62.1 62.1 62.6 60 60.3 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Canada) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 24
Housing Completions, Canada, 1990-2008 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 Thousands 80 60 40 20 0 Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 25
Real Change in Average MLS Residential Prices and Average Rents, Canada, 1991-2006 50 Per cent change 40 30 20 10 0-10 Average MLS price Average rent onebedroom Average rent twobedroom Average rent 3+ bedroom 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. Rents are for privately initiated apartments of three units or more. Source: CMHC (Rental Market Survey) and adapted from CREA (MLS ) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 26
Highlight #4 (forthcoming) - Shelter Costs and Incomes Shelter costs include the following: for renters - rent and any payments for electricity, fuel, water and other municipal services; and for owners - mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes, and any condominium fees, along with payments for electricity, fuel, water and other municipal services. Household incomes before taxes: sum of the incomes of all household members CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 27
Income and Shelter Cost Growth Distinct patterns in each intercensal period: 1991-96: shelter costs increased faster than incomes 1996-01: as economy improved, incomes increased faster than shelter costs 2001-06: growth in shelter costs caught up to growth in incomes CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 28
Growth in Household Income and Shelter Costs, By Tenure, Canada, 1991-2001 Per cent change 1991-1996 Per cent change 1996-2001 25 25 20 20 15 Household income Shelter costs 15 Household income Shelter costs 10 10 5 5 0 Owners Renters All households 0 Owners Renters All households Income growth refers to the periods 1990-1995 and 1995-2000. Incomes are before taxes. Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 29
Growth in Household Income and Shelter Costs, By Tenure, Canada, 2001-2006 25 Per cent change 2001-2006 Household income Shelter costs 20 15 10 5 0 Owners Renters All households Income growth refers to the period 2000-2005. Incomes are before taxes. Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 30
Shelter-Cost-to-Income Ratios (STIRs), Canada, 1991-2006 35 Average STIR All households Owners Renters 30 25 20 15 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: CMHC (census-based housing indicators and data) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 31
Conclusion The incidence of core housing need has broadly paralleled the general fortunes of the Canadian economy. Changes in shelter costs and household incomes reflect economic and housing market developments. Current economic difficulties will influence future estimates of core housing need. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 32
Data in HiCO Household data (number, av. income, av. shelter costs, av. STIR) Housing standards (crowding, major repairs, shelter costs 30%) Core housing need status Tenure (own, rent) Age of Maintainer (15-29, 30-44, 45-64, 65+) Household Type (Family, Multiple-family, Non-family) Aboriginal households Senior-led households 20 years -- 1991-2006 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 33
Provinces Geography Census Agglomerations (CAs) Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) Census Divisions (CDs) Census Sub-Divisions (CSDs) Communautés Urbaines (Que); Regional Districts (BC); Regional Municipalities (NS, ON, AB) Rural/Urban (< 2,500, 2,500 +) Small Urban Communities (2,500 10,000) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 34