housing for our future a stronger community, region, and state
Outline Existing conditions Where does Hanover fit in and how does it compare? Working towards solutions
Who is MHP? MISSION: Use private investment to bring more affordable housing to Massachusetts Multifamily Lending Permanent financing for affordable rental housing We have provided over $1.1 billion for the financing of 22,000 rental units ONE Mortgage First time homebuyer program Over 19,300 low- and moderate-income families have purchased their first homes with over $3.1 billion in private financing
MHP Community Assistance OUR MISSION: To increase the supply of affordable housing by fostering local leadership and providing technical support to municipalities, non-profits and local housing authorities OUR WORK: Direct Technical Assistance to municipalities, municipal affordable housing trusts, housing authorities and non-profits Grant Programs to support technical assistance Workshops & Trainings 40B Technical Assistance Grants Publications Special Initiatives & Policy
Act I: Here s Hanover Act II: Where do you fit in and how do you compare? Act III: Working towards solutions
Hanover You have a lot going for you
But you re also facing pressure Lack of housing choice Increasing senior population Expensive Declining young population From Hanover s 2017 Draft Master Plan- Housing Chapter
Listening to demand Atlanta, GA Salisbury, MA Weymouth, MA Manchester-by-the-Sea, MA
Hanover growth over time 1939 2010 2000 1970 1960 1990 1980 1950 1940 or or - 1979 1969 earlier 1999 1989 1959 1949 2009 later 6000 Cumulative Homes in Hanover 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 = approx. 1% Data source: US Census ACS Data on Year Built for Residential Buildings, 2011-2015
It seems like we will never be able to afford to buy a house You can be a homebuyer like we were at your age you just have to work hard and save!
YESTERDAY $38,366* 18 34 year olds median income in Plymouth County (1980) $196,250* Hanover Median Home Price (1987) 43% National % of Students Graduate with Debt $12,246* Average debt per student* $39,565 TODAY 18 34 year olds median income in Plymouth County (2013) $450,000 Hanover Median Home Price (2016) 68% (61% in MA) National % of Students Graduate with Debt $30,100 ($30,584) Average debt per student *Adjusted for inflation using Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation calculator
Act I: Here s Hanover Act II: Where do you fit in and how do you compare? Act III: Working towards solutions
Hanover is not an island
Hanover residents work in regional industries Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, 5-year American Community Survey Estimates 2011-2015
And many commute outside the region to get to work Work within the county Work outside the county 52% 48% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Drive alone Public transit Carpool Work from home Walk Motorcycle, taxi, bike, other 81% 8% 5% 5% 1% <1% Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, 5-year American Community Survey Estimates 2011-2015
Leveling off
And getting older working age population Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program Hanover has high proportions of children aged 1-14 and adults aged 40-50, and low proportions of young adults aged 20-34 The south shore has a less pronounced concentration of young children and 40-50 yearolds, and a relatively higher proportion of young adults Statewide, there are higher concentrations of young adults, and lower concentrations of children and older adults than in Hanover and the south shore
4% school enrollment decline over the past decade Hanover experienced a 6% decline in enrollment Ten Year Change in school enrollment 2007-2016 Data source: MA Department of Education
Less diverse than the region and state Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, 5-year American Community Survey 2011-2015. The U.S. Census Bureau must adhere to the 1997 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) standards on race and ethnicity
Building less and less 35,000 Annual Housing Production in Massachusetts by Decade 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Multifamily Single Family Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permit Survey
House Price Index -- 1980 = 100 800 700 600 500 400 Housing prices pulling away U.S. Massachusetts California Washington State Oregon Colorado New York 300 200 100 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Data source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, House Price Index All Transactions
Thousands How much does Hanover cost? $500 $450 $400 $350 Median Home Sale Price Hanover Plymouth County Massachusetts $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Data source: Banker and Tradesman, TownStats
Who can afford to live in Hanover? 25% 20% Income Distribution Current Hanover Residents Couldn t afford current median home price Could afford current median home price 49% 51% 15% 10% 5% 0% Less than $10k $10k - 14k $15k - 24k $25k - 34k $35k - 49k $50k - 74k $75k - 99k ADD DATA SOURCE! $100k - 149k $150k - 199k $200k +
Hanover s homeownership market has a high entry point, and many Hanover renters are struggling around affordability Owners Renters 84% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Not Cost Burdened Cost Burdened 8% 11% 81% 24% 19% Severely cost burdened households spend more than 50% of their income on housing. Cost burdened households spend more than 30% of their income on housing. Severely Cost Burdened 57% Owners Renters Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, 5-year American Community Survey 2011-2015
Hanover s housing stock is mostly single-family homes 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Multifamily 10% 1-2 family 90% Building Type % of total units Single-family 88% Two-family 2% 3-4 unit building 2% 5-9 unit building 2% 10-19 unit building 2% 20-49 unit building 2% 50+ unit building 2% 0% Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, 5-year American Community Survey 2011-2015
Projected supply of housing ADD DATA SOURCE
The coming wave
We could lose our edge
Not striking a balance Since 2010, Massachusetts has added approximately Date sources: US Census ACS, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
We used to plan differently
Housing impacts business Northeastern University survey (April 2017) Over 2/3 of employers surveyed claim home prices and rental costs have affected their ability to recruit qualified candidates. The Boston Foundation poll (June 2017) 80 percent of respondents feel that Greater Boston is becoming increasingly unaffordable for middle class families. MassEcon report (March 2017) High housing costs and housing availability are a major concern of businesses looking to expand or relocate. 32
Housing and Municipal Budgets
Real Increase What about those kids? How are we thinking about school costs and new housing? Declining enrollment means capacity Hard to predict new students by development- Westford example School budget increases are usually impact by fixed costs, not student Per student costs Housing growth scenario 1 School Cost Patterns Enrollment Year over year Fixed costs Housing growth scenario 2
Act I: Here s Hanover Act II: Where do you fit in and how do you compare? Act III: Working towards solutions
Challenges Political opposition Fear of change Infrastructure
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Towns make it harder with local regulation Increase in local regulations 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Title V adopted Prop 21/2 adopted Title V revised 0% Septic Rule Wetland Rule Growth Cap Source: Pioneer Institute Housing Regulation Database for Massachusetts Municipalities in Greater Boston 37
Resources are available CPA funds Trust initiatives MHP Technical Assistance Town-owned land Zoning for housing variety as of right
Hanover 2008 Master Plan Revise the Zoning Bylaw to include a mandatory or incentivized Open Space Residential Development (OSRD) or Cluster Development requirement for any new residential development in Town, including subdivisions and mixed use development, without age restriction. a mandatory or incentivized traditional New England village-style Mixed Use development and office-uses [ ]
From 2008 Hanover Master Plan Open Space/Cluster Development
Inclusionary Zoning Adaptive reuse of a school in Beverly built under an inclusionary zoning bylaw.
Housing Toolbox www.housingtoolbox.org
Mixed-Use Development Cambridge apartments with first floor retail Hingham Shipyard
Accessory Dwelling Units Plan for detached ADU in Washington DC North Shore home with attached ADU Detached ADU in Northampton, MA
What s happening elsewhere? Plymouth: Pine Hills
What s happening elsewhere? Concord: Riverwalk, town-level efforts
Needham Crossing What s happening elsewhere? Needham: Overlay mixed-use district Trip Advisor Charles River Landing
What s happening elsewhere? Westford: Cottage development, multifamily zoning efforts
Changing the Conversation
You re not alone
Contact information Susan Connelly Director of Community Assistance Massachusetts Housing Partnership sconnelly@mhp.net 617-330-9955