Housing Study & Needs Assessment Phase II Public Engagement Presentation #2 Winston-Salem, North Carolina January 25, 2018
MEETING OVERVIEW Welcome & Introductions Purpose & Goals Community Discussions Next Steps Presentation Topics: Housing Quality Housing Costs & Affordability Land Use & Development Costs Housing & Transit
Housing Assessment Approach Housing Study & Needs Assessment Plan & Timeline Phase 1 Existing & future conditions analysis October 2017 Phase 2 Housing Affordability, Costs & Transit Analysis Resource and Capacity Alignment December 2017 Phase 3 Strategy development, Recommendations & Delivery March 2018 Public & Stakeholder Engagement Page 3
Housing Quality & Age of Housing
Extremely Low Income Black Households Have More Housing Problems Compared to Other Races Extremely Low Income Households - Housing Problems by Race White Renter Households Black/African American Households Hispanic (any race) Other All Extremely Low Income Households w/ Housing Problems All Renter Units w/ Housing Problems All Renter Units Renters Number of Units 2,175 5,320 1,160 255 8,910 21,340 40,995 % With Housing Problems 24.4% 59.7% 13.0% 2.9% All Owner Units w/ Housing Problems Owners Number of Units 1,110 710 155 75 2,050 12,535 51,575 % With Housing Problems 54.1% 34.6% 7.6% 3.7% Total 3,285 6,030 1,315 330
Very Low Income Black Households Have More Housing Problems Compared to Other Races Very Low Income Households - Housing Problems by Race White Renter Households Black/African American Households Hispanic (any race) Other All Very Low Income Households w/ Housing Problems All Renter Units w/ Housing Problems All Renter Units Renters Number of Units 1,510 3,285 1,595 330 6,720 21,340 40,995 % With Housing Problems 22.5% 48.9% 4.9% All Owner Units w/ Housing Problems Owners Number of Units 1,390 870 425 14 2,700 12,535 51,575 % With Housing Problems 51.5% 32.2% 15.7% 0.5% Total Units 2,900 4,155 2,020 344 9,419
Low Income Households - Housing Problems by Race White Renter Households Black/African American Households Hispanic (any race) Other All Low Income Households w/ Housing Problems All Renter Units w/ Housing Problems All Renter Units Renters Number of Units 1,495 2,150 525 155 4,325 21,340 40,995 % With Housing Problems 34.6% 49.7% 12.1% 3.6% All Owner Units w/ Housing Problems All Owner Units Owners Number of Units 1,845 1,235 440 34 3,554 12,535 51,575 % With Housing Problems 51.9% 34.7% 12.4% 1.0% Total Units 3,340 3,385 965 189 7,879 Low Income Black Households Have More Housing Problems Compared to Other Races
Moderate Income and Upper Households White Households Have More Housing Problems Compared to Other Races Moderate and Greater Income Households - Housing Problems by Race White Renter Households Black/African American Households Hispanic (any race) Other All Moderate Income Households w/ Housing Problems All Renter Units w/ Housing Problems All Renter Units Number of Units 835 Renters 335 205 10 1,390 21,340 40,995 % With Housing Problems 60.1% 24.1% 14.7% 0.7% All Owner Units w/ Housing Problems Owners Number of Units 2,840 1,080 190 135 4,240 12,535 51,575 % With Housing Problems 67.0% 25.5% 4.5% 3.2% Total Units 3,675 1,415 395 145 5,630
Housing Quality Snapshot What zip code areas reflect aging properties in Winston-Salem? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 3% 2% 9% 8% 5% 5% 7% 19% 26% 12% 19% 33% Age of Housing by Zip Code Winston-Salem 3% 2% 5% 7% 27% 38% 4% 8% 4% 8% 8% 14% 34% 28% 30% 10% 7% 7% 14% 23% 28% 50% 40% 30% 47% 42% 48% 40% 39% 47% 36% 43% 35% 40% 36% 20% 10% 0% 26% 26% 11% 13% 15% 17% 18% 12% 16% 19% 14% 27009 27012 27018 27019 27021 27023 27040 27043 27045 27050 27051 Yr Structure Built 2000-2009 % Yr Structure Built 1980-1999 % Yr Structure Built 1960-1979 % Yr Structure Built 1940-1959 % Yr Structure Built 1939 or Earlier %
Housing Quality Snapshot What zip code areas reflect aging properties in Winston-Salem? Age of Housing by Zip Code Winston-Salem 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1.5% 2.7% 1.7% 3.4% 6.0% 6.0% 20.0% 8.0% 7.4% 8.8% 6.0% 8.1% 10.6% 7.3% 5.7% 11.2% 8.1% 8.2% 17.6% 16.4% 16.6% 15.2% 25.9% 21.9% 16.3% 27.0% 16.9% 27.6% 21.0% 38.7% 20.7% 30.1% 31.9% 32.2% 30.4% 37.8% 35.2% 41.3% 32.6% 40.1% 28.8% 44.5% 22.2% 32.8% 28.7% 35.8% 20.4% 39.2% 17.9% 31.4% 27.1% 20.2% 15.8% 18.7% 14.6% 8.5% 8.2% 9.6% 23.9% 27.6% 27052 27101 27103 27104 27105 27106 27107 27127 27235 27265 27284 27357 Yr Structure Built 2000-2009 % Yr Structure Built 1980-1999 % Yr Structure Built 1960-1979 % Yr Structure Built 1940-1959 % Yr Structure Built 1939 or Earlier %
Housing Quality Snapshot KEY THEMES More Black/African American low income owner & renter households have more housing problems than other races More White moderate to upper income owner & renter households have more housing problems than other races. Zip Code 27101 maintains the largest share of older properties in the City (20.0%) Largest share of properties were built in the 1960 to 1979 period; and 1980 to 1999
HOUSING COSTS & AFFORDABILITY
Which Income Groups are Cost-Burdened - Families Paying More Than 30% of Their Income on Housing Costs? Housing Cost Burden - Percent of All Occupied Housing Units, Winston-Salem, 2015 90 80 70 60 85.7% Less than 20% of Income 20% - 29% of Income 30% or more 52.0% Overall, in Winston- Salem more than onethird of all households pay more than 30% of their income for housing. 50 41.3% 40 30 25.6 35.5% 20 10 10.8% 0 < $20,000 $20,000 TO $34,999 $35,000 TO $49,999 $50,000 TO $74,999 $75,000 and greater Total
Housing Cost Burden for All Occupied Units in Winston-Salem, By Income Group, 2015 Income Group Housing Cost Burden Forsyth County Winston Salem NRSA Downtown Less than $20,000 Less than 20% 1,293 968 573 16 20%-29% 2,828 2,233 1,197 203 30% or More 22,979 19,247 9,884 812 $20,000 to $34,999 Less than 20% 4,874 3,437 1,424 68 20%-29% 7,683 6,150 2,248 88 30% or More 13,578 10,653 3,537 251 $35,000 to $49,999 Less than 20% 7,344 5,330 1,654 84 20%-29% 7,665 5,808 2,203 65 30% or More 4,997 3,834 1,217 43 $50,000 to $74,999 Less than 20% 13,141 9,547 2,737 111 20%-29% 8,242 6,047 1,732 55 30% or More 2,823 1,882 541 29 $75,000 and More Less than 20% 34,354 22,976 4,555 380 20%-29% 5,824 3,475 743 35 30% or More 1,295 717 101 12 Total Less than 20% 61,006 42,258 10,943 659 20%-29% 32,242 23,713 8,123 446 30% or More 45,672 36,333 15,280 1,147 U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 ACS Survey
What income group can afford a house priced at the lower quartile of $115,756 in the City? Winston Salem Homebuyer Affordability Lower Quartile House Value ($115,756) Affordability Indices >=100 Less than or Equal to 100 Affordability Indices <100 Greater than or Equal to 100 Annual Income Range Number Percent of Income Range Cumulative Number Percent of All Households Number Percent of Income Range Cumulative Number Percent of All Households <$10,000 93 4.5% 93 4.5% 1,971 95.5% 1,971 95.5% $10,000 to $14,999 453 20.9% 546 12.9% 1,713 79.1% 3,684 87.1% $15,000 to $19,999 1,779 64.0% 2,325 33.2% 1,000 36.0% 4,684 66.8% $20,000 to $24,999 1,795 71.7% 4,120 43.3% 710 28.3% 5,394 56.7% $25,000 to $34,999 5,899 95.3% 10,019 63.8% 292 4.7% 5,686 36.2% $35,000 to $49,999 8,804 97.3% 18,823 76.0% 246 2.7% 5,932 24.0% $50,000 to $74,999 12,499 99.3% 31,322 83.9% 88 0.7% 6,020 16.1% $75,000 to $99,999 8,175 100.0% 39,497 86.8% 0 0.0% 6,020 13.2% $100,000 to $149,999 8,353 100.0% 47,850 88.8% 0 0.0% 6,020 11.2% $150,000 or more 6,829 100.0% 54,679 90.1% 0 0.0% 6,020 9.9% Total 54,679 90.1% Affordable 6,020 9.9% Unaffordable U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 ACS Survey
What income group can afford a house priced at the median of $165,343 in the City? Exhibit 49. Winston Salem Homebuyer Affordability Median House Value ($165,343) Affordability Indices Less than or Equal to 100 >=100 Percent of Percent of Income Cumulative All Number Range Number Households Affordability Indices Greater than or Equal to 100 <100 Percent of Percent of Income Cumulative All Number Range Number Households Annual Income Range <$10,000 4 0.2% 4 0.2% 2,060 99.8% 2,060 99.8% $10,000 to $14,999 77 3.6% 81 1.9% 2,089 96.4% 4,149 98.1% $15,000 to $19,999 880 31.7% 961 13.7% 1,899 68.3% 6,048 86.3% $20,000 to $24,999 975 38.9% 1,936 20.3% 1,530 61.1% 7,578 79.7% $25,000 to $34,999 4,966 80.2% 6,902 43.9% 1,225 19.8% 8,803 56.1% $35,000 to $49,999 8,273 91.4% 15,175 61.3% 777 8.6% 9,580 38.7% $50,000 to $74,999 12,289 97.6% 27,464 73.5% 298 2.4% 9,878 26.5% $75,000 to $99,999 8,101 99.1% 35,565 78.1% 74 0.9% 9,952 21.9% $100,000 to $149,999 8,353 100.0% 43,918 81.5% 0 0.0% 9,952 18.5% $150,000 or more 6,829 100.0% 50,747 83.6% 0 0.0% 9,952 16.4% Total 50,747 83.6% Affordable 9,952 16.4% Unaffordable U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 ACS Survey
What income group can afford a house priced at the upper quartile of $224,675 in the City? Exhibit 50. Winston Salem Homebuyer Affordability Upper Quartile House Value ($224,675) Affordability Indices Less than or Equal to 100 >=100 Percent of Income Range Percent of All Households Affordability Indices Greater than or Equal to <100 Percent of Income Range Percent of All Households Cumulative Cumulative Annual Income Range Number Number Number Number <$10,000 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2,064 100.0% 2,064 100.0% $10,000 to $14,999 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2,166 100.0% 4,230 100.0% $15,000 to $19,999 387 13.9% 387 5.5% 2,392 86.1% 6,622 94.5% $20,000 to $24,999 454 18.1% 841 8.8% 2,051 81.9% 8,673 91.2% $25,000 to $34,999 3,044 49.2% 3,885 24.7% 3,147 50.8% 11,820 75.3% $35,000 to $49,999 7,385 81.6% 11,270 45.5% 1,665 18.4% 13,485 54.5% $50,000 to $74,999 11,141 88.5% 22,411 60.0% 1,446 11.5% 14,931 40.0% $75,000 to $99,999 7,868 96.2% 30,279 66.5% 307 3.8% 15,238 33.5% $100,000 to $149,999 7,927 94.9% 38,206 70.9% 426 5.1% 15,664 29.1% $150,000 or more 6,829 100.0% 45,035 74.2% 0 0.0% 15,664 25.8% Total 45,035 74.2% Affordable 15,664 25.8% Unaffordable U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 ACS Survey
Owner housing is relatively affordable for households at 80% AMI & Above, but unaffordable for households at 30 50% AMI. Exhibit 106. Winston Salem Homebuyer Affordability Index Indicator Median 30% of Median 50% of Median 80% of Median 120% of Median 150% of Median Household Income $46,212 $13,863 $23,106 $36,969 $55,454 $69,317 Lower Quartile House Price: $115,756 Qualifying Income $21,367 $21,367 $21,367 $21,367 $21,367 $21,367 Affordability Index 216.3 64.9 108.1 173.0 259.5 324.4 Median House Price: $165,343 Qualifying Income $30,521 $30,521 $30,521 $30,521 $30,521 $30,521 Affordability Index 151.4 45.4 75.7 121.1 181.7 227.1 Upper Quartile House Price: $224,675 Qualifying Income $41,473 $41,473 $41,473 $41,473 $41,473 $41,473 Affordability Index 111.4 33.4 55.7 89.1 133.7 167.1
Renter housing is unaffordable for households in the 30-50% AMI. Exhibit 117. Winston Salem Renter Affordability Index Indicator Median 30% of Median 50% of Median 80% of Median 120% of Median 150% of Median Household Income $46,212 $13,863 $23,106 $36,969 $55,454 $69,317 Lower Quartile Contract Rent: $461 Qualifying Income $18,428 $18,428 $18,428 $18,428 $18,428 $18,428 Affordability Index 250.8 75.2 125.4 200.6 300.9 376.1 Median Contract Rent: $593 Qualifying Income $23,734 $23,734 $23,734 $23,734 $23,734 $23,734 Affordability Index 194.7 58.4 97.4 155.8 233.7 292.1 Upper Quartile Contract Rent: $758 Qualifying Income $30,302 $30,302 $30,302 $30,302 $30,302 $30,302 Affordability Index 152.5 45.8 76.3 122.0 183.0 228.8
LAND USE & DEVELOPMENT COSTS
Winston-Salem Development Costs are Below Both National and Regional Trends
Regional Comparisons of Construction Costs Total Construction Costs for Average Construction, 1 3 Story, 22,500 Square Foot Multifamily Development
Current Development Patterns: Unbalanced levels of development and investment across its neighborhoods Zoning Permit, Dept of Inspections (Z) Site Plan Special Use Approval by Permit Approval, Planning Board Board of (P) Adjustment (A) Special Use Permit Approval; Elected Body (E) % of Zoning Classifications with least restrictive approval % of Zoning Classifications where type is eligible Use Rediential Building, Single Family 23 1 65.71% 68.57% Family Group Home A 20 57.14% 57.14% Planned Residential Development 2 17 5.71% 54.29% Nursing Care Institution 13 4 37.14% 48.57% Residential Building, Townhouse 4 12 11.43% 45.71% Residential Building, Multifamily (Hi) 4 12 11.43% 45.71% Residential Building, Duplex 11 2 31.43% 37.14% Residential Building, Twin Home 11 2 31.43% 37.14% Manufactured Home, Class A 2 10 5.71% 34.29% Combined Use 11 31.43% 31.43% Family Group Home B 3 8 8.57% 31.43% Life Care Community 3 7 8.57% 28.57% Family Group Home C 2 6 1 5.71% 25.71% Boarding or Rooming House 8 22.86% 22.86% Group Care Facility (A) 4 3 0.00% 20.00% Manufactured Home, Class B (F) 1 5 2.86% 17.14% Manufactured Home, Class C 1 4 2.86% 14.29% Shelter for Homeless 4 0.00% 11.43% Manufactured Housing Development 1 1 2.86% 5.71% Manufactured Home Class B (W) 1 2.86% 2.86% Group Care Facility (B) 1 0.00% 2.86% Manufactured Home, Class D 0.00% 0.00% Source: City of Winston-Salem, Unified Development Ordinance: Permitted Uses
HOUSING & TRANSIT How do Housing and Transportation Costs in Winston-Salem Compare to Other Peer Cities?
How do housing and transportation costs compare to other cities? Compared to other cities with populations between 200k -300k, Winston-Salem s combined housing and transportations costs are below average. It has the 38 th highest cost out of 48 cities. Combined housing and transportation costs for the typical Winston-Salem household are $24,120 on average.
How do housing and transportation costs compare to other cities (with income)? But because Winston-Salem incomes are relatively low, the combined housing + transportation is above average relative to local incomes. It has the 19 th highest housing and transportation costs out of 48 comparison cities controlling for income. Combined housing + transportation costs represent 53 percent of the typical household s annual income.
Absolute transportation costs are average, but high relative to income The typical household spends $11,988 per year on transportationrelated costs (the 24 th highest of 48 cities) The typical household spends 25% of its income on transportation-related costs (the 14 th highest of 48 cities)
People Driving More is Driven by Land Use Patterns - Low Density and Limited Employment Access Winston-Salem has the 8 th lowest household density of the 48 cities, at 1.06 household per acre It also has the 7 th lowest employment access among the 48 cities (as measured by the Center for Neighborhood Technology). 63 percent of the housing stock is singlefamily detached housing, which is slightly above average.
Forsyth County Housing and Transportation Cost Landscape
Where are high and low cost areas located? The center and eastern parts of the city are lower cost, the western city and surrounding county are higher cost
Where are high and low cost areas located? Transportation costs increase with distance to the city center
Where does bus service exist? Bus service coincides with lower transportation cost areas.
Additional Information to Consider Alongside H+T Costs
Public Housing Locations Percent of Income Spent on H+T Costs for a Low Income Household (2016) with Public Housing Developments Most of the city s public housing is concentrated in the downtown and east of US 52.
Subsidized Housing Locations Percent of Income Spent on H+T Costs for a Low Income Household (2016) with Subsidized Housing Developments The same goes for the broader portfolio of subsidized housing, though to a lesser extent than public housing alone.
Evidence the Downtown and East / Northeast Winston are Changing
Changes in Educational Attainment The number of people with a college education is increasing in the areas downtown and east of US 52.
Changes in Household Income Incomes are increasing in the areas downtown and east of US 52. This does not necessarily mean households are earning more.
Changes in Home Values Home values in many of the neighborhoods downtown and east of US 52 have been increasing in recent years.
Changes in Rents Similarly, rents in many of the neighborhoods downtown and east of US 52 have been increasing in recent years.
Changes in Race Many, but not all neighborhoods downtown and east of US 52 have seen increases in the population that is white.
Changes in Race Many, but not all neighborhoods downtown and east of US 52 have seen decreases in the population of people of color.