Village of Kenilworth Green Bay Road Land Use Study September 16, 2015
Discussion Outline Summary of Findings Neighborhood/Aesthetic Considerations Traffic Studies Design Options Scenario Analysis
Summary of Findings Scale of development is determined by lot size Building size and height is limited by parking Parking is limited by lot size and cost Development is constrained by Skokie Ditch Financial feasibility based on development type and market conditions
Green Bay Land Use: View from Wayland Ave to Green Bay Road
Green Bay Land Use: Neighborhood view of existing Pavlik Building
Green Bay Land Use: Neighborhood view of existing condo building
Green Bay Land Use: Neighborhood view of existing Sherwin Williams building
Green Bay Land Use: Neighborhood view of existing bank building
Traffic Studies
Traffic Studies: Option 1
Traffic Studies: Option 2
SITE ELEMENTS: -ALLOWS CIRCULATION NORTH TO GREEN BAY -PROVIDES FOR SAFE GREEN BAY ROAD INTERSECTION -SHALLOW LOT DEVELOPMENT -PIPED SKOKIE DITCH -MAINTAINS ALLEY Traffic Studies: Option 3
SITE ELEMENTS: -PROHIBITS CIRCULATION NORTH TO GREEN BAY -PROVIDES FOR SAFE GREEN BAY ROAD INTERSECTION -DEEPER LOT DEVELOPMENT -CUL-DE-SAC TAKES AWAY LAND FROM DEVELOPMENT PARCEL -PIPED SKOKIE DITCH -MAINTAINS ALLEY SITE INFORMATION: -TOTAL SITE AREA: 30,300 SF -UNDEVELOPABLE AREA: 9,600 SF -TOTAL DEVELOPABLE AREA: 20,700 SF Site Diagram: Option 1
SITE ELEMENTS: -ALLOWS CIRCULATION NORTH TO GREEN BAY -PROVIDES FOR SAFE GREEN BAY ROAD INTERSECTION -DEEPER LOT DEVELOPMENT -OPPORTUNITIES FOR COMMUNITY GATEWAY AT STERLING -PIPED SKOKIE DITCH -MAINTAINS ALLEY SITE INFORMATION: -TOTAL SITE AREA: 30,300 SF -UNDEVELOPABLE AREA: 5,300 SF -TOTAL DEVELOPABLE AREA: 25,000 SF Site Diagram: Option 2
SITE ELEMENTS: -ALLOWS CIRCULATION NORTH TO GREEN BAY -PROVIDES FOR SAFE GREEN BAY ROAD INTERSECTION -SHALLOW LOT DEVELOPMENT -PIPED SKOKIE DITCH -MAINTAINS ALLEY SITE INFORMATION: -TOTAL SITE AREA: 30,300 SF -UNDEVELOPABLE AREA: 4,300 SF -TOTAL DEVELOPABLE AREA: 26,000 SF Site Diagram: Option 3
Methodology Make assumptions Costs Revenue (capitalized annual rent or sales price) Market rate returns that use revenue to create estimated value Calculate the funds available to pay for ready to develop land Revenue based valuation Is it different using replacement cost or comparable sales? Estimate costs to create ready to develop land Property value will be determined later Today we are talking about the value of estimated income stream Could be replacement cost Demolition Test sensitivity to market changes
Assumptions Building Costs per SF or Space Office $179.98 Retail $137.98 Restaurant $335.92 Apartment SF $173.38 Condo N/A Surface Parking $6,000 Covered Parking $15,000 Underground Parking $30,000 Annual Revenue per SF or Price Office $40.00 Retail $30.00 Restaurant $30.00 Apartment SF $30.00 $2.50 Condo $750,000 Investment Return Inputs Apartment Cap Rate 7% Retail/ Restaurant Cap Rate 9% NOI % of Rent 75% Land % of Condo Price 17% Property Tax % of Value 2% Sales per square foot $375 Sensitivity Micro-market rents are high Costs are based on sub-region average that could be too low Uncertain economy/financing could change cap rates
Parking and the Market Why residential parking works at 1.3 per unit Transitioning spouses only have one car Single people only have one car Snowbirds typically have one car Why office needs 5 spaces per thousand Typical space per worker in new shared environment is 150 SF Convenience for visitors Why coffee shops want drive thru Increases business by 30% Alternate may be convenient quick spots
Green Bay Land Use: Option 3
Green Bay Land Use: Option 3
Version 3 Analysis: Basic Concept 3A: Office & Condos Concept 3B: Office & Bistro Concept 3C: 40 Apartments Concept 3D: Condos Office SF 12,972 38,100 Restaurant SF 3,500 Apartment SF 40,300 Condo Units 20 24 Surface Parking Spaces 20 Covered Parking Spaces 20 50 Underground Parking Spaces 24 29 Revenue Based Value $19,324,000 $13,575,000 $11,010,536 $18,000,000 Contribution to Land and Prep Costs $4,539,299 $4,702,042 $3,273,322 $3,060,000* Annual Sales Tax $13,125 Annual Property Tax $386,480 $271,500 $220,211 $360,000 Notes: Concepts 3A & B are short parking *If Concept 3D sells condos for $1,000,000, the contribution is $4 Million. Necessary project contribution would be reduced by the cost paid by Village for road relocation
Sensitivity Analysis: Lower Revenue Concept 3A: Office & Condo Concept 3B: Office & Bistro Concept 3C: 40 Apartments Concept 3D: 24 Condos Revenue Based Value $13,243,000 $10,108,333 $8,808,429 $12,000,000 Contribution to Land and Prep Costs $2,608,299 $1,235,375 $1,071,215 $2,040,000 Annual Sales Tax $13,125 Annual Property Tax $264,860 $202,167 $176,169 $240,000 Annual Revenue per SF or Price Office $30.00 Retail $20.00 Restaurant $20.00 Apartment SF $24.00 $2.00 Condo $500,000
Sensitivity Analysis: Higher Cost Concept 3A: Office & Condo Concept 3B: Office & Bistro Concept 3C: 40 Apartments Concept 3D: 24 Condos Revenue Based Value $19,324,000 $13,575,000 $11,010,536 $18,000,000 Contribution to Land and Prep Costs $4,072,359 $2,927,450 $1,725,879 $3,060,000 Annual Sales Tax $13,125 Annual Property Tax $386,480 $271,500 $220,211 $360,000 Building Costs per SF or Space Office $215.98 Retail $165.58 Restaurant $403.10 Apartment SF $208.06 Condo N/A Surface Parking $7,200 Covered Parking $18,000 Underground Parking $36,000
Comments Visitors using street parking is critical A premium priced micro-market is key to project viability Land value would be influence by how owners participate Can current tenants occupy new space? (only 3A and 3B create enough office) What is the basis for property appraisal? What would the Village pay for the road land? Is it a trade? This is not a project that would attract regional or national developer You can sell a little bit of anything
Green Bay Land Use: Option 1
Green Bay Land Use: Option 1
Version 1 Analysis: Basic
Green Bay Land Use: Option 2
Green Bay Land Use: Option 2
Version 2 Analysis: Basic Option 2A: Restaurant Option 2B: Condos & Coffee Shop Option 2C: Apartments & Coffee Shop Option 2D: Office Office SF 38,600 Restaurant SF 5,000 2,100 Retail (no kitchen) 2,300 Apartment SF 22,000 Condo Units 12 Surface Parking Spaces 42 8 9 20 Covered Parking Spaces 13 16 Underground Parking Spaces 18 19 Revenue Based Value $1,250,000 $9,575,000 $8,539,286 $14,582,222 Contribution to Land and Prep Costs -$681,600 $2,105,000 $4,186,168 $6,704,994 Annual Sales Tax $18,750 $8,625 $7,875 Annual Property Tax $25,000 $181,035 $170,786 $291,644 Notes: *If Concept 2B sells condos for $1,000,000, the contribution is $2.6 Million. Option 2B assumes $50/sf cost to reuse current buildings for coffee shop Option 2D is short parking Necessary project contribution would be reduced by the cost paid by Village for road relocation
Green Bay Land Use: Option 4
Green Bay Land Use: Option 4
Version 4 Analysis: Basic Option 4A: Restaurant Option 4B: Condos/Office Option 4C: Apartments & Coffee Shop Option 4D: Office & Coffee Shop Office SF 5,600 30,800 Retail (no kitchen) 2,300 3,200 Restaurant SF 4,200 Apartment SF 19,200 Condo Units 8 Surface Parking Spaces 25 23 Covered Parking Spaces 10 10 Underground Parking Spaces 18 18 Revenue Based Value $1,050,000 $7,866,667 $7,760,952 $12,702,222 Contribution to Land and Prep Costs -$510,864 $1,338,779 $3,976,702 $6,567,302 Annual Sales Tax $15,750 $8,625 $12,000 Annual Property Tax $21,000 $157,333 $155,219 $254,044 Notes: *If Concept 4B sells condos for $1,000,000, the contribution is $1.7 Million. Option 4D is short parking Necessary project contribution would be reduced by the cost paid by Village for road relocation
Village of Kenilworth Green Bay Road Land Use Study September 16, 2015