NOVEMBER 2018 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

NOVEMBER 218 Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through October 31, 218 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group Custom-Built Highland Park Home with Full Finished Basement........................ 435BrownRoanLane.com

[1] MARKET SUMMARY HOME SALES REPORT October 218 # Home Sales 215 216 217 218 % Change ('17 '18) October 15 97 98 12 22.45% Year To Date (Jan Oct) 963 1,15 1,59 1,117 5.48% Last 12 Months (Nov Oct) 1,127 1,268 1,267 1,32 4.18% Median Sales Price 215 216 217 218 % Change ('17 '18) October $182, $188,5 $27,5 $225,5 8.67% Year To Date (Jan Oct) $186, $192, $196,5 $214, 9.16% Last 12 Months (Nov Oct) $185, $19, $196,2 $212,6 8.36% Median Days on Market 215 216 217 218 % Change ('17 '18) October 65 58 36 31 13.89% Year To Date (Jan Oct) 57 52 33 22 33.33% Last 12 Months (Nov Oct) 59 51 35 25 28.57% Home sales heated up in October 218 -- showing a significant (22%) increase over home sales last October. In fact, this has been the busiest month of October in several years. This strong month of October home sales has lead to an overall 5.48% year-over-year increase in home sales thus far in 218. The median sales price of homes sold in 218 has also increased over the past year to $214, - though part of this 9.16% year-over-year increase is a result of more single family homes (as opposed to duplexes, townhomes and condos) selling this year compared to how many were selling last year.

[1] MARKET SUMMARY HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County # Home Sales 217 218 % Change 217 218 % Change October 3 4 33.33% 68 8 17.65% Last 12 Months (Nov Oct) 422 455 7.82% 845 865 2.37% City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County Median Sales Price 217 218 % Change 217 218 % Change October $189,95 $185, 2.61% $216,95 $239,95 1.6% Last 12 Months (Nov Oct) $172, $192, 11.63% $21, $223,317 6.34% City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County Median Days on Market 217 218 % Change 217 218 % Change October 24 31 29.17% 39 31 2.51% Last 12 Months (Nov Oct) 25 13 48.% 44 34 22.73% Each year, roughly twice as many homes sell in the County as compared to the City, and looking at the past 12 months (and comparing it to the previous 12 months) we see that pattern yet again with 455 City home sales compared to 865 County home sales. Over the past year, the pace of sales has increased 7.82% in the City, while only increasing 2.37% in the County -- and the median sales price has increased in both areas. The median sales prices has increased a good bit more in the City (+12%) than in the County (+6%) but the City median sales price ($192,) remains quite a bit lower than in the County ($223,317).

[2] RECENT TRENDS Month By Month Home Sales History 175 215 174 15 216 217 149 152 158 October 218 12 Home Sales Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales 125 1 75 5 218 81 69 69 67 68 63 68 49 15 1 11 94 1 93 85 72 133 13 11 138 134 131 126 117 119 115 115 18 129 15 98 97 12 113 15 98 1 97 79 13 95 84 25 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC This has been somewhat of a roller coast of a year for home sales when viewing the sales on a month by month basis. Five of the first nine months of the year (Feb, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul) showed record breaking numbers of home sales -- stronger than any of the past three years. Then, home sales sunk down low in August and September, throwing into question where home sales would finish out the year strong, or whether rising mortgage interest rates may have slowed sales for good. But then, October. There were 12 home sales in October, a sharp rise as compared to most expectations, setting us on a course to have a strong finish to the year.

[2] RECENT TRENDS Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1,313 1,261 1,218 1,158 1,125 1,15 1,117 1,67 1,85 1,41 1,58 974 988 1,8 997 962 96 9 91 92 899 839 857 817 879 855 88 743 784 734 76 721 736 664 697 618 634 592 66 619 653 591 497 5 526 466 454 481 479 4 4 392 355 321 332 349 38 296 282 228 248 192 154 167 189 22 232 244 87 121 19 117 135 138 144 41 49 56 49 67 69 63 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As shown above, our local housing market experienced small incremental growth between 213 and 215 before seeing a sharp uptick in home sales in 216, and then a modest decline between 216 and 217. Prior to October, it was unclear whether we d have quite as strong of a year as seen in 216 -- but we re now out ahead again -- on pace to possibly have as many as 1,3 home sales again in 218.

[2] RECENT TRENDS 2, 1,8 1,6 $185, $185, $185, $185, $186, $186,5 $186, $185, Time Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period $185, $185,75 $186,25 $189, $19, $19, $192,5 $192, $192, $192, $19, $192,7 $193, $194,5 $196,5 $195, $196,125 $198,25 $198,5 $199,882 $199,9 $2, $23, $26, $21, $21,! $21, $212, $212,6 $22, $21, $2, $19, $18, 1,4 1,2 1,127 1,138 1,125 1,143 1,143 1,156 1,164 1,187 1,25 1,212 1,244 1,276 1,268 1,32 1,313 1,315 1,316 1,325 1,324 1,34 1,326 1,328 1,289 1,265 1,266 1,253 1,261 1,255 1,267 1,273 1,278 1,259 1,295 1,39 1,35 1,298 1,32? $17, $16, $15, 1, $14, $13, 8 $12, Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18 This graph shows a rolling 12 month trend line of the number of homes sold in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. The pace of home sales rose between 215 and mid-217 before slowing for about a year -- but now seems to be on the rise again in 218. The median sales price, however, has been on a relatively steady rise for over two years now -- increasing above $2, for most of 218.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes 1,8 $25, 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 1,324 $127,7 +14% +17% 1,57 $149, +11% +14% 1,669 $169,9 14% +14% 1,438 +1% n/a $192,983 $195,1 13% 1,248 23% $195, 5% $185, 967 1% 87 3% $179,9 8% 799 6% $169,9 +1% $172,375 9 +8% +4% 832 +2% $175, +2% $178, +4% $185, 1,122 1,67 1,85 +2% +3% +19% +4% $192,5 +3% $198,25 1,39 4% 1,26 +17% $214, 1,117 $2, $15, $1, 6 4 $5, 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $ This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 22 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After six years in a row (211-216) of an increasing pace of home sales, we then saw a 4% decline in the pace of home sales in 217. This was accompanied, however, by a 3% increase in the median sales prices, which continues the now six year (212-217) trend of increasing median sales prices, and we have now reached the highest annual median sales price ever seen in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes 1,4 $275, 1,2 1, 8 6 1,24 n/a1,25 +16% 11% +24% 99 88 $147, +16% $17, $21, +8% $226,8 1% 12% $223,575 798 4% 15% $215, 6% $23, 4% $195, 6% $184, +6% $195, 678 672 11% 653 +1% +3% 62 1% 595 2% +21% $192, 1% $19, +5% $2, 813 +1% 819 n/c 818 +7% $214, +5% $224,6 978 9% +2% 89 $23, 86 $225, $175, $125, $75, 4 2 $25, 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $25, The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County improved significantly between 215 and 216 with a 2% increase in the number of homes sold and an accompanying 7% increase in the median price of those homes. Last year proved to be a bit of a different year -- with a 9% decline to only 89 homes selling in the year -- though the median sales price continued to rise, from $214, up 5% to $224,6. Now, in 218, we are seeing further increases in that median sales price and we have surpassed the past peak of $226,8 seen in 26.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS 7 Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos 6 5 4 3 2 +33% 483 +9% +14% 444 +1% $18,2 $118,5 644 $134,95 $16,85 18% +19% 529 +2% $163,8 +2% $166,635 15% 45 36% 289 4% $159,545 3% 7% 268 24% $154,25 9% $14,5 6% $132,75 228 24 +27% 12% 179 +3% $137,25 +11% $151,75 n/c $151,75 1% $149,5 331 +9% 34 +14% 266 254 +5% +11% +7% $159,8 37 +12% $167,5 311 $18, $16, $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, 1 $2, 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $ Townhouse (and duplexes and condo) sales are on a roll! Last year marked the sixth year in a row that we saw an increase in the number of these sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, with 37 sales -- up 12% from the prior year. In even better news, the median sales price of these townhouses, duplexes and condominiums rose 7% between 216 and 217 from $149,5 up to $159,8. We still have not returned to the peak median sales price seen in this property category between 26 and 28, and we are likely never (or not for a long while) to see a return to over 6 of these sales per year, as was seen in 25.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Market Balance between Buyers and Sellers Assuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 SELLERS 75 694 686 679 674 664 656 646 641 637 635 632 631 628 624 622 617 618 622 625 628 63 631 633 633 635 635 634 633 631 627 625 622 616 612 67 68 69 611 61 61 69 66 599 592 Over Supply = Buyer's Market 425 444 432 436 447 447 462 472 477 486 496 53 59 492 57 51 52 496 482 484 491 495 491 54 515 518 521 518 527 535 543 547 56 554 565 56 559 565 56 57 57 577 581 593 6 BUYERS Balanced Market BUYERS 648 655 656 656 661 66 668 663 664 645 633 633 627 631 628 634 637 639 63 648 655 653 649 66 542 53 516 55 491 476 461 446 435 423 411 41 39 379 372 363 356 349 345 341 SELLERS Strong Seller's Market 335 33 324 32 2 1 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 Feb 14 Apr 14 Jun 14 Aug 14 Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Apr 16 Jun 16 Aug 16 Oct 16 Dec 16 Feb 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 18 Apr 18 Jun 18 Aug 18 Oct 18 Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The BUYERS trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The SELLERS trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. In June 216, these two trajectories crossed, and there are now many more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale -- though the buying pace has leveled off.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Median Price vs. Price Per SF (Single Family Homes) Median Price Price/SF $35, $14 $12 $1 $97 $116 $129 $127 $127 $117 $113 $11 $13 Median Price Per SF $113 $15 $16 $18 $118 $124 $3, $25, $8 $6 $87 $147K $17K $21K $227K $224K $215K $23K $195K $184K $214K $2K $195K $192K $19K Median Sales Price $225K $23K $2, $15, $4 $1, $2 $5, $ 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $ In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 1+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past several years (215 to 216 to 217) we have seen increases in the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes 1,499 SF 1,5 2,5 SF 2,5+ SF 15 $145 14 $132 13 12 11 1 $127 $117 $15 $121 $111 $18 $16 $11 $111 $14 $115 $15 $114 $14 $13 $121 $16 $11 $126 $115 $15 $119 $17 $124 $19 $96 $97 $98 9 8 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of similar sizes. Looking at 218 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (25+ SF) is a good bit lower ($19/SF) than that of homes with less than 15 SF ($145/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS 2, Median List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace 1,75 98.1% 99.1% 99.1% 98.9% 1,669 98.% 98.% 97.% 96.% 96.% 96.% 97.% 97.% 97.% 98.% 98.% 99.% 1.% 1,5 1,57 1,438 95.% 1,25 1,324 1,248 1,67 1,85 1,122 1,39 1,26 1,117 9.% 1, 967 87 799 832 9 85.% 75 8.% 5 25 75.% 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 7.% This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (24-26) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 97.7% in 21 before the pace of home sales started escalating. Then, when the pace of home sales slowed (through 21) this metric dropped to 96%, where it stayed for three years. Sellers started selling for slightly more in 213-215 when they could obtain 97% of their list price. This increased to 98% in 216, held steady in 217, and has returned to 99% in 218.

[3] LONG TERM TRENDS 2 18 New Construction Single Family Detached Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot 186 2 16 158 14 12 121 14 $133 $15 139 $146 $144 19 $137 $13 $129 $128 $129 $136 $14 $141 $149 $151 15 1 8 $15 $114 84 82 77 73 1 6 4 41 45 51 47 38 54 5 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 25 and 21 -- dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 21 (not shown above; before the housing boom) we still find a 7% drop between 21 and 21. The number of new home sales per year has not crept up much since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. The past two years, however, were QUITE different. There were a total of 82 new home sales in 216 and 77 more in 217 -- a welcome sign for new home builders -- and it seems 218 may result in even more new home sales.

[4] BUYER ACTIVITY 18 Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 171 16 158 14 12 133 141 128 13 119 19 14 137 133 132 111 112 128 128 124 119 19 111 1 8 82 7 67 74 84 99 93 63 67 87 97 87 79 69 85 9 12 6 4 2 Annual Pace: 1,312 contracts Annual Pace: 1,259 contracts Annual Pace: 1,315 contracts Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Strong contract activity is typically an indicator of strong months of sales to come. Of interest, earlier in this report I commented on the fact that 218 home sales are likely to eclipse 217 levels, but not necessarily match the home sales activity seen in 216. One bit of data that runs counter to that prediction is the pace of contract activity seen in a 12 month period. There have been 1,315 contracts signed in the past 12 months, which is a good bit higher than two years ago - the timeframe that would have affected 216 sales trends. This past month (October 218) showed contract activity on pace with last October!

[5] INVENTORY LEVELS 6 Inventory Levels (end of month) 5 48 451 4 3 413 368 42 4 411 394 393 418 49 396 356 322 28 279 295 32 325 346 347 345 343 324 317 2 1 Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which may be a significant decision, but it is not always so. Some homes on the market could be sellers who are just testing the market and thus, inventory levels can vary than home sales. Inventory levels have been declining significantly over the past year -- and are now 11% lower than they were one year ago and 34% lower than they were two years ago.

[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos 5 45 4 372 35 3 343 318 282 311 312 327 327 325 32 341 329 29 266 21% YOY Decline in Inventory 266 257 257 257 241 25 234 23 239 244 238 23 2 15 32% YOY Increase in Inventory 1 18 18 95 86 94 88 84 74 68 98 69 72 66 56 46 49 56 76 87 8 9 88 86 83 87 5 This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of single family homes for sale has decreased by 21% over the past year, while the number of townhouses, duplexes and condos for sale has actually increased by 32% over the past year. We saw inventory levels increase a bit through the Spring and Summer, which did provide buyers with more options -- but we are likely to see these inventory levels decline further as we continue through the Fall and Winter.

[5] INVENTORY LEVELS Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg Rockingham County 4 368 35 345 321 313 314 322 312 313 314 322 316 3 281 277 15% YOY Decline in Inventory 25 246 216 221 225 236 243 257 251 245 246 23 235 2 15 4% YOY Increase in Inventory 1 112 16 92 87 92 86 89 89 8 14 88 85 79 76 64 58 7 84 82 89 96 1 97 94 82 5 Inventory levels have fallen 15% in Rockingham County over the past year but have actually increased slightly (4%) in the City of Harrisonburg during the same timeframe. Of note -- while there are approximately twice as many home sales in the County than in the City -- there are more than twice as many homes for sale in the County than in the City. As such, the low inventory is much more of an issue in the City right now if we look at both sellers (supply) and buyers (demand). This is likely leading to the faster increases in median sales price in the City, and the lower median days on market in the City.

[6] DAYS ON MARKET Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings 3 6 months 18 13% > 1 year 36 6 12 months 3% 115 9% 6 12 months 52 16% > 1 year, 19, 6% < 3 days 78 25% 6 89 days 111 8% < 3 days 697 53% 3 6 months 81 25% 3 59 days 52 16% 3 59 days 181 14% 6 89 days 37 12% Median Days On Market: 25 Median Days On Market: 85 Declining inventory levels are contributing to an overall decline in the time it takes to sell a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The current median Days on Market is 25 days for homes that have sold in the past year. Remarkably, 53% of homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 3 days of having hit the market. Combine that with those that went under contract during the second month on the market, and you ll find that 67% of homes that sell go under contract within 6 days. The graph to the right, above, shows the length of time that each active listing has been on the market for sale.

[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months) $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k + 7 6 5 58 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 59 59 56 55 55 54 54 53 53 53 52 5 49 49 49 48 48 12% 4 3 29 3 31 31 31 32 31 33 32 33 33 32 33 33 33 32 32 33 34 34 37 37 38 38 39 +18% 2 1 11.5 12.3 12.8 12.4 12.3 12. 12.3 12.5 12. 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.8 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.2 13.3 13. 13.7 14. 13.9 14.1 14.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6. 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5 8. 8.4 9. 8.6 8.8 9.3 +21% +42% The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have been declining over the past year in the under $2K category -- though likely because of limited inventory, and fewer properties existing in this range based on increasing home values. We have seen year-over-year increases in all other price ranges -- with the most significant comparative increase in the pace of home sales being in those properties over $4K in value.

[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Inventory Levels by Price Range $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k + 25 2 15 116 1 18 79 12 12 12% 6% 63 2% 5 53 5 6% Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. There have been declines in the inventory levels of all price ranges shown above -- though the largest declines in inventory over the past year have been in the $4K+ range where inventory levels have declined 2%. The relatively small (12%) decline in inventory levels in the under $2K price range is likely because we are bottoming out as to how low those inventory levels can possibly go.

[7] MARKET SEGMENTS Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $ $2k $2k $3k $3k $4k $4k + 16 14 Entire Market: 3 Months of Housing Supply 12 Month Average of 32 Active Listings 12 Month Average of 11 Sales/Month 12 12 1 8 6 7 44% 4 2 5 3 4 3 2 2 22% 2% With so many home sales (lots of buyers) and so few homes on the market (not so many sellers), there are low levels of supply in some price ranges in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that while it would take 7 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $4K if the same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months and if no new listings came on the market -- but it would only take two months (!!) to burn through the under $2K inventory and $2K-$3K inventory. Many consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers.

[8] LOTS AND LAND 45 Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre $12, 4 48 $99,9 $1, 35 3 34 $76,5 $8, 25 2 15 247 $36,9 $42, $54,5 $56,6 $59,9 $55, $54,5 $56,5 $54,9 Stability $53,95 $59,65 $54,5 $58, $52,5 $6, $4, 1 111 85 75 58 64 62 63 83 84 Stable-ish 78 64 83 68 $2, 5 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $ With the exception of 216, we have seen between 78 and 84 lot sales of less than an acre for each of the past five years. This is a sharp decline from the 26-4 lot sales seen in 22-25, but it is an improvement over where things were (58-63 sales) between 29 and 212. From a value perspective, the sales prices of these less than an acre lots have also been rather stable -- fluctuating no further than between $54K and $6K over the past ten years. That is, of course, after a meteoric rise and then fall to/from $1K. Given the trajectory of lot sales over the last few years, I expect we ll see something similar in 218.

[8] LOTS AND LAND Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more 2 $3, 18 16 14 12 $9,535 $12,3 17 168 $17,713 $15, $24,184 $2,833 $15,964 $13,957 $15, $14,981 $13,24 $9,932 $15,171 $1, $15,827 $13,82 $25, $2, $15, $1, 1 8 6 4 76 77 83 57 44 28 51 49 7 58 66 73 88 59 $5, $ $5, 2 $1, 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $15, Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County increased in pace during 217 to 88 land sales -- marking the highest year of sales since 25. The median price per acre has also risen over the past year, from $1, to $15,827. That said, it was $15,171 two years ago -- so this is effectively not a net increase in price per acre over the past two years. Of note -- some aspects of this median price per acre calculation are affected by which parcels actually sell in a given year. We saw an increase in buyer demand in 217, which seems to have lead to a further increase in the median price per acre.

[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS Recorded Trustee Deeds 1,8 1,669 1,6 1,57 1,438 1,4 1,324 1,248 1,39 1,26 1,2 1, 8 936 816 758 794 864 1,13 1,85 1,122 1,117 6 4 2 75 7 86 93 97 118 177 27 223 252 222 163 139 136 134 71 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales that did not involve a Realtor, nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is trending downward -- sharply in 218 -- and the pace of home sales is increasing much more quickly, despite having slowed slightly in 217.

[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS 6.% Average 3 Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.76% 3.95% 4.1% 3.79% 3.62% 3.71% 3.66% 3.64% 3.48% 3.48% 3.43% 3.42% 3.47% 4.3% 4.32% 4.19% 4.16% 4.14% 4.3% 3.95% 3.88% 3.92% 3.82% 3.83% 3.94% 3.9% 3.99% 4.15% 4.4% 4.44% 4.61% 4.56% 4.55% 4.54% 4.52% 4.72% 4.86% 3.% Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 4.% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.3% 4.% 4.1% 3.2% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.% 4.2% Harrisonburg Rockingham MSA Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.% 3.9% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 3.% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 As shown in the top graph above, for most of the past three years, home buyers have seen tremendously low interest rates -- almost always under 4% except in late 216 and during the past eight months. Thus far, these rising interest rates have not seemed to have made a large impact on the number of buyers buying homes. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years to a current level of 2.7%. A low local unemployment rate and relatively low mortgage interest rates help our local housing market remain stable.

[1] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker Scott P. Rogers, a professional, responsive, knowledgeable, friendly Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 23 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Since 21, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors. A native of Montgomery County, Maryland, Scott earned a B.A. (2) and M.Ed. (22) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, a quadcopter (drone), property websites for each of his listings, 3D Walk Through technology and Virtual Reality. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for the latest, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 27, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as: HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com, SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com and HarrisonburgRealEstateResources.com. Scott is a member of the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, serves as a Trustee for Asbury United Methodist Church, is the co-founder of TakeThemAMeal.com and PerfectPotluck.com and coaches middle school volleyball. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, playing volleyball and attending JMU sporting events. Questions? Contact Scott anytime... SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 54-578-12 (mobile) scott@harrisonburghousingtoday.com Local Online Real Estate Resources How To Navigate The Home Purchasing Process BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com The Best Marketing Strategies For Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Property Search ScottPRogers.com Analysis and Commentary on our Local Real Estate Market HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Daily Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Fast Access to All New Listings of Homes For Sale NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Historical Record of Area Home Sales JustSoldInHarrisonburg.com Property Transfers in HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com Comprehensive Data on Single Family Home Neighborhoods HarrisonburgNeighborhoods.com Comprehensive Data on Area Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in Harrisonburg HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed Values BestDealsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in HarrisonburgForeclosures.com