Housing Market Trends in the Washington Area Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University March 3, 17
1. 1. 1. 8.... - (.) (.) (.) Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 1, MSA Feb -9.%. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
Thousands 3 1-1 - -3 - Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 17, MSA % Chg Inv Inventory 3 3 1 1 FEB -9.%. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
Total Active Listings Per Sale February Each Year Metro Area 1 1 1 8
Total Listings Per Sale Sep Each Year 1 PG 1 - MONT ARL PW FFX LDN DC
1, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Feb 17 1, 1, 1, 1-Month Moving Average 8,,,,8 Feb 17, 17 1 1 1 13 1 11 1 9 8 7 3 1 1999
, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Month-Over-Year Change 1, 1, + 8 Feb 17 - -1, -1, -, 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17
(%) Existing Home Sales - MSA (Percent Month-Over-Year Change) 1 month Average 3 1 SMD MSA DC NVA -1 - -3 11 1 13 1 1 1 17
3 1 1 - -1-1 - Existing Home Sales District of Columbia MOTY Change 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Sales) 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Feb 17 =1, + 73 1, 9 8 7 3 1 -
8 - - - -8-1, -1, Existing Home Sales Northern Virginia MOTY Change 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Sales) Feb 17 =,1, + 11,,, 3,, 1, -
1, 8 - - - -8 Existing Home Sales Suburban Maryland MOTY Change 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Sales) 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Feb 17 =1,87, + 98, 3, 3,,, 1, 1, -
(s) 3 3 1 1 (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $379.K Feb 17
Median House Sales Price (s) 7 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) 3 1
1 1 1 8 - Median Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA - 1 13 1 1 1 17
Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA % 1 1 1 1 8 - - 3 9 3 7 8 1 1 11 9 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 8 9 3 1-1 13 1 1 1 17-1 1 1-1 1 3 - -3 1-1 1-1 3 7
% 1 1-1 8 8 1-3 - Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) District of Columbia 13 7 1 13 1 8 1 11 17-1 11-1 1 11-1 1 13 1 1 1 17-1 - 1 1 7 1 1-3 8 9 1-1 -3-1 1-11 -1-3 11 1 Feb = $78K
Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Suburban Maryland 1 1 % - - - -1 11 1 11 9 1 1111 8 11 1 1 1 13 1 9 1 1-3 3 1 1 1-1 -1-1 -1-3 -3 - - - 7 1 3 8-1 1 13 1 1 1 17 Feb = $38K
Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia % 1 1 1 1 8 - - 9 7 3 3 1 13 9 1 9 9 8 7 8 1 1 3 1-1 8-1 3 - - -1 1 1-1 13 1 1 1 17-1 3 Feb = $K
(%) 1 Average Home Sales Price MSA- by Housing Type (Percent Month-Over-Year Change, 1 Month Average) All Housing Types Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Condos 1-1 13 1 1 1 17
(%) MOTY Change 1 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $ Average Home Sales Price MSA - Single Family Detached 1 1 - -1 $ $ $3 $ $1-1 $ 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Feb 17 = $1,, + 1%
(%) MOTY Change 1 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $ 1 1 - Average Home Sales Price MSA - Single Family Attached $ $ $3 $3 $ $ $1 $1 $ $ 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Feb 17 = $19,3, +.%
(%) MOTY Change 1 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $ Average Home Sales Price MSA - Condos 1 1 - -1 $3 $3 $ $ $1 $1 $ -1 $ 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 Feb 17 = $38,9, +.%
,, 1, 1, - -1, -1, -, -, Building Permit Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA Jan -3% Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3, Washington MSA Building Permits 1 17, 3-Month Moving Avg,, 1, Jan 1,8 1, Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
, 3, (s) Inventory and Permits Washington MSA Inventory Permits, 3, 3, 3,,,,, 1, 1, 1, 1,,
Outlook Building costs remain elevated Inventory/supply constraints remain Rising interest rates Impacts on new construction Impacts on inventory Impacts on affordability Dodd-Frank changes Improve market conditions for regional lenders Permits for new construction remain constrained Federal budget impacts on demand Federal employment Procurement spending Ability to attract workers Moderate price rises, on average Market velocity likely slower
Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu