Welcome to the 6 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks October 17 th, 2013 Osage National Golf Resort
Missouri State Representative District 155 Diane Franklin
Real Estate The National Perspective Steve Snook
Steve Snook Kansas City Director RE/MAX Mid-states & Dixie Regions
20133
All Real Estate is Local With the exception of high-cost markets (primarily San Francisco south to San Diego, and Washington, DC north to Boston), as well as Seattle and Miami, house prices in most parts of the country are very affordable. With high affordability, these markets can absorb a further rise in mortgage rates before we would expect housing activity to slow substantially.
How Will Rising Interest Rates Affect Affordability? (KC Medium income 70K) Med Price 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% $144,000 $278,000 $256,000 $235,000 $217,000 $201,000
Prepare for a Boom in New Homes Sales David Liniger, RE/MAX Co-Founder October Issue of RISMedia
Drivers of New Home Business Low Supply High Demand Household Formation Population Growth/Immigration Low Inventory of Resales Rising Prices Return of Housing as Safe Long Term Investment!
What about land prices? Lack of Supply of Land Increasing Population Huge Demand Global Interest More Efficient Farm Methods Crop Prices on the Upswing
The Recovery Predictions for 2014 Rising Confidence Lower Unemployment Transaction Volume up 17% - $340 Billion Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) average return in 2013 12% Return on Apartments, Retail, Industrial 9% Home prices up nationwide Back to 2006
Red Flags Strength vs. Weakness
Big Picture Challenges United States Congress National Debt Cost & Supply of Product and Materials Employment Stability The New Normal Inflation Global Conflicts Global Warming
My Opinion of What Makes America Great is YOU! Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it! BOLDNESS has GENIUS, MAGIC, and POWER in it.
Jeff Krantz The Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Market
Ok, so where was the Lake s bottom???
3000 Total Transactions All Property Types Units Sold through 3 rd Quarter 2500 2477 2000 1891 1500 1654 1340 1371 1447 1633 1000 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 was our Lake Markets bottom in number of sales
Total Volume All Property Types 600,000,000 500,000,000 535 m Through 3rd Quarter of Each Year 400,000,000 356 m 358 m 300,000,000 250 m 246 m 253 m 285 m 200,000,000 100,000,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 In Volume of Sales 2010 was the Lake s Low
The Lake Market Bounced on the Bottom for 3 Years! 2009/2010/2011 - Very little transaction gain, within 7% - Volume change within 3% for 3 years
Climbing Out: 2012 - Increased 13% in # Sold, and 12% in Volume over 2011 2013 - Increased 16% in # Sold, and 25% in Volume over 2012
Inventory Includes all New Listings that came on the market through the 3 rd Quarter of Each Year Represents a 22% decline in New Listings from 2009
Market Absorption Rates: 6409 New Listings 2420 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 2.65 Listings 7114 New Listings 1378 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 5.16 Listings 5874 New Listings 1891 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 3.1 Listings
The Lake Market Today
Residential Waterfront Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price 2011 434 $129,415,478 $232,500 2012 506 $139,485,372 $225,000 2013 533 $167,910,953 $240,000 (+5%) (+20%) (+7%)
Residential Waterfront Market Residential Waterfront Foreclosure Sales Sales Volume 2011 41 $7,867,156 (9.5% of sales, 6% volume for that year) 2012 34 $6,903,342 (7% of the sales, 5% volume for that year) 2013 46 $8,600,231 (9% of the sales, 5% volume for this year)
Residential Off-Water Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price 2011 474 $46,582,621 $83,500 2012 517 $58,180,081 $96,000 2013 620 $81,131,622 $106,750 (+20%) (+40%) (+11%)
Residential Off-Water Market Residential Off-Water Foreclosure Sales 2011 183 $12,555,302 (39% of Off-Water sales in 2011) 2012 159 $12,875,619 (31% of Off-Water sales in 2012) 2013 153 $10,685,130 (25% of Off-Water sales this year)
Condominium Market Year # Sales Volume Median Sold Price 2011 391 $64,920,420 $150,500 2012 443 $70,004,433 $145,000 2013 461 $71,972,881 $146,000 (+4%)
Condominium Market Condominium Foreclosure Sales Sales Volume 2011 32 $3,090,611 8% of Condo sales 2012 38 $4,395,049 9% of Condo sales 2013 21 $1,994,950 5% of Condo sales
Sales Volume 2012 24 $5,377,500 2013 60 $14,329,680 Commercial Market Over a 60% increase in sales and volume! In the 2004 2006 years, commercial sales ranged from 70-75 units sold and $19 $24million in production through the third quarters of those years. Although we are not yet at those levels, the commercial interest in the lake has increased considerably this year.
In Summary: Residential Market: Increased Sales/Increased Volume Decreasing Inventory Decreasing Foreclosures Home Construction Sites are more visible Values have stabilized and this year have shown signs of appreciation in some sectors of the market.
In Summary: Condominium Market: Slightly Decreasing Inventory Flat but Stable Sales and Volume Numbers Very Few Foreclosures Majority of sales are resale units Many Stalled out/bank owned Projects being cleaned up and sold Very little new development coming online
In Summary: Commercial/Land Market: Commercial interest is on the rise. Area Growth projections are strong. Lake Lots sales and interest are increasing Quality Lake Lot Inventories are low. Farm & Acreage market doubled over units sold last year Acreage prices flat but inventories are low.
Questions?
Developer Panel: Movers and Shakers at the Lake Kent Nixon Steve Redford
Steve Redford
Sierra Bay 32 Unit Condominium Project 4 mm of the Big Niangua
The Hamptons 100+ Condominium Project 1 mm of the Grand Glaize
Harbor One 12 Unit Lakefront Villa Project 1 mm of the Osage Arm
Kent Nixon
Towne Harbour
Real Estate Predictions For 2014
Our Speakers Today Diana Franklin Steve Snook Jeff Krantz Our Development Panel: Steve Redford Kent Nixon George Bogema & Liz Sweesy
So How Did I Do With My Predictions from Last Year? One Prediction was that we would see a 10 % to 12 % increase in the sales of Waterfront Homes and Condominiums for 2013. Condominium Sales + 10% Waterfront Homes + 5% C+ On that Prediction
2 nd. Prediction: Foreclosures Predicted that Foreclosures from all sales would decrease for 19% in 2012 to 12% to 15% in 2013. 2013, Foreclosure Sales represented 14% of all Real Estate Transactions A+ On that Prediction.
Predictions for 2014 Foreclosures will continue to be a factor in our Real Estate Market but will decline to not more than 10% of our Total Sales. In 2013 we experienced a 16% increase in total Transactions over 2012, I believe that will be difficult to sustain in 2014. My prediction is that we will continue to see an increase in transactions of 8% to 10%
Mortgage Interest Rates: Still at Historic Low Rates but Increasing to the 4% to 5% Range.
Overall for 2014 Our Recovery will Continue at a Slow to Moderate Rate. Commercial will continue its Comeback with Major Developments leading the way. Inventory will continue to decline at a Modest rate and we will start to see some slight increases in property values.
What Doesn t Kill You Will Make you Stronger
FREC Tried to Confiscate 1000 Lakefront Properties. DNR Closed our Beaches because of Goose Poop. 4 Years of Recession. Government Shutdown
Real Estate at the Lake of the Ozarks is on the Road to Recovery
Thank You Remember, the 2013 Symposium Information can be found on our Website: www.lakeretrends.com