Hull Strategic Housing Market Assessment

Transcription

1 Hull Strategic Housing Market Assessment Hull City Council November 2013 Prepared by GL Hearn Limited 20 Soho Square London W1D 3QW T +44 (0) F +44 (0) glhearn.com

2 Contents Section Page 1 HULL S HOUSING MARKET AREA 3 2 POLICY AND EXISTING RESEARCH REVIEW 11 3 POPULATION / HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY 21 4 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION FINDINGS 29 5 STAKEHOLDER EVENT PRESENTATION 48 6 STAKEHOLDER EVENT ATTENDEES 49 7 STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP FINDINGS 50 8 CONSULTATION MEETING WITH THE HUMBER LANDLORDS ASSOCIATION 54 List of Figures FIGURE 1: STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET AREAS IN YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER 4 FIGURE 2: HOUSING MARKET AREA AND SUB-AREAS 8 FIGURE 3: POPULATION OF HULL FIGURE 4: ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF NET MIGRATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE BAND ( ) 23 FIGURE 5: OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC-DRIVEN PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 23 FIGURE 6: PROPORTION OF POPULATION WORKING 24 FIGURE 7: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 25 FIGURE 8: PAST AND PROJECTED TRENDS IN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE HULL 27 List of Tables TABLE 1: INTERNAL MIGRATION FLOWS BETWEEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES, MID 2006 MID TABLE 2: DEFINITION AND PROFILE OF SUB-AREAS 8 TABLE 3: PROPOSED HOUSING DISTRIBUTION IN EAST RIDING, 2012/ /29 19 TABLE 4: EMPLOYMENT RATES BY AGE AND SEX 26 TABLE 5: ESTIMATED HEADSHIP RATES BY AGE AND SEX (2011 AND 2030) 28 TABLE 6: ATTENDEES: HULL AND EAST RIDING STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENTS WORKSHOP, 3 RD SEPTEMBER GL Hearn Page 2 of 58

3 1 HULL S HOUSING MARKET AREA 1.1 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) states that local planning authorities should use their evidence base to ensure their Local Plans meet the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in their housing market area. An initial task is therefore to consider the definition of the housing market area. 1.2 In simple terms, a housing market area is a geographical area in which the majority of people who move, will move within. It is defined in the August 2013 draft Planning Practice Guidance on the Assessment of Housing and Economic Development Needs as a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between where people live and work. 1.3 The draft Guidance identifies that there is no single source of information that can be used to identify HMAs; but sets out that housing market areas can broadly be defined using three sources of information: House prices and rates of change in house prices, which reflect household demand and preferences for different sizes and types of housing in different locations; Household migration and search patterns, reflecting preferences and the trade-offs made when choosing housing with different characteristics; and Contextual data, such as travel to work areas, which reflects the functional relationships between places where people work and live. 1.4 This essentially reaffirms previous Government Guidance on defining housing market areas 1. There has therefore not been any substantive change to the approach recommended for defining HMAs since previous research. Review of Previous Research 1.5 The Yorkshire and Humber Assembly commissioned DTZ in February 2006 to identify sub-regional housing markets across the Yorkshire and Humber Region. The Study focused on travel to work movements and the pattern of household movements across the region along with distribution of employment, house prices and housing mix. It identified a Hull-focused Strategic Housing Market Area covering the City of Hull and adjacent areas of the East Riding of Yorkshire. The strategic housing market areas identified in this Study are shown in Figure 1. 1 CLG (2007) Identifying Sub-Regional Housing Market Areas: Advice Note GL Hearn Page 3 of 58

4 1.6 The 2008 Hull Strategic Housing Market Assessment (GVA Grimley, 2008) undertook further analysis of migration and travel to work patterns and confirmed that the Outer Hull Travel to Work Area (TTWA) broadly extended to the area identified in the DTZ Study. Figure 1: Strategic Housing Market Areas in Yorkshire and Humber Source: DTZ 1.7 In 2010, CLG published national level research on the Geography of Housing Market Areas which sought to consider the geographies of housing markets across England. This academic-driven project considered commuting and migration dynamics, and standardized house prices. This was brought together to define a three-tiered structure of housing markets across England, as follows: Strategic (Framework) Housing Markets based on 77.5% commuting self-containment; Local Housing Market Areas based on 50% migration self-containment; and Sub-Markets which would be defined based on neighbourhood factors and house types. 1.8 The CLG research shows that the City of Kingston upon Hull and a large proportion of East Riding fall primarily within the Hull Strategic HMA. This extends to include Bridlington and Driffield to the north of Hull, and Goole to the West. The CLG research defines a number of local housing market areas within this, which are as follows: Hull East which includes East Hull and a small area in the East Riding to the east of the City; Hull West and Hornsea which includes West Hull and those parts of the East Riding around Hull; GL Hearn Page 4 of 58

5 Bridlington; Goole. 1.9 This wider definition of the Hull SHMA was tested with stakeholders, including East Riding of Yorkshire Council. Stakeholders did not feel that the influence of the sub-regional housing market extends as far west as Goole. It should be borne in mind that the 2010 CLG research is heavily influenced by 2001 Census data which is now somewhat dated. Reviewing the Definition of the HMA 1.10 GL Hearn has sought to review the definition of the HMA through assessment in particular of migration and commuting flows which reflect the functional links between areas We have first sought to update the analysis of migration above using ONS Internal Migration Statistics. This continues to show a net outflow of people from Hull to the East Riding but suggests that the numbers vary year-on-year. The East Riding of Yorkshire is the only authority with a significant level of migration to/from Hull. The next greatest migration flows are to Leeds, followed by North Lincolnshire. Over the five year period shown, there was an average net outflow of 540 persons per annum to East Riding, 130 persons to Leeds and 70 to North Lincolnshire. The migration analysis continues to suggest a housing market area extending into East Riding, but a weak relationship across the Humber and further afield. Table 1: Internal Migration Flows between Local Authorities, Mid 2006 Mid 2011 Authority Year Ending Mid East Riding To Hull 3,410 3,140 3,250 3,460 3,300 From Hull 4,300 3,820 3,490 3,850 3,810 Net Flow Leeds To Hull From Hull Net Flow York To Hull From Hull Net Flow North Lincolnshire To Hull From Hull Net Flow North East Lincolnshire To Hull From Hull Net Flow Source: ONS Internal Migration Statistics GL Hearn Page 5 of 58

6 1.12 Until the release of origin-destination matrices from the 2011 Census, there is very little new data available regarding commuting dynamics or more local-level migration flows with which to update analysis in the 2008 SHMA. The release of further Census information will be taken into account as part of the regular review of the SHMA There is some survey-based data on commuting from the 2008 Annual Population Survey which we have considered. This continues to highlight a strong level of commuting to Hull from the East Riding, with some commuting the other way. It indicates that there may have been some growth in commuting out of Hull to work (with increases to North Lincolnshire and York, but from a very low base). Overall the evidence continues to suggest a high level of self-containment of commuting flows within Hull and East Riding. Conclusions on the Housing Market Area 1.14 Drawing the research together, the evidence does point to a distinction within the East Riding whereby it is only areas in the south-eastern part of the District which relate particularly strongly to Hull. This is consistent with the definition of the housing market area within the DTZ research, and supported by analysis in the 2008 HMA. We consider that this is the appropriate functional housing market to use for strategic planning purposes. This has been tested and agreed with East Riding Council There is a clear interaction between Hull and areas within the East Riding and it will be important that there is an alignment of planning policies across the two authorities. This Hull SHMA has thus been prepared alongside the update of a Housing Requirements Study for East Riding, with the consultants liaising to ensure consistency of approach and key assumptions For subsequent data analysis within this report we have drawn on the CLG definition of the Hull West & Hornsea and Hull East Local Housing Market Areas, and grouped these together to form the Hull Housing Market Area (HMA). Housing Sub-Areas 1.17 Within the housing market area we have sought to define sub-areas which have common characteristics in regard to their housing mix and socio-economic composition or have been defined previously as policy areas within the City for planning purposes. These are based on groupings of electoral wards (as key statistics are not consistently available below this level). The sub-areas are based on areas where a separate policy response around the housing mix may be appropriate. GL Hearn Page 6 of 58

7 1.18 The sub-areas are those with similar characteristics in terms of their housing offer (including tenure and type), and the economic and demographic characteristics of their resident population (including age, ethnicity and employment rates) In total, eight housing sub-areas in the Hull City area have been identified as follows: Bransholme Central East Ings & Southcoates Newington and St Andrew s (NaSA) North Orchard Park West 1.20 The sub-areas have been agreed with Hull City Council. Two of the sub-areas comprise the Area Action Plan areas: Newington and St Andrew s (NaSA).and the Holderness Road Corridor although it should be noted that the two AAP areas do not coincide with ward boundaries. NaSA has a high proportion of small houses in court terraces, a relatively high level of deprivation and high levels of unemployment. The Ings & Southcoates area comprises the Holderness Road Corridor to some extent. This area contains a concentration of low value housing which is poorly laid out and in sub optimal condition Other sub-areas within Hull comprise: East/ Bransholme - containing wards where there is a high proportion of social housing stock and high unemployment; Central/ Orchard Park - which is characterised by a higher proportion of flats and is ethnically more mixed and comprises a number of younger residents (students); West / North - areas where a higher proportion of residents are owner occupiers Whilst grouping wards together as sub-areas for analysis is useful, it should be noted that wards are not homogenous entities. For example, there is a particular distinction in University ward between the student area in the south and social housing in the north Figure 2 below maps the boundary of the Housing Market Area and of the defined sub-areas across the City. Those parts of the East Riding which fall within the Hull HMA are treated as a sub-area in their own right. Generally, the East Riding areas have an older and less ethnically mixed population, with higher levels of owner occupation. GL Hearn Page 7 of 58

8 Figure 2: Housing Market Area and Sub-Areas 1.24 Table 2 draws together the key characteristics of each housing sub-area and the wards which fall within them. Table 2: Sub-market Area Newington & St Andrews (NaSA) Ings & Southcoates Definition and Profile of Sub-Areas Wards Key Characteristics Newington, St Andrews - Small dwellings largely terraced - High proportion of social stock and private rented - High unemployment rate - Higher than average ethnic diversity Ings, Southcoates East, Southcoates West - Largely terraced housing with some semi detached - Higher than average proportion of retired population - High proportion of social rented with a reasonable proportion of owner occupation East Longhill, Marfleet - Mainly terraced with some semi-detached dwellings - High proportion of social renting - More elderly than average population - Low skills and income - High unemployment - Limited ethnic diversity Central Drypool, Myton, Newland - Higher than average proportion of flats and terraced stock - Includes student area (Newland) with high private renting and flatted accommodation - Overcrowding above average - Young and ethnically mixed population - Orchard Park Orchard Park & Greenwood, University - Small dwellings with above average overcrowding. - High proportion of social renting - Includes student area (part of University ward) of private renting. - Younger than average population GL Hearn Page 8 of 58

9 West North Bransholme East Riding Areas (part) Avenue, Boothferry, Bricknell, Derringham, Pickering Beverley, Holderness, Kings Park, Sutton Bransholme East, Bransholme West Beverley Rural, Cottingham North, Cottingham South, Dale, Hessle, Mid Holderness, Minster and Woodmansey, North Holderness, South East Holderness, South Hunsley, South West Holderness, St Mary's, Tranby, Willerby and Kirk Ella - Older population, high owner-occupation, middle income - Largely terraced and semi detached dwellings - High proportion of full time employment and retirees - Limited ethnic diversity - High owner occupation (less social renting) - Includes student area (Avenue) of private renting - Larger, detached dwellings - Similar housing offer to East Riding - High % in employment and in managerial roles - Higher incomes - High proportion of owner occupation - Limited ethnic diversity - Housing stock of small dwellings with higher proportion of terraced homes. - Overcrowding is above average. - High proportion of socially rented stock - High unemployment and low skills base; and higher overall levels of worklessness. - Lower incomes. - Younger than average population - Weaker housing demand - More affluent area with higher proportion of larger detached dwellings - More expensive dwellings - More affluent and elderly population GL Hearn Page 9 of 58

10 GL Hearn Page 10 of 58

11 2 POLICY AND EXISTING RESEARCH REVIEW 2.1 This appendix reviews relevant strategic housing and planning policies, from a national to local level. We also provide a high-level review identifying key findings from previous research studies which are relevant to the development of the SHMA. National Policy Framework 2.2 The Coalition Government has reformed the policy framework for planning for housing provision, revoking regional spatial strategies and returning responsibilities for determining policies for housing provision to local authorities. The Yorkshire and Humber Regional Strategy was revoked by the Secretary of State in February The primary legislation to support this is the 2011 Localism Act which includes a duty to cooperate on local authorities. 2.3 The duty applies to the preparation of development plan and other local development documents, and to activities which can reasonably be considered to prepare the way for these activities or support them (such as the preparation of evidence base studies such as this). Authorities are required by Section 110:2 of the Localism Act to engage constructively, actively and on an ongoing basis with the other authorities identified in undertaking these tasks. The Duty to Cooperate is a legal test to which development plans must comply. This is reinforced in Paragraph 179 in the National Planning Policy Framework. National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) 2.4 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March This sets out key policies against which development plans will be assessed at examination and to which they must comply. 2.5 The Framework sets a presumption in favour of sustainable development whereby Local Plans should meet objectively assessed development needs, with sufficient flexibility to respond to rapid change, unless the adverse impacts of doing so would significantly or demonstrably outweigh the benefits or policies within the Framework indicate that development should be restricted. 2.6 The core evidence for housing requirements is intended to be a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for the housing market area. Paragraph 159 in the Framework outlines that this should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures which the local population is likely to need over the plan period which: Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change; 2 CLG (March 2012) National Planning Policy Framework GL Hearn Page 11 of 58

12 Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community; and Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand. 2.7 This is reaffirmed in the NPPF in Paragraph 50 and provides the context to the preparation of this SHMA. The SHMA is intended to be prepared for the housing market area, and include work and dialogue with neighbouring authorities where the HMA crosses administrative boundaries. The preparation of a Strategic Housing Market Assessment for the housing market area is intended to be the primary means of determining policies for future housing provision. 2.8 The NPPF and Localism Act effectively set out that the responsibility for strategic planning rests with local authorities, which must work collaboratively. Paragraph 181 sets out that LPAs will be expected to demonstrate evidence of having effectively cooperated to plan for issues with crossboundary impacts when their Local Plans are submitted for examining. This has been highlighted by a number of recent local plan examinations Paragraph 158 of the NPPF also emphasises the alignment of the housing and economic evidence base and policy, and this is an issue which has been emerging in a range of recent Core Strategy/ Local Plan Inspector s Reports and representations made to emerging Local Plans. Paragraph 17 in the NPPF reaffirms this, and outlines that plans should also take account of market signals, such as land prices and housing affordability. However it also makes clear that plans must be deliverable The SHMA is intended to be brought together with evidence of land availability, from a Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. To increase housing supply, the NPPF proposes that Local Authorities should be required to maintain a 5 year supply of specific deliverable sites, and to include an allowance of 5% to ensure choice and competition in the market for land (unless there is a persistent track record of under-delivery in which circumstances a 20% buffer needs to be included) In regard to housing mix, the NPPF sets out that authorities should plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community. Planning authorities should identify the size, type, tenure and range of housing that is required in particular locations, reflecting local demand. Where a need for affordable housing is identified, authorities should set policies for meeting this need on site. National thresholds for affordable housing provision are removed as are national brownfield development targets In setting affordable housing targets, the NPPF states that to ensure a plan is deliverable, the sites and the scale of development identified in the plan should not be subject to a scale of obligations and policy burdens such that their ability to be developed is threatened and should support 3 For example Bath and NE Somerset or Coventry GL Hearn Page 12 of 58

13 development throughout the economic cycle. The costs of requirements likely to be applied to development, including affordable housing requirements, contributions to infrastructure and other policies in the Plan, should not compromise the viability of development schemes. To address this, affordable housing policies would need to be considered alongside other factors including infrastructure contributions a whole plan approach to viability. Where possible the NPPF encourages Local Authorities to work up Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) charges alongside a local plan. Practice Guidance 2.13 The Government published Practice Guidance on undertaking Strategic Housing Market Assessments in The approach in this report takes account of this Guidance New draft Guidance was issued by Government in August 2013 on Assessment of Housing and Economic Development Needs 5 as part of its review of planning practice guidance. This is relevant to the SHMA in that it provides clarity on how key elements of the NPPF should be interpreted, including the approach to deriving an objective assessment of the need for housing The Guidance defines need as referring to the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that is likely to be needed in the housing market area over the plan period and should cater for the housing demand of the area and identify the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this need. It sets out that the assessment of need should be realistic in taking account of the particular nature of that area, and should be based on future scenarios that could be reasonably expected to occur. It should not take account of supply-side factors or development constraints The Guidance outlines that whilst estimating future need is not an exact science and that there is no one methodological approach or dataset which will provide a definitive assessment of need, the starting point for establishing the need for housing should be the latest household projections published by the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) It sets out that there may be instances where these national projections require adjustment to take account of factors affecting local demography or household formation rates, in particular where there is evidence that household formation rate are or have been constrained by supply. It suggests that proportional adjustments should be made where market signals point to supply being constrained relative to long-term trends or other areas in order to improve affordability The affordable housing needs evidence is also relevant, with the draft Practice Guidance suggesting that the total affordable housing need should be considered in the context of its likely 4 CLG (August 2007) Strategic Housing Market Assessments, Practice Guidance 5 CLG (August 2013) Assessment of Housing and Economic Development Needs Draft Guidance GL Hearn Page 13 of 58

14 delivery as a proportion of mixed market and affordable housing. In some instances it suggests this may provide a case for increasing the level of overall housing provision In regard to economic evidence, the Guidance indicates that job growth and economic forecasts should be considered, and that an increase in housing provision should be considered where there is evidence that labour supply might result in unsustainable commuting patterns or reduce the resilience of local business. It cautions against reducing migration assumptions based on economic evidence unless this approach is agreed with other local planning authorities under the duty to cooperate. Housing Strategy for England & Measures to Stimulate the Housing Market 2.20 In November 2011 the Government published Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England (HM Government, Nov 2011). This outlines the Government s ambition to stimulate housebuilding, not least to support economic recovery. It identifies a number of initiatives to support this, including: New-build Indemnity Scheme providing Government-backed 95% mortgages for new-build properties; Growing Places Fund providing funding for infrastructure which unblocks housing and economic growth; Initiatives to Kick-Start Stalled Developments including proposals to allow reconsideration of planning obligations; a Get Britain Building Investment Fund to provide development finance; and build now, pay later deals with public sector land; and Custom Homes Programme with short-term project finance support for individuals looking to build their own homes The Strategy includes initiatives to support growth and investment in the Private Rented Sector, including new build-to-let models and a review of barriers to investment. It also indicates that the Government is looking at supporting greater innovation and competition between social landlords, including encouraging new private entrants to the sector, and potential new approaches to funding in the medium-term The Strategy also included provision for Reinvigorating the Right-to-Buy by raising the discounts available to tenants, but with a commitment to build a new replacement home for affordable rent for every home lost. The Reinvigorating Right-to-Buy scheme increases the discount cap to 75,000; and makes provision that receipts from sales will be retained by local authorities to deliver replacement provision. The Strategy also identified a funding steam to support local authorities in bringing empty homes back into use The Great Britain Building Fund and Growing Places Fund provide funding to unblock stalled schemes. The Government is also advising local authorities to renegotiate existing S106 GL Hearn Page 14 of 58

15 agreements where these provide a hindrance to development, including allowing developers to appeal decision for a three year period to April Since the 2011 Housing Strategy the Government has introduced a number of additional measures to try to kick-start the housing market. Of particular relevance is the new Help to Buy scheme introduced in the 2013 Budget. This provides two schemes aimed at increase the supply of lowdeposit mortgages and new housing: Help to Buy Equity Loan a new-build only scheme which expands the existing FirstBuy scheme to provide an equity loan of up to 20% of the value of a home through an equity loan. The scheme will run until April 2016 and buyers will require only a 5% deposit; Help to Buy Mortgage Guarantee a similar scheme where buyers will require a 5% deposit and the Government will provide guarantees underpinning the 95% mortgage from a commercial lender. This scheme is available for both new-build and existing homes These schemes could (and are starting to) have a real impact at stimulating effective market demand for homes as they target some of the key challenges which have restricted access to owner occupation: difficulties for households in securing mortgage finance and high loan-to-value ratios. Localism Act Housing Reforms 2.26 The Localism Act has introduced a number of reforms affecting the management of social housing. These reforms are summarised below The Localism Act gives Councils greater flexibilities in deciding who qualifies to go onto housing waiting lists through their allocations policies and how they treat tenants who want rather than need to move. Local Authorities can thus revise their allocations policies, should they wish to do so, to prevent people with no need for affordable housing from joining housing registers. Hull City Council s policies are set out in its Lettings Policy The Act has also introduced changes to social housing tenancies, giving both local councils and Registered Providers (RP s) the flexibility to grant fixed term tenancies (as well as lifetime tenancies) should they decide to do so. New fixed term tenancies would continue to be at social rent levels and tenants would have the same rights as those with existing lifetime tenancies in terms of a right to repair or to buy/acquire. A minimum fixed-term tenancy in most cases would be for five years (with two year tenancies granted only in exceptional circumstances). Shorter tenancies are considered to be one way of making better use of the existing social housing stock in meeting housing need. Specific local policies are expected to be set out in local authority s tenancy strategies. GL Hearn Page 15 of 58

16 2.29 The Government has also changed the rules on succession to make them consistent for all Council and RP tenants. The spouse or partner of a tenant who dies will have an automatic legal right to succeed, but will not have an automatic right to then pass on the property. This will not however affect joint tenancies or existing secure tenants. In Hull, the City Council outlines that Registered Providers should normally use lifetime tenancies. East Riding Council on the other hand more strongly supports the use of fixed-term tenancies Councils will be able to bring the statutory homelessness duty to an end with an offer of suitable private rented housing. People s right to refuse private rented accommodation will be withdrawn. This could potentially assist in the use of private sector housing stock in meeting affordable housing needs. There is a sizeable private rented sector in Hull The Government has also recently introduced a new nationwide home swap scheme to support mobility in the social sector. In terms of social housing finance, the Localism Act also introduces self-financing which allows Councils to keep money from rents to spend on upkeep, investment and management of their housing stock. It has also made changes to the regulation of the Social Housing Sector. Welfare Reforms 2.32 The Welfare Reform Act received Royal Assent in March This introduces the following: Household Benefit Cap; Planned introduction of Universal Credit (combining current existing benefits); Linking Local Housing Allowance (LHMA) rates to CPI; and Size Criteria for Calculating Housing Benefit in the Social Rented Sector The Welfare Reform Act introduces restrictions on how much Housing Benefit working-age households in social rented properties can claim from April 2013, based on the size of the household. Housing Benefit has been previously based on the size of the property rather than the household. This change will particularly impact on working-age households who are underoccupying homes. The applicable maximum Housing Benefit which households can claim will be reduced by national proportions based on the number of rooms households have which they don t require Universal Credit, which brings together existing benefits into a single payment, is due to be phased in from October A movement towards universal credit to provide one streamlined payment is likely to end the payments of housing benefit directly to landlords in some instances. Coupled with the caps on growth in LHA levels, this may over time make tenants on benefits less attractive to landlords. It could result in some moderating of growth in benefit claimants in the private rented sector, although this will depend on overall dynamics within the sector. GL Hearn Page 16 of 58

17 2.35 Low income households living in the Private Rented Sector are able to claim Local Housing Allowance (LHA) to assist in meeting their housing costs. LHA is determined in relation to rents in the Broad Rental Market Area (BRMA) in which a property lies In April 2011 the Government changed how LHA is calculated, shifting this from median rents in the BMRA to the 30th percentile. It has also introduced caps on LHA payments: 250 a week for a 1bed property or shared accommodation, 290 a week for a 2-bed property, 340 a week for a 3- bed property and 400 a week for properties with 4 or more bedrooms The Welfare Reform Act also indicates that increases in LHA rates from 2013 will be restricted to growth in inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rates will also be set annually rather than monthly. This can be expected to exert a downward pressure on rents, particularly in areas where LHA claimants form a significant proportion of the private rented sector market, and may encourage some LHA claimants to move to cheaper areas. Local Policy Framework 2.38 In this section we review the current or emerging policy framework for housing provision in Hull, and in adjoining authorities both north and south of the Humber. Hull City Council 2.39 A new local plan for Hull is currently being prepared. This document will contain strategic policies, site allocations and policies to guide development management in Hull up to Hull s City Plan is a non-statutory planning document to guide strategic decision making between 2013 and The key aim of the Plan is to accelerate change in the city by (above all) increasing the number of jobs (the target is to create 7,500 jobs) and helping local people fill these new jobs. The Plan identifies the energy and tourism industries as key growth sectors. It aims to reduce worklessness through a number of measures: in schools (through a Proud Parents Campaign and improving health literacy in schools), hospitals (investing in medical facilities) and improving support care systems (through programmes such as the Priority Families Programme. Housing policies and projections will contribute substantially to the delivery of the City Plan. The Plan s five priorities are: To enable Hull to become a leading UK Energy City; To make Hull a world-class visitor destination; Help residents to make their money go further; Prevention and early intervention; and Safeguarding the most vulnerable residents. GL Hearn Page 17 of 58

18 2.41 Hull s Tenancy Strategy (2012/ /18) gives guidance to registered providers of social housing on: the types, circumstances and length of tenancies that registered providers can grant and also the circumstances in which tenants may be granted a further tenancy (should their existing tenancy agreement be reaching termination). The strategy takes the recent changes to the benefit system into consideration and supports the themes in the Housing and Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy. The Tenancy Strategy sets out that affordable rented homes will be supported where essential to scheme development or where overall housing costs would be reduced. Its focus is on supporting lettings at social rents. It sets out that Registered Providers should normally grant lifetime tenancies; and that fixed-term tenancies should be granted in limited circumstances An Article 4 Direction (which removes the Permitted Development to change a house into a house in multiple occupation of 3 to 6 unrelated people) came into force in October This affects the following areas: Avenues, Pearson Park, Newland, Newland Park, Inglemire and Beverley Road. Regeneration Policy 2.43 The Housing and Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy considers how the current and future housing needs and aspirations can be met. In particular, the strategy looks at ways to support the delivery of new and improved housing. It also considers ways to minimise homelessness. The key themes of the strategy are: Increasing housing options and meeting housing need; Improving access to housing for all; Improving the quality of housing and investing in the existing housing stock; Improving neighbourhood quality; and Neighbourhood renewal and growth Hull City Council has two adopted Area Action Plans: a Newington and St Andrews Area Action Plan and Holderness Road Corridor Area Action Plan. The Kingswood Area Action Plan will reach publication stage in Spring 2014 with adoption intended for early The Newington and St Andrews AAP (adopted in February 2010) proposes major new housing development, areas for targeted investment and improvement of the housing stock, and a new green lung. In total, the AAP proposes the provision of over 1,850 gross dwellings (1,800 net) between 2008 and 2024 with an aspiration that these will help diversify the housing mix, particularly through delivery of homes with three or more bedrooms The Holderness Road Corridor AAP was adopted in March The AAP proposes to deliver 3,665 gross dwellings (1,845 net) between 2009 and 2024 with the expectation that two-thirds will have three or more bedrooms. It focuses on three areas Ings, Preston Road, and Holderness Road/ New Bridge Road aiming to improve housing quality and choice in these areas; build on the GL Hearn Page 18 of 58

19 strong sense of community, improve links to community facilities, employment and green infrastructure and deliver transformational change to the environment and perception of Preston Road. East Riding of Yorkshire Council 2.47 East Riding Council is also currently drafting its Local Plan documents. The Council is expected to submit these for examination in Spring 2014 and adoption is anticipated in Winter The local plan will cover a plan period to In the forthcoming Proposed Submission Strategy Document, which is due to be published for consultation in Spring 2014, Policy S5 states that East Riding will make provision for at least 23,800 (net) dwellings between 2012 and 2029 (an average of 1,400 dwellings per annum) Approximately 45% of the total housing provision is proposed to be located in the East Riding part of the Hull Housing Market Area. The proposed distribution of housing provision within the District is set out in Table 3 below. Table 3: Proposed Housing Distribution in East Riding, 2012/ /29 Distribution of dwellings Major Haltemprice Settlements 14.9% (3,550 dwellings) Principal Towns 45.6% (10,850) Beverley 3,300 Bridlington 3,300 Driffield 2,300 Goole 1,950 Towns 22.4% (5,341) Elloughton-cum-Brough 1,000 Hedon 91 Hornsea 750 Howden 800 Market Weighton 900 Pocklington 1,250 Withernsea 550 Rural Service Centres & Primary Villages 12.4% (2,960) Villages and the Countryside 4.6% (1,099) GL Hearn Page 19 of 58

20 2.50 Beverley, Elloughton-cum-Brough, Hedon, Hornsea and Withernsea all fall within the Hull Housing Market Area. North Lincolnshire 2.51 GL Hearn has spoken to the Planning Policy Team at North Lincolnshire Council. North Lincolnshire Council considers that it falls within a separate housing market area form Hull. Its latest (2012) SHMA indicates suggests a notable stronger level of migration between the authority and North East Lincolnshire and Doncaster than with Hull It adopted a Core Strategy in 2011 which sets a requirement for 12,063 dwellings between in accordance with the Yorkshire and Humber Regional Spatial Strategy (taking into account delivery between ). The Council prepared a Strategic Housing Market Assessment in 2012 which identifies an overall need for housing ranging from 10,750 homes (based on a migration led scenario) to 16,840 homes (based on an economic-driven scenario which includes major employment generating proposals at South Humber Gateway). The Council has indicated to GL Hearn that at the point in time of discussion it hopes to be able to meet all of its own housing needs, and does not anticipate that there is an unmet need which might need to be considered as part of the Hull SHMA The Core Strategy distributed the housing requirement with 82% to be delivered in Scunthorpe and 18% across the five market towns of Barton upon Humber, Brigg, Crowle, Kirton in Lindsey and Winterton. The target for affordable housing in North Lincolnshire ranges between 20 and 30%. North East Lincolnshire 2.54 North East Lincolnshire Council is currently drafting a new Local Plan. The Council has published its New Local Plan Issues and Options Paper for public consultation The RSS figures for North East Lincolnshire planned for the provision of 510 net additional dwellings per annum. This reflected household projections, economic forecasts and opportunity, land supply and demand and affordability. In the Initial Issues and Options Paper, the Council set out that it believed that this figure remains robust, as the Council is confident that the renewable sector will aid economic growth The Council has prepared a Strategic Housing Market Assessment for its administrative area. This concludes that there is a need for 9,650 dwellings over the plan period (508 per annum, net). It has been progressing work on its Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) and is due to consult on a draft Local Plan in January and February GL Hearn Page 20 of 58

21 3 POPULATION / HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS METHODOLOGY Introduction 3.1 In Section 6 of the main report we provided a series of demographic projections to study likely future housing requirements in the City. This appendix runs through some of the more detailed assumptions and data sitting behind this analysis. Baseline Population 3.2 The baseline for our projections is taken to be 2011 with the projection run for each year over the period up to The estimated population profile as of 2011 has been taken from the 2011-based SNPP (Figure 3). The overall population in 2011 was estimated to be 256,123 with slightly more males than females. Figure 3: Population of Hull 2011 Age group Male Female Ages 0-4 8,959 8,432 Ages 5-9 7,265 6,853 Ages ,166 6,627 Ages ,688 8,223 Ages ,266 11,788 Ages ,225 10,140 Ages ,028 8,338 Ages ,879 8,206 Ages ,971 8,572 Ages ,123 8,856 Ages ,005 8,048 Ages ,977 6,778 Ages ,972 6,831 Ages ,815 5,041 Ages ,044 4,529 Ages ,274 4,080 Ages ,166 3,316 Ages 85+ 1,510 3,132 All Ages 128, ,790 Source: 2011-Mid-Year Population Estimates Ages % 1.2% Ages % 1.3% Ages % 1.6% Ages % 1.8% Ages % 2.0% Ages % 2.7% Ages % 2.6% Ages % 3.1% Ages % 3.5% Ages % 3.3% Ages % 3.2% Ages % 3.3% Ages % 4.0% Ages % 4.6% Ages % 3.2% Ages % 2.6% Ages % 2.7% Ages % 3.3% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Female Male GL Hearn Page 21 of 58

22 Fertility and Mortality Rate Assumptions 3.3 For modelling of fertility we have used the rates contained within the ONS 2010-based population projections. For the period from 2011 to 2030 the total fertility rate (the expected average number of live births per woman throughout their childbearing lifespan) has been calculated to be 1.90 in 2011/12 and reducing down to 1.67 by 2029/ We also interrogated the ONS 2010-based projections with regard to death rates which suggested that life expectancy is expected to increase over time for both males and females. It is not possible to provide exact life expectancy figures from the 2010-based SNPP as this to some degree will depend on the assumptions made about the death rates for age groups beyond 90 (the ONS data stops at a figure for 90+). However in modelling life expectancy we suggest that the figures will see an improvement from 76.3 to 80.1 for males from 2011 to 2030 with figures of 80.5 to 83.8 expected for females. 3.5 We have no evidence to suggest that either the fertility or mortality estimates used by ONS are unreasonable and note that the expected figures and changes in Hull are consistent with past trend data and future expected patterns as published by ONS on a national basis. Migration Assumptions 3.6 For the purposes of understanding the profile of migrants we have again drawn on the ONS and 2011-based sub-national population projections (Figure 4). Over the period from 2011 to 2030 the ONS figures show an average annual level of net out-migration of 213 people made up of inmigration of 11,751 and out-migration of 11,964. The data clearly shows that the most important age groups are from 15 to 39. The data also shows net in-migration of those aged but net out-migration for most other age groups. 3.7 When projecting migration patterns for the various projection scenarios we have used the migration data and adjusted levels of in-migration to match the requirements of our scenario (e.g. when testing what level of migration is required to support a workforce of a particular size). This approach has consistently been adopted across all analysis. GL Hearn Page 22 of 58

23 Estimated annual level of migration (people) Hull Strategic Housing Market Assessment, November ,000 Figure 4: Estimated annual level of net migration by five-year age band ( ) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Inflow Outflow Balance , Age group Source: Derived from ONS 2010-based population projections Employment Rate Assumptions 3.8 With the change in demographic structure will come changes in the number of people who are working (as the population of people of working age changes). The next stage of the projection process was therefore to make estimates about how employment levels would change under each of our main projections and also to consider the demographic implications of different levels of employment growth. The process is set out in Figure 5 below. Figure 5: Overview of Economic-Driven Projection Methodology 3.9 The first stage of the process was to establish working patterns in the local authority. Figure 6 below shows data on the proportion of people living in the City who were in employment (based on the proportion of the population aged who are working). This latter data has also been provided for the Yorkshire/Humber region and Great Britain. GL Hearn Page 23 of 58

24 % of those aged who are working Hull Strategic Housing Market Assessment, November The data shows that overall the proportion of people working has been quite variable over time generally the trend has been downward although figures from 2009 show some levelling off of the employment rate. Data for Hull shows a broadly similar pattern to that seen regionally and nationally albeit that the rate for Hull appears to have dropped more significantly than in other areas. It is also noteworthy that throughout the period studied the employment rate in the City is well below regional and national averages. Figure 6: Proportion of Population Working 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% 56% Hull Yorkshire/Humber Great Britain 54% Year Source: Annual Population Survey 3.11 Part of the problem with the Annual Population Survey source used above is that data is based on only a sample of the population and therefore figures can be quite variable at smaller area level. We have therefore also drawn on data about unemployment to give an indication of how employment rates may have changed over the past few years. This is shown in Figure 7 below and shows that unemployment has risen from a typical pre-recession level of about 8% to average closer to 15% in recent years. GL Hearn Page 24 of 58

25 % of those aged who are not working Hull Strategic Housing Market Assessment, November 2013 Figure 7: Unemployment Rate 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Hull Yorkshire/Humber Great Britain Year Source: Annual Population Survey (modelled data) 3.12 In addition to using the above data to provide an overall picture of working patterns, 2001 and 2011 Census data and information from the Annual Population Survey has been used to inform the distribution of workers by age and sex. In projecting forward is it assumed that there is a latent labour force that could be brought back into work as a result of reducing unemployment. This improvement is assumed to occur consistently over the life of the projection. The modelled improvement to employment rates will have the effect of reducing unemployment The modelling also includes provision for potential increases in rates due to changes in pensionable age these additional changes have been based on studying the age-specific drop-off in employment as people get older Table 4 shows the age specific employment rates used for modelling in 2011 and From the population modelling exercise it was estimated that in mid-2011 there were 110,903 people in employment with an employment rate of 63.9% - due to the modelled improvement in rates along with changes in pensionable age this figure rises to 70.3% by 2030 (roughly equivalent to reducing the level of unemployment from 15% back to around 8%). GL Hearn Page 25 of 58

26 Table 4: Employment Rates by Age and Sex Age group Male Female Aged 16 to % 36.6% 31.7% 34.6% Aged 20 to % 60.0% 53.2% 58.0% Aged 25 to % 81.6% 67.0% 73.2% Aged 30 to % 85.8% 69.1% 75.4% Aged 35 to % 85.0% 68.5% 74.7% Aged 40 to % 84.8% 73.7% 80.5% Aged 45 to % 82.3% 73.3% 80.0% Aged 50 to % 83.6% 76.8% 83.9% Aged 55 to % 70.4% 60.4% 65.9% Aged 60 to % 47.5% 27.2% 40.0% Aged 65 to % 9.5% 7.5% 9.9% Aged 70 to % 4.1% 3.5% 3.8% Source: Modelled from APS and Census data (2001 and 2011) Household (and Housing) Growth Projections 3.15 Having estimated the population size and the age/sex profile of the population the next step in the process is to convert this information into estimates of the number of households in the area. To do this we use the concept of headship rates. For the purposes of this analysis we have used information contained in the 2011-based CLG household projections about the relationship between the total population in an age group and the number of household reference persons (HRPs) in that age group Headship rates can be described in their most simple terms as the number of people who are counted as heads of households (or in this case the more widely used Household Reference Person (HRP)) Figure 8 shows the estimated average household size in Hull in 2001 and 2011 along with estimated household sizes derived from CLG projections. The data clearly shows that household sizes have been declining and are expected to continue to do so moving forward (albeit at a slightly lesser pace towards the end of the projection period). For the purposes of the projection it is assumed that average household sizes start at about 2.28 in 2011 and reduce down to 2.18 in 2030 (although exact figures do vary depending on the projection being run). GL Hearn Page 26 of 58

27 Figure 8: Past and projected trends in Average Household Size Hull Trend (Census) Projected (CLG 2011-based) 2.15 Year Source: Derived from ONS and CLG data (including 2011 Census) 3.18 Table 5 shows headship rates derived from the analysis for each of the key periods of 2011 and The data shows that whilst most headship rates remain at a fairly constant level over time there are a number of groups where notable changes are projected to occur (both in an upward and downward direction and particularly in relation to females). GL Hearn Page 27 of 58

28 Table 5: Estimated Headship Rates by Age and Sex (2011 and 2030) Age group Male Female Ages % 3.8% 5.8% 6.5% Ages % 34.8% 23.0% 23.1% Ages % 65.8% 34.0% 36.1% Ages % 72.2% 33.9% 36.3% Ages % 82.0% 31.7% 31.6% Ages % 92.4% 29.4% 27.6% Ages % 93.8% 26.5% 23.3% Ages % 93.2% 27.7% 30.6% Ages % 96.2% 29.1% 35.4% Ages % 95.8% 30.8% 36.8% Ages % 98.0% 36.8% 38.6% Ages % 98.3% 43.8% 40.4% Ages % 96.2% 54.9% 44.7% Ages % 94.3% 67.0% 55.8% Ages % 88.4% 65.7% 61.6% Source: Derived from CLG 2011-based household projections 3.19 When applying these headship rates to the population an estimated number of households in 2011 of 112,453 is derived. This figure is consistent with the number of households shown in the 2011 Census and the mid-2011 estimate in the CLG household projections In converting an estimated number of households into requirements for additional dwellings a small vacancy allowance has also been factored in which is normal to allow for movement of households between properties. For the analysis it is assumed that around 3% of additional stock will be vacant which should be reflective of what can be achieved in new housing stock. GL Hearn Page 28 of 58

29 4 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION FINDINGS Introduction 4.1 The aim of this section is to report the key findings of qualitative research into housing market conditions and emerging trends affecting the study area. The findings provide a context to the study and provide answers to how and why the housing offer has evolved and what is driving change. The section also reports engagement with adjoining and other nearby local authorities which are relevant in regard to co-ordinating strategic planning for housing, in accordance with the duty to co-operate introduced in the 2011 Localism Act. 4.2 The section includes information obtained from face to face interviews with estate agents, letting agents, members of the Humberside Landlords Forum and on-site new build sales staff in the City and relevant parts of the East Riding of Yorkshire. Interviews with registered providers, local authority private rented sector enforcement, housing and planning officers were undertaken during July This section thus describes the views of individual agents and stakeholders; rather than those of the GL Hearn or Hull City Council. The views expressed represent those of stakeholders at a point in time the point at which this assessment has been undertaken. On this basis it is important to interpret the findings of stakeholder consultation described herein in context; and these in some instance may differ from data and analysis found elsewhere within the report. 4.4 Findings and narrative are based upon our research questions which seek to understand the local housing market. The main market segments are the owned and rented tenures. The owned tenure is broken down into new build and second hand housing. Additional supply is mostly by means of new build housing delivered by volume housebuilders; and it is especially important to understand the characteristics of new build housing and households that purchase or occupy it. On a smaller scale, local builders and self-builders develop smaller infill and windfall sites. We have only investigated volume developers with on-site sales staff. Besides new-build development, notable other sources of supply are bringing long term vacant homes back into use, converting houses into flats and the house share market. Hull City Council has an active programme seeking to bring empty properties back into use Rented housing includes the private rented market and affordable housing. The private rented sector includes a number of market segments, including a student market, other shared housing and the rent of whole properties. Overlaps between the main segments occur and these are investigated. 6 The supply from this source is quantified in Section 3 GL Hearn Page 29 of 58

30 Servicing the Local Housing Market 4.6 Estate and letting agents together with landlords service the housing market and are a group of stakeholders that are central to the Study. The location of their businesses and the area they cover can inform housing market area and sub area boundaries. This is because they are intermediaries between buyer and seller and are only effective where buying and selling geographies coincide. There are many noteworthy features of how local markets are serviced in the study area. 4.7 West of Hull there are a number of small towns and villages, notably Hessle, Anlaby, Willerby and Cottingham, all of which have estate and/or letting agents. There are six agencies in Willerby and this is noteworthy given the limited number of agents from the City Centre. All of these agents offer dwellings in a housing market area they refer to as West Hull, which generally refers to the suburbs and villages beyond the City boundary in the East Riding, together with the western part of the City. 4.8 Other estate and letting agents are found on the main transport corridors. Cottingham Road has mostly letting agents facilitating the student housing market. Other sales and letting agents are found on Holderness Road, Beverley Road and in Sutton Village. Only two agents were found in the City Centre in the vicinity of Queen Street. Agents revealed that many agencies left the City Centre following the downturn in business in the aftermath of the credit crunch. 4.9 Valuable information was also obtained from on-site sales staff of volume house builders. Sites were visited in Cottingham, Cottingham Road, Kingswood and Boothferry Road. Agents in the East Riding market town of Beverley explained that there is a very strong connection between Beverley and the Kingswood development but not the rest of Hull. This was because Kingswood is easily accessible via the Beverley South West By-Pass and current phases offer a significant supply of new homes to first time buyers buying with the benefit of Help-to-Buy or similar earlier shared equity schemes. Area-based Analysis The West Hull Sales Market 4.10 The West Hull housing market includes the western parts of the City and nearby settlements in the East Riding including Anlaby, Willerby and Cottingham. Sales agents were interviewed in Hessle, Anlaby, Willerby and Cottingham. The concentration of sales and lettings agents in Willerby was notable as was the wide range of housing on offer covering sales and lettings for West Hull, into the City Centre. All agents referred to the market area they cover as West Hull The agents consulted all considered that prices were generally 20% or so below their peak and flat, and likely to remain so. They all reported a trend of increasing sales volumes but commented that GL Hearn Page 30 of 58

31 volumes were erratic on a month by month basis. All agents reported that sales were overwhelmingly to existing households within the West Hull area and even the premium housing would rarely be sold to someone outside the area. Agents stated that this was because the City was geographically isolated and was highly self-contained in terms of housing, services and jobs. We asked both independent agents and agents employed by national chains this question and found no difference in the response. All said that properties were visible nationwide through Rightmove and that the level of local demand was due to local market conditions rather than marketing Sales to investors tended to be for the cheapest housing on the market and most sales were at auction. Investors from the Midlands were making enquiries at this time. Agents believe that this is due to a combination of cheap asking prices, regeneration programmes and the prospect of major inward investment in the City Regarding first time buyers, agents stated that they had yet to return to the market in significant numbers. Deposits were now around 10% with 5% being available to those with outstanding credit ratings. Agents believed that the market could not recover in terms of sales volumes until first time buyers returned as they were needed to complete chains. One agent believed that their return was imminent as there was pent up demand and some had had as much as 7 years to save a deposit to get a good interest rate on a mortgage. Others were less optimistic, citing the difficulty faced by households who were both renting and saving There were some notable differences between the towns and villages. A supply of retirement housing was a feature of Anlaby, otherwise the housing on offer was a mix of houses and bungalows with few purpose built flats apparent. The major employer is within the health sector with a private hospital on the outskirts or Anlaby and a major NHS hospital at Cottingham. The University of Hull has facilities at Cottingham. Cottingham agents stated that hospital staff were not dominating the town s housing market. Staff commuted from all over Hull. Agents at Cottingham believed that there was a shortage of bungalows in the area in relation to demand. Agents believed that there was scope for more 2 bedroom terraced homes to be sold into the private rented sector. No agent believed that there was a need for large scale new development in the West Hull local market area. West Hull Lettings 4.15 Staff from a specialist letting agency was interviewed, however most of the estate agents had added lettings to their business due to decreased demand for sales and increased demand for lettings following the credit crunch. The specialist agency covered all of Hull and the East Riding. GL Hearn Page 31 of 58

32 4.16 All agents reported that rents were mostly static and quite uniform across the area with some landlords preferring to keep good tenants at existing rent levels rather than seek higher rents and incur costs associated with vacancies. Rents per calendar month (pcm) were typically reported as follows: 2-bed flats: 370 pcm; 2-bed houses: 425 pcm; and 3-bed houses: 495 pcm Agents said that there was a shortage of three bedroom homes to rent. Rents across the city are generally above Local Housing Allowance (LHA) levels. Rents in the East Riding villages to the west are considerably higher A minority of landlords would accept tenants in receipt of benefits described as DHS cases. Agents remarked that they housed mostly West Hull residents and a significant number of eastern European migrants who were employed in distribution, food processing and other low skilled low wage occupations The Private Sector Housing Manager for East Riding Council was interviewed specifically to comment upon issues occurring in the East Riding parts of West Hull and settlements to the east of the City. Our attention was drawn to general concerns about growth in the number of small Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMOs). These would be under the size threshold for registering with the local authority. Growth in this sector was being driven by the low wage economy and benefit reform with a growing number of small households unable to access 1 bedroom self-contained homes at a price they could afford. Some potential tenants were eastern European migrants who brought with them a culture of sharing housing. The manager explained that concern was for the health and safety of occupants, sharing exposed them to additional health risks with shared cooking and bathing etc. facilities. The manager also stated that this was a lifestyle choice for many young professionals, some of whom would prioritise the quality of their social life over their housing The officer acknowledged that investors were responding to the size and nature of demand but stated that some investors were business people and some were landlords. Some investors may not have a complete grasp of their responsibilities as landlords The officer agreed that households unable to access a social tenancy or home ownership would seek housing in the private rented sector, however in his experience, a social tenancy was the rented tenure of choice. GL Hearn Page 32 of 58

33 West Hull New-Build 4.22 We came across a new-build site at Holtby Gardens, east of Cottingham. The sales agent stated that all sales had been to West Hull residents and none to investors. The proportion of sales assisted by the Government s Help-to-Buy Scheme (and earlier similar schemes) had been massive and the sales office had been particularly busy since the Help-to-Buy Scheme was introduced in April. The agent pointed to a key change introduced in the Help-to-Buy scheme which enabled households to buy larger homes than they needed than under FirstBuy rules. Interest had been strong from households without children. In addition the company offered their own products to assist buyers who were existing home owners. Asking prices were from 144,950 upwards, which was higher than starting prices on the major Kingswood development north of the city A number of key regeneration schemes are also progressing. Keepmoat is delivering new homes at the Amy Johnson, nr Hessle Road; and at its Scholars Gate scheme, on the former Riley College site. The Hawthornes development is in its second phase which comprises 491 homes with between two- and four-bedrooms with asking prices ranging from 81, ,000. The Riley College scheme comprises 350 two- and three-bed homes in Phase 1 with asking prices between 108, ,000. Both schemes also include affordable housing provision. Beverley (Sales and Lettings) 4.24 Agents in Beverly were interviewed. This East Riding market town is five miles north of the Hull City boundary and is of interest because of its distinctive character and because the East Riding Council has its main offices there and is a major employer across the sub region Agents stated that with the exception of movement between Beverley and the Kingswood development; the connection with Hull City or West Hull was not particularly strong. They said that the connection with the York area was stronger (in relative terms), even though it was further away. Agents said that that this was largely due to Beverley s prices being more affordable to residents of York than residents of Hull They were aware of workers commuting to East Riding Council s offices from Hull and the south bank but stated that in the last few years, relocation from these areas to Beverley was rare. Commuting was facilitated by a good road network and easy access to the Humber Bridge They also remarked that households tended to leave Beverley and could not afford to return. They cited the Kingswood development in Hull as evidence of this. They were aware of households had left Beverley to become first time buyers at Kingswood, due to its supply of relatively cheap new build housing made accessible through Help-to-Buy. GL Hearn Page 33 of 58

34 4.28 The rental market in Beverley served both local households and young professionals who may work locally or commute to employment further afield. Kingswood (New-Build) 4.29 This large urban extension has been under development for many years and now has significant local services, retail, leisure, health services and schools; as well as good road links to all parts of the City and beyond. Sales staff from three developers were interviewed. Each developer had a distinct offer At the entry level part of the market, sales agents said that 95% of sales had been to Hull residents and those that had bought or resided in earlier phases of construction and 5% to investors although the proportion of investors had been higher on earlier phases. Around 50% of sales were supported with Help to Buy or NewBuy and FirstBuy A second sales agent offered new homes that were entry level and above but offered more in terms of fine tuning layout and specifications. At this site it was reported that most sales were to Hull and former Beverley residents The third developer offered larger homes with higher specifications. Here a notably higher proportion of enquiries and sales had been from households relocating from outside Hull. Around one third of sales had been to households from cities linked by the M62 and from the south of England. Sales were to professionals notably employees of the NHS and the large employers in Hull in the chemical and related industries. The agent stated that many sales had involved part exchange but few had involved Help-to-Buy or NewBuy. East Hull Housing Market (Sales and Lettings) 4.33 Agents in Sutton Village serviced homes to the east of the city, the Bransholme Estate and many of the East Riding villages and small towns to the east of the city boundary The characteristics of much of the area to the west of Sutton Village make it difficult to describe the tenures in isolation. The area to the north of Sutton is known as the Bransholme estate and originated as a large area of social housing in the 1960s. A significant proportion of the stock was sold under the right to buy and has since been subject to re-sales or purchase and letting by investors. When visiting the area we noted that part of the estate was being prepared for demolition. The agent stated that most of the sales in this area were to local people and investors. Vacancies were of keen interest to both groups as many homes can be found for sale for 60,000 or under. Many sales were urgent or enforced due to relationship breakdown or debt related problems. Agents reported that good volumes of sales were achieved as there was rapid turnover. GL Hearn Page 34 of 58

35 4.35 Regarding lettings an agent said it will let before it sells. Rents were broadly in line with Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates for Hull and the East Riding although some 3 bedroom homes were offered at rents above the LHA. This means that landlords would let to DHS cases although agents commented that landlords were very nervous about the cessation of direct payments. Relatively few lettings were advertised. Agents said that vacancies were snapped up and there was a lot of churn. We found no evidence to base an assessment of the proportion of direct letting by landlords which we would expect to happen in Hull as is often the case in areas of lower value rentals The East Riding villages to the east of the City were smaller and more dispersed than those to the west described above. Including Sutton Village, overall market conditions were very similar to those in the East Riding to the west of the city. Hull City Centre Sales and Lettings including Victoria Dock 4.37 There are relatively few estate agents in the City Centre. However one was interviewed which was located in Queen Street. The agent explained that they offered a service for City Centre housing and apartments and also specialised in housing situated in the Victoria Dock The agent reported that recent City Centre sales were 50% for owner occupation and 50% investors. Investors would typically let to young professionals and higher rents precluded benefitsupported tenants The agent described Victoria Dock as executive housing that attracted a high proportion of incomers with families who were professionals working in local industries and the NHS. Prices remained static, except for three bedroom houses that were in short supply and attracted a premium. City of Hull outside the City Centre 4.40 As previously noted, a number of main roads radiate out from the City Centre, principally Hessle Road, Anlaby Road, Beverley Road leading to Cottingham Road, and Holderness Road. These roads are lined with housing, and small scale commercial and retail enterprises. Occasionally there are clusters of shops and services that act as local service centres for the housing estates that feed off the roads and in turn have smaller local services that are clustered together The quality, value and nature of the residential areas varies greatly. Older terraced housing is found just off the main roads and concentrated near to the older docks to the west. Then there are areas of private housing some studentified (see below) - and large areas of housing constructed as council housing estates now home to private owners and tenants due to the effects of the rightto-buy sales, regeneration and redevelopment. It is noteworthy that parts of Beverley Road and Spring Bank house and sustain communities from Eastern Europe and the Middle East. GL Hearn Page 35 of 58

36 4.42 Independent estate and letting agents were visited on Newland Avenue and Holderness Road. These agencies were notably busier than others visited during our survey The Newland Avenue agent stated that the majority of private sales were to local people but there was a lot of interest from investors both for student lettings and private lettings but few lettings were made to households claiming benefit. The agent said that due to demand, prices were rising as were sales volumes and first time buyers were purchasing homes up to a 100,000 asking price. However many potential purchasers were attracted to new build at Kingswood. Many local people worked in retail and less skilled areas of work in the service sector and industry The Holderness Road estate and letting agent interviewed stated that first time buyers had a local price ceiling of 80,000 and anything cheaper was snapped up by investors. First time buyers would not buy the cheapest housing on the market due to the high cost of renovations and risk to the lender. The agent said that some parts of the area had been subject to flooding in 2007 and there was a shortage of 3 bedroom family housing for sale. The agent was asked to estimate the proportion of housing subject to tenancy in the surrounding area of quiet family housing. They estimated that 1 in 4 homes were rented and the proportion was rising fast compared to near 100% home ownership 15 years ago. We observed that much of the residential upper part of Holderness Road was occupied by families with younger children. This was readily apparent when we headed back to the City Centre as schools were closing for the day We visited new build sites at Cottingham Road (Newland Court) opposite the University, and Anlaby/ Boothferry Road (Amber). Newland Court consists of high specification new build larger detached homes. The sales agent stated that all sales were to professionals or retired professionals who had been attracted by the quality and community feel of the development and its close proximity to the University, schools and services. Across the development over 60% of sales were to people from outside the immediate local area, although many recent sales were to local people. The agent described the diversity of people that had come to live here including university lecturers, health service professionals and migrant workers. In contrast, Amber was occupied 100% by Hull residents, 80% of whom had purchased with the assistance of the Help-to-Buy Scheme or its predecessors. The agent commented that these circumstances were possibly the effect of pentup demand and the lack of new build in that part of the City. Topic Based Consultation Findings Housing Market Recovery 4.46 As previously mentioned, agents were asked whether prices had started to recover. Agents were also asked to describe the housing market conditions that might signify market recovery. This was a challenging question given the impact of the credit crunch and the widespread flooding that GL Hearn Page 36 of 58

37 affected Hull previously. Agents were clear that recovery is about more than rising prices. It was more to do with supply in terms of increased sales volumes and fewer constraints on buyers, especially in connection with access to mortgage finance. Most agents felt that an important factor would be the return of first time buyers to the re-sale market However, many agents said that a wider consideration was the local economy. In particular, the local housing market would not recover (to its full potential) until the economy was kick-started by major inward investment, citing the above mentioned Siemens project Hull City Council economic development officers were asked to comment on this view. They thought it an accurate view and went on to describe local labour market conditions and the impact of the credit crunch and recession. They described an isolated labour market with only higher earners able to access alternative labour markets. These markets were distant and some not easily accessible (Leeds, York, Scunthorpe). They also described a weakened manufacturing sector that was not fulfilling its potential due to the lack of affordable loan finance to fund the cash flow needed for expansion. Worse, companies would seek to improve their cash flow by making late payments to suppliers impacting on the supply chain. The Hull City Plan includes a target of creating 7,500 jobs over the next decade and helping local people to fill these jobs. It includes measures to support job creation across a range of sectors including in the energy sector and tourism. The growth potential in the tourism sector can be expected to have been boosted by the designation of Hull as the UK City of Culture 2017 in November We note the logic of Hull City Council s policy aspiration to create capacity in the labour market for growth through decreasing local unemployment Officers were also asked about recent reductions in toll prices for using the Humber Bridge. They thought that this could facilitate greater movement between the Hull and South Bank housing and labour markets but the main impact would be to reduce commuting costs. Self-Build 4.50 Agents were asked to comment about local interest in self-build. Most said that there was little interest or opportunity in densely built areas of the City. One agent pointed out that when valuing a dwelling it was incumbent on him to point out if more value could be achieved by selling part of a large garden for development potentially a self-build site East Riding planning officers stated that self-build was a small proportion of new build across the area. It tended to occur mainly where owners had large gardens and sought to release value. It also occurred when households wanted to accommodate older infirm or disabled family members in annexes although planning conditions might be imposed. GL Hearn Page 37 of 58

38 4.52 However Buildstore advertise building plots online 7. In June 2013 this website was advertising 15 plots across Hull and the East Riding with around one third in the City of Hull A number of independent and commercial websites exist to support self-build. The National Self Build Association 8 is noteworthy, in particular its aim to double the self-build and custom build sector s contribution to new homes built annually from 8% to 16% by 2020, through lobbying government, landowners and finance providers. Government recognises that the growth potential in this sector of the market. House Share /Spare Room 4.54 There is evidence that house sharing enabled by the internet is becoming established in Hull. Our search for vacancies on revealed a significant supply of single rooms from approximately 50 per week and double rooms from per week. Our search revealed 193 current vacancies. Some were aimed at students. Other websites were examined but aggregating vacancies might be misleading due to double counting vacancies that appear on more than one site. We have noted the tendency for university cities such as Hull to have a larger spare room or house share market. We have highlighted the spare room market as the evidence across our studies suggests that this is a growing lifestyle choice amongst young people especially young professionals not wanting to commit to home ownership or unable to access it. It offers the student shared housing model to ex-students and can result in the cheapest and most flexible way of living in their area of choice. Consultation regarding the Private Rented Sector 4.55 Interviews were held with The Humber Landlords Forum (HLF), The National Landlords Association (NLA) and the Hull CC Private Sector Enforcement Team A meeting was held with representatives of the HLF. A detailed account of this meeting is appended to the report in Appendix 8. The account was amended and approved by those present at the meeting. The Humber Landlords Forum consider that: More should be done to address the oversupply of one and two bedroom rented dwellings in the City and that further building of such homes for social rent should not be proceeded with. Further, the City Council should recognise the potential contribution of landlords and investors to local regeneration as they are stakeholders; The need for a further 5,000 social housing units was questioned when there was so much affordable private rented housing available already in the City. Addressing the oversupply would lead to the environmental improvement of key parts of the City; See GL Hearn Page 38 of 58

39 The failure to address the over-supply will increasingly result in negative income and negative equity for some landlords. If re-possessions are sought this will impact upon the tenants, the City Council through homelessness claims and could trigger a further cycle of house price reductions; At this time the reality is that those who could afford more expensive rented housing would seek it outside the city boundary; There is some re-structuring taking place in the student housing market due to a fall in demand. Whilst some landlords are able to diversify others aren t and it is believed that the introduction of an Article 4 directions will have an unintended negative impact in neighbourhoods with high proportions of student lettings; Questions need to be answered as to why the Council is promoting development in the Kingswood area when it should be instead promoting the regeneration of the two areas in Newington St Andrews and Holderness Road Corridor which are already subject to the two area action plans; and. Private rented stock in Hull is priced so that it is effectively offering affordable housing already for those who would otherwise qualify for social housing A regional spokesperson from the HLF provided further insights into private rented sector issues generally and in Hull in particular. He commented that in general terms market conditions in Hull were favourable to experienced portfolio landlords who had invested into re-sale rather than new build housing. New build presented additional risk especially in the apartment market although many owners chose to become landlords as their circumstances had changed and were unwilling to sell at a loss. To do so they would have to convert their mortgage to a buy to let mortgage and he felt that it should be more widely understood that the terms and conditions of a buy to let mortgage placed constraints on landlords. The terms and conditions prevented them from letting to sharers and households claiming housing benefit and doing so may also invalidate their insurance. He remarked that few landlords in this situation managed to make a profit after financing and other costs were taken into account and this is why local portfolio landlords are seeking to operate mainly in the re-sale market The NLA offered a perspective on what drives landlords. Whilst a social landlord is generally not for profit, private rented sector landlords are business entrepreneurs who need to make a return on their investment. The spokesman felt that Local Authorities did not really understand the sector and described some policy interventions as misguided and unnecessary, citing Article 4 directions 9 and licensing schemes in particular. He believes that a way needs to be found for landlords to become part of the solution not part of the problem; working together to improve quality and supply gaps in the market. The spokesperson was asked to say more about attitudes to Article 4 directions. He believed that they are a policy tool for a growing student market rather than a shrinking market. Some landlords were letting to single benefit claimants but this was not an easy option for landlords. There were cultural issues with students in Hull and many other cities. Students are tolerated because of the benefits of having a university in a city and their support for the local economy. 9 An Article 4 direction in this context restricts permitted development rights in an identified area, in this case in particularly requiring planning permission to be obtained for changes of use of dwellings (Use Class C3) into Houses in Multiple Occupation (Use Class C4). GL Hearn Page 39 of 58

40 However their presence in large numbers can affect the housing supply and alter the character of a neighbourhood. In his experience students and benefit claimants did not mix. Students were better tenants. They generally lasted the academic year, managed their bills and were reliable payers. Single benefit claimants were exactly the opposite. Unlike working assured shorthold tenants, single benefit claimants could find that their circumstances changed quickly and may leave without notice. In shared houses the landlord had to take responsibility for energy bills and they needed very intensive management. So taking everything into account he could understand that a landlord may choose to close and board up surplus student accommodation rather than seek alternative tenants especially in the larger houses. Regarding vacant housing, the spokesperson believed that scale of the problem was no different to other large cities. What was different was the market conditions within Hull. The spokesperson emphasised the value of having a majority of landlords that lived locally and that took an active interest in their portfolio. He said that absentee landlords had bought portfolios in other nearby cities and that this was causing severe problems for tenants and the local authority A representative from the private sector housing enforcement team provided further perspectives on multi-occupied housing outside the student sector. Licensing was mandatory for the larger ones. There were large concentrations on Spring Bank and Beverley Road. The officer had observed some accommodation coming out of the student sector and being occupied by migrant workers. Selective licensing of smaller multi-occupied dwellings was a possibility similar to that envisaged by the East Riding. This was largely driven by migrant workers coming to work in the city. Hull CC had consulted on introducing such a scheme some years ago but instead opted for a pro-active approach involving landlord training and a code of conduct. The department received around 1800 service enquiries per year across all sectors. These were mostly about condition and disrepair: excess cold, dampness, fire safety, general hazards and falls. The officer commented that regeneration plans in the city had dawn in a number of outside investors who had bought stock and mothballed it. A change in Government policy had resulted in delays to programmes and it this was regrettable. The officer pointed out that the challenges in North Bransholme were different to some of the other regeneration areas. Its location on the northern fringe of the city meant it was a less popular option for people and this affected demand. Many local landlords had broader portfolios that included property outside the regeneration areas. The officer contrasted these professional landlords with the single dwelling amateur landlord, some of whom had little grasp of their obligations. Student Housing 4.60 This section reflects consultations that referred specifically to student housing. The previous section should be read also as it considers student housing within the wider private rented sector market. The university offers halls of residence and access to private rented sector accommodation GL Hearn Page 40 of 58

41 via its accredited landlord scheme known locally as The Scheme. Private rented sector student housing exists within a concentrated area near the university either side of Cottingham Road and in the Newland area of the City. Most letting agents do not engage with the student market and a number of specialist student accommodation agencies are clustered on Cottingham Road, a short distance from the University. A detailed interview was undertaken with one such agency The proprietor pointed out that they, like other nearby businesses, were owners of a large portfolio of student houses. They would not quantify the number of buildings in ownership or the number of bed spaces offered. They stated that there was oversupply in the student market which was situated local to the University. Hull students preferred to live close to the university and this meant that housing was highly concentrated. The agent explained that the council was consulting on whether to apply Article 4 directions in some areas and this was likely to prove problematic for landlords wishing to downsize their student portfolio. The agent believed that landlords would rather board up and leave dwelling unoccupied than offer un-let dwellings to the general market or let as non-student HIMOs. The agent believed that the oversupply was down to a reduction in student numbers especially foreign students. The proprietor also has a portfolio of dwellings for general letting under assured shorthold tenancies. They said they would let to benefit supported tenants but landlords were very choosy. They preferred to let to young professionals most of whom worked in Hull An interview with the Hull CC Private Rented Sector Enforcement Team also focussed on student housing especially the aspects of quality and standards. The Council participates in The Scheme and undertakes random inspections. The officer observed that The Scheme is one factor amongst others that is leading to a change in the market. Student and parent expectations of quality are growing, and competition between landlords has intensified for a smaller student market in the City. It was explained that the Article 4 direction proposal is the outcome of change over time that is not just about student housing. The gap in the market left by the establishment of the University of Lincoln and its main campus in Lincoln has been filled in part by international migrants. They have gradually been replaced by growing student numbers at the University of Hull. Local communities have seen a lot of change and the Council is seeking to support them. In addition to the Article 4 proposals the Council has improved the street scene in Newland. Affordable Housing 4.63 Interviews were held with several Council officials and registered providers and in addition to the general information collected we asked questions relating to issues raised by landlords Places for People is the Council s regeneration partner in West Hull. It has partnered Keepmoat on a number of regeneration projects from 2003 and has a significant portfolio of social rented housing GL Hearn Page 41 of 58

42 across West Hull. This includes parts of the East Riding, however Places for People is not currently a lead partner for the East Riding Council. The Places for People spokesperson spoke of a valued relationship with Keepmoat. Notably new build specifications and layouts are agreed between the partners. The City influences the size and mix of the dwellings under construction and will nominate households for both new and re-let housing. Places for People did not believe that there was an oversupply of affordable housing in the City. Officers find that the situation in Hull is different to most cities that they operate in across their region which stretches from the North East to the East Midlands. Specifically a smaller proportion of lettings are made to households in high housing need and fewer than 20% of tenancies are let to benefit dependant households. There is a high proportion of nominations from the City for private rented sector tenants. The spokesperson stated that market conditions allowed them to operate sustainably in the City however there were constraints. An important part of their funding in Hull comes from rent conversion. This is the process of raising extra revenue by offering vacant social housing re-lets at affordable rents. Officials explained that vacancy rates were lower than expected with Places for People tenants staying put. Secondly market rents in Hull are quite low and this means that the gap between affordable and market rents is narrower than in other housing market areas Riverside Housing became the social landlord for the North Bransholme Estate following a large scale voluntary transfer (LSVT) from Hull City Council. It owns and manages other stock in the City, notably for older people following a merger with a specialist provider. It has bid to become the preferred provider for extra care housing for older people and people with learning disabilities funded through the Private Finance Initiative. One intended site in the Ings Regeneration Area in East Hull where Riverside is already providing new homes for affordable rent with developer Lovell. The spokesperson described a close working relationship with the City and the sharing of design team resources on key projects. The new build for affordable rent mix was driven by local gaps in supply. Referring to North Bransholme, the spokesperson explained that a baseline survey had been carried out so that the effectiveness of regeneration could be monitored. There was a recognition that for regeneration to be effective there had to be co-operation with the private rented sector to achieve results. Whilst you could buy for less than the cost of building repair and improvement costs had to be taken into account in order to achieve the required standard of quality for social rented housing Hull City Council housing officers were interviewed to obtain insights into the role and management of the Council s affordable housing stock. We were also interested in the areas where the Council was involved with the private rented sector for housing service rather than enforcement. Officers explained that ended and failed private rented sector tenancies accounted for around 30% of homeless applications to the Council. There had been limited engagement with the private rented sector in providing leased housing for homeless families. The Council was anxious to operate a GL Hearn Page 42 of 58

43 preventative approach to homelessness, seeking to assist with housing options and if necessary support tenants to find suitable private rented sector housing. For example the Council would assist with bonds and was moving to a loan based system Officers explained the priority system that was the framework for the choice-based lettings system. The majority of lettings were to households in priority group C. This was a group in some housing need but not urgent housing need. Urgent cases did not overwhelm the available social housing supply, unlike in other cities. Officers interviewed mostly agreed that for those households for whom home ownership was not an option, Hull City Council would be the landlord of choice. For this reason the aim would not be to use the private rented sector for satisfactory housing solutions for homeless cases in most cases, or registered providers for that matter. Officers said that a main policy challenge at the moment was to deal with a large group of persistent rough sleepers. An urgent challenge was also to deal with demand from people affected by the changes to Housing Benefit eligibility for working-age households in the social rented sector (the bedroom tax ). Officers cited the drastic scaling back of the Supporting People budget which had adversely affected support available for some residents, some of whom were rough sleepers. There is now a backlog of demand for smaller units of accommodation. The Council had always incentivised tenants to downsize but the bedroom tax had put considerable pressure on the one-bedroom stock. There was evidence that some sheltered housing was in low demand and this was being addressed. Consultation with Other Local Authorities 4.68 The SHMA has been informed by a detailed programme of engagement with East Riding Council. This has included engagement with both the Council s housing and planning departments. Alongside this SHMA, the East Riding Council has commissioned consultants GVA to update its Housing Study. GVA and GL Hearn have worked with each other to coordinate these studies A joint meeting between officers and consultants for the two studies was held on 3 rd September 2013, followed by a joint Stakeholder Event in the Guildhall in Hull. Both consultants and officers from the two authorities have continued to engage with one another in the preparation of the studies East Riding Council s consultants has confirmed that its assessment of housing need takes account of demographic and economic trends; and that its recommendations do not assume that there is any adjustment to migration or commuting dynamics between the East Riding and Hull (such as based on policy factors) 10. This approach is consistent across the two studies which thus present a consistent evidence base, but one which does not make policy decisions regarding the future 10 Confirmed through telephone conference call on 17 th July 2013, through joint meeting on 3 rd September 2013 and in follow-up phone call with GVA on 21 st January GL Hearn Page 43 of 58

44 distribution of housing provision. Any adjustments to housing provision based on policy aspirations would need to be agreed by the two authorities In addition to consultation with East Riding Council, GL Hearn has sought to engage with North East Lincolnshire Council. North East Lincolnshire Council has indicated to GL Hearn 11 that their latest housing evidence is set out in their May 2013 SHMA. This confirms (consistent with this SHMA) that there are limited migration and commuting flows between North East Lincolnshire and Hull and that they fall within separate Housing Market Areas. The Council suggested that it is undertaking further work to consider housing needs including developing economic forecasts which would inform its conclusions on housing need; but at the point in time of discussion that the Council did not anticipate that there is an unmet need which might need to be considered as part of the Hull SHMA GL Hearn has also spoken to the Planning Policy Team at North Lincolnshire Council 12. North Lincolnshire Council considers that it fall within a separate housing market area form Hull. It adopted a Core Strategy in 2011 which sets a requirement for 12,063 dwellings between in accordance with the Yorkshire and Humber Regional Spatial Strategy (taking into account delivery between ). The Council prepared a Strategic Housing Market Assessment in 2012 which identifies an overall need for housing ranging from 10,750 homes (based on a migration led scenario) to 16,840 homes (based on an economic-driven scenario which includes major employment generating proposals at South Humber Gateway). The Council has indicated to GL Hearn that at the point in time of discussion it hopes to be able to meet all of its own housing needs, and does not anticipate that there is an unmet need which might need to be considered as part of the Hull SHMA. Stakeholder Event 4.73 A joint stakeholder event for the two studies was held in the Guildhall in Hull on 3 rd September There were over 40 attendees including housebuilders and their representatives, registered providers, landlords and tenant representatives, the Humber Landlords Forum, and representatives from adjoining and nearby local authorities. The event was structured to include: Presentation of the emerging findings of the Hull SHMA; Scope and approach to the East Riding Housing Local Housing Study Update; Questions to the consultants; Workshop Session; Group feedback and close. 11 By telephone call on 4 th September and subsequent s 12 By telephone call with Planning Policy Team, 21 st January 2014 and subsequent s GL Hearn Page 44 of 58

45 4.74 The workshop session was structured to consider a range of key topics including: housing market dynamics; factors to be considered in determining how many homes to plan for; factors affecting policies regarding the mix of homes which might be sought in Hull; and the interaction between Hull and the East Riding. The Stakeholder Event presentation is set out in Appendix 5. A list of attendees is set out in Appendix The questions raised by stakeholders at the event included a number of clarification points related to elements of the presentation and findings. Key points raised by stakeholders included the following: Humber Landlords Forum indicated that they considered that there was a significant supply of empty homes (numbering over 6,000) which could be brought back into use. GLH indicated that this could potential be treated as a source of supply where it could be demonstrated that supply was available and bringing properties back into use was achievable. Other stakeholders however commented that some empty properties are due to be demolished; and that empty homes are often not in areas which are desirable for families. A national housebuilder indicated that whilst sales volumes across the area which they cover (Yorkshire) have improved, prices had remained flat. They suggested that the market was beginning to improve before the Government s Help-to-Buy scheme was launched, but that the scheme has helped to support an improving situation. The housing market in Hull is influenced by lower levels of economic participation than in other parts of the region; and there remain issues of negative equity for households which may have bought 3-5 years ago towards the top of the market. Sales of 2- and 3-bed properties in East Riding have been doing well. The market is expected to be sensitive to interest rate rises. Within Hull, property values can however make new development challenging in some circumstances. Overall it was thought that the local housing market was generally flat; and that recovery in the market was likely to be behind the curve relative to other parts of the country and region; Stakeholders pointed towards the importance of the economy and job creation within the housing market area as an important driver of housing market conditions. They pointed towards the importance of economic investments including from Siemens, and delivery of the economic initiatives set out in the City Plan. These economic drivers are important if Hull is to sustain delivery of homes per annum. Stakeholders considered that for private rented accommodation the supply and demand for housing was broadly balanced; but pointed to rents falling in some areas including the City Centre and Newland Avenue area over recent years. They also pointed to the potential impact of the Local Housing Allowance caps as potentially influencing future rental trends; The discussions included considering the future demand profile for rented housing. Some attendees asked whether young people s aspirations were changing and whether they were happy to rent for longer; recognising the additional flexibility which rented accommodation provides. However there was a recognition that as people move into their 30s there remains an aspiration to own a home. A housing association which specialises in meeting the needs of older people aged over 55 suggested that aspirations of older residents may also change; with a need to provide better quality homes and bungalows. They pointed to a need for smaller ground floor accommodation, such as 1-bed flats. Others pointed for a need mainly for 2- and 3-bed properties. A number of stakeholders commented on the impacts of the introduction by Government of the so-called bedroom tax which has led so some difficulties letting larger 4+ bed affordable homes; and increased need for smaller properties. It was commented by the Humber Landlords Association that there is a significant supply of smaller properties in the private rented sector. GL Hearn Page 45 of 58

46 Stakeholders recognise that rents in the private sector and affordable housing sector in Hull are similar. Some suggested that shared ownership is unlikely to be particularly relevant in the Hull market at present. Relatively low land values for residential property in Hull was also highlighted; which in some instances can impact on development viability particularly where there are other constraints (such as flood risk) which can increase build costs. The importance of place-making investment was emphasised in regard to supporting the growth of city living and the flatted market. Other stakeholders pointed towards trends for de-conversion of larger character properties to single dwellings; the potential for use of publically owned land to deliver family housing in locations close to facilities; a demand and aspiration from older residents for bungalows. Some stakeholders pointed to the importance of a joined-up strategy in Hull and surrounding areas in the East Riding; with Hull needing more larger homes and the East Riding needed more smaller homes Appendix 7 sets out the notes from the Workshop Sessions. Overall Findings 4.77 The Hull Housing Market Area is diverse and below we seek to draw attention to a number of issues. Key views expressed by stakeholders were that: The housing market is highly self-contained. Based upon recent sales and lettings the housing market includes the parts of the East Riding that are adjacent to the City. Some Beverley households seek housing that they can afford in Hull s local housing market, especially in new build housing; Currently there is new build occurring across the City, both speculative development and as a consequence of regeneration. This is in the form or new build for sale and social rent at affordable rents. Some further new build for specific needs is being planned. Current new build housing is mostly occupied by local people rather than people moving to the area; New build sales have been strongly supported by the Government s shared equity schemes and have attracted many first time buyers. However economic recovery and growth within the HMA will be necessary to support recovery in housing market conditions. Agents believe prices and volumes will not recover until the local economy is kick-started by major inward investment and the return of first time buyers to the re-sale market; Well located high specification executive family housing, both new build and second hand, attracts people to the HMA and there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that this is the only sector where prices are increasing; There is presently very little self-build occurring in the Housing Market Area. Government is however promoting growth within this sector; Some stakeholders believe that the City has a sufficient supply of social housing to meet its statutory duties under homelessness legislation and houses people in relatively low housing need. This means that the City is able to offer housing to low income working households, unlike other cities; The City has a large Private Rented Sector. There has been strong growth in supply and demand for private rented sector housing due to mortgage lending criteria imposed by lenders following the credit crunch. There is no apparent upward pressure on rents as there is a significant supply of housing in the City; GL Hearn Page 46 of 58

47 The growing use of the private rented sector by households has implications for local authorities and social housing in that a significant proportion of homeless enquiries are as a result of private rented sector tenancies ending or failing; There is a reluctance on the part of many landlords to house benefit supported households, although this is less likely to be the case in the regeneration areas; There is evidence that there is an oversupply of student housing in the short-term, due to a reduction in student numbers. It is difficult for some landlords to diversify if the dwelling is subject to a buy-to-let mortgage as these are likely to prohibit multi-occupancy or occupancy by households claiming benefit; Market conditions in the city of Hull support established private rented sector portfolio holders. Conditions are difficult for some single dwelling amateur landlords where the dwelling is subject to a mortgage; and those that are over exposed to the City Centre apartment market; Although we have reported fully on the views of the Humber Landlords Association, a summary of their views is that they consider that the City Council could do more to: address surplus housing stock; increase the pace of regeneration; work with them to address local supply shortages and surpluses; and reduce the burden of regulation enabling them to react quickly to changing market conditions Engagement with other local authorities has confirmed that Hull s housing market area stretches into surrounding parts of the East Riding; but not to the south of the Humber. At the time of the assessment, adjoining local authorities are not expecting Hull City Council to meet any unmet needs arising from their areas. This situation should however be kept under review. GL Hearn Page 47 of 58

48 5 STAKEHOLDER EVENT PRESENTATION GL Hearn Page 48 of 58

49 03/04/2014 Hull & East Riding Strategic Housing Market Assessments Stakeholder Event Tuesday 3 rd September 2013 glhearn.com Introductions Nick Ireland Planning Director, GL Hearn Lead Hull SHMA Chris Broughton CBA Stakeholder Engagement, Hull SHMA Nicola Rigby Associate, GVA Lead East Riding Housing Requirements Update glhearn.com 1

50 03/04/2014 Purpose Government says planning policy should be based on meeting full need for market and affordable housing in a housing market area Objective assessment of need for housing in Hull and East Riding Hull SHMA addresses the following: How Many Homes? East Riding work focuses on updating assessment of housing numbers What Mix? Needs of Specific Groups glhearn.com Hull SHMA: Bringing the Evidence Together Today is about bringing together and testing emerging findings with you Population & Economic Trends/ Forecasts On-going Stakeholder Engagement Hull-East Riding Interactions Housing Market Dynamics Evidence Base for Plans Affordable Housing Need glhearn.com 2

51 03/04/2014 Hull Housing Market Area glhearn.com Housing Sub-Markets within Hull City In Hull we are also exploring what mix of housing the Council should seek in different areas Eight sub-markets: NaSA Ings & Southcoates East Central Orchard Park West North Bransholme glhearn.com 3

52 03/04/2014 Presentation Structure What housing is here now? Housing market dynamics How many homes are needed to 2029/30? What mix of homes? glhearn.com Existing Housing Mix 4

53 03/04/2014 Existing Housing Mix Tenure 117,000 homes across the Hull HMA High existing social rented housing 30% of Hull City s housing stock (10 pp above regional average) Concentrations of social rented housing particularly Bransholme & Orchard Park Large private rented sector 20.5% households in the City, with high levels in NaSA and Central areas glhearn.com Existing Housing Mix Types/ Sizes Housing offer in Hull City focused on smaller/ cheaper properties 43% of stock has 1 or 2 bedrooms 88% properties in Council Tax Bands A/ B 49% terraced homes, 17% flats Hull s suburbs are really in East Riding Larger family homes Drives net out-migration from the City glhearn.com 5

54 03/04/2014 Housing Development Trends: Hull HMA Completions in Hull modest for a City of its size glhearn.com Gross Completions in Hull City glhearn.com 6

55 03/04/2014 Demolitions and Losses in Hull City glhearn.com Housing Market Dynamics 7

56 Median House Price Trends ( ) 03/04/2014 House Prices: Hull City Some of cheapest housing in England: av. price in Hull 89,000 in 2012 glhearn.com House Price Trends: Hull City 200, , , , , , , , , , , , , Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q Hull Yorkshire and Humber England 140, , , , , , , Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q Hull Yorkshire and Humber England glhearn.com 8

57 03/04/2014 Housing Market Conditions Significant volume of flats and terraced stock selling for < 80,000 Very few sales of detached homes in the City, and relatively weak market for flats in short-term Relative prices/ demand weakest in East; highest prices in West and North Hull but below regional average & East Riding Housing market performance clearly inter-linked with macro-economic factors Access to mortgage finance/ loan to value ratios Inflation and slow earnings growth Economic growth/ market confidence glhearn.com Sales Trends Sales in % down on prerecession average (vs. 45% across England) Improvements to mortgage availability & Help to Buy scheme We expect market recovery in Hull to be more modest & phased over longer period vs. other parts of UK Economic recovery needed to support sustained recovery in local market glhearn.com 9

58 03/04/2014 Stakeholder Feedback Consultation Aims and Method The aim is to gain a finer understanding of drivers, dynamics, trends and ensure that the report takes into account the local context and housing market conditions. Three phases of stakeholder consultation Initial phase (completed): Face to face interviews with estate and letting agents & new build sales staff 1:1 consultation and fact finding with wider stakeholders: private rented sector landlords and enforcement, affordable housing Today is the third phase your input is important glhearn.com 10

59 03/04/2014 Headline Findings The housing market is highly self-contained. Includes the parts of the East Riding that are adjacent to the city New build sales: local people, first time buyers with help to buy Well located high specification executive family housing, both new build and second hand, attracts incomers - there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that this is the only sector where prices are increasing Flooding in 2007 and the credit crunch in 2008 are the factors underlying little apparent recovery in the housing market prices Agents believe prices and volumes will not recover until the local economy is kick-started by major inward investment and the return of first time buyers to the re-sale market glhearn.com Headline Findings (cont.) The city is able to offer social housing to low income working households - unlike other cities The City has a large private rented sector. There has been strong growth in supply and demand for private rented sector housing due to mortgage lending criteria imposed by lenders following the credit crunch. There is no apparent upward pressure on rents as there is a significant supply of housing in the city There is evidence that there is an oversupply of student housing due to a reduction in student numbers glhearn.com 11

60 03/04/2014 Affordable Housing Need Affordability of Market Housing Average household income in Hull is 24,000 25,000 Income required to access different tenures without subsidy Income of 18,000 is required to access market housing without subsidy 36% of households have insufficient incomes to afford rises to 51% in East and Orchard Park, and 57% in Bransholme 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,700 Buy 18,000 14,400 Private rent Affordable rent 13,100 Social rent glhearn.com 12

61 03/04/2014 Basic Needs Assessment Model Used model as recommended in Government Guidance This assumes that in theory all households in need will be allocated affordable/ social housing - we have also examined the contribution of the private rented sector to meeting housing need glhearn.com Affordable Housing Need Estimated housing need ( ), excluding the development pipeline Area Backlog need Newly forming households Existing households falling into need Total Need Supply Net Need Estimated PRS Lettings to Unique Households NaSA ,041 1, ,205 1,311 Ings and Southcoates ,695 1, East ,005 2, Central ,124 4,080 2,309 1,771 1,834 Orchard Park ,794 1, West 632 1,072 1,232 2,936 1,689 1,247 1,645 North , Bransholme ,633 1, Hull 4,138 5,559 7,702 17,399 12,787 4,612 6,955 glhearn.com 13

62 03/04/2014 Affordable Housing Need (cont.) Strong interaction and movement between parts of private rented sector and affordable housing Welfare reforms may impact on the dynamics between the two sectors: Single room allowance for under 35s Bedroom tax (housing benefit entitlement for working-age households) Caps on growth in LHA Policies on affordable housing need to be carefully considered in this light and taking into account plan-wide viability glhearn.com Future Housing Requirements 14

63 Index (1981 Population =1) 03/04/2014 Objectively-Assessed Need Identifying full need for market & affordable housing Demographic Projections A range of factors need to be drawn together: Focusing on demand-side factors not supply-side issues Economic Evidence Objectively Assessed Need Affordable Housing Need Backlog vs. past targets? Housing Market Outlook glhearn.com Population Dynamics Hull City Hull s population grew by a modest 2.5% between Comparative Population Growth glhearn.com East Riding England Hull Yorkshire & Humber 15

64 03/04/2014 Demographic Projections: Approach Chronology of data releases: 2008-based SNPP: May based CLG: Nov based SNPP: March based SNPP: Sept based CLG: April 2013 Revised MYEs: April SNPP uses pre-census migration assumptions Sensitivity of projections to: Migration Headship rates Employment rates & commuting glhearn.com Demographic Projections Projection Type Demographic-Driven Projections Run PROJ 1 (Linked to and 2011-based SNPP) PROJ 2 (10-year migration trends) PROJ 3 (5-year migration trends) Economic-Driven PROJ A (Jobs baseline) PROJ B (Residents in Employment) PROJ C (Stable economic activity) Component Projections PROJ W (Zero net migration) PROJ X (Zero Employment Growth) glhearn.com 16

65 03/04/2014 Population Growth Projections glhearn.com Net Migration: Hull (SNPP) glhearn.com 17

66 03/04/2014 Outputs of Demographic Projections Projection Population Growth Housing Numbers Employment Growth Per annum % change Per annum % change Per annum % change PROJ 1 (SNPP) 1, % % % PROJ 2 (10-year migration trends) 1, % % % PROJ 3 (5-year migration trends) % % % PROJ A (Jobs baseline) % % % PROJ B (Residents in employment) % % % PROJ C (Stable Economic Activity) % % % PROJ W (Zero net migration) 1, % % % PROJ X (Zero employment growth) % % 0 0.0% glhearn.com Bringing the Evidence together Housing need/demand relative to the size of Hull s population is modest lower relative demand for homes relative to other parts of the UK Housing requirements sensitive to future migration to/from the City this is likely to be influenced by economic performance (and strategy?) It would not seem appropriate to plan for a continuation of recessionary conditions through to 2030 but net out-migration of between persons pa reasonable GLH consider that demographically-driven need for homes would result in objective assessment of need for homes pa. Economic evidence suggests that economic performance could result in lower demand for housing than this but potential impact of LEP Strategy/ interventions glhearn.com 18

67 03/04/2014 Bringing the Evidence together (cont.) Net completions fell -3,220 dwellings below Yorkshire & Humber Regional Plan targets partly reflects demolitions, but also limited effective demand. No evidence that reductions in household sizes have been constrained Low level of affordable need shown by SHMA, taking into account role of private rented sector and whilst overcrowding has grown this appears reflect limited housing choice rather than a structural issue Further work on-going to confirm housing numbers, particularly in: On-going discussions with GVA/ East Riding Policy choices about supporting economy/ changing migration glhearn.com Need for different types/ sizes of homes 19

68 03/04/2014 Considering Housing Mix Policies for housing mix in Hull need to be carefully considered, balancing: Current housing need/demand evidence Overall housing offer and balance within this Degree to which housing can support economic growth Policy ambitions- strategic and local Despite high existing social housing (30%) there remains a housing need in some areas not least due to worklessness/ unemployment But no net need for social/ affordable rented in East, Bransholme or Orchard Park City-wide the private rented sector largely meets the notional shortfall of affordable housing can meet needs for some groups glhearn.com Affordable Housing Policies Taking account of viability findings, an affordable housing target of 15% might be reasonable but with a focus on creating housing pathways City-wide target of : 50% intermediate 50% affordable/social rent But this needs to be applied carefully at a more local level taking account of: Existing needs evidence and level of affordable and PRS housing Local evidence of specific needs e.g. from larger families; disabilities Over time this should re-orientate housing offer towards larger private sector, and hopefully owner-occupation glhearn.com 20

69 03/04/2014 Mix of Affordable Housing Sizes Modelling suggests 74% of net need for additional affordable homes for 1 or 2-bed properties to but stronger degree of need from family households; and benefits from delivery of larger homes in managing stock Strategic City-wide mix recommended: 1-bed: 35-40% 2-bed: 35-40% 3-bed: 15-20% 4+bed: 5-10% Should be applied taking account of local evidence of need/ current stock glhearn.com Affordable Mix Number of Bedrooms Sub market Level Sub-area 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedrooms NaSA 15.2% 38.0% 40.5% 6.3% Ings and Southcoates 3.7% 36.5% 51.2% 8.6% East 2.8% 39.7% 49.3% 8.2% Central 17.4% 47.4% 27.0% 8.2% Orchard Park 7.4% 24.5% 55.7% 12.4% West 7.5% 39.4% 44.5% 8.6% North 3.8% 30.3% 55.1% 10.8% Bransholme 2.8% 24.8% 60.8% 11.6% HULL 7.8% 36.6% 46.4% 9.2% glhearn.com 21

70 03/04/2014 Mix of Market Housing Market evidence suggests demand profile focused towards 2 and 3-bed properties. Larger 4+ bed homes market more from in-migrants could be a strategic case to promote provision on appropriate sites Some households may seek to downsize as the population structure ages Recommended strategic mix of market housing to monitor against: Recommended Strategic Mix Last 10 Years Completions 1-bed 5% 21% 2-bed 30% 29% 3-bed 50% 35% 4+bed 15% 15% glhearn.com Market Housing Mix Number of Bedrooms Sub Market Level Sub-area 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedrooms NaSA 43.1% 37.6% 17.6% 1.7% Holderness Rd Corridor 32.0% 50.8% 16.5% 0.7% East 32.6% 54.4% 13.0% -0.1% Central 54.5% 35.8% 8.7% 1.0% Orchard Park 26.2% 51.8% 21.9% 0.1% West 45.4% 34.6% 18.4% 1.6% North 39.1% 28.5% 28.9% 3.5% Bransholme 38.3% 43.9% 18.2% -0.4% HULL 40.7% 40.0% 18.0% 1.3% glhearn.com 22

71 03/04/2014 Needs of Specific Groups Specific Needs Students University is reviewing student housing needs. Although FT student numbers growing , PRS demand has recently fallen. Future may be influence by trends in student numbers. Older Persons Population aged 55 in Hull expected to increase by 15% over the next 10 years. Households are more likely to live in social rented sector with growth expected to increase affordable housing need. Projected 47% increase in residents with dementia (+1,200) and 40% increase in those with mobility problems (+2,700) to 2030 may require support and/or adaptions to properties Growth in need for specialist housing expected in particular linked to improvements in life expectancy glhearn.com 23

72 03/04/2014 Specific Need (cont.) Disabilities Projected 19% increase in people with a long-term heath problem or disability to 2030 (+9,300). But just 4.2% of households on the Housing Register now are recorded as having a disability BME Households 10% of Hull s population from a BME background. These groups are more likely to live in private rented or overcrowded homes or on housing register. Overcrowding strongest in White Other and Asian households glhearn.com East Riding Housing Requirements 24

73 03/04/2014 Date Month Date Month GVA 3 rd September 2013 East Riding of Yorkshire Local Housing Study Update Stakeholder Workshop Nicola Rigby, Associate gva.co.uk What will be covered? Project scope Data updates since 2011 study NPPF requirements the objective assessment of need Our approach Cross-border considerations Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk 25

74 03/04/2014 Project scope Update to 2011 Local Housing Study to take account of: New demographic and economic data National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requirement to objectively assess need for market and affordable housing Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk Data updates 2011 Census data 2011 based mid-year population estimates (interim) 2011 based household projections (interim) Up to date data from HM Land Registry and East Riding Council 2013 Employment Land Review update Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk 26

75 0-4yrs 5-9yrs 10-14yrs 15-19yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs 90+yrs 0-4yrs 5-9yrs 10-14yrs 15-19yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs 90+yrs 03/04/2014 A changing age profile ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Males 2011 Males 2001 Females 2011 Females Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk Understanding population change +5,000 +4,000 +3,000 +2,000 +1, /2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/ /11-1,000-2,000 Net International Migration Net Internal Migration Natural change Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk 27

76 03/04/2014 Migration flows by age Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk Economic factors Net exporter of labour Ratio of 1.28 % 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of York Selby Leeds Scarborough North Lincolnshire Ryedale Wakefield Others % 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of York Selby Doncaster Others Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk 28

77 03/04/2014 Economic factors 8.0 Unemployment rate - aged yr Ave Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk Economic forecasts REM Baseline Model REM Scenario Model Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk 29

78 03/04/2014 Objectively assessing need National recognition of need to deliver housing to meet growing demand Local authorities new responsibility to establish locally derived housing targets for inclusion in the Local Plan NPPF states that in order to boost significantly the supply of housing, local planning authorities should: use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area, as far as is consistent with the policies set out in this framework (NPPF, para 47, bullet 1) Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk Interpretation of policy by Inspector s Dacorum and Eastbourne Core Strategy Examinations highlighted importance of starting an assessment of need from the official household projections Alignment of planned housing and the potential of the economy to grow cited in the Rother and East Hampshire Local Plan inspections Affordable housing need also noted as requiring consideration through the East Hampshire Local Plan Examination Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk 30

79 03/04/2014 Our approach Demographic modelling approach Approach involves the development of alternative what-if scenarios Alternative levels of employment Changing migration and commuting patterns Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk Our approach Consideration of a range of benchmark scenarios: SNPP 2010 Migration-led 5yr Migration-led 10yr Jobs-led Dwelling-led All produced using 2008 CLG headship rates and 2011 rates Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk 31

80 03/04/2014 Cross-boundary considerations Need for further sensitivities? Zero net migration? Constrained migration? Economic activity by age? Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk Next steps Feedback from workshop today Sensitivity analysis of scenarios to date Consideration of policy implications Adjacent authorities Environmental and infrastructure capacity Land supply Housing delivery Short presentation title here / November 2010 gva.co.uk 32

81 03/04/2014 Questions Workshop Session 33