Affordable Housing in South Africa How is the market doing?

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1 1 Affordable Housing in South Africa How is the market doing? Kecia Rust & Adelaide Steedley International Housing Solutions Industry Conference September 2013, Johannesburg

2 2 Overview Mapping the affordable market Top 9 metros Joburg to Msunduzi Housing Performance Value / Price / Transactions / Bonded sales / Churn / New registrations Lending performance What is affordable? All suburbs predominantly residential 200+ indicators at suburb, metro and national level benchmarks, indexes From Key indicators across markets Market size properties, values and prices, bonds, ownership type Thinking about opportunities Market activity sales, lending, registrations, churn StatsSA first time available at suburb level, thanks! Households, population, income, employment Index aggregate indicators, weight for importance, score, by area, over time

3 Mapping the affordable market 3 How have we defined affordable? Properties in areas where average value is: Less than R Between R R More than R Affordable to households in the FSC target market affordable areas New and resale market Sometimes subsidised: RDP / BNG / Discount Benefit Scheme FLISP Metro property market size, 2012

4 Housing Performance Index 4 Housing Performance Index, By Metro, Housing Performance Index, By Affordable Areas, How do affordable markets fare? More growth More growth More growth Less growth Less decline More growth Less growth More growth Less decline

5 Housing Performance Index 5 How can we assess affordable market growth efficiently? Our methodology: Determined the most important indicators of property market performance Weighted them by reflection of market growth Scored them against the national benchmark Trended the scores over time Aggregated scores into Growing, Stable or Slow Most affordable housing markets are growing faster than the wider metro residential property market. In 2012: 7 of 9 metro affordable areas grew faster than the market overall in those cities, and 8 grew faster than the national average, while only 2 metros grew faster than the national property market Housing Performance Index Total Score 2012 Affordable Areas Score Metro Buffalo City City of Cape Town 0 5 City of Johannesburg City of Tshwane Ekurhuleni Ethekwini Mangaung Nelson Mandela Bay Msunduzi Average

6 Housing performance: Value & Price Are affordable markets underleveraged? 6 Average Property Values to Sales Prices All metros& within Affordable areas, Sales prices and values have been on an upward trend since the dip in 2008/2009. All metro areas: values vs prices Nationally, across the 9 metros, prices and values are more closely related Better market information? Better connection between buyers and sellers? Value Price Metro affordable areas: values vs prices Affordable area sales prices have lagged values since 2009 Less market information? Less connecting points between buyers and sellers Less access to credit?

7 Housing performance: value & price appreciation 7 Property Value Appreciation All metros and within Affordable areas, Residential property values in affordable areas are growing faster than across all metro areas, each year since 2008, except 2009 Yet sales price appreciation lags the whole: a function of credit? Affordable areas Sales price appreciation All metros and within affordable areas, All metros All metros Affordable areas

8 Housing performance: Transactions by Price 8 Transactions by price All metros, While market share of transactions has shifted a great deal over the years, in 2012 transactions under R were about the same rate as in 2007, about 33% of all transactions. In 2009, 40% of all sales transactions were under R

9 Housing Performance: Transactions & Bonds 9 Sales and Bond Transactions, All metros and within affordable areas, All transactions Sales transactions plummeted from , rose slightly to 66% the 2007 figure in Sales in affordable areas remained relatively stable, and buffeted the drop in All bonded transactions Mortgage lending dropped more sharply, to 52% the 2007 figure in Share of bonded transactions in the affordable market also dropped: Effect of FSC end in 2008? Over-indebtedness? Or Basel III? A retreat to familiar territory? Are lenders missing opportunities?

10 Housing performance: Equity 10 Value of Equity All metros and within affordable areas, Affordable areas have higher and growing equity levels Fewer bonded properties Greater opportunity to leverage assets Percent Equity All metros and within affordable areas, All residential areas in the 9 metros: property vs. equity values Affordable areas equity values

11 Housing performance: area LTV 11 Area Loan to Value All metros and within affordable areas, All Metro residential areas Affordable areas have below-average loan to value rates (total loan size to total area value) Fewer bonded properties Opportunity for leveraging Affordable areas level of property indebtedness has remained stable Value of Outstanding Bonds All metros and within affordable areas, Affordable areas

12 Housing performance: Bonded transactions (all) 12 All Bonded Transactions (new & resale), by loan size All metros, by property price band, Bonded transactions over R bounced back readily after the market slump, whereas affordable market transactions have yet to pick up. In 2008, transactions under R reached a high of 32% of the market. Last year they were less than 25%, despite better property value appreciation than higherpriced properties. Impact of FSC??

13 Housing performance: Bonded transactions (new) 13 New Bonded Transactions, by loan size All metros, Yet, among new properties, the market share of transactions under R grew from 23% in 2007 to almost half of all new transactions in In 2009, new property transactions under R were a majority -53%- of all transactions. The affordable market has been a buffer in tight times.

14 Housing performance: Churn 14 Annual Percent Churn All metros and affordable areas, Churn the rate at which properties are transacted within areas over a year is lowest and most stable within affordable areas Churn rates in affordable areas are one-half to one-third upper market areas: Fewer properties for sale? Fewer places to go? Less access to credit? Less desire to move? Stronger community stability? More stability means greater market familiarity, greater commitment to protect asset, and for investors, greater ability to predict future market conditions

15 Housing performance: new registrations 15 Change in New Registrations All metros and affordable areas, Affordable areas Percentage increase of new registrations in affordable areas outpaced all metros every year except 2011, when all registrations dropped overall New registrations may also include existing properties (and metro admin efforts) All metros Nevertheless registering properties, especially in affordable areas, creates an instant asset - equity which can be leveraged or traded, expanding housing options

16 Lending Performance: Market size 16 Market Size, All Metro areas By band, number of loans, Market Size, All Metro Areas By band, value of loans,

17 Lending Performance: Market Share 17 Market Share, All Metro areas By lender, value of loans, Market Share, Affordable Areas By lender, value of loans,

18 Lending performance: Percent Bonded 18 Percent Bonded Properties, Nine metros and within affordable areas, The percent of bonded properties (new and existing properties) in affordable areas has risen comparably to the entire residential market in the 9 metros, by 13% and 14% respectively; Still, while almost 75% of all residential properties are bonded, only a third of affordable market properties are bonded, suggesting untapped equity in these markets.

19 19 Lending performance: NCR data Is mortgage lending being replaced by unsecured lending? Year-on-year to Q1-2013, mortgages between R150k-R350k dropped by 19.35%. Mortgages between R351k-R700k dropped by 9%

20 20 Lending performance: NCR data The shift has damaged the ability of the average South African to own a home. This entrenches an economic advantage for those who already own their homes, making it more difficult to transform the patterns of ownership in the economy. While there has been a boom in the size of the black middle class, the simultaneous shift in banking behaviour means this has not translated into a proportional greater ability for black consumers to buy property. Stuart Theobald, Business Day, 16 September 2013: Banks focus on unsecured lending crimps growth of home ownership. Are we seeing a vicious cycle play itself out : with insufficient houses to buy (lack of construction capital?), borrowers spend on consumables, indebting themselves over unproductive assets, reducing effective demand for housing while the housing supply/demand mismatch persists

21 21 What is Affordable? Current Method: By Price Properties or areas whose average price is less than R Reflected price affordable to household earning R per month, generally the eligibility cut off. Smaller metros have lower property values, appearing more affordable Could not take into consideration local income required to afford housing available at the local level Static and unresponsive to changing FSC parameters, property price appreciation, and income variation. New Method: By Income Properties or areas whose average house price is affordable to the average income. In May, StatsSA released census data at local (subplace) level - we could determine affordable price by local income Target property price = 25% of average household income, typical mortgage terms Affordability Ratio = Target property price/average sales price Many areas are no longer affordable relative to their resident populations

22 What is Affordable More accurate picture means more accurate market solutions 22 Suburbs Affordable By Price: Average price is below R Suburbs Affordable By Income: Average price affordable by average income Soweto Soweto Green dot is affordable suburb Size of dot is number of properties in that suburb

23 23 What is Affordable Suburbs Affordable By Price: Average price is below R Suburbs Affordable By Income: Average price affordable by average income Shoshanguve Shoshanguve Tshwane Tshwane Fewer areas are affordable (especially townships), but including local incomes better informs appropriate housing options.

24 What is Affordable Affordable Suburbs by Price and Income 24 Metros ranked by price and income affordability at the suburb level reveal some surprising results: On average, South African metro suburbs are one-third affordable by price, but only onefifth affordable by income; Market size does not necessarily improve affordability; Some larger urban areas may be more affordable because of better income opportunities. Affordability By Suburb Metro Total Suburbs Affordable by Price Affordable By Income Nelson Mandela Bay % 78 33% Ekurhuleni % % Ethekwini % % City of Tshwane % % Buffalo City % 35 17% Msunduzi % 16 16% City of Johannesburg % % City of Cape Town % % Mangaung % 25 11% average 33% 20% This is a problem. Need innovation in financing, construction, tenure

25 Thinking about opportunities What s the big picture? 25 Affordable market areas are more stable, they are active, and they are growing, providing a buffer to the more volatile high value market Affordable areas hold considerable equity. Supply (new & resale) is insufficient opportunity for growth Lenders persist in the high value market. Why? A function of housing supply? A function of construction capital? A function of credit indebtedness? A function of information and risk perceptions? Can clearly see the impact of the FSC before and after so what of FSC Phase 2? How does the unsecured debt picture feature here? Housing affordability is a function of personal situation Assets Income Debt Commitments A R house is not affordable just by definition the assessment is relative Information gaps: Informal settlements: value & opportunity Subsidised housing Rental: institutional & household DEBT

26 26 Thank you! Kecia Rust Adelaide Steedley