More gentrification, displacement in Bay Area forecast

Transcription

1 More gentrification, displacement in Bay Area forecast By Kathleen Maclay, Media Relations AUGUST 24, 2015 The San Francisco Bay Area s transformation into a sprawling, exclusive and high-income community with less and less room for its low-income residents is just beginning, according to UC Berkeley researchers who literally have it all mapped out. The interactive Urban Displacement Project map, released today by a Berkeley team, indicates the displacement crisis is not yet half over, as rising housing prices and pressure on low-income residents to relocate to the outer suburbs accelerate. The project, headed by UC Berkeley researcher Miriam Zukand city and regional planning professor Karen Chapple, is the product of nearly two years of community-engaged research looking at gentrification and displacement, and involving dozens of local nonprofit organizations and regional agencies. The project is funded by the Bay Area s Metropolitan Transportation San Rafael s Canal area comes under examination as gentrification and Commission and California s Air displacement pressures affect the neighborhood. (Images courtesy of the Urban Resources Board to determine the Displacement Project) effect of transit and other public investment on displacement, and to search for ways to ensure future housing affordability. Key research findings, which Zuk and Chapple say offers lessons for other regions across the country where housing prices are skyrocketing, include: In 2013, more than 53 percent of low-income households lived in neighborhoods at risk of or already experiencing displacement and gentrification pressures, comprising 48 percent of the Bay Area s census tracts.

2 Neighborhoods with rail stations, historic housing stock, an abundance of marketrate developments and rising housing prices are especially in danger of losing lowincome households. Despite continued pressures and much anxiety, many neighborhoods that expected to be at risk of displacement such as East Palo Alto, Marin City and San Francisco s Chinatown have been surprisingly stable, at least until 2013, the most recent year with available data. This is likely due to a combination of subsidized housing production, tenant protections, rent control and strong community organizing. What about my neighborhood? Using our online map allows residents, neighborhood groups and governments to assess where their neighborhoods or those next door are in terms of the risk and actual occurrence of gentrification and displacement, says Zuk. The modern look of new homes is becoming common fare in San Francisco s Mission District. The Urban Displacement Project zeroes in nine neighborhoods in six Bay Area counties that were selected to represent the region s diverse geographies and neighborhoods in different stages of displacement and gentrification: San Francisco s Chinatown, which has survived decades of housing pressures, managing to preserve affordable housing through strong community organizing and planning The Mission District (San Francisco), known locally as the epicenter of gentrification and displacement because much of its industrial land is turning high-end residential San Jose s Diridon transit hub (Santa Clara County), with its stops for Caltrain, Amtrak, VTA light rail and bus lines, as well as a planned stop for a BART extension and high-speed rail is a hotbed for pricey development

3 Many transportation improvements in the Bay Area are in the pipeline, and Berkeley researchers are looking at policies that enhance transit and housing options. first from Vietnam and now from Latin America Oakland s MacArthur BART (Alameda County), a scene of rapid demographic and physical change linked to a revitalized Temescal commercial district, proximity to affluent neighborhoods and transit access Redwood City (San Mateo County), where active redevelopment is paying little attention to affordable housing for its low-income workforce San Rafael s Canal neighborhood (Marin), an immigrant gateway for families Marin City (Marin), protected by a large public and subsidized housing stock but the focus of fear of gentrification due to proximity to high-income neighborhoods and limited land that can be developed East Palo Alto (San Mateo) risks losing its reputation as an island of affordability in a sea of wealth Monument Corridor (Contra Costa), an immigrant gateway in Concord, was hit hard by the recession and is primed for higher-income residents Early-warning tool The Urban Displacement Project map also serves as a regional early-warning system at the census tract level, with classifications ranging from not losing low-income housing to advanced gentrification and advanced exclusion of low-income housing. With the click of a mouse, map visitors can zoom in for micro and macro views of communities to learn the percentage of renters in an area, how many households are lowincome, the median household income and its changes in recent years, the housing stock age and other data. While neighborhoods such as San Francisco s Mission District are often targets of public outcry about gentrification and the negative influences of the tech industry, Zuk and Chapple find even affluent communities that have pockets of low-income housing are in jeopardy.

4 For example, some neighborhoods in the Peninsula and South Bay communities of San Mateo and Mountain View have lost nearly a quarter of their already small lowincome communities over the last decade. And east of the Oakland hills, the researchers say, Concord s Monument corridor is being primed for gentrification, putting an estimated 37,000 mostly low-income Concord s Monument area is primed for change, according to Berkeley researchers. residents, who are often undocumented and uncounted in official tallies, in jeopardy. The area s vacancy rate jumped from 3 to 9 percent between 2000 and 2013, and the researchers say landlords may prefer to leave units empty instead of paying maintenance costs or waiting for the market to rebound. Meanwhile, developers can buy in the area cheaply, rehabilitate units and still turn a profit. Regional can trump local Subsidized housing and tenant protections such as rent control and just-cause eviction ordinances are the most effective tools for stabilizing communities, say Zuk and Chapple, yet the regional nature of the housing and jobs markets has managed to render some local solutions ineffective. Even if San Francisco, Berkeley and East Palo Alto protect their renters, that won t ease displacement pressures on the communities next door, which are experiencing the same housing market dynamics, says Chapple. Oakland s MacArthur neighborhood has seen dramatic shifts in its composition over the last 30 years. In 1980, 14 percent of residents had a college degree, and in 2013 the number reached 38 percent, a trend the researchers say is due largely to newcomers moving in, drawn by lower rents and more public transportation options than elsewhere in the region. New strategies Given the extensive need for affordable housing, the researchers caution the public and decision-makers against thinking that the region can build its way out of the problem by only producing market rate units, recommending the development of new policies to preserve housing affordability and increase the number of affordable units.

5 Community activists in East Palo Alto have rallied on behalf of affordable housing. In East Palo Alto, a community known for its activism, city officials in 2014 eased restrictions on secondary dwelling units to try to address housing pressures. And all 21 jurisdictions within San Mateo County joined forces for a countywide housing plan update along with impact fees for new commercial and residential development to support affordable housing. Our research shows some new strategies that can help stabilize communities and keep them affordable, Zuk says, noting that the tools involve ways to produce and preserve subsidized units, and to promote community organizing. In addition to working with a range of community organizations, the researchers also based their findings on data from the U.S. Census, county tax assessors and real-estate transactions, as well as interviews and field observations. The researchers conducted their neighborhood case studies in collaboration with seven community-based organizations to ground the technical analysis in real-life experiences. Two technical advisory committees comprised of local and statewide stakeholders provided oversight. See maps, reports and blog posts on the Urban Displacement website. RELATED INFORMATION The future of displacement (Berkeley Blog post by Karen Chapple, Aug. 25, 2015) A UC Berkeley team at work on affordable housing.

6 A Map of Gentrification in the Bay Area By Dan Brekke AUGUST 27, 2015 Where are the Bay Area s gentrification hot spots? In which neighborhoods are low-income residents most at risk of being pushed out due to rising real estate prices? Which areas have become exclusive enclaves unattainable to most of us? UC Berkeley researchers assembled data on more than 2,000 census tracts in the region including everything from property prices and rents to density of low-income households to migration patterns to try to create a new portrait of gentrification and displacement dynamics. The result, released earlier this week under the auspices of UC Berkeley s Urban Displacement Project, is the interactive map above available with lots of supplementary data and case studies at the project s website. The team, led by Karen Chapple, a professor of city and regional planning, and Miriam Zuk, a postdoctoral researcher at Cal s Center for Community Innovation, wasn t focusing specifically on displacement and gentrification. Instead, they were trying to answer questions about the impact of policies meant to help attain state and regional goals for responding to climate change measures like encouraging in-fill development to help reduce sprawl and vehicle miles traveled. The takeaway is that those policies may spur gentrification and displacement if they are not managed carefully. Chapple and Zuk said the biggest surprises from the research included: Fifty-three percent of of all low-income households in the region live in neighborhoods at risk of, or already experiencing, displacement. The crisis is not half over meaning that rising rents and home prices, along with an influx of more affluent people, increase the pressure on low-income people to move to the region s outer suburbs. Displacement is occurring beyond neighborhoods that are clearly gentrifying something the researchers call an ongoing story of exclusion that s being experienced even in more affluent areas where property prices are rising. Between 2000 and 2013, the region lost 50 percent of the units defined as affordable for low-income households; at the same time, the number of low-income households regionwide increased by 10 percent. One of their main conclusions is that there is simply no way for the Bay Area to build its way out of the displacement problem. Instead, an approach that focuses both on increasing the supply of affordable homes, while adopting or strengthening policies to protect the existing supply of affordable housing, will be needed to slow displacement. The project s report also found that one of the key indicators for gentrification in a neighborhood is a spike in development of market-rate housing. That s become a key issue in San Francisco s Mission District, which was one of nine neighborhoods the project focused on in a series of case studies that accompany the displacement map.

7 We asked Chapple and Zuk their thoughts about a proposed moratorium on market-rate housing in the Mission: Could it be effective in halting the march of gentrification in the district? Their answer: It might be useful as a tactic in winning some sort of agreement among community groups, the city and developers to add more affordable housing to the mix proposed for the area.

8 UC Berkeley Researchers Predict Bay Area Gentrification Will 'Accelerate' By Tamara Palmer Published at 12:49 PM PDT on Aug 25, 2015 UCB Urban Displacement Project A study conducted by UC Berkeley researchers at the Urban Displacement Project predicts that gentrification and displacement will continue to accelerate in both low and high income Bay Area neighborhoods. The organization's new Urban Displacement Map shows that many are in the South Bay. Willow Glen Hostage Suspect Surrenders: SJPD Berkeley News noted that development in places like Redwood City and the area surrounding San Jose's Diridon Station is largely high-end, which will leave little in the way of affordable housing for low income workers in the areas. The publication quoted the study's concern for East Palo Alto moving away from being "an island of affordability in a sea of wealth." Mountain Lion Suspected of Sneaking Into LA Zoo, Killing Koala

9 Among the study's key findings, the number of census tracts at risk of displacement are 123 percent higher than the numbers of census tracts already experiencing displacement, "indicating that the transformation of the Bay Area will continue to accelerate."

10 Gentrification is heading toward these low-income Bay Area neighborhoods Cory Weinberg ReporterSan Francisco Business Times Aug 26, 2015, 3:27pm PDT Gentrification tends to focus on neighborhoods like San Francisco's Mission District or West Oakland. But more than half of the low-income households in the Bay Area live in neighborhoods that have already started to gentrify or are on the verge of gentrification, according to a University of California, Berkeley study published this week. Some of the most populated areas at risk are outside downtowns and less likely to get media attention, such as San Francisco's Ingleside neighborhood or parts of unincorporated Alameda County. The "urban displacement" study includes a cool interactive map organized by U.S. Census tracts for your perusal. I thought it'd be helpful to pull out some of the most-populous census tracts that are

11 heavily low-income and were deemed "at risk of gentrification or displacement" by the researchers. Check out the slideshow to see which neighborhoods are changing. Eighteen percent of all census tracts in the region are low-income and at risk of displacement and gentrification, according to the study. Ten percent like tracts in the Mission, South of Market, West Berkeley and Oakland's Highland Park are already undergoing "advanced gentrification and displacement." How did researchers determine this? Using funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, they analyzed 50 variables from 1990, 2000, and 2013 from various datasets including increase in home value, construction of new market-rate units, growth in median household income, and growth in percentage of residents with a college degree. The full methodology is here. "Low-income" census tracts had a greater share of low-income households than the Bay Area median in 2013 (39 percent).