Metro Halifax Housing Market Update

Transcription

1 Metro Halifax Housing Market Update Guillaume Neault, Senior Market Analyst, CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION HOUSING OUTLOOK CONFERENCE - HALIFAX Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 Three key demand factors Population Employment Wages CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 2

3 Starting with people CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 3

4 Population by Age Group, Halifax 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, years years years years 55+ years Source: Statistics Canada Census Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 4

5 Total Migration, Halifax, ,000 60,000 40,000 Total In 78,967 Net +16,749 20, ,000-40,000-60,000 Total Out 62,218-80,000 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 5

6 Net Migration by Age Group, Halifax 2, ,500 1, Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 6

7 Households by Type, by Census, Halifax 60,000 50, ,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Couples Couples with Children Single Person Source: Statistics Canada, Census CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 7

8 Moving on to... CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 8

9 200 Thousands Average Full-Time Employment, Halifax 45 Thousands Average Part-Time Employment, Halifax Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 9

10 Halifax Employment Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas Transportation and Warehousing Other Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Information, Culture and Recreation Manufacturing Agriculture Utilities Trade Construction Management, Admin and Other Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Public Administration Educational Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 10

11 The third key factor... CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 11

12 Average Earnings Growth vs. Inflation, Halifax 7% 6% Earnings CPI 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% (YTD) Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 12

13 Three key demand factors Immigration remains stable Continues to be primary source of population growth Aging population base Contributing to shifting housing demand Little to modest employment and real wage growth Contributing to stable housing demand CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 13

14 MLS Market Overview MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 14

15 MLS Sales 12 Month Moving Average January 2007 to July 2013, Halifax Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 15

16 Annual MLS Sales, Halifax 8,000 7,000 Avg. ~6,205 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 6,376 6,505 6,233 6,938 6,208 5,860 5,736 5,939 6,046 5,350 5,800 2,000 1,000 - Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS ; Forecast: CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 16

17 Year-to-date MLS Sales, By Submarket, Halifax 1,200 1, Halifax City Dartmouth City Bedford- Hammonds Plains Sackville Halifax County Southwest Halifax County East Outside Halifax- Dartmouth Board Fall River- Beaver Bank Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 17

18 Average MLS Price Growth, Halifax 10% 9% 6.1% average annual growth Growth expected to slow 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 9.0% 7.7% 8.1% 7.2% 6.6% 6.9% 5.9% YTD - $278,317 Up from $161,663 in % 2% 1% 0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.7% 1.5% 2.2% Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS ; Forecast: CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 18

19 Avg. MLS Price at $278,000 (YTD) Sackville -1.8% / $219,000 Fall River- Beaverbank +3.6% / $301,000 Bedford- Hammonds Plains +0.3% / $352,000 Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association Halifax +5.0% / $341,000 Southwest +1.6% / $265,000 Dartmouth +1.2% / $251,000 Dartmouth East 1% / $210,000 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 19

20 Year-to-date MLS Sales, By Price Range, Halifax $500, $400,000 - $499,999 $300,000 - $399, $200,000 - $299,999 $0 - $199,999 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 20

21 New Homes Market Overview CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 21

22 Single-Detached Housing Starts, Halifax 1,600 1,400 1,200 Avg. ~1,146 1, ,483 1, ,216 1,056 1,207 1, , Source and Forecast: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 22

23 Year-to-date Single-Detached Starts by Submarket Halifax, 2013/2012 Sackville Bedford-Hammonds Plains Fall River - Beaverbank Halifax County Southwest Halifax City Halifax County East Dartmouth City Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 23

24 New Single Prices at $412,000 (YTD) Sackville +16% / $480,000 Fall River- Beaverbank 0% / $363,000 Bedford- Hammonds Plains -2% / $548,000 Halifax +5% / $518,000 Dartmouth -8% /$319,000 Southwest -8% / $428,000 Dartmouth East -2% / $302,000 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 24

25 Population density: Sharp increase Increase Slight increase Decline Sharp decline Source: Statistics Canada CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 25

26 Rental Market Overview CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 26

27 Rental Apartment Starts and Completions, Halifax 1,800 1,600 Rental Starts Rental Completions 1,400 1,200 Averages 1, (f) 2014(f) Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 27

28 3,784 rental apartment starts Bedford & Sackville 1,232 Dartmouth 905 Halifax Mainland 1,053 Halifax Peninsula 587 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 28

29 Another 2,500 expected in Bedford & Sackville Dartmouth Halifax Mainland Halifax Peninsula Source and Forecast: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 29

30 Renter Households by Age, Halifax 30% 25% 26.3% 26.4% 20% 18.0% 15% 13.8% 15.4% 10% 5% 0% years years years years 55+ years Source: Statistics Canada Census Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 30

31 Condo Market Overview CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 31

32 Annual Apartment Construction, Halifax Condo Apartment Starts Rental Apartment Starts 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,600 1,400 1,200 1, Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 32

33 Cost of Owning vs. Renting in Halifax Peninsula $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Avg 2-Bed Apt Rent Avg Condo Carrying Costs Source: CMHC, Bank of Canada, Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 33

34 Year-to-date MLS Condo Sales, Halifax 600 YTD Price growth of 4% in $259, Price growth of 5% in 2012 $249, Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 34

35 Forecast Immigration remains key to growth Slow economic and employment growth Apartment construction to remain strong Vacancy rate to rise Single family starts and sales slow Price growth to slow CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 35

36 Thank You Questions? CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 36

37 Contact Information Guillaume Neault Senior Market Analyst CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 37