Virginia HOME SALES REPORT NOVEMBER 2017

Transcription

1 Virginia HOME SALES REPORT NOVEMBER 2017 Published by the Virginia REALTORS, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.

2 The Virginia REALTORS association publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia REALTORS. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia REALTORS. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS (NVAR). Please take this into consideration when referencing regions. Central Eastern Hampton Roads Northern Southside Southwest Valley West Central Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem Data recorded November 15,

3 November Market Summary The performance of the November residential real estate market supports a year of sustained strength. Year-to-date volume (the sum of all sales) through November 2017 has risen 8.8 percent over the same period in 2016, from $ billion to $ billion. November 2017 volume (the sum of all transactions) was $3.026 billion, rising 8.7 percent from last November s volume ($2.783 billion). Typical of industry seasonality, volume fell from the prior month by 6.1 percent (from $3.223 billion). Also in accordance with historical trends, the number of transactions in November dropped month-over-month by 8.3 percent (from 9,797 to 8,982). Year-over-year, though, sales in November rose 3.9 percent from their 2016 benchmark (8,648). Statewide median sales price for November 2017 was $270,000, an increase of 2 percent relative to last November ($264,700). Illustrating the continued trend of high demand, median price changed only marginally from October to November (from $269,900). In addition to elevated median price, a year-over-year decline in average days on the illustrates continued buyer motivation. The average number of days on the market declined 12.7 percent year-over year, from 71 to 62 days. The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate for November increased to 3.92 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank announced a rate hike on December 13, projecting three more increases over the course of Despite rate increases, financing remains historically affordable and, coupled with high consumer confidence, continues to encourage market entry. Data recorded November 15,

4 Sales Pace - Monthly 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 9,031 8,648 9,131 9,982 10,594 12,675 14,113 11,672 11,927 9,983 9,797 8,982 8,000 6,515 6,739 6,000 4, % 2,000 0 Year-over-year, the number of transactions in November rose by 3.9 percent (from 8,648 in 2016 to 8,982 in 2017). Relative to the prior month, November sales fell by 8.3 percent, typical of industry seasonality and reflecting that the Thanksgiving holiday effectually reduces the number of days to transact during the month. Year-to-date sales (January through November) have risen 4.9 percent, from 107,750 in 2016 to 112,979 in November Benchmarks - Sales Pace 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-8,648 8,982 6,669 7, % November sales pace has risen significantly over time, up 34.7 percent relative to the 2014 benchmark. The most significant jump occurred between 2015 and Data recorded November 15,

5 $310,000 Median Sales Price $300,000 $290,000 $280,000 $270,000 $260,000 $250,000 $264,700 $269,900 $270,000 $240,000 $230,000 2 % Median price rose from November 2016 by 2 percent, from $264,700 to $270,000. Price remained almost static from the prior month ($269,900 in October). The sustained elevation in price illustrates that buyer interest remains high, as demand continues to support premiums. Below, historical benchmarks indicate continued long-term price escalation. $275,000 $270,000 $265,000 $260,000 November Benchmarks - Median Price $264,700 $270,000 $255,000 $250,000 $250,000 $252,000 8 % $245,000 $240, Median price for November has risen 8 percent from its 2014 benchmark, averaging an increase of 2.6 percent each year for the last three years. As with pace (noted on page 3), the jump between 2015 and 2016 was particularly strong. Data recorded November 15,

6 Residential Sales Volume - Monthly Billions $2.907 $2.783 $3.026 $2.059 $2.137 $3.231 $3.598 $4.466 $5.119 $4.166 $4.055 $3.268 $3.223 $ % 0.0 Sales volume (the total dollar value of all sales for a given period) totaled $3.026 billion for November 2017, an increase of 8.7 percent from the preceding November ($2.783 billion). As a multiplier of price and number of transactions, November volume was boosted by increases in both median price and pace. In keeping with historical trends, month-over-month volume fell by 6.1 percent (from $3.223 billion) November Benchmarks - Sales Volume $2.783 $3.026 Billions $2.078 $ Data recorded November 15,

7 Average Days on Market s % 10 0 The chart above illustrates the average number of days on the market for each month. Shorter transaction time suggests strong buyer motivation. Relative to last year, November 2017 average time from list to close decreased by a notable 12.7 percent (from 71 to 62 days). Month-to-month, average days on the market increased by only 2 days, or 3.3 percent. In other years, increases have been steeper at the end of the year, as demand tapers and properties wait on the market longer. This year s metrics are another indicator of sustained high demand November Benchmarks - Days on Market s An inverse of the pace and volume trends, average days on the market have declined progressively year-over-year. The November 2017 average (62 days) is 22.5 percent shorter than the average length of time a property sat on the market before closing in November 2014 (80 days). Data recorded November 15,

8 Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% The state will report Virginia s unemployment rate for November 2017 on December 22. Virginia unemployment continues to track well below the national average. Low unemployment is correlated with bolstered consumer confidence and encouragement for buyers to enter the market. 4.50% Average 30 -Year Mortgage Interest Rate Source: FreddieMac 4.00% 3.77% 4.20% 4.15% 4.17% 4.20% 4.05% 4.01% 3.90% 3.97% 3.88% 3.81% 3.90% 3.92% 3.50% 3.46% 3.47% 3.00% Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate for November 2017 rose to 3.92 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank announced a rate hike on December 13. There are three increases anticipated over the course of Despite increases, rates remain enticing to buyers. Data recorded November 15,

9 The Virginia REALTORS association is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 33,000 REALTORS engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. The Virginia REALTORS association serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. NOTE: The term REALTOR is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS and subscribes to its strict code of ethics. All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Jenny Wortham Palmer Virginia REALTORS jpalmer@virginiarealtors.org The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Data recorded November 15,