TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q Information embargoed until Wednesday 10th January 2017 at 00:01

Transcription

1 TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Q4 217 Information embargoed until Wednesday 1th January 217 at :1

2 Welcome to the latest edition of the TwentyCi National Property & Homemover Report, a comprehensive review of the UK property market throughout 217. As a life event data company, TwentyCi has exclusive access to more than 29 billion qualified data points across the whole of the property sector for both property purchases and rental. This data enables us to partner with leading brands across many different sectors including property, furniture, DIY, travel, automotive, telecoms and utilities to help them target homemovers at the time they are most likely to need the products in their category. Unlike other housing reports, which cover only a sub-section of the market or are based on sentiment, TwentyCi s report is based on factual data covering 99.6% of both the property sales and rental markets. In addition to tracking sales momentum, this state of the nation report provides unique insight into the people behind the numbers, creating a picture of the demographic, regional and socio-economic factors impacting the housing market. Factual data (not modelled or sentiment-based) Full market coverage Demographic overlay Property sales data Property rental data Real-time data Key take-outs for sees a return to stability. Exchanges are up 1% year-on-year across the UK and the average house price has increased by 3.3% to 298k, with most exchanges taking place within the 1-2k bracket. Wales has a buoyant housing market showing an 11% increase in exchanges year-on-year. Renting is on the rise. Big cities such as Manchester and Newcastle now show that the rental market has grown to be equal to, or bigger, than the sales market, but Scottish cities are suffering from a lack of available rental stock. A reduction in available London rental property is showing, yet has failed to translate into an increase in people buying homes. The changing face of the housing market. The Silver Economy dominates the housing market while Millennials are struggling to get on the housing ladder and are opting to rent. All data is based on Q4 217 versus Q4 216 year-on-year comparisons unless otherwise stated. Analysis of property buyers is based on demographic overlay data versus individual property-based data triggers.

3 Overview A return to a stable housing market By the end of 217, the political and economic turbulence of the previous year is beginning to settle and we are seeing the return of a more stable UK housing market. Exchanges are up 1% and house prices are up by 3.3% compared to the previous year. London continues to remain in its own unique property bubble, showing a marked disparity from the rest of the UK in terms of both sales (exchanges are down 1% and house prices are down 5% year-on-year) and rentals. The changing face of the housing market 217 saw the Silver Economy making a huge contribution to the housing market. With 31% more exchanges yearon-year within this lifestage group, the Silver Economy is the fastest growing market segment. Conversely, Millennials are finding it difficult to get on the housing ladder (or opting to rent as a lifestyle choice) with 17% fewer exchanges occurring in 217 amongst year olds. Colin Bradshaw, Chief Customer Officer at TwentyCi, said: After the turbulence that followed the Brexit vote in 216, we re seeing a much calmer landscape for the UK housing market. We are not seeing any seismic shifts year-on-year and the huge spikes in house prices that we ve seen in recent years appear to have stabilised. The good news is that we re seeing a marked increase in people at every stage of the homemover process (from the initial stages of planning, right through to completion) demonstrating positive movement year-onyear despite the slow economy. Renting is on the rise The rental market is growing, with the number of properties for rent versus for sale increasing in all of the top ten cities except Glasgow. Newcastle and Manchester have seen the rental market rise to equal, or exceed, the sales market, with rental s share of the property market in these cities up 23% and 1% respectively on this time last year. Conversely, inner London has seen fewer rentals compared to all listings available, with rental s market share down 4% on the same period last year. All areas of London have seen the rental market s share of the property market fall year-on-year, which is surprising for an international city that relies on a higher volume of rentals than sales. However, the reduction in rental properties available has not translated into an increase in people buying homes in the Capital. Bradshaw said: The Silver Economy continues to be one of the biggest drivers of the UK housing market, with the over 65 cohort continuing to invest in bricks and mortar as their nest egg. Whether they re dipping into their pension pot to reinvest in property, taking advantage of Silver mortgages, or releasing equity in their house, older consumers are the group with the highest disposable income and this is translating into an increase in property purchases. Meanwhile, Millennials are finding it more difficult to get on the property ladder and are also enjoying the freedom that renting offers from a lifestyle perspective, so we are seeing a notable decline in years old buyers. Bradshaw said: It s interesting to see the shifting landscape of big cities such as Manchester and Newcastle upon Tyne, which had as many, if not more properties available for rent than for sale this quarter. What s surprising is that London, which has always been the rental capital of the UK, is now suffering from a huge lack of available properties for rent, likely the result of the government s new buy-to-let policies. Rather than benefiting tenants, it seems that these policies may actually have resulted in offering them less choice.

4 UK National Trends At the end of 217, the property market is now much more stable and we re no longer seeing the seismic shifts that were apparent in 216. Exchanges are up 1% year-on-year and average house prices have increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 298k. All of UK UK without London /217 11/217 12/217 1/217 11/217 12/217 Q k Exchanged 54k Fallen through 224k Withdrawn 243k SSTC Exchanged properties Fallen through properties Withdrawn properties SSTC properties Average House Price House prices have risen 3.3% year-on-year K 361K 35K 293K 298K 357K The steady increase in house prices reflects the return to a more stable landscape. The volume of new property listings on the market is up 2.2% this quarter compared to the same period last year, with a slight dip in price from 361k compared to 357k. However the price of new instructions is on the increase, up 2.1% this quarter. Q4 216 Q3 217 Exchanges New Instructions Q4 217

5 217 sees an increase in the number of people on the homemover cycle Homemover Segments TwentyCi s data tracks homemovers as they make their way through the property buying (or rental) process. Known as the Homemover Wave, it can last many months and is broken down into five specific stages triggered by activity such as online property searches, surveys and EPC reports. 217 has seen an increase in the overall number of people across all stages of the homemover cycle compared to the same period last year, which is likely to be due to a slight decline in activity in 216 during the months following Brexit. Interestingly, we are seeing the steepest increases in the segments that represent key decisions points in the Homemover Wave, such as exchanging and completing. Move Nest Builders, people who have recently moved, are up 23% year-on-year. This means that, despite the slowing economy, there is good news for retailers and brands in key sectors such as DIY, home entertainment and furniture as Move Nest Builders have a high propensity to spend money personalising their home once they have moved in. The Mover segment, people who are currently moving and will soon transition into Move Nest Builders, shows the highest increase year-on-year up by more than a quarter (27%). Again, this is a positive story for brands and retailers, who can tap into this captive audience at the time they are most likely to be in the market for their product of service. Homemover Cycle Segments Q4 217 Number of households 254,93 +9% 25, % 271,79 +27% 262,36 +23% 272,414 +4% Move Maker First listing your house as For Sale Move Planner Making an offer on your new home Mover Approaching the time of move Move Nest Builder Just moved Home Maker Recently moved

6 UK Regional Trends Number of Exchanged Properties by Region UK Regions Q4 217 Q4 216 Q3 217 Difference Difference in in last Year last Quarter East Midlands 17,394 16,298 17,45 7% s % East of England 18,871 18,437 22,144 2% s -15% London (M25) 29,866 3,62 33,252-2% t -1% North East 9,156 9,59 9,233-4% t -1% North West 28,722 27,71 29,934 4% s -4% Scotland 14,217 14,199 14,83 % n -4% South East 4,541 41,78 47,15-3% t -14% South West 27,276 26,786 28,827 2% s -5% Wales 13,215 11,88 12,626 11% s 5% West Midlands 21,812 22,37 23,27-2% t -6% Yorkshire & the Humber 2,95 2,81 21,999 4% s -5% Wales is the only region to have experienced an increase in property exchanges this quarter (+5%) and has seen the greatest year-on-year increase of anywhere in the UK, up by 11% compared to the same period last year. s = up n = no movement t= down

7 Average Asking Price Top 1 Cities UK-wide + London Glasgow 158,371 4% Edinburgh Newcastle 229,878 upon Tyne 8% 172,926 3% Sheffield 173,94 1% Outside of London, Bristol and Birmingham achieved the highest average asking price this quarter. Birmingham also saw the greatest increase in asking prices yearon-year along with Edinburgh, both up 8%, followed closely by Manchester, up 6%. Cardiff 191,275 5% Manchester 22,334 6% Nottingham 199,411 3% Leicester 239,511 5% Birmingham 24,65 8% Bristol 38,216 2% London 812,93-5% Year-on-year figures Sales vs Rent Top 1 cities UK-wide RENTS SALES National Sales vs Rent Q % 58% 74% 49% 5% 66% 68% 79% 57% 59% Birmingham Sheffield Glasgow Newcastle Manchester Nottingham Cardiff Edinburgh Leicester Bristol 59% 51% 5% 44% 43% 42% 42% 42% 26% 21% Throughout 217 we have seen an increase in the number of properties for rent versus for sale in all of the top ten cities except Glasgow which was down 2%, possibly due to a lack of available rental property. In Newcastle, the ratio of rent/sales was 51:49 in Q4, a 23% increase in rental s market share compared with the same time last year. Manchester has also seen a significant rise in the ratio of sales to rent at 5:5 in Q4, showing an 1% increase in rental s market share compared to last year.

8 London Trends 2 15 London London has seen a 2% decline in exchanges year-on-year compared with a 1% increase nationwide. Average house prices in the Capital are down 5% compared to a 3.3% increase nationwide. 1 5 Exchanged properties Fallen through properties Withdrawn properties SSTC properties 1/217 11/217 12/217 West 1,21,437-2% North West 1,58,186 % West Central 1,72,584-8% South West 1,3,174-3% North 712,88-13% East 514,495 % East Central 923,789-7% South East 537,962 3% Within London, West London achieved the highest average asking price this quarter, although prices in that area were still down 2% year-on-year. North London has suffered the greatest decline in house prices, down 13% year-on-year, while South East London is the only area to see prices rise, up 3% year-onyear. Sales vs Rent London London Sales vs Rent Q4 217 RENTS SALES 4% 36% 42% 39% 48% 41% 36% 32% 41% London E London EC London N London NW London SE London SW London W London WC Inner London Areas 6% 64% 58% 61% 52% 59% 64% 68% 59% Unlike the UK s other major cities, inner London has seen rental s share of the overall property market fall down 5% last quarter and down 4% compared to the same period last year. East Central and West Central London have been affected the most, with rental s share falling 14% and 1% respectively year-on-year. All areas of London have seen a reduction in the percentage of rentals listed year-on-year, surprising for an international city that relies on a higher volume of rentals than sales.

9 Price Bands, Income Bands and Property Type Household Income Band There have been more properties exchanged (as a proportion of all exchanges) by people with a household income of 15k- 2k than any other income bracket, up 12% when comparing Q4 217 to Q There are fewer exchanges occurring for more affluent households, with the volume of exchanges for those earning 15k+ down by 18% year-on-year. Number of Exchanged Properties by Income Band Q4 217 NUMBER OF EXCHANGES % 23K 12% 14K 3% 39K 1% 1% 41K 42K % 27K % Difference vs Q % 17K % 25K -6% 12K -18% 4K K -149,999 7K - 99,999 6K - 69,999 5K - 59,999 4K - 49,999 3K -39,999 2K - 29,999 15K - 19,999 < 15K Property Price Band and Property Types It is the most expensive properties ( 5m+) that have suffered the most in the last year with a 22% decline on exchanges year-on-year. However there has been a 1% increase in the number of exchanges of properties priced at 5k- 75k year-on-year, and the midsection of households, priced between 2k and 1m, have all increased in the last year. Number of Exchanged Properties by Price Band Q4 217 Property Types There have been drastic movements in the type of properties exchanging this year. Flats have seen 18% fewer exchanges year-on-year, whereas semi-detached houses have seen a 26% increase in exchanges in Q4 compared to the same period last year. Possible reasons for this are the yearon-year market downturn of more than 13% in lower value properties between - 15k, likely including more flats given their lower comparative cost to other property types. It is also the case that London performed poorly in Q4 217, which potentially has an impact due to more flats making up the London property market. Number of Exchanged Properties by Property Type Q4 217 NUMBER OF EXCHANGES % 43K -7% 28K 8% 14K 1K K - 1 < 5K % Difference vs Q % 4K 5% 8% 28K 4% 28K 24K 7% 1% 15k 14K 5K K - 5 3K K - 3 2K K - 2 7% -4% 3k 5k 1m - 2m 75K - 1m 1% -24% m + 2m - 5m NUMBER OF EXCHANGES % 4K % Difference vs Q % 61K 8% 48K -35% 25K 5% 4K Q % 64K 3K Flat Cottage Bungalow Semi Detached Detached Terraced

10 Bricks and Mortar vs Online Online-only estate agents market share has increased by 13% in the last quarter of 217, but still makes up just 6% of the overall market 25 No of Exchanges ,31 5 High Street Agents 14,674 Online TwentyCi TwentyCi is a life event data company that provides intelligence into the events in consumer lives which act as purchase triggers, such as moving home, having a baby, buying a car or retiring. TwentyCi has been managing data for major advertisers like JH Heinz, ATS Euromaster and many leading estate agents for over 15 years. TwentyCi holds the UK s biggest and richest resource of factual life event data including the largest, most comprehensive source of homemover data compiled from more than 29 billion qualified data points. It works with advertisers and their agencies to create contextually targeted marketing programmes that cut through by reaching consumers at the exact moment that they need a company s product or service, through the best media channel for that individual. For more information visit

11 To find out more call or enquiries@twentyci.co.uk TwentyCi