2014 Property Tax Base Projections
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1 2014 Property Tax Base Projections
2 SALES OCTOBER 1, SEPTEMBER 30, Ratios/Change Rev Dates Change based on: Preliminary as of 11/7/ % RESIDENTIAL RATIOS RESIDENTIAL CHANGES Addison Township % Bloomfield Township % Brandon Township % Commerce Township % Groveland Township % Highland Township % Holly Township % Independence Township % Lyon Township % Milford Township % Novi Township % Oakland Township % Orion Township % Oxford Township % Rose Township % Royal Oak Township % Southfield Township % Springfield Township % Waterford Township % West Bloomfield Township % White Lake Township % Auburn Hills % Berkley % Birmingham % Bloomfield Hills % Clarkston % Clawson % Farmington % Farmington Hills % Fenton % Ferndale % Hazel Park % Huntington Woods % Keego Harbor % Lake Angelus % Lathrup Village % Madison Heights % Northville % Novi City % Oak Park % Orchard Lake % Pleasant Ridge % Pontiac % Rochester % Rochester Hills % Royal Oak City % Southfield City % South Lyon % Sylvan Lake % Troy % Walled Lake % Wixom % Average 8.36% Average 2014 Residential Value Change. 2
3 Commercial Industrial COMMERCIAL CHANGE INDUSTRIAL CHANGE Auburn Hills 0.00% -2.32% Berkley 0.04% 0.10% Birmingham 0.71% 0.00% Bloomfield Hills 0.40% Clarkston 0.51% Clawson -0.56% 0.02% Farmington 0.83% 0.24% Farmington Hills -3.08% -1.07% Fenton Ferndale 0.63% -0.18% Hazel Park -0.84% -0.80% Huntington Woods 0.32% Keego Harbor -0.44% Lake Angelus -0.08% Lathrup Village -4.09% Madison Heights -0.86% 1.84% Northville -0.14% -0.12% Novi City 2.24% -1.13% Oak Park -1.76% -1.84% Orchard Lake 0.26% -0.28% Pleasant Ridge 0.00% #DIV/0! Pontiac -4.69% -5.56% Rochester 1.32% 0.85% Rochester Hills 0.89% 0.91% Royal Oak City -0.42% 0.14% Southfield City -1.50% -1.25% South Lyon -0.40% -0.32% Sylvan Lake 2.09% 1.76% Troy -1.09% -1.97% Walled Lake -0.34% -0.26% Wixom 0.28% 0.93% AVERAGE COMMERCIAL -0.38% INDUSTRIAL -0.65% 3
4 March BOR Petitions ~ ~----~----~----~----~
5 10,000 9,000 OAKLAND COUNTY SHERIFF DEEDS: FORECLOSURES 9,242 9,290 8,486 8,000 7,000 7,643 7,371 6,000 5,000 4,855 5,108 4,000 3,000 2,623 2,650 2,000 1,755 2,024 2,168 1, , *2013 Totals estimated by using data available up to Sheriff Deed totals retrieved from the Oakland County Register of Deeds office. 5
6 SHERIFF'S DEEDS YTD 6
7 % % 176 9% 92 5% YTD 7
8 BANK SALES YTD 8
9 $4,500 SEV & TAXABLE VALUES $4,000 $3,500 $3,582 $3,332 Millions $3,000 $2,500 $2,901 $3,099 $2,920 $3,043 $2,000 $2,280 SEV TAXABLE $1,500 $1,000 9
10 ASSESSED AND TAXABLE VALUE PROJECTION FOR 2014 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES ,273 PARCELS ACTUAL NEW/ADDNS LOSS/LOSSES ESTIMATED ADJ ONLY SEV $1,982,518,310 $46,214,360 $3,474,100 $2,217,495,900 $2,171,281,540 TAXABLE $1,892,836,510 $37,939,870 $446,593 $1,978,436,170 $1,940,496,300 % CHANGE TO ASSESSED 11.85% 8.85% % CHANGE TO TAXABLE 4.52% 2.48% % OF PARCELS WHERE SEV = TAXABLE 14.65% % OF VALUE WHERE SEV = TAXABLE 89.22% COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES ,077 PARCELS ACTUAL NEW/ADDNS LOSS/LOSSES ESTIMATED ADJ ONLY SEV $893,516,550 $16,495,700 $7,205,500 $920,061,050 $903,565,350 TAXABLE $855,546,320 $10,893,500 $1,683,254 $862,312,780 $851,419,280 % CHANGE TO ASSESSED 2.97% 1.91% % CHANGE TO TAXABLE 0.79% -0.29% % OF PARCELS WHERE SEV = TAXABLE 44.57% % OF VALUE WHERE SEV = TAXABLE 93.72% PERSONAL PROPERTY - ESTIMATED PARCELS ACTUAL NEW/ADDNS LOSS/LOSSES ESTIMATED ADJ ONLY SEV & TAXABLE $223,698,750 $32,930,800 $40,527,500 $202,000,000 -$169,069,200 ALL PROPERTIES ,003 PARCELS POST MBOR NEW/ADDNS LOSS/LOSSES ESTIMATED ADJ ONLY SEV $3,099,733,610 $95,640,860 $51,207,100 $3,339,556,950 $2,905,777,690 TAXABLE $2,972,081,580 $81,764,170 $42,657,347 $3,042,748,950 $2,622,846,380 % CHANGE TO ASSESSED 7.74% 6.02% % CHANGE TO TAXABLE 2.38% 1.07% % OF PARCELS WHERE SEV = TAXABLE 19.28% % OF VALUE WHERE SEV = TAXABLE 91.11% 10
11 ADDITIONS FROM NEW CONSTRUCTION $180 $160 $140 RESIDENTIAL COMM & IND COMBINED $120 Millions $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ YTD 11
12 VALUE CHANGE % 5.00% 7.49% 8.56% 2.54% 5.54% 0.90% SEV TAXABLE 3.18% 1.77% 7.74% 2.38% 6.12% 3.18% 4.54% 2.88% 4.73% 3.17% 0.00% -5.00% % -3.48% -0.77% -1.94% -1.99% % % % -9.86% -7.75% -7.02% CHANGE IS FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR 12
13 15.00% 10.00% TAXABLE VALUE CHANGE BY CLASS CHANGE IS FROM PREVIOUS YEAR 5.00% 0.00% % % % RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL PERSONAL % 13
14 2014 TAXABLE VALUE (EST) RESIDENTIAL $1,978,436, % COMMERCIAL $846,638, % PERSONAL $202,000, % INDUSTRIAL $39,283, % 14
15 VALUE CHANGE Novi v Oakland County 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% 0.90% 0.04% 3.18% 1.77% 1.16% 0.00% -1.76% -3.67% -3.48% -0.77% -3.60% -1.94% -1.99% -3.08% -3.08% 7.74% 2.38% 6.00% 2.00% 6.12% 3.18% 6.00% 2.00% 4.54% 2.88% 6.00% 2.00% % % -8.90% % -9.86% % % -7.75% -7.02% -9.16% -7.78% NOVI SEV COUNTY SEV NOVI TAXABLE COUNTY TAXABLE % 15
16 PERSONAL PROPERTY CHANGES 2014 and
17 PERSONAL PROPERTY TAX PA OF No Change to the Personal Property Tax You Are Here Legislation Tie Bar Election in Aug Eliminating parcels <$80k TCV August 2014 Election To approve the Elimination of Personal Property tax Courtesy of Oakland County Equalization Deadline to Prepare 2014 Assessment Roll July Tax Bills 17
18 2013 PERSONAL PROPERTY TAXABLE VALUE COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL UTILITY TOTAL NOVI 1, ,881, ,861, ,793,820 1, ,537,210 SOUTH LYON 7 101, ,440, ,541,540 WALLED LAKE ,490, ,999, ,022, ,512,470 NORTHVILLE 46 2,220, , ,300, ,107,530 2, ,694, ,446, ,557,650 2, ,698,750 PROJECTED 2014 P/P TAXABLE VALUE UNDER $40,000 COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL UTILITY TOTAL NOVI 1,384 $16,739, $177,550 0 $0 1,394 $16,917,510 SOUTH LYON 7 $101,440 0 $0 0 $0 7 $101,440 WALLED LAKE 123 $1,984,670 0 $0 0 $0 123 $1,984,670 NORTHVILLE 33 $438,960 0 $0 0 $0 33 $438,960 1,547 $19,265, $177,550 0 $0 1,557 $19,442,580 REMAINING 2014 PERSONAL PROPERTY TAXABLE VALUE* COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL UTILITY TOTAL NOVI 520 $122,142, $11,683,850 5 $32,793, $166,619,700 SOUTH LYON 0 $0 0 $0 2 $1,440,100 2 $1,440,100 WALLED LAKE 69 $18,505,420 5 $4,999,450 4 $6,022, $29,527,800 NORTHVILLE 13 $1,781,650 2 $586,120 3 $4,300, $6,668, $142,429, $17,269, $44,557, $204,256,170 * DOES NOT INCLUDE DEPRECIATION, OR NORMAL LOSSES AND ADDITIONS FOR REMAINING PROPERTIES 18
19 2014 UNDER $40,000 - THE AFFECT % of P/P parcels removed but Only 8.7% of P/P roll lost Estimated loss of $200,000 in Revenue from 2013 due to under $40,000 removals 19
20 HEADLEE ROLLBACK CALCULATION Formula: Prior Year TV Current Year TV Minus Losses Minus Additions X IRM = Millage Reduction Factor (MRF) As mentioned in slide number 6, the current IRM estimate is 1.6% 20
21 2014 HEADLEE CALCULATION 2013 TAXABLE VALUE LOSSES x 2014 IRM 2014 TAXABLE VALUE ADDITIONS FOR NUMBERS OF OR HIGHER NO MILLAGE ROLLBACK BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTIONS: $2,972,081,580 - $42,657,347 x = $2,976,295,021 $3,042,748,950 - $81,764,170 = $2,960,984,780 = REAL PROPERTY ONLY: $2,748,382,830 - $2,129,847 x = $2,790,193,031 $2,840,748,950 - $48,833,370 = $2,791,915,580 =
22 PERSONAL PROPERTY EXEMPTIONS Exemption of PP will impact the Headlee calculation. The depreciation of existing assets mitigates the real property uncappings. Simply put, the depreciation of personal property assets offsets some of the increases in other properties. The erosion of the personal property roll will have a negative affect on the existing millages. 22
23 PERSONAL PROPERTY TAX Beginning in 2016, industrial personal property will begin phase out. All acquisitions prior to 2006 and after 2012 will be exempted. This will immediately remove an additional $11 million TV from the 2016 assessment roll. Each year thereafter, the oldest remaining year will be exempted until all industrial p/p is exempted after
24 PERSONAL PROPERTY PROJECTIONS AS OF 12/2/2013 COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL UTILITY TOTAL No. Taxable No. Taxable No. Taxable No. Taxable , ,656, ,816, ,871,710 2, ,345, , ,694, ,446, ,557,650 2, ,698, ,422, ,574, ,003, ,000, *? 140,816, ,574,530 14* 45,453, ,844, *? 142,224, ,686,107 14* 45,907, ,818, *? 143,646, ,228,718 14* 46,366, ,242, *? 145,083, ,489,111 14* 46,830, ,402, *? 146,534, ,308,264 14* 47,298, ,141, *? 147,999, ,857,481 14* 47,771, ,628, *? 149,479, ,944,733 14* 48,249, ,673, *? 150,974, ,609,592 14* 48,732, ,315, *? 152,484, * 49,219, ,703,420 24
25 HISTORY and PROJECTIONS
26 Five-Year State Equalized Valuation (SEV) HISTORY 12/11/2013 SEV is 50% of True Cash Value (Market Value) ACTUAL ESTIMATED PROJECTED 2010 for FY 2010/ for FY 2011/ for FY 2012/ for FY 2013/ for FY 2014/ for FY 2015/ for FY 2016/ for FY 2017/2018 Commercial & Industrial 1,197,856,300 1,022,625, ,809, ,516, ,061, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 Personal Property 220,466, ,678, ,345, ,698, ,000, ,800, ,800, ,200,000 Total Non-Residential Property $1,418,323,250 $1,243,303,690 $1,149,155,140 $1,117,215,300 $1,122,061,050 $1,143,800,000 $1,154,800,000 $1,180,200,000 Total Non-Residential as % of Total 42.7% 40.6% 38.2% 36.0% 33.6% 32.3% 31.2% 30.4% Non-Residential Real Change from Previous -8.3% -12.3% -7.6% -2.8% 0.4% 1.9% 1.0% 2.2% Year Residential 1,902,861,350 1,820,618,900 1,855,175,200 1,982,518,310 2,217,495,900 2,400,000,000 2,550,000,000 2,700,000,000 TOTAL SEV $3,321,184,600 $3,063,922,590 $3,004,330,340 $3,099,733,610 $3,339,556,950 $3,543,800,000 $3,704,800,000 $3,880,200,000 Change from Previous Year -11.2% -7.7% -1.9% 3.18% 7.74% 6.1% 4.5% 4.7% % Change by Category ACTUAL ESTIMATED PROJECTED 2010 for FY 2010/ for FY 2011/ for FY 2012/ for FY 2013/ for FY 2014/ for FY 2015/ for FY 2016/ for FY 2017/2018 Commercial & Industrial -8.8% -14.6% -9.2% -3.8% 3.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.6% Residential -5.4% -4.3% 1.9% 6.9% 11.9% 8.2% 6.3% 5.9% Total Real Property -8.3% -8.3% -2.1% 3.3% 9.1% 6.5% 5.1% 5.0% Personal Property 3.3% 0.1% -0.2% 1.5% -9.7% 0.9% -4.4% 0.2% TOTAL SEV -11.2% -7.7% -1.9% 3.18% 7.74% 6.1% 4.5% 4.7% 26
27 Five-Year Taxable Value HISTORY ACTUAL ESTIMATED PROJECTED 2010 for FY 2010/ for FY 2011/ for FY 2012/ for FY 2013/ for FY 2014/ for FY 2015/ for FY 2016/ for FY 2017/2018 Commercial & Industrial 1,121,427, ,935, ,883, ,546, ,312, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 Personal Property 220,466, ,678, ,345, ,698, ,000, ,800, ,800, ,200,000 Total Non-Residential Property $1,341,894,640 $1,197,613,610 $1,111,228,450 $1,079,245,070 $1,064,312,780 $1,081,800,000 $1,089,800,000 $1,107,200,000 Total Non-Residential as % of Total 41.9% 40.2% 38.1% 36.3% 35.0% 34.5% 33.7% 33.2% Non-Residential Real Change from Previous -6.6% -10.8% -7.2% -2.9% -1.4% 1.6% 0.7% 1.6% Year Residential 1,862,673,780 1,781,997,870 1,809,105,200 1,892,836,510 1,978,436,170 2,057,600,000 2,140,000,000 2,225,000,000 TOTAL Taxable Value $3,204,568,420 $2,979,611,480 $2,920,333,650 $2,972,081,580 $3,042,748,950 $3,139,400,000 $3,229,800,000 $3,332,200,000 LOSS PROVISION FOR Board of Review, Michigan Tax Tribunal cases, etc. $20,000,000 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 NET TAX BASE $3,022,748,950 $3,119,400,000 $3,209,800,000 $3,312,200,000 Change from Previous Year -9.9% -7.0% -2.0% 1.8% 2.4% 3.2% 2.9% 3.2% MI Consumer Price Index -0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 2.4% 1.6% 2.5% Est 2.5% Est 2.5% Est % Change by Category 2010 for FY 2010/ for FY 2011/ for FY 2012/ for FY 2013/ for FY 2014/ for FY 2015/ for FY 2016/ for FY 2017/2018 Commercial & Industrial -1.0% -12.9% -8.8% -4.0% 0.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% Residential -16.8% -4.3% 1.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Total Real Property -11.5% -7.5% -2.1% 1.8% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% Personal Property 4.8% 0.1% -0.2% 1.5% -9.7% 0.9% -4.4% 0.2% TOTAL Taxable Value -10.5% -7.0% -2.0% 1.8% 2.38% 3.2% 2.9% 3.2% 27
28 Michigan Tax Tribunal 28
29 MTT Case Disposition 1200 Dockets 1000 Parcel Years VTD OPEN 29
30 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 MTT Case Disposition Orig Taxable Value $998 Millions $600 $500 TV Loss $454 $469 $522 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 $ % $13 $ % $ % $ % $ % $ YTD 15.3% $80 OPEN $118 30
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